Moo U Dumpster Fire Thread

[geaux_sioux]

We were 18 pt favorites last weekend and look what happened. Throw in the fact that we offer scholarships and this is a rivalry game and the spread becomes meaningless.

[Siouxperman8]

We were 18 pt favorites last weekend and look what happened. Throw in the fact that we offer scholarships and this is a rivalry game and the spread becomes meaningless.

When will you learn that this isn't a rivalry.  Just because it fits everybody's definition of a rivalry doesn't make it one per some.

[UND92]

Last week we were 1 goal line fumble away from going up 28-0 in the 1st Half.  With a very young team.  Lots of excitement after the WYO game and a Huge game against the defending champs this week, I think the kids just lost their composure and forgot that they had a 2nd half to play.  I look forward to a hard fought game this week and may the best GREEN/WHITE team win.

[Sioux94]

I'm guessing Jacksonville State was given about those same odds against #6 Auburn last week. 

[Shawn-O]

Massey is giving UND a 2% chance at winning this game (the lowest of ANY remaining games on the schedule) and Sagarin has the Bison winning by something around 27.  Both systems take into account past opponents, data, etc.  So with those two facts in front of you...what is your definition of "good shot" at downing the Bison?  And, what data do you have to support that definition?

[jimdahl]

Massey is giving UND a 2% chance at winning this game (the lowest of ANY remaining games on the schedule) and Sagarin has the Bison winning by something around 27.  Both systems take into account past opponents, data, etc.

You have to be careful with computer rankings this time of year. If you were to just go by results to date in 2015, most reasonable systems would say UND is the better team. But that's probably not right, so all of the rankings guys bootstrap with historical results. So, what you're quoting is something resembling the probability of last year's NDSU team + 2 games of this year's beating a similarly constructed UND team.

That's definitely more useful and overall more predictive than starting each season by assuming everyone is equal, but can't really be counted on for individual predictions, particularly if there's reason to think a team's quality has changed. I think most UND fans who claim there's a better than 2% chance of winning are optimistic that the teams' respective qualities have changed since last year.

You might not agree with that optimism, and indeed it might be wrong. But citing those models as disproving it is incorrect.

[SportsFan13]

You have to be careful with computer rankings this time of year. If you were to just go by results to date in 2015, most reasonable systems would say UND is the better team. But that's probably not right, so all of the rankings guys bootstrap with historical results. So, what you're quoting is something resembling the probability of last year's NDSU team + 2 games of this year's beating a similarly constructed UND team.

That's definitely more useful and overall more predictive than starting each season by assuming everyone is equal, but can't really be counted on for individual predictions, particularly if there's reason to think a team's quality has changed. I think most UND fans who claim there's a better than 2% chance of winning are optimistic that the teams' respective qualities have changed since last year.

You might not agree with that optimism, and indeed it might be wrong. But citing those models as disproving it is incorrect.

That is funny.  Most reasonable systems would say UND is the better team.

Please name even one?

 

[UND1983]

That is funny.  Most reasonable systems would say UND is the better team.

Please name even one?

 

Because they are based on this year's results only.  Which are obviously skewed and not representative of strength yet, either.  If you use a system that goes off last year then you get those results.

[UNDBIZ]

That is funny.  Most reasonable systems would say UND is the better team.

Please name even one?

 

Seriously?  UND is 2-0.  Ndsu is 1-1.  The combined record of the teams UND has faced is 1-3.  The combined record of the teams ndsu has faced is 1-3, with the 1 win coming against ndsu.  Going just by the results of the 2015 season (which is what Jim said), both UND and ndsu would have started at the same point (0-0), and UND would show up as better in a computer ranking for being 2-0.  That's why computer rankings factor in last year's performance and it's also why you don't use computer rankings this early in the season.

[siouxfan512]

That is funny.  Most reasonable systems would say UND is the better team.

Please name even one?

 

Don't argue Jim on the numbers game, you'll just embarrass yourself; and don't overlook the point he was trying to make. Putting too much stock in computer stats this early in the year doesn't carry a great deal of weight.

[JohnboyND7]

That is funny.  Most reasonable systems would say UND is the better team.

Please name even one?

 

i believe if you had aa conversation with the guys who make the models, they'll tell you that early in the year... They are not particularly effective.  

A model of this year would probably show NDSU as inferior. At least it should as of right now.

[SportsFan13]

Because they are based on this year's results only.  Which are obviously skewed and not representative of strength yet, either.  If you use a system that goes off last year then you get those results.

Sagarin has a way to "slice it" that looks at current results and also a more holistic approach to results.  Both paint a similar result.

[Oxbow6]

Line now at UND +27.5.  Smart money coming on UND to cover the original +30.

[molden]

 

I predict a very close game.  Not sure how to reply on your board.

Edited September 16, 2015 by molden

[UNDBIZ]

 

It's been messing up every once in a while since the latest update, especially when it comes to quoting another post.

[jimdahl]

It's been messing up every once in a while since the latest update, especially when it comes to quoting another post.

