Remainder of 2020 Spring Season and Potential Playoffs.

[Hammersmith]

2 minutes ago, siouxfan512 said:

Not sure how you are so confident UND would be a 4 seed; I would be surprised. Maybe that comes from years of UND not being ranked up near the top, maybe its because this Spring season is so strange. UND (not by their own choice) has done nothing in the last month. We had a nice start to the season, got beat by NDSU and have been practicing ever since.

-NDSU or SDSU get a spot

-Weber will likely get one, though from what I have read they have been less than impressive as a 5-0 team and could easily get bounced in the playoffs.

-Sam Houston will get one.

-JMU and Delaware are both undefeated, but have a combined 1 win against a ranked opponent. This is the only spot you could make the argument for UND, is we have beat multiple ranked opponents, and our only loss is to the Bison. As I am typing this, I also see that both of those team currently only have 4 wins as well, but Delaware still plays Villanova this weekend and James Madison plays Richmond. I would think UND would need both JMU and Delaware to lose, but maybe that doesn't matter based on strength of schedule.

Would it help us if the Bison won this weekend? Maybe, in the eyes of the committee. Could it not make a difference in getting a seed; again, maybe, in the eyes of the committee. Tough to know what they will do or think given how strange this year is. I would be ecstatic if we were a seed, purely to solidify home field advantage, but I won't count on it either. Maybe a little of that MVFC love could finally play in our favor.

Regardless of what happens, we are in! Time to put in a strong showing and get some playoff wins. I don't want to add any more memories to the Richmond/Nicholls St category.

I don't think Weber is as much of a lock as you think. They played Idaho St twice, and barely squeaked by UCD, SUU & NAU. I could easily see the committee putting UND at 4 and Weber at 5. (They actually did already in their first(and only) mid-season ranking.) Weber's situation for a seed is the same as Missouri St's for a bid: they haven't done anything bad, but they haven't done anything impressive either.

[siouxfan512]

3 minutes ago, Hammersmith said:

I don't think Weber is as much of a lock as you think. They played Idaho St twice, and barely squeaked by UCD, SUU & NAU. I could easily see the committee putting UND at 4 and Weber at 5. (They actually did already in their first(and only) mid-season ranking.) Weber's situation for a seed is the same as Missouri St's for a bid: they haven't done anything bad, but they haven't done anything impressive either.

You clearly have watched more closely than I have. I didn't realize they played ISU twice, but I did read Herder's comments that their wins hadn't been overly impressive. Sunday should be interesting.

[The Sicatoka]

2 minutes ago, Hammersmith said:

Weber's situation for a seed is the same as Missouri St's for a bid: they haven't done anything bad, but they haven't done anything impressive either.

So you're saying they could have really used ...

"... a quality loss ... " (c)UNI 

 

Somebody had to say it.  

[dmksioux]

9 minutes ago, siouxfan512 said:

You clearly have watched more closely than I have. I didn't realize they played ISU twice, but I did read Herder's comments that their wins hadn't been overly impressive. Sunday should be interesting.

Also, Sam has to play Incarnate Word.  Anything can happen in the Southland where shootout type games are the norm.  

[Hammersmith]

2 minutes ago, The Sicatoka said:

So you're saying they could have really used ...

"... a quality loss ... " (c)UNI 

 

Somebody had to say it.  

You joke, but it actually would have helped either team's situation. MSU would look a lot better if they had done ANYTHING against Oklahoma(48-0) or NDSU(25-0). Same would be true if Weber had a single score loss to an FBS or top-5 FCS school in addition to their mediocre resume. At least it would show that they faced tough competition and did SOMETHING.

 

Of course, if this year's selection committee emphasizes negative criteria rather than positive*, then my thoughts are out the window.

*IOW, positive means a good win has more value than a loss. So UND's win vs. SDSU helps UND more than the loss to NDSU hurts. Negative criteria would mean any loss hurts more than a mediocre win helps. So Weber's ISU win is more valuable than UND's loss to NDSU.

[geaux_sioux]

UND Football first season in teh Valley 

 

[Siouxperfan7]

1 hour ago, Hammersmith said:

I don't think Weber is as much of a lock as you think. They played Idaho St twice, and barely squeaked by UCD, SUU & NAU. I could easily see the committee putting UND at 4 and Weber at 5. (They actually did already in their first(and only) mid-season ranking.) Weber's situation for a seed is the same as Missouri St's for a bid: they haven't done anything bad, but they haven't done anything impressive either.

