2020 Dumpster Fire (Enter at your own risk)

[Oxbow6]

1 hour ago, MafiaMan said:

Are we Italy yet?  I’m now unemployed and waiting patiently.  My work laptop was disconnected immediately after my meeting with HR and now I’m forced to use my 5G phone too.  Is it any wonder that my testicles, er, tentacles hurt?

Well if you are cleaning windshields on an off ramp of 35W for some spare change and someone runs you over we know what killed you.

[MafiaMan]

49 minutes ago, Cratter said:

Walzs experts are still projecting 20K deaths in Minnesota.

Well, many of those dead bodies will need transportation back across the border from Hudson, WI.  Willow River State Park had over 200 cars in it yesterday...the bulk of them with 10,000 Lakes on their license plates!

[MafiaMan]

14 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

Well if you are cleaning windshields on an off ramp of 35W for some spare change and someone runs you over we know what killed you.

So if I get run over and am dying on the asphalt and some gang-banger comes up and finishes me off with his Glock before taking my wallet, I’m a COVID-19 casualty until proven otherwise, right?

[petey23]

2 hours ago, Cratter said:

The middle range (20k) is definately the most likely.

Most likely certainly isn't the upper limit or the bottom limit.

The most likely amount of deaths in Minnesota according to their model is 20k.

Or to put it another way...their best guess is 20k Minnesota deaths.

 

So if you conflate the different models out there, Minnesota could account for 33% of the Covid 19 deaths in the United States.

Please remember that the models have a margin of error of 10000%

[Shawn-O]

1 hour ago, Cratter said:

Walzs experts are still projecting 20K deaths in Minnesota.

I'll take the under, big time.   

[Oxbow6]

25 minutes ago, Shawn-O said:

I'll take the under, big time.   

If you're talking 20000 restaurants jobs lost in MN that will never open their doors again or won't make after reopening.....I will take the over. Way over. Those people make up about 10% of the state's workforce.

[Vegas_Sioux]

8 hours ago, Shawn-O said:

I don't think the federal money will be able to save all the airlines, especially those outside the big four domestic.    

I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the big 4 doesn’t make it. Especially with 3 of them having issues with the 737 max recertification. 

[Shawn-O]

44 minutes ago, Vegas_Sioux said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the big 4 doesn’t make it. Especially with 3 of them having issues with the 737 max recertification. 

Southwest has by far the strongest balance sheet, we shall see.  

[Gma loves hockey]

7 hours ago, keikla said:

 

God help us if people choose to ignore the lockdown for the sake of Easter or Passover...

As I saw on Facebook.       The churches may be empty......BUT SO IS THE TOMB !!!          Lets take that as an example of what we are to do.

[UNDlaw80]

6 hours ago, jdub27 said:

Feel free to read the actual CDC guidelines I posted. If it is considered a contributing factor to the death, it will be listed as such. Which is how it has always been done. Just because people didn't pay attention before doesn't mean it was different.

Are we taking everything that everyone says in those press conferences as 100% accurate now?

 

NYC Covid deaths appear underrepresented due to a lack of testing on individuals who die at home.   Sobering twitter chain from the Chair of NYC Council health committee.  It lends credence to what keikla is experiencing :

-On an average day before this crisis there were 20-25 deaths at home in NYC. Now in the midst of this pandemic the number is 200-215 daily. 

-Early  in this crisis people who died at home were swabbed , and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home.

-Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. 

 

 

[UNDBIZ]

53 minutes ago, UNDlaw80 said:

 

NYC Covid deaths appear underrepresented due to a lack of testing on individuals who die at home.   Sobering twitter chain from the Chair of NYC Council health committee.  It lends credence to what keikla is experiencing :

-On an average day before this crisis there were 20-25 deaths at home in NYC. Now in the midst of this pandemic the number is 200-215 daily. 

-Early  in this crisis people who died at home were swabbed , and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home.

-Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. 

Certainly some of them likely died at home of covid. Is it not also probable a lot of them were too afraid to go to the hospital for other ailments under the current circumstances though? And is it not also probable overdoses are increasing with the increased poverty and loneliness? I also find it likely someone suffering a stroke or heart attack, who would've previously been saved by their coworkers or friends, are now dying alone at home.

