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2020 Dumpster Fire (Enter at your own risk)

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It’s a virus. It will run its course and take its share. To quote the old TV commercial, “You can pay me now or you can pay me later.” 

I say open it all up. Not all will, and they'll damage their local economies (and citizenry*) further. Their choice, But that local control also means local responsibilities — don’t go looking for a Federal bail out for a local decision. 

I say that because I don’t see a useful trustworthy vaccine before mid-2021. (I will not take any of the first three batches.) 

 

Two million, eight hundred thousand Americans, yes, 2,800,000 die annually because ... nature. Welcome to nature. We are not in control. 

 

*The physical and mental health damage done already is near incalculable. ER walk-in heart attacks down 40%; ER walk-in stroke down 50%! Missed cancer screens. The “second wave” will be when all those untreated issues can no longer be ignored and show up to the doctor when treatment is not viable. 

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Now three new symptoms: diarrhea, nausea, runny nose. 

https://www.the-sun.com/news/1047021/cdc-three-new-coronavirus-symptoms-diarrhea-runny-nose/

A while back I said I went through ORD in mid-January and was as sick as I’ve ever been two weeks later to the day for about 36 hours. Coincidence? My symptoms? Nausea, diarrhea, chills, fever, fatigue, body aches ... just like in the CDCs updated list. 

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Data

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states  

Tests done each day ramping up. At steady positive rate new cases would ... go up.

But the data also shows since about June 14 the positive rate is going up. 

And the incubation is about 14 days we are told.

So what happened about 14 days before June 14 that may have kicked up the spread? Hmmm ... were there some large gatherings or something? 

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32 minutes ago, The Sicatoka said:

Data

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states  

Tests done each day ramping up. At steady positive rate new cases would ... go up.

But the data also shows since about June 14 the positive rate is going up. 

And the incubation is about 14 days we are told.

So what happened about 14 days before June 14 that may have kicked up the spread? Hmmm ... were there some large gatherings or something? 

If you are implying that the protests are the cause, that doesn't make much sense based on the states that are jumping.  The better correlation is with states that reopened early.  The virus transmission appears to be high for indoor, close-proximity locations (e.g. bars) not outdoor gatherings with face masks.

 

edit - NBER working paper https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

The take-home message:

Likewise, while it is possible that the protests caused an increase in the spread of COVID-19 among those who attended the protests, we demonstrate that the protests had little effect on the spread of COVID19 for the entire population of the counties with protests during the more than three weeks following protest onset. In most cases, the estimated longer-run effect (post-21 days) was negative, though not statistically distinguishable from zero.

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3 hours ago, The Sicatoka said:

It’s a virus. It will run its course and take its share. To quote the old TV commercial, “You can pay me now or you can pay me later.” 

I say open it all up. Not all will, and they'll damage their local economies (and citizenry*) further. Their choice, But that local control also means local responsibilities — don’t go looking for a Federal bail out for a local decision. 

I say that because I don’t see a useful trustworthy vaccine before mid-2021. (I will not take any of the first three batches.) 

 

Two million, eight hundred thousand Americans, yes, 2,800,000 die annually because ... nature. Welcome to nature. We are not in control. 

 

*The physical and mental health damage done already is near incalculable. ER walk-in heart attacks down 40%; ER walk-in stroke down 50%! Missed cancer screens. The “second wave” will be when all those untreated issues can no longer be ignored and show up to the doctor when treatment is not viable. 

We wasted trillions of dollars and thousands of lives because some radical assholes managed to pull off a once-in-a-generation attack on the country that killed 3,000 people.  Not doing something because people die each year anyway is a hollow argument.  

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3 minutes ago, wxman91 said:

We wasted trillions of dollars and thousands of lives because some radical assholes managed to pull off a once-in-a-generation attack on the country that killed 3,000 people.  Not doing something because people die each year anyway is a hollow argument.  

One was a human attack; one was nature. 

Or are you saying COVID was a human attack. 

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Just now, The Sicatoka said:

One was a human attack; one was nature. 

Or are you saying COVID was a human attack. 

People are dead.  Why is the distinction important when both can be fought?

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8 minutes ago, wxman91 said:

If you are implying that the protests are the cause, that doesn't make much sense based on the states that are jumping.  The better correlation is with states that reopened early.  The virus transmission appears to be high for indoor, close-proximity locations (e.g. bars) not outdoor gatherings with face masks.

Protests.

Memorial Day.

Reopening.

The virus will get it’s share. Nature always wins. 

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2 minutes ago, The Sicatoka said:

Protests.

Memorial Day.

Reopening.

The virus will get it’s share. Nature always wins. 

Why isn't it winning in other countries?

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1 minute ago, wxman91 said:

People are dead.  Why is the distinction important when both can be fought?

The viruses were here first and will be here after we are gone.

Herd immunity is the best weapon we have, a well developed human immune system. But it comes at a price, as does any war. 

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1 minute ago, wxman91 said:

Why isn't it winning in other countries?

India. Brazil. China. Russia. All are having reappearance. 

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3 minutes ago, The Sicatoka said:

India. Brazil. China. Russia. All are having reappearance. 

I trust nothing out of China/Russia.  Brazil is in a league of their own.

How about Germany/UK/Canada?