The one and only NCAA Championship Committee poll looked like this for the top 6

1.  JMU

2.  NDSU

3.  SDSU

4.  Sam Houston

5.  UND

6.  Weber St.

Since that poll came out on April 1st, JMU has not played a game, NDSU has gone 2-0, SDSU has not played a game, Sam Houston has gone 2-0 and UND has not played a game.  So a total of 3 games played by the top 5 teams.  Not much action.  Going into the last week, JMU plays #11 Richmond, NDSU and SDSU play each other, Sam Houston plays Incarnate Word, and UND does not play.

There is a good chance the loser of the NDSU/SDSU game drops out of the top 4 (but likely still in the playoffs).  I think UND has a great chance to get to be a top 4 seed.  Especially if SDSU loses since we beat them.

[Oxbow6]

[Hammersmith]

12 minutes ago, Siouxperfan7 said:

The one and only NCAA Championship Committee poll looked like this for the top 6

1.  JMU

2.  NDSU

3.  SDSU

4.  Sam Houston

5.  UND

6.  Weber St.

Since that poll came out on April 1st, JMU has not played a game, NDSU has gone 2-0, SDSU has not played a game, Sam Houston has gone 2-0 and UND has not played a game.  So a total of 3 games played by the top 5 teams.  Not much action.  Going into the last week, JMU plays #11 Richmond, NDSU and SDSU play each other, Sam Houston plays Incarnate Word, and UND does not play.

There is a good chance the loser of the NDSU/SDSU game drops out of the top 4 (but likely still in the playoffs).  I think UND has a great chance to get to be a top 4 seed.  Especially if SDSU loses since we beat them.

Exactly. I said UND #4 and Weber #5 because I think the loser of NDSU/SDSU will drop out of the seeding race. So maybe JMU, xDSU winner, & SHSU shift around a bit at 1-3, but UND slides safely into #4.

[SiouxFan100]

Would love to play su again in grand forks. 

[siouxfan512]

10 minutes ago, Hammersmith said:

Exactly. I said UND #4 and Weber #5 because I think the loser of NDSU/SDSU will drop out of the seeding race. So maybe JMU, xDSU winner, & SHSU shift around a bit at 1-3, but UND slides safely into #4.

This all makes way more sense than when I read your initial comment. I didn't realize how many cancellations there had been outside of The Valley. 

For conversational purposes, lets say JMU and SHSU both lose. Weber does not play this weekend. Either NDSU or SDSU will drop to 2 losses. Could UND be bumped as high as 2?

[siouxfan512]

Just now, SiouxFan100 said:

Would love to play su again in grand forks. 

Agreed, but I would just love to play them with a better game plan.

[AJS]

Thank you @Siouxperfan7 for the breakdown.

Being practical, there should be no reason that UND is not slotted at the #4 spot come Sunday. That would be a huge deal.

[Kab]

Where does ndsu end up if they lose this weekend

can und jump them?

[geaux_sioux]

1 minute ago, Kab said:

Where does ndsu end up if they lose this weekend

can und jump them?

If they lose we should jump them. Should.

[AJS]

Thinking out loud, but since the original rankings came out NDSU has gone 2-0 and SDSU has not played. I think it would be much cleaner for UND if NDSU beat SDSU this Saturday. Then UND has the head to head vs SDSU as well as 1 loss vs 2. There is zero argument for SDSU to be ahead of UND with an NDSU win. With the deserved reputation NDSU has as well as the head to head beatdown, it gets muddy if NDSU loses on Saturday. 

It's best for UND if NDSU beats SDSU this Saturday. 

 

[Siouxperfan7]

5 minutes ago, AJS said:

Thinking out loud, but since the original rankings came out NDSU has gone 2-0 and SDSU has not played. I think it would be much cleaner for UND if NDSU beat SDSU this Saturday. Then UND has the head to head vs SDSU as well as 1 loss vs 2. There is zero argument for SDSU to be ahead of UND with an NDSU win. With the deserved reputation NDSU has as well as the head to head beatdown, it gets muddy if NDSU loses on Saturday. 

It's best for UND if NDSU beats SDSU this Saturday. 