[Kab]

I feel sorry for the people of NY

their secretary of health used the race card when Trump said no more travel from China and she told people to go to a parade and be with people

they used that card 1 too many times and it’s killing people

you never see her on TV anymore

im sure other countries brought it in too, not just China 

here’s hoping this is over soon for them 

[BarnWinterSportsEngelstad]

Anyone remember the flu?

[UNDlaw80]

1 hour ago, UNDBIZ said:

Certainly some of them likely died at home of covid. Is it not also probable a lot of them were too afraid to go to the hospital under the current circumstances though? And is it not also probable overdoses are increasing with the increased poverty and loneliness? I also find it likely someone suffering a stroke or heart attack, who would've previously been saved by their coworkers or friends, are now dying alone at home.

 

Of course not every death is due to Covid, yet it doesn't nullify that fatalities are being under-reported.       

Interestingly the 'death at home' situation underscores the adverse effects Covid has on health and safety infrastructures beyond hospital settings.  NYC firefighters, first respondents, police, paramedics, etc. are all infected and operating at reduced levels.  Completely unsustainable.  Yet we have mental midgets (I'm looking in your direction de Blasio) advocating NYC be opened up right now?  Yea ok, walk into a fire department and tell them that.  The potential health ramifications of eliminating social distancing in NY at this time could very well lead to a breakdown in society.    Just my opinion of course.

 

Here, a NYC fire chief's diary. 

 "I thought that surviving Sept. 11, 2001, would be the part of history I would tell grandchildren, but COVID has clearly surmounted even that disastrous and heartbreaking day." 

https://www.propublica.org/article/dead-on-arrival-a-ny-fire-chiefs-covid-journal

 

  

[dynato]

2 minutes ago, UNDlaw80 said:

 

Of course not every death is due to Covid, yet it doesn't nullify that fatalities are being under-reported.       

Interestingly the 'death at home' situation underscores the adverse effects Covid has on health and safety infrastructures beyond hospital settings.  NYC firefighters, first respondents, police, paramedics, etc. are all infected and operating at reduced levels.  Completely unsustainable.  Yet we have mental midgets (I'm looking in your direction de Blasio) advocating NYC be opened up right now?  Yea ok, walk into a fire department and tell them that.  The potential health ramifications of eliminating social distancing in NY at this time, could very well lead to a breakdown in society.    Just my opinion of course.

 

Here, a NYC fire chief's diary. 

 "I thought that surviving Sept. 11, 2001, would be the part of history I would tell grandchildren, but COVID has clearly surmounted even that disastrous and heartbreaking day." 

https://www.propublica.org/article/dead-on-arrival-a-ny-fire-chiefs-covid-journal

 

NYTimes wrote a very detailed article on the breakout of COVID in New York (Released on April 8th). They address the shortcomings made on by local and state government officials that lead to the current situation. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-response-delays.html

[UNDlaw80]

50 minutes ago, BarnWinterSportsEngelstad said:

Anyone remember the flu?

The flu?  That was last month's talking point.  Let's get with the program here.  

 

[Cratter]

 

[bison73]

14 hours ago, UND1983 said:

I cannot fathom how people are willing to burn something to the ground out of fear.  As long as their Ox isn't being gored I guess.......

It's 2020, not 1920.  

17k have passed away in the US. 60K pass away from the common flu. I think people need to relax a little bit.

[dynato]

3 hours ago, keikla said:

I've seen several places that it's supposedly a good sign in NY that the total statewide covid hospital admissions went up only 1% from yesterday to today.  And how surely that is a sign that things are turning around and fewer people are getting sick. 

Maybe I'm too in the thick of it, but I don't see how just looking at total admissions as a snapshot in time gives an accurate picture. 

Let's say you have an 800 bed hospital.  100 patients died of covid yesterday, and 108 new covid patients got admitted.  It seems kind of silly to celebrate the fact that your hospital admissions only increased by 1%...

Your experience is the best/accurate picture in my opinion. The public needs little wins and the media will frame the situation in a way to give them what they want. It's unfortunate if it leads to misrepresentation of what you are dealing with. Likely the full picture won't be accurately represented until things start slowing down and when time can be spent analyzing what happened and why. 

[dynato]

2 hours ago, bison73 said:

17k have passed away in the US. 60K pass away from the common flu. I think people need to relax a little bit.