Some report that deleting quotes can be a little strange in some browsers. A workaround is that hitting the source button in the upper left to switch from rich text editor to code gets you to the raw source that you can then delete (or modify if you're comfortable with the code). Then you hit the button again to switch back.

[molden]

There, it's working better now (reply option).  Thanks

I think that it will be a close game.  The Bison defense is not as dominant now, and there isn't a dominant back.  It will come down to turnovers.

Edited September 16, 2015 by molden

[Hayduke]

Massey is giving UND a 2% chance at winning this game (the lowest of ANY remaining games on the schedule) and Sagarin has the Bison winning by something around 27.  Both systems take into account past opponents, data, etc.  So with those two facts in front of you...what is your definition of "good shot" at downing the Bison?  And, what data do you have to support that definition?

UND was an 18 point underdog to the Pokes. That's about all I got.  That and a gut feeling. 

Next time, do I have to have "data" to post a personal opinion to my team's fansite?  

One thing I know would be fact.  If the college of home economics beats UND, at least coach k will have done something Bohl has failed to do...

[CMSioux]

http://www.grandforksherald.com/sports/und-football/3840444-ndsu-ups-campus-security-und-ndsu-football-game

Seems like they are concerned about the wrong student body - last I checked it was their homecoming royalty that was vandalizing UND and their football players that was flashing children at the mall. and making the midnight dash out of Best Buy. Doing something to make a statue of a bi-zon look stupid would just be redundant. 

[nd1sufan]

http://www.grandforksherald.com/sports/und-football/3840444-ndsu-ups-campus-security-und-ndsu-football-game

Seems like they are concerned about the wrong student body - last I checked it was their homecoming royalty that was vandalizing UND and their football players that was flashing children at the mall. and making the midnight dash out of Best Buy. Doing something to make a statue of a bi-zon look stupid would just be redundant. 

Well, they may be stationing their extra security at the wrong location. With the possibility of some of the UND faculty coming to town, perhaps they should be posting the security at the day care center at the Family Life Center at NDSU. Those little kids may need extra protection.

[Vegas_Sioux]

Games aren't played on paper.  Nerd stat data doesn't score touchdowns or make tackles.  

Thanks for trolling.  

 I believe the statement is fantasy football is Dungeons & Dragons for guys that beat up the kids that played dungeons and dragons. 

[jdub27]

So again has a way to "slice it" that looks at current results and also a more holistic approach to results.  Both paint a similar result.

Sagarin himself admits his model is not yet well connected and therfore not accurate. It's still feeding last year's data to compensate.

[bison73]

There, it's working better now (reply option).  Thanks

I think that it will be a close game.  The Bison defense is not as dominant now, and there isn't a dominant back.  It will come down to turnovers.

When somebody starts quoting Sagarin and some of those others I just move on. Why they put so much stock in those is funny. I guess it makes them feel better about who they root for.

[CMSioux]

Well, they may be stationing their extra security at the wrong location. With the possibility of some of the UND faculty coming to town, perhaps they should be posting the security at the day care center at the Family Life Center at NDSU. Those little kids may need extra protection.

The difference is what I mentioned actually happened. It's unfortunate your life is so empty you have to prowl here and "protect" SUs dignity - it's a UND fan site we trash talk about other schools - no need to defend every post it just demonstrates insecurity. 

[siouxfan512]

Just posted this over on Bisonville. Kind of my assessment on the game. 

 

A couple things to keep in mind about why this is a big game. It is not just the renewal of a in-state rivalry game with a lot of history behind it. That part is fun, and adds to the interest, but lets looks at the game for what it is. Many people on this board (Bisonville) have said this is just another game, and to a point they are very correct.

It is just another game the Bison don't want, or expect, to lose. Just like they wouldn't want, or expect, to lose to any other team on their schedule. That's where the program has gone over the past several year, NDSU just doesn't expect to lose. Doesn't matter if it is UND, UNI, K-State, etc. BUT with a loss to MT already in the books, the team really does not want to drop a game, especially a game that should be a win (regardless of it being against UND). 1-2 would just not be acceptable with where that program is at, and would certainly put more pressure on the team going forward.

For UND, there is obviously a ton of hype being built up about the rivalry, way more in the GF media than the Fargo media, because this is a bigger game for UND. UND has way more to gain in this match up. Even if this wasn't NDSU, it would still be a big match up. If we had Coastal Carolina on the schedule, it would be huge. Any time your program has an opportunity to play the best, your team needs to be pumped about it (If you ever want to be the best, you need to play the best). From an FBS level, we saw that a few weeks ago, when the Gophers got to play TCU, in what was an entertaining game where the Goofs just killed themselves.

Ultimately, there are rivalry implication, there could be some recruiting implications; but overall the teams should, and probably are, prepare for this game like they would any other game. NDSU needs to go out and play their game, just like they did against Weber. UND needs to go out, and understand they are playing top tier competition, execute the game plan and limit mistakes.

Win, Loss, Route or be Routed ... Saturday should be fun.