2022-23 University of North Dakota Hockey Season

[jk]

16 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

Here's a "fact".......this team is dead last in the country save %. When your rate of fishing the puck out of your own net is greater than you putting it in the other net it is not complicated as far as how the outcome will turn out.

That sounds dangerously close to analytics, but I agree 100%.  

[MafiaMan]

49 minutes ago, skateshattrick said:

Your memory doesn't serve you right because they lost to Penn State last year in Nashville and still made the NCAA tournament. 

Well I’m 52 years old, so there’s that…I’ll backtrack thru the schedule as I obviously have the opponent and year wrong.  

[jk]

40 minutes ago, siouxkid12 said:

The 20-21 season the were #2 in the final PWR rankings. You also need to stop with that damn excuse of them losing because the other team got a bye. 

It's well established that rest is one of the most significant determinants of results.  You're welcome to ignore it, just as I'm able to acknowledge it, over and over if it's relevant.

Sorry I missed on the PWR, thanks for noting it. 

[skateshattrick]

5 minutes ago, jk said:

It's well established that rest is one of the most significant determinants of results.  You're welcome to ignore it, just as I'm able to acknowledge it, over and over if it's relevant.

Sorry I missed on the PWR, thanks for noting it. 

Agree. I was at that game, and UND also deserved a better fate. When Sanderson hit both posts and it bounced straight out, and Pinto's shot ended up on top of the net and not in, you knew it was not UND's night even though UND carried play most of the game, particularly the 4 OTs. 

[The Sicatoka]

9 minutes ago, skateshattrick said:

Agree. I was at that game, and UND also deserved a better fate. When Sanderson hit both posts and it bounced straight out, and Pinto's shot ended up on top of the net and not in, you knew it was not UND's night even though UND carried play most of the game, particularly the 4 OTs. 

You forgot Hain's reverberating cross bar shot. 

[MafiaMan]

2017-2018:  #3 UND at home against Union College:  4-1 loss, 2-2 tie.

I was also forgetting last season’s home sweep at the hands of Cornell. 

The Penn State loss was bad but equally concerning was that Cornell series.  I was incorrect though, UND did make the tournament last year, despite those 3 non-conference losses.

 

[Kevin G]

On 12/5/2022 at 10:13 AM, The Sicatoka said:

For two guys with power forward builds, I've never seen two guys drive to the net less and with less passion than Caulfield and Kunz. 

One of my wishes for the season was to see those two assert themselves as power forwards, playing with some controlled fury. That hasn't happened. Maybe that's just not their game, despite their size. 

[Sodbuster]

3 hours ago, Kevin G said:

One of my wishes for the season was to see those two assert themselves as power forwards, playing with some controlled fury. That hasn't happened. Maybe that's just not their game, despite their size. 

Well, it damn well should be.

[AJS]

Just listened to the UND Hockey podcast. I know some of the advanced stats aren't for everyone but listening to the projected goal stat and how it accurately predicts 6 of the 8 NCHC records to within a game, I'm starting to buy into it. Count me into the group that believes we'll see a turnaround here this season.

[Oxbow6]

2 minutes ago, AJS said:

Just listened to the UND Hockey podcast. I know some of the advanced stats aren't for everyone but listening to the projected goal stat and how it accurately predicts 6 of the 8 NCHC records to within a game, I'm starting to buy into it. Count me into the group that believes we'll see a turnaround here this season.

Another one that has turned to the dark side..... 

The xG metric had UND beating/winning vs Arizona St and DU (can't remember which night). The eyeball test, if anyone was at or watched, in both of those incidences with the ASU games or DU series revealed the right/better team won. 

Will we see a turnaround....hopefully. A sweep this weekend would help. If this team comes out of WMU 6-10-3 heading into the break I think the reality of what this team's record actually is needs to be recognized and not what it could have been based on xG and Pixie dust.

[FightingSU]

58 minutes ago, AJS said:

Just listened to the UND Hockey podcast. I know some of the advanced stats aren't for everyone but listening to the projected goal stat and how it accurately predicts 6 of the 8 NCHC records to within a game, I'm starting to buy into it. Count me into the group that believes we'll see a turnaround here this season.

What podcast is this? Sioux Lite?

[siouxforce19]

21 minutes ago, FightingSU said:

What podcast is this? Sioux Lite?

Schlossman’s podcast. Simply titled The UND Hockey Podcast. 

[stoneySIOUX]

1 hour ago, Oxbow6 said:

Another one that has turned to the dark side..... 

The xG metric had UND beating/winning vs Arizona St and DU (can't remember which night). The eyeball test, if anyone was at or watched, in both of those incidences with the ASU games or DU series revealed the right/better team won. 

Will we see a turnaround....hopefully. A sweep this weekend would help. If this team comes out of WMU 6-10-3 heading into the break I think the reality of what this team's record actually is needs to be recognized and not what it could have been based on xG and Pixie dust.

I'm not sure why you'd be so against this, but no, it did not...

Here's the stunning part for UND — based on xG, the computer model thinks the Fighting Hawks should be 13-4 right now. It projected both games against Minnesota, one against Arizona State and one against Denver as the losses. In the other 13 games, the statistic shows UND has generated more quality chances than its opponents.

[scpa0305]

1 hour ago, AJS said:

Just listened to the UND Hockey podcast. I know some of the advanced stats aren't for everyone but listening to the projected goal stat and how it accurately predicts 6 of the 8 NCHC records to within a game, I'm starting to buy into it. Count me into the group that believes we'll see a turnaround here this season.

I’ve always said the goals other teams are scoring are point blank opp’s. The issue is with team D breakdowns. Especially at really bad times…that’s between the ears. Not sure that can be fixed, I hope so. Winning is contagious…so is losing. We shall see.

[Oxbow6]

11 minutes ago, stoneySIOUX said:

I'm not sure why you'd be so against this, but no, it did not...

Here's the stunning part for UND — based on xG, the computer model thinks the Fighting Hawks should be 13-4 right now. It projected both games against Minnesota, one against Arizona State and one against Denver as the losses. In the other 13 games, the statistic shows UND has generated more quality chances than its opponents.

Misread the ASU game. Premise to remains the same......DU grossly outplayed UND both nights. Against this?? What realistic value does it bring is the bigger question. For anyone to think this team is anywhere close to a 13-4 team as the xG metric suggest is ridiculous. 

 

Least Schloss is loyal to carrying the water for this program.  I'd be more interested in Schloss asking the question to BB about Brianna and how did she acquire that TM? But I digress......

[stoneySIOUX]

1 minute ago, Oxbow6 said:

Misread the ASU game. Premise to remains the same......DU grossly outplayed UND both nights. Against this?? What realistic value does it bring is the bigger question. For anyone to think this team is anywhere close to a 13-4 team as the xG metric suggest is ridiculous. 

Arguing statistics that are not at all biased is silly, but even so, that's one of the 17 games! So, even by your measure, if the xG was only wrong once, it was correct 90+% of the time.  

[The Sicatoka]

Schlossman is talking "xG"" -> expected Goals (for).

Is there an "xGA" (expected goals against) and how's that looking? That should be ugly given the consistent defensive lapses. 

[stoneySIOUX]

4 minutes ago, The Sicatoka said:

Schlossman is talking "xG"" -> expected Goals (for).

Is there an "xGA" (expected goals against) and how's that looking? That should be ugly given the consistent defensive lapses. 

Close. He's gotten this expanded...

UND's expected goals against this season: 49.71. It has allowed 58. That means the goaltenders have allowed 8.3 more goals than expected — which is the most in the NCHC. Western Michigan is second at 5.8. Denver is third at 0.65.

They're (the goalies) not seeing many shots. UND ranks sixth in the nation — tied with top-ranked Denver — in fewest shots on goal allowed per game (24.5). Yet despite the low shot totals, xG still predicts UND should be way down at 39th nationally in goals against (2.92).

That wide disparity between shots allowed and expected goals-against tells the story that UND may not give up many shots, but when it does, they're quite often high danger ones.

[skateshattrick]

15 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

Misread the ASU game. Premise to remains the same......DU grossly outplayed UND both nights. Against this?? What realistic value does it bring is the bigger question. For anyone to think this team is anywhere close to a 13-4 team as the xG metric suggest is ridiculous. 

 

Least Schloss is loyal to carrying the water for this program.  I'd be more interested in Schloss asking the question to BB about Brianna and how did she acquire that TM? But I digress......

I disagree that DU outplayed UND both nights. I thought UND was the better team on Friday and deserved a better fate. You are correct about Saturday though--DU absolutely dominated that game and UND was lucky to be tied 2-2 late in the 2nd. 

[The Sicatoka]

Quote

That wide disparity between shots allowed and expected goals-against tells the story that UND may not give up many shots, but when it does, they're quite often high danger ones.

Translated: defensive lapses. 

[skateshattrick]

1 minute ago, The Sicatoka said:

Translated: defensive lapses. 

And subpar goaltending. Go back to the Friday night game against DU. DU had 6 or 7 powerplays, and still only generated 20 shots on goal. The 1st goal was a defensive lapse, but the 2nd goal was in the slot, past the dots and not screened. DeRidder just missed it with his glove. The 3rd and game winning goal was even worse. The initial shot was a weak shot from the point that the goalie has to control, but the goalie didn't have his paddle down and left a big rebound leading to an easy goal. As bad as DeRidder has been at times, Hellsten has been even worse. It also came at a time when UND had all the momentum after UND tied it early in the 3rd. Yes, there have been defensive lapses, but goaltending has been atrocious. 

[Oxbow6]

37 minutes ago, stoneySIOUX said:

Arguing statistics that are not at all biased is silly, but even so, that's one of the 17 games! So, even by your measure, if the xG was only wrong once, it was correct 90+% of the time.  

6-8-3 (actual) vs 13-4 (fictional)........ how does 90+% correct fit with this team??

[The Sicatoka]

I may be in the minority on this, but I consider a fat, juicy rebound a defensive lapse. Controlling rebounds is that defender's job. A rebound's net effect is no different than a defenseman in the slot fanning on a clear or going "tape" to the other team with a pass. 

[stoneySIOUX]

28 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

6-8-3 (actual) vs 13-4 (fictional)........ how does 90+% correct fit with this team??

Huh? 

I was referring to the two examples you listed, which end only being one.

Anyway, to your point on how it "fits" with this team, frankly, it doesn't. That's why we've been an outlier. These statistics suggest a positive regression to the mean, based on all of the solid prediction its done throughout the NCHC, and more wins. Will that play out? Who knows?

I'll make it very clear for you... I'm not saying this will happen. But, these stats aren't just some puff of smoke and magic. It's been right overwhelmingly more than it's been wrong this season within college hockey. That gives me hope. Until it's achieved on the ice, it doesn't matter. Idk why anyone is against non-biased statistics. Doesn't make sense. 

 

[The Sicatoka]

@stoneySIOUXI hope you're right, but as Mark Twain used to enjoy pointing out there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”