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14 minutes ago, The Sicatoka said:

The viruses were here first and will be here after we are gone.

Herd immunity is the best weapon we have, a well developed human immune system. But it comes at a price, as does any war. 

What price is too large?    

Mayo Clinic:

Even if infection with the COVID-19 virus creates long-lasting immunity, a large number of people would have to become infected to reach the herd immunity threshold. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic. If many people become sick with COVID-19 at once, the health care system could quickly become overwhelmed. This amount of infection could also lead to serious complications and millions of deaths, especially among older people and those who have chronic conditions.

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11 minutes ago, wxman91 said:

How about Germany/UK/Canada?

Sweden. No lockdown and lower death rate per capita. 

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17 minutes ago, wxman91 said:

What price is too large?    

Mayo Clinic:

Even if infection with the COVID-19 virus creates long-lasting immunity, a large number of people would have to become infected to reach the herd immunity threshold. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic. If many people become sick with COVID-19 at once, the health care system could quickly become overwhelmed. This amount of infection could also lead to serious complications and millions of deaths, especially among older people and those who have chronic conditions.

Given everything in this virus situation to date, you lost me at experts estimate.

And what of the recent CDC admission that actual infections may be as much as ten times the reported total. We could be closer to herd immunity than we know or yet understand. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN23W2PU 

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After this year are we as a society going to treat this exactly like we treat the flu?  

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14 minutes ago, The Sicatoka said:

Sweden. No lockdown and lower death rate per capita. 

Sweden has 5200 deaths and cases are still climbing.  Norway has 249 deaths and new cases are in the teens.  Denmark has 604 deaths.  

Sweden's GDP was flat in Q1, while Norway and Denmark were around -2%.

Q2 estimates for Sweden are -6%.  

 

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19 minutes ago, The Sicatoka said:

Given everything in this virus situation to date, you lost me at experts estimate.

Better than what came out of the White House.

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6 minutes ago, wxman91 said:

Better than what came out of the White House.

Drs. Fauci And Birx are some of the experts of question based on past and present track records. 

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8 minutes ago, The Sicatoka said:

Drs. Fauci And Birx are some of the experts of question based on past and present track records. 

The experts did better than the man in charge.

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/timeline-president-donald-trump-changing-statements-on-coronavirus/

 

Feb. 26: 58 confirmed cases in U.S. 

The 15 cases in U.S. "within a couple days is going to be down close to zero"

  • "I want you to understand something that shocked me when I saw it that — and I spoke with Dr. Fauci on this, and I was really amazed, and I think most people are amazed to hear it: The flu, in our country, kills from 25,000 people to 69,000 people a year. That was shocking to me. And, so far, if you look at what we have with the 15 people and their recovery, one is — one is pretty sick but hopefully will recover, but the others are in great shape. But think of that: 25,000 to 69,000. ... "And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done," the president said during a Coronavirus Task Force Press briefing at the White House.

March 10: 1,300 confirmed cases in U.S. 

"Just stay calm. It will go away"

  • "Well, this was unexpected. This was something that came out of China, and it hit us and many other countries. You look at the numbers; I see the numbers with just by watching you folks. I see it — it's over 100 different countries. And it hit the world. And we're prepared, and we're doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away," the president said on Capitol Hill after meeting with Republican senators

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I would hope "experts" know more than Donald Trump about novel infectious diseases.

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39 minutes ago, UND1983 said:

I would hope "experts" know more than Donald Trump about novel infectious diseases.

And I would hope that citizens would listen to the experts, but here we are.

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27 minutes ago, wxman91 said:

And I would hope that citizens would listen to the experts, but here we are.

Which citizens, exactly, are you criticizing?

I think there are plenty of us who have embraced #factsnotfear and are living our lives, working, shopping, eating, recreating, getting haircuts, etc., but who understand the risks and are managing them effectively. Some of us will eventually test positive, some will get sick and yes, some will die.

And, perhaps shockingly to some, there are countless others who have thrown caution to the wind and are engaging in excessively risky behaviors. Many of them may test positive, many may get sick. Yet...get ready for this...some will still not get sick.

The only common denominator is that none of us are willing to "listen" to people with a perverse desire to suppress human nature and stifle normal behaviors for uncertain objectives and who can't seem to embrace the simple fact that one of the most important "sciences" at play here is statistics.

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6 hours ago, wxman91 said:

Sweden has 5200 deaths and cases are still climbing.  Norway has 249 deaths and new cases are in the teens.  Denmark has 604 deaths.  

Sweden's GDP was flat in Q1, while Norway and Denmark were around -2%.

Q2 estimates for Sweden are -6%.  

 

There you go again.  Spewing facts.  That's not going to go well for you. Expect a backlash.

 

In the meantime, wear your facemasks and social distance.  Seriously.  

 

Science always wins in the end. 

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21 hours ago, UND1983 said:

It's an election year....for the office of President.  I stated back in March, "I really wish this wasn't an election year".  Everything is skewed because of it.  

Then again, what a coincidence this goes down during the year of our mostly hotly contested, polarizing election possibly ever.  

Damn you deep state, please go back to where you came from and take the virus with you. 
 

Quite the rally the right wingers had in Olympia!

https://youtu.be/PQfOzKjmEU0

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