yzerman19 Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 Not going to do the whole walk, but as of this minute: Fargo DU vs WCHA champ Lowell vs UND Cincy UMD vs AHA champ (AF) Minny vs Notre Dame Providence WMU vs PSU Union vs Providence NH Harvard vs OSU BU vs Cornell Only swapped 5 and 7 (Minny and Union for attendance) as well as 9 and 11 (UND host) Quote
Rebel_Sioux Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 1 hour ago, farce poobah said: Playing with Pairwise Predictor ... With a split in Minneapolis, I think we are in. If we lose two, we might still get in if there are not too many upsets elsewhere. Key risks to UND's at-large bid: * If BC wins Hockey East, they are in. Can't get them in without winning HE. * If Quinnipiac wins ECAC, they are in. Also can't get them in as an at large with a loss. * In the Big Ten, if both Penn State and Ohio State win playin games, then if Minnesota loses its semifinal, then an autobid goes to a team currently behind us (WI, PSU, tOSU). Yeah I ran those scenarios too. The Big Ten can wreck havoc on the pairwise with those extra games. Quote
siouxfaninseattle Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 I ran a bunch of scenarios. There are a few scenarios where UND does not make the tournament, but it looks very good for making the tournament. With one win, they are in. With two losses the chances are still pretty good. A lot of underdogs would need to win their conference tournaments to keep UND out. 2 Quote
franchise Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 7 hours ago, farce poobah said: Key risks to UND's at-large bid: * If BC wins Hockey East, they are in. Can't get them in without winning Moy tweeted a scenario showing them in with a title game loss Quote
farce poobah Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 1 hour ago, franchise said: Moy tweeted a scenario showing them in with a title game loss Sure, and I wasn't clear in expressing myself. I agree there are scenarios that get BC in without them winning Hockey East. Those scenarios are also good for UND, because they involve all the favorites winning their league tournaments. What I couldn't find was a scenario with BC in as an at large bid and UND out. 2 Quote
farce poobah Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 7 hours ago, Rebel_Sioux said: Yeah I ran those scenarios too. The Big Ten can wreck havoc on the pairwise with those extra games. Plus the fact they have so many bubble teams this year. 1 Quote
franchise Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, farce poobah said: Sure, and I wasn't clear in expressing myself. I agree there are scenarios that get BC in without them winning Hockey East. Those scenarios are also good for UND, because they involve all the favorites winning their league tournaments. What I couldn't find was a scenario with BC in as an at large bid and UND out. I see what you're saying Quote
rhenry8439 Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 Hasn't the Winner of the NCHC frozen faceoff gone on and lost the first game of their Regional every year? Quote
SJHovey Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 I know the primary issue is getting us into the tournament. But has anyone checked to see how high we can get if we win the Frozen Faceoff? I can't get us higher than 7th. I can get us past Union, but not BU. Edit: I should add that I ask this question because the CHN probability matrix shows that 1.2% of the outcomes have us higher than 7, but I haven't found them just playing around. Quote
cberkas Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 30 minutes ago, rhenry8439 said: Hasn't the Winner of the NCHC frozen faceoff gone on and lost the first game of their Regional every year? Yes Quote
yelo09 Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 9 hours ago, Rebel_Sioux said: Yeah I ran those scenarios too. The Big Ten can wreck havoc on the pairwise with those extra games. gawd I hate the big 10/6 .... however I can't imagine a loss to the #1 team will hurt us too bad but ... then the 3rd place game carry's huge weight in pairwise with a win Quote
siouxforcefans Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 According to CHN's twitter: "We're re-running The Matrix b/c of glitch found affecting NCHC. Only major difference is North Dakota's chances of missing the NCAAs <5% now" 3 Quote
InHeavenThereIsNoBeer Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 I'm curious what our odds would've been had we needed 3 games to beat SCSU. Quote
UNDBIZ Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 One win and we're in. Barring that, we'd really like to see Quinnipiac and Boston College lose. One interesting thing I've found running various scenarios is the B1G can have anywhere from 1 to 4 teams in the tournament. Quote
SJHovey Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, UNDBIZ said: One win and we're in. Barring that, we'd really like to see Quinnipiac and Boston College lose. One interesting thing I've found running various scenarios is the B1G can have anywhere from 1 to 4 teams in the tournament. Yeah, I think it will be interesting after the Thursday games once Jim Dahl and the guys at CHN and USCHO crunch the numbers to see where everyone stands going into Friday. I have to believe that if both PSU and OSU crap the bed on Thursday and lose that we have to be as close to in as you can get without actually being there. 1 Quote
Popular Post Oxbow6 Posted March 13, 2017 Popular Post Posted March 13, 2017 1 hour ago, siouxforcefans said: According to CHN's twitter: "We're re-running The Matrix b/c of glitch found affecting NCHC. Only major difference is North Dakota's chances of missing the NCAAs <5% now" Those odds resemble my chances most nights with my wife..........<5%. .................. 7 Quote
sioux rube Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said: Those odds resemble my chances most nights with my wife..........<5%. .................. Better than my .5%. 2 Quote
yelo09 Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 5% should be a firesale on West Region tickets then Quote
Oxbow6 Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, SIOUXELEVENS said: We all on the less then 5 % That's why my "daily" Cialas last 3 weeks............... Quote
Siouxphan27 Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 23 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said: Those odds resemble my chances most nights with my wife..........<5%. .................. Have you tried turning off the lights for her sake? 1 Quote
Oxbow6 Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, Siouxphan27 said: Have you tried turning off the lights for her sake? See everyone at Scheels Arena.......with your clothes on. 1 Quote
Siouxphan27 Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said: See everyone at Scheels Arena.......with your clothes on. I was going to suggest investing in some blackout shades and insist on watching a Ryan Reynolds movie every evening....might bump you up to 6 or 7%. 1 Quote
bigskyvikes Posted March 13, 2017 Posted March 13, 2017 MSU loss is a dead issue! MSU loss is a dead issue! @MafiaMan Quote
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