I will say the problem with mitigation efforts are that they disproportionately impact non-major cities/ small communities like Grand Forks. The average major city has shut down at around 25 cases. ND communities had single digit cases/ 0 cases before essentially shutting down, despite us being remote and sparsely populated.  Grand Forks still only has 11 cases that we know of. Unfortunately, we won't know the reduction of deaths resulting from these extreme measures, which makes it harder for our community to justify and agree with. However, it is clear that once it gets a foothold on a community, it is incredibly difficult to stop its growth.

60,0000 people dying from flu every year equates to 165 people dying a day (60,000/365=165). COVID in it's current stage has death rate of 3.7% in america, making it 37 times deadlier than the standard flu. What this means is that if COVID spreads with the same intensity as the flu (which we know it does), that there is a potential of (60,000*37) = 2.2 million people dying with no mitigation efforts. 

COVID has killed over 1900 people each of the past three days. Keep in mind, this is with social distancing and sheltering at home efforts in most states. This is without yet peak death rates/without "containing" the virus. This makes it 13 more times as deadly as the flu in this current stage without having the complete numbers. This means 780,000 could die this year if the curve is not flattened as a result from not taking it seriously enough. This would make it the highest cause of death in america, the equivalent of 1 in 5 deaths in america being COVID.

For anyone wanting to dispute the death toll, our president said that he trusts the reported numbers and believes they are pretty accurate. Dr. Fauci also backs this up and shoots down claims of those stating the death toll is inflated. 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/coronavirus-conspiracy-theory-death-overcount-anthony-fauci.

Extra Info for anyone curious: Below is the most recent covid death rate by age group.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

[UND1983]

COVID has killed over 1900 people each of the past three days. Keep in mind, this is with social distancing and sheltering at home efforts in most states.

Spreading the deaths amongst the entire country is a bit disingenuous, no?  The majority are in a few areas. 

[Nodak78]

50% of all deaths in the USA are located in NY, NJ and Michigan.  25% of the deaths in USA are located in NYC.  How in the hell can you social distance in NYC when people are living in sleeping rooms.  I could be wrong but the model doesn't compare the density will people living on top of each other vs the population in the vast part of the USA.  

[jdub27]

10 hours ago, Cratter said:

 

COVID-19 PATIENT CALCULUS: Health departments across Ohio now will include people who show symptoms of having contracting the coronavirus but who have not been tested, said Michael Dohn, medical director, Public Health - Dayton & Montgomery County. The change in how patients will be counted doesn’t mean things are worse, he said, but it means health care professionals will get a better count of who is sick and has COVID-19, whether confirmed by a test or not.

Probably important to note why that is being done: While the state is tracking confirmed cases, it’s important to note that due to the limited amount of testing available the number of confirmed cases is not a true reflection of actual cases in the state.

This is all normal and what is done for other illnesses/viruses as well. The WHO/CDC can't go back and examine the data if it isn't there. Numbers are adjusted up and down regularly after the fact when more information is known. It is medical experts making the determination, not some conspiracy theorist.

[TheFlop]

6 hours ago, dynato said:

60,0000 people dying from flu every year equates to 165 people dying a day (60,000/365=165). COVID in it's current stage has death rate of 3.7% in america, making it 37 times deadlier than the standard flu. What this means is that if COVID spreads with the same intensity as the flu (which we know it does), that there is a potential of (60,000*37) = 2.2 million people dying with no mitigation efforts. 

C'mon, you present some good facts but spreading 60,000 flu deaths over the course of 365 days is misleading.  A more accurate daily count would be spreading those deaths over the actual flu season (i.e. Dec-March or whatever the official season is).

[dlsiouxfan]

17 minutes ago, TheFlop said:

C'mon, you present some good facts but spreading 60,000 flu deaths over the course of 365 days is misleading.  A more accurate daily count would be spreading those deaths over the actual flu season (i.e. Dec-March or whatever the official season is).

So using that methodology, you'd assume the flu season is roughly 13 weeks long which amounts to around 691 deaths a day. 799 died in New York City alone yesterday.   One can only imagine what that would mean in terms of daily deaths if this disease was a as widespread as the flu.  

Rural Americans are kidding themselves if they think this won't impact them.   A widespread outbreak would overwhelm rural health care systems quickly and since urban healthcare systems would already be overwhelmed or on the brink of being overwhelmed there will be no backup valves to handle critical care patients when the limited ICU beds available to rural hospitals are full.