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dynato

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  1. Statements need to be questioned about what they truly mean before taking them as gospel, just like any other statistic out there about covid. There is a lot of stat manipulation out there as you are aware. I would argue positive testing has many too many uncontrollable variables to it to correlate it to anything significant right now. The arguments down the road will be did we test too early and those who were first panic and tested negative got infected later? Did they get tested again? Where are we testing? Did we test too late? Are all tests account for? IS there a time lag between reporting of negative vs positive? Did we test enough people or not enough? Did we test the right people? Should we have been more or less selective about the people we tested? How does the positive test rate correlate to the entire population of infected? Most of these questions will be answered for us a year down the road. Many here are correct about comparisons. I brought up the flu because I've seen it attempted to be used as an argument to discredit the severity of Covid. Comparing the current 3,000 some deaths of COVID to the 33,000 deaths of the flu and calling COVID insignificant is a terrible comparison. Comparing raw totals for an incomplete dataset is an invalid argument that people will disregard. Covid is not an established virus with established weekly/yearly totals yet so it cannot be used for a valid comparison based on totals alone. The comparisons that you can draw, that will be respected and not challenged, have to be established variables between the two viruses chosen. In this case I went with the flu vs covid death rate variables, compared them in a ratio, and scaled up to get realistic theoretical totals. What is the spread of a virus in our environment? (10% of Americans get the flu in a year). Within reasonable certainty, you can deem that if a standard virus can easily spread to 10% of Americans every year, a virus of with a similar mode of transmission will also spread to a similar total of the population. In this case, COVID is found to be transmitted airborne and also linger on surfaces for long periods of time, giving it a faster rate of transmission from person to person than the typical virus. For transmission of COVID, it appears to be active in any season, making it deadly all year round (for the flu, it is primarily in the fall/winter season). This makes seasonal totals an invalid argument, at least until weekly rates for COVID are established for the duration of the virus/year. However, this supports the argument that COVID has the potential to spread to more than 10% of Americans if we are not cautious. Using the above info on the spread, we can use the established death rates of each virus to scale up to get a reasonable estimate. The COVID:Flu death rate ratio is currently 17.3:1 in the USA. It would be justifiable to use this ratio and multiply it by the average amount of Americans typically impacted by a person to person virus to receive a reliable death total estimate (165-500k). With vaccines being made, more sheltering in place, and supporting our hospital infrastructure by whatever is necessary, I'm hopeful we can lower the severity of it down to the level of the common flu by next year.
  2. I never said I did not agree with your math/numbers. Your numbers are not unrealistic. There is not a narrative here. Giving someone the full details on the assumptions made to come to your conclusion is not taking away from your narrative. It helps keeps the reader informed and let the come to their own conclusion. Ultimately, your methodology to reach the low end is just as valid as someones methodology to predict the higher end. Experts use more predictive models that people have worked on for years that have been validated as feasible in the medical research community. They still need to be challenged, which we are obviously doing on both ends of the spectrum. Both sides have merit that can't be disproven until this is over. We can run numbers all day, but it won't change what is happening. Running the numbers on the flu and relate covid: 34 million Americans had the flu last year, for a total death toll of 33,000, or 0.1% of infected. Covid has an established death rate that is nearly 5 to 15 times more than the flu for this first go around. Assuming that covid spreads just as well and fast as the flu - the traditional virus, that would mean a total death toll of 165,000 to 500,000 in the USA. This can be considered conservative, as covid both seems to spread faster and isnt contained to spreading in specific seasons. With the shelters in place, the goal is to keep it on the lower end of whatever the theoretical range is. What this means in relation to north dakota: 152 flu deaths last year can translate to 1520 to 1800 covid deaths, placing it at the #1 cause of death in the state. The final death rate for covid would still only be 0.2% of the entire ND population. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/flu_pneumonia_mortality/flu_pneumonia.htm The scary sky is falling stat would be the recovered patients vs death statistic. ~160K registered cases in the USA. There has been only ~8000 resolved outcomes. 5000/8000 (62.5%) recovered, 3000/8000 (37.5%) died. Using small sample sizes means in this case means you are 37.5% likely to die if you get corona. CDC states these outcome stats are likely 2 weeks behind, which makes them unusable for now.
