2022-23 University of North Dakota Hockey Season

[stoneySIOUX]

3 minutes ago, The Sicatoka said:

It's expected. So why aren't they performing to expectations? There's the frustration. 

That's my frustration, too. I was referring to the idea of people getting mad about xG and analytics being used to explain what's going on. It's an odd boogeyman that people don't like, for some reason. 

[jdub27]

23 minutes ago, stoneySIOUX said:

It's almost like some are saying, nope, I'm NOT gonna look for hope. No upside. No positive things. I refuse to think this team could possibly be good in the future this season. Very odd.

You must be new here.....
Only doom and gloom allowed! Fire everyone!

[SIOUXELEVENS]

37 minutes ago, The Sicatoka said:

It's expected. So why aren't they performing to expectations? There's the frustration. 

Exactly , up to the staff to figure this out. 

[Oxbow6]

37 minutes ago, stoneySIOUX said:

That's my frustration, too. I was referring to the idea of people getting mad about xG and analytics being used to explain what's going on. It's an odd boogeyman that people don't like, for some reason. 

So like xG the boogeyman is "real" too?  Good thing I didn't know about these things as a child......I would have had to sleep with the lights on! 

[stoneySIOUX]

27 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

So like xG the boogeyman is "real" too?  Good thing I didn't know about these things as a child......I would have had to sleep with the lights on! 

I mean, you tell me lol. You're one so apparently afraid that there could be REAL statistics 

[Oxbow6]

1 hour ago, stoneySIOUX said:

I mean, you tell me lol. You're one so apparently afraid that there could be REAL statistics 

Statistics are real......I like those. As an example UND has the worst save% in the nation. That is real. That is factual.

xG is an analytic which is a "coulda, shoulda, woulda".....it is not real. 13-4 record today based on xG per Schloss is not real. It is a unicorn wish.

Nothing says we all have to see this one way or the other.

Statistics and analytics are not the same thing. The Goggle even says so.

We can on and on about this but until this team wins games in this series a 15-4 xG record won't mean anything if they leave WMU 6-10-3. 

[stoneySIOUX]

2 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

Statistics are real......I like those. As an example UND has the worst save% in the nation. That is real. That is factual.

xG is an analytic which is a "coulda, shoulda, woulda".....it is not real. 13-4 record today based on xG per Schloss is not real. It is a unicorn wish.

Statistics and analytics are not the same thing. The Goggle even says so.

We can on and on about this but until this team wins games in this series a 15-4 xG record won't mean anything if they leave WMU 6-10-3. 

See, that's where you are presuming. No one is saying these analytics mean anything other than that it's unfortunate we're in that position. It's saying that if UND wasn't the outlier, we'd be in a much better position. They are the outlier, so we're in a poor position. It's really all it is.

Day-in-and-day-out in sports there are stories like "coulda, woulda, shoulda" and no one bats an eye. So, when stuff like this is presented, instead of insulting it, understand the reasoning for it. Call it an excuse if you want, but these are real numbers. 

All good, man. I get you don't dig xG. It's fine. Let's move on.

[Godsmack]

On 12/8/2022 at 11:36 AM, Fader said:

Trev rants a bit around the 15:20  

 

 

This segment is f’ing classic! I’m very much enjoying the stories about bad hockey coaches! Classic! 

[BigGreyAnt41]

34 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

xG is an analytic which is a "coulda, shoulda, woulda".....it is not real. 13-4 record today based on xG per Schloss is not real. It is a unicorn wish.

So is the entire Pairwise Ranking system.  The algorithm takes two teams that possibly haven't ever played and determines which one is better based on a bunch of metrics and some made up numbers.  That's the same thing as xG.  It's using other statistics to make a prediction on performance.  

Now if somebody suggests anybody hang a banner because "xG said we really had the best record this year", then those people should be locked in a padded room.

[Esoteric]

3 hours ago, Oxbow6 said:

Statistics are real......I like those. As an example UND has the worst save% in the nation. That is real. That is factual.

xG is an analytic which is a "coulda, shoulda, woulda".....it is not real. 13-4 record today based on xG per Schloss is not real. It is a unicorn wish.

Nothing says we all have to see this one way or the other.