 

That being said, if NDSU were to lose and not be a seeded team, not win the conference for the first time in a decade, and end up finishing in 4th place in the MVFC....I'd be ok with that!! 

[JohnboyND7]

On 4/14/2021 at 9:23 AM, Kab said:

I was thinking the same thing

the UND ndsu rivalry will take off once we beat them

do you think ndsu students really care about the game with sdsu

the hype down south comes from the forum reporters and who cares what mcfooley thinks , he should move to South Dakota according to him

 

 

Can't speak to the current students, but the SDSU football/basketball games were typically a bigger deal than other games on the schedule. It helped that both teams were pretty good, easier to develop bad blood when battling for conference championships.

I'm sure it was in some ways manufactured at the beginning. But it turned into a pretty fun deal.

[gundy1124]

17 minutes ago, Siouxperfan7 said:

That being said, if NDSU were to lose and not be a seeded team, not win the conference for the first time in a decade, and end up finishing in 4th place in the MVFC....I'd be ok with that!! 

With the sad state of the season this spring is a toilet bowl.  It can rebound a little only if 16 teams play all playoff games leading to a title in which the winner plays all 4 playoff games.  

[AJS]

3 hours ago, AJS said:

Thank you @Siouxperfan7 for the breakdown.

Being practical, there should be no reason that UND is not slotted at the #4 spot come Sunday. That would be a huge deal.

Quick Google search of a few Bracketology's (Dom Izzo's and Sam Herder of Hero sports) and I've readjusted my expectations for UND getting a seed. Neither of them had SDSU as a seed either. Both also think Weber State will get one of them. 

[Siouxperfan7]

56 minutes ago, AJS said:

Quick Google search of a few Bracketology's (Dom Izzo's and Sam Herder of Hero sports) and I've readjusted my expectations for UND getting a seed. Neither of them had SDSU as a seed either. Both also think Weber State will get one of them. 

True. Pretty hard not to give the undefeated Big Sky Champion an autobid. 

[Sioux95]

I see Missouri State's AD is the selection committee chairman.  I don't think that would make SDSU vs NDSU a losers out game, but never know; might need a way to make room for MSU.

[Sioux94]

13 hours ago, Siouxperfan7 said:

The one and only NCAA Championship Committee poll looked like this for the top 6

1.  JMU

2.  NDSU

3.  SDSU

4.  Sam Houston

5.  UND

6.  Weber St.

 

I'd say 75% chance Weber jumps us since Weber won 2 games since then, even though neither impressive, but I think they will jump us since they are undefeated. That is where playing this weekend would have been a big deal.  If we won this weekend I'd say we pretty much lock at #4.   I'd say we end up #5 with the loser of the NDSU/SDSU game at #6.  This assumes JMU and Sam Houston win of course. 

If we end up #5 and Weber #4, if we would have to travel in the second round I wouldn't mind being in their bracket and getting another shot at Weber at their place. If we beat Weber and were in the semis, I'd say a good chance NDSU/SDSU whichever ends up at #6 would beat Sam Houston or or JMU, and potentially we could end up with a semi final game at home against one of the SU's? 

[Siouxperfan7]

So the more I think about it, the more I believe that even if Youngstown would have ended their season last Sunday giving UND and Missouri St. the chance to play this week, I don't think UND would have wanted to schedule a game against Missouri St this weekend.  At least they shouldn't have wanted to if they wanted to make the playoffs.  Think about it.  After Youngstown pulled the plug on their season (even if it was last Sunday) UND was co conference champions and basically a lock for the playoffs.  Only way that we don't make it is if we lose this weekend.  I'm sure Bubba, the rest of the coaches, and the players would have wanted to play this weekend to knock some rust off before a potential playoff game since we haven' played in a month.  But is all that worth the risk of throwing away a conference championship and a pretty much guaranteed playoff bid?  Probably not.

It sucks that we aren't playing this week and don't get a game to warm up before a potential playoff game.  But It is reassuring knowing that UND is the co Conference Champions of the Valley and will be likely playing a home playoff game on the 24th.  At the beginning of the season there is not one person that would have not taken that.   

[Nodak78]

After some thought, I'm satisfied being co-conference Champs, first year in the league.  Provided we made a good bid we will most likely host EWU.  I have a bitter taste from the last time we played them.  Bring them to GF and whip some a$$.