  3. I do not trust the sample size enough yet to extrapolate to the entire population. 4000 ND residents tested is only %0.53 of the total population. It could be better or it could be worse. The math works out under the assumption that we are at peak covid spread in ND or that testing negative will follow linearly on the way up. Based on the available data, I can't make an assumption if we are at peak spread in ND yet, or if we are still on our way there. Likely, it will take a few weeks for us to have a more reasonable picture/ predictable outcome for our state. Thankfully I think we are going to be one of the last to get hit and the first to be done and recover.
  4. It is attached to swanson. They placed live cameras so the public can see construction progress if you fancy that sort of stuff. https://app.oxblue.com/open/und/memorialunion
  5. Various departments at UND and were polled by the state to see their available inventory of available masks and other related medical PPE supplies. Not just the med school.
  6. The flu is an evil we know and have known for a century. We studied it heavily. We can account for it. We have hospital rooms available, doctors designated and trained for it. We have medicine that can be distributed to those who need it that we are confident will help with the situation and shots for help prevent it. The onset of the flu is seasonal, which is a major reason why during the winter majority of school systems shut down in the winter for a few weeks to limit spread of it. We know new viruses spread through the population exponentially so the goal is to limit how fast it grows exponentially. Corona is looking to be about 10 times more deadly than the common flu with today's stats and that is with all of shutdown measures in place. This is the kill-rate with us knowing very little about the virus. Eventually, it will likely be on the same level as the flu. However, this is all speculation, and it could indeed be much, much worse without proper procedures in place/controlling the spread (see Italy).
  7. He posted links to a published medical journal that talks on why Italy has such high death rates for influenza. Based on numbers of deaths in 2014, 2016, and 2017 to establish a trend. The article was published late in 2019 and the only reason it remotely applies to the corona situation is that Italy has high death rates compared to the rest of the modern world. The supporting information in the article is what I had already touched on earlier - old age, multi generational households, tightly packed cities. I learned this information from Michael Osterholm, who is a world renowned specialist on infectious disease epidemiology. Hes from MN, good guy. Has a non-biased interview with Joe Rogan about infectious diseases worth checking out. I've been reading, and I do actually mean thorough reading, and linking articles like crazy. It doesn't make me an expert by any means, but it does make me well informed enough to comment. This guys bio says he podcaster, author, and filmer, not a medical professional. Anything he comments about the pandemic cannot be taken seriously, much like that of the comments made on this thread. -Also looking back, in the post you shared he never claims we are the next Italy. He just points out that the USA is not seeing as crazy of a high death toll and links to a resource for people to understand why. So he actually is contributing to moving the conversation forward - a good thing.
  8. In the title of your article it even says "bans most" not all. Flights to and from China were still allowed at the time for business purposes. From your article, arguable the biggest airline in the USA: "Delta plans to wait until Feb. 6 to suspend China operations to help travelers in China leave the country. It said the stoppage will continue through April 30." Flights to and from china from USA were still available as late as February 13th: https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/2020/02/13/you-can-still-fly-us-to-china-if-you-need-to-go/#23b1eaa9637f
  9. Its not necessarily about the amount of ventilators, but where they are located and who they are currently being used on. Half those ventilators are for kids too. For adults, this number is 197 per million according to this published medical survey. Going to grand forks, a population of ~60,000 people, that gives grand forks a comparative total of roughly 13 ventilators. I rounded up for you. These ventilators are still needed for the typical patients. So all it is going to take for our own infrastructure to start struggling is a few severe cases. I posted another article below that is titled "Allocation of Ventilators in a Public Health Disaster", published in 2008, that goes into detail on what medical professionals actually need to deal with on the frontline. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21149215 https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/687DAE3F9B11939B5EFD5AB7DA5013B1/S193578930000077Xa.pdf/allocation_of_ventilators_in_a_public_health_disaster.pdf I personally would not take any advice on a pandemic seriously from some dude on twitter named "EconTalker" who only has a degree in economics, but you do you ☺
  10. The same people have already been calling him a racist for years? Not a good battle to pick. Besides. You have your facts backwards. There were still flights from china into the USA up until March 3rd. Only outgoing flights to China were outright banned before February. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-delta-air/major-us-airlines-cancel-china-flights-as-government-steps-up-warnings-idUSKBN1ZU25I https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-china-coronavirus-airlines-business-effects/ https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/coronavirus-china-becomes-increasingly-isolated-as-airlines-pull-out.html