Statistics and analytics are not the same thing. The Goggle even says so.

We can on and on about this but until this team wins games in this series a 15-4 xG record won't mean anything if they leave WMU 6-10-3. 

Sadly statistics do not get you in the national tournament.  

[iluvdebbies]

What's the latest on Judd's goal and +/- totals?

[jk]

Looking to the second half, there are two ways the team can play well and make the NCAA tournament.  First, they can win enough to move up to the right side of the PWR bubble.  When I look at the schedule, it looks tough to get there.  Every league opponent is challenging.  I can see them playing over 0.500, but that not being enough.  On the other hand, they inexplicably surged last year, so they can do it.

The other way is to get to fourth in the NCHC, win a best of three at home against an equally desperate team, and then win against two very good teams (probably Denver and SC) in St. Paul.  I can see them getting home ice.  If they can play like they just did, and improve on it, they can easily move up the standings.  Winning two in a row in the Final Five?  It's not an impossible task, but not easy.  Check with the hockey gods and DeRidder.  

If they're not playing well enough to get home ice, it's more into miracle territory.

[Sweethockey]

1 hour ago, iluvdebbies said:

What's the latest on Judd's goal and +/- totals?

7 and Blake is a -7. 

[Esoteric]

On 12/9/2022 at 5:00 PM, Esoteric said:

Sadly statistics do not get you in the national tournament.  

Shots on goal does not get you in tournament but goals help. 

[AJS]

After the first half of the season, they are currently sitting at 23rd in the PWR and 7th in the NCHC standings. 7-8-4 (3-5-2) record, not great. Taking a page from @jk post, what needs to happen in the 2nd half. 

They are in a pretty bad spot, but the results @ Western might have saved the season. I believe that's how close they were to the ledge of the season being more or less over from a practical making the playoffs standpoint. 

Let's start with the Pairwise. Their RPI is currently .5242 (23rd). The 24th place team is .5083. They are RPI points wise as close to 17th as they are to 24th. The NCHC standings. They are only 3 points away from the 4th place team. They aren't in a great spot, clearly, but they are closer to the surface then we might think.

My ultimate reason for optimism, is this team has the talent. That has never been the issue. The pieces are there defensively / in net (DeRidder) to turn that very negative first half performance into a positive. We just saw a glimpse in Western. Where I might disagree with @jk is I think the 2nd half of the schedule is favorable. 5 Home vs 3 Road series. The road series @ Denver (tough as it gets), but then @ CC, @ Miami. Although favorable to really turn things around, they would have too more or less have to use the formula that would win the league (win home games, split on the road). 13-3. That would get them on the right side of the PWR and clearly home ice as well. I would think 12-4 would do it too, would 11-5? 

I do feel confident that they'll be able to get home ice. I also feel confident that they'll put themselves in position to make it at the very least interesting (in the mix) for an at large bid. 

[burd]

3 hours ago, AJS said:

After the first half of the season, they are currently sitting at 23rd in the PWR and 7th in the NCHC standings. 7-8-4 (3-5-2) record, not great. Taking a page from @jk post, what needs to happen in the 2nd half. 

They are in a pretty bad spot, but the results @ Western might have saved the season. I believe that's how close they were to the ledge of the season being more or less over from a practical making the playoffs standpoint. 

Let's start with the Pairwise. Their RPI is currently .5242 (23rd). The 24th place team is .5083. They are RPI points wise as close to 17th as they are to 24th. The NCHC standings. They are only 3 points away from the 4th place team. They aren't in a great spot, clearly, but they are closer to the surface then we might think.

My ultimate reason for optimism, is this team has the talent. That has never been the issue. The pieces are there defensively / in net (DeRidder) to turn that very negative first half performance into a positive. We just saw a glimpse in Western. Where I might disagree with @jk is I think the 2nd half of the schedule is favorable. 5 Home vs 3 Road series. The road series @ Denver (tough as it gets), but then @ CC, @ Miami. Although favorable to really turn things around, they would have too more or less have to use the formula that would win the league (win home games, split on the road). 13-3. That would get them on the right side of the PWR and clearly home ice as well. I would think 12-4 would do it too, would 11-5? 

I do feel confident that they'll be able to get home ice. I also feel confident that they'll put themselves in position to make it at the very least interesting (in the mix) for an at large bid. 

Problem with a "favorable" schedule is that it is harder to move up in the pairwise.   Win and go nowhere; lose and fall.  

[The Sicatoka]

If the Saturday @ WMU team shows up for 2023 I like our chances.

If the Saturday @ SCSU team shows up for 2023 it'll be a long winter with no spring. 

[Kevin G]

At the mid-season break:

• Games: 19 games (plus one exhibition) completed. 16 games (plus one exhibition) to go.
• Record: 7-8-4 overall. 3-5-2 in conference. 4-4-1 at home. 3-3-3 on the road. 0-1-0 on neutral ice.
• Points leaders: Blake (21), Jandric (20), Gaber (19).
• Goals leaders: Gaber (11), Blake (9), Hain (8), Caulfield (7).
• Assists leaders: Jandric (18), Blake (12), Gaber (8), McLaughlin (8).
• Plus/minus leaders: Caulfield (+7), Jandric (+5), James (+4), Sidorski (+4).
• Plus/minus laggards: Frisch (-9), McLaughlin (-8), Blake (-7), Kleven (-7).
• Goaltending:
  • DeRidder 2.86 GAA, .890 SV%, over 671 minutes.
  • Hellsten, 3.13 GAA, .859 SV%, over 479 minutes.

• Team Scoring: 3.4 Goals/Game (10th nationally)
• Team Defense:
  • 3.2 Goals Allowed/Game (45th nationally)
  • .873 SV% (59th nationally)
• Special teams:
  • PP: 28.0% (3rd nationally)
  • PK: 89.4% (10th nationally)
• Face-offs: 53.1% (11th nationally) 
• Penalty minutes per game: 10.3 (36th nationally)

 

[The Sicatoka]

16 minutes ago, Kevin G said:

 

• Plus/minus laggards: Frisch (-9), McLaughlin (-8), Blake (-7), Kleven (-7).

 

I'm going to make a bold speculative guess:

I'd bet Frisch/Kleven are out with McLaughlin and Blake more often than not and two defensemen can't cover for the defensive shortcomings of two freshmen forwards. 

[AJS]

53 minutes ago, burd said:

Problem with a "favorable" schedule is that it is harder to move up in the pairwise.   Win and go nowhere; lose and fall.  

Agreed. Small sample size but getting a Tie / Win on the road against a decent team and moving down this past weekend was not what you wanted to see. 

[The Sicatoka]

I'd claim there are a bunch of teams overperforming right now also.

Here's hoping everyone regresses to the mean.  

[tnt]

12 minutes ago, AJS said:

Agreed. Small sample size but getting a Tie / Win on the road against a decent team and moving down this past weekend was not what you wanted to see. 

Need all of the NCHC teams to do really well in the last non-conference series or two.  

CC has Princeton

DU has Lindenwood and Alaska Fairbanks

Miami has Niagara

Duluth has St. Thomas and Bemidji State

Omaha has St. Lawrence

St. Cloud has Minnesota

Western Michigan has Michigan Tech and TBD in GLI

and as everyone has expressed we have to beat Lindenwood.  

[Sweethockey]

1 hour ago, The Sicatoka said:

I'm going to make a bold speculative guess:

I'd bet Frisch/Kleven are out with McLaughlin and Blake more often than not and two defensemen can't cover for the defensive shortcomings of two freshmen forwards. 

DING DING^^^^^^^^^^Winner winner chicken dinner!!! Totally agree with this statement!

[siouxforce19]

2 hours ago, AJS said:

Agreed. Small sample size but getting a Tie / Win on the road against a decent team and moving down this past weekend was not what you wanted to see. 

Western Michigan is a decent team but they weren’t that much ahead of us in the PWR going into the weekend so I’m not sure how much we could have moved up even if we had swept. Just gotta keep banking some wins. 

[Sodbuster]

2 hours ago, The Sicatoka said:

I'm going to make a bold speculative guess:

I'd bet Frisch/Kleven are out with McLaughlin and Blake more often than not and two defensemen can't cover for the defensive shortcomings of two freshmen forwards. 

Like Gino always said, the freshman need to grow some whiskers as the season goes on.