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2020 Dumpster Fire (Enter at your own risk)


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10 minutes ago, wxman91 said:

Not really.  The idea today is that there is this "silent majority" out there that are Trump supporters but won't tell pollsters about it.  That didn't happen in any relevant fashion in 2016.  It was a very close election, the polls were pretty good, and the undecideds broke towards the challenger at the end.  That's it.  That's the full story.

This year, the polls are not close and Trump's approval ratings are terrible across all sets of information that we have.  

However, I've said it here before and will say it again.  Biden could very well lose.  Trump has a consistent level of support and there is this weird uncertainty out there about COVID and Biden's mental acuity.  What I don't think will tip the scales is the protesting/rioting.  If it were Bernie, then yes, I could see the suburban support melt away.  But Biden is more law & order than the leftist Dems.  His two top VP candidates are a former prosecutor (who the left likes to call Cop-mala) and a National Security Advisor.  Not exactly what "Antifa" would offer up.

 

If the polls were so accurate why has there been a consistent conversation the last four years as to how they got it so wrong and how to improve polling?

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/ 

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/05/14/can-we-still-trust-polls/

I'm genuinely curious as you seem to be very knowledgeable on polls.

 

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2 minutes ago, Hayduke1 said:

Face it dude. 

 

I won this argument in a landslide.

 

Lol

Maybe your argument will change the results of 2016.  

Cant wait until the debates.  Seniors now looking at lowest prescription drug prices in years.  

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9 minutes ago, SiouxBoys said:

"If you're questioning who to vote for, me or Donald Trump, then you ain't black"

- Joe Biden

He apologized almost immediately.  He will get 95% + of the Black vote.

Mary Trump said Donald and family throw around the N word frequently.  Black know he is a racist POS. 

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2 minutes ago, homer said:

Maybe MInnesota is in play for 2020.  Was it around 45,000 votes that Trump lost the state by.  People seem to feel safe based on their democratic leadership.  

https://www.yahoo.com/news/minneapolis-residents-forming-armed-neighborhood-124508528.html

So.

You equate this to a possible pick up for the orange one?

 

Lol

 

I saved it too

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4 minutes ago, Hayduke1 said:

He apologized almost immediately.  He will get 95% + of the Black vote.

Mary Trump said Donald and family throw around the N word frequently.  Black know he is a racist POS. 

So there should be a lot of evidence backing up that claim then, right? I'll wait for you to find it.

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12 minutes ago, Hayduke1 said:

He apologized almost immediately.  He will get 95% + of the Black vote.

Mary Trump said Donald and family throw around the N word frequently.  Black know he is a racist POS. 

Obama didn't even get 95%

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2 minutes ago, BarnWinterSportsEngelstad said:

So basically, the virus is going to run it's course regardless of the measures we take. Thanks, that's what many have been saying since the beginning of this.

Protect the immunocompromised and elderly and let's get back to life so we can develop immunity.

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45 minutes ago, Hayduke1 said:

He apologized almost immediately.  He will get 95% + of the Black vote.

Mary Trump said Donald and family throw around the N word frequently.  Black know he is a racist POS. 

doesn't malik obama say the same thing about barak

lol

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10 minutes ago, BarnWinterSportsEngelstad said:

how do we know it "vanished" in these areas if these said areas were never highly tested

lol

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3 minutes ago, CMSioux said:

Sister in law who is a trumplican and constantly bitching about MN governor overstepping has all the symptoms and is going in for a test - karma baby. 

You sound excited!!  Congrats.

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14 minutes ago, Bison06 said:

So basically, the virus is going to run it's course regardless of the measures we take. Thanks, that's what many have been saying since the beginning of this.

Protect the immunocompromised and elderly and let's get back to life so we can develop immunity.

Well they did say that 265 million Americans would become infected with Covid 19 and that we could expect 2.2 million deaths.

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1 hour ago, Hayduke1 said:

So.

You equate this to a possible pick up for the orange one?

 

Lol

 

I saved it too

Honestly yes, I do think this year provides as much of an opportunity for R’s in MN as there has ever been.  

Out of metro is frustrated with being lumped into he same Covid requirements as the cities.  They tend to vote R anyhow but maybe get a few more votes.  

The article (which I did not write, only cited) shows why debates will be important.  