  11. What is the point of this video? Did our leaders act appropriately or not? Trump is our leader and acted exactly the same as those criticized in this video, so it just comes off as hypocritical. Worse yet is the timeline in this video. The dates referenced in this video were February 2nd. A full 24 days before Trump famously said "[W]hen you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done." This is a similar reaction to those mentioned in the video, except there were no US cases on February 2nd, and there were only 15 cases on February 26th. In the context of this video, Trump seems agree with their takes on things not being a big deal while simultaneously being several weeks behind the reaction of the general populace. Not a great look when you think about it tbh
  12. Italy is a hot spot for travel, so the virus moved quickly throughout their population. Italy is also condensed, with trains being one of the most common modes of travel. Their population is also older than majority of first world countries (ranked 5th apparently). Their culture is set up so that the older generation lives with and is taken care of by the generation before them. Kids/adults appeared healthy, unknowingly bring the virus home to vulnerable mom/dad/grandma/grandma, which set up their system to fail. Their hospital systems were not set up for a rapid influx of patients needing respiratory care, leading to even higher than typical death tolls. I doubt any major health system in the modern world is prepared for a rapid influx of respiratory care, which is why many countries are sheltering. USA is at least more sparsely populated, besides for major cities, and there are not as many multi-generational family households which helps with the death rate. If the end result in the USA is that people think that our government over-reacted too much, that is fine because that was their goal. However, it would be heavily apparent if they under-reacted/failed to act leading to a death rate similar to that of Italy.
  13. Here is Obama speaking on the criticism that goes with the job of being president. Much of the first minute can be applied to every presidency, especially Trump. There is Trump the person and Trump the Symbol of the presidency. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HO-9AZjflY&feature=emb_title Here are some articles demonstrating criticism and challenging Obama's handling of the swine flu, lack of vaccines, improper response, and growing negative media coverage. These are hard to find since it was almost a decade ago. The closest thing I could find to Obama calling swine flu a hoax was he first used the argument that the traditional flu is much more deadly as a reason for the public not to be concerned and ignore the issue. A few months later he then declared a national emergency. Sounds similar to todays news. https://www.foxnews.com/transcript/deconstructing-the-swine-flu-causes-for-concern-and-calm https://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/29/us/politics/29shortage.html https://www.globalresearch.ca/obama-administration-launches-deceptive-swine-flu-propaganda-blitz/15860 http://archive.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/44032667.html/ https://www.usnews.com/news/washington-whispers/articles/2009/09/14/media-coverage-of-obama-grows-more-negative https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB125640028120405945 https://www.mediamatters.org/sean-hannity/misinformation-pandemic-conservative-media-use-h1n1-oppose-health-care-reform The media has been unfair to Trump, especially in his times of success. The justification for extra criticism is he is held to a different standard since he is not a career politician. However, when given opportunities to prove himself as a strong leader he sometimes fails. Leaders need to be called out for it, it is part of their job to handle it. With out allowing for healthy skepticism of our government and the decisions made, it will make us resemble a socialist/communist country. FDR gave an iconic response that will be remembered for generations in relation to the public being afraid. The media gave Trump an easy question about the public being scared. And there are a lot of people who are afraid (evidence by there being no toilet paper in grand forks). All he had to do was give a typical BS response to inspire and give hope to our country and all he did was crap on the reporter. This too will be an iconic response that will be remember for generations.
  14. Ramp pass was $300 before I switched to a Staff/Faculty ($225) pass last year. Both numbers were off slightly (sorry!), as they plan on charging $625 not $650. This bump in charges is almost explicitly because of the massive debt of the parking ramp, where the parking department is financially unable to keep up with payments and the state government is no longer going to subsidize their debt's. Attached is an e-mail from someone on the inside of the parking committee letting staff/faculty what the University is trying to push through. I'll attach the comprehensive parking study they referenced as justification for price change later when I'm off mobile.
  15. UND is forcing through a tiered parking system this fall. Parking ramp pass and on campus parking is going to be raised from ~$300/yr to $650/year. They need to make sure all the spots are cleared out everyday in order to not anger permit holders who spend that much. So sports fans affected by this change are the least of their concerns right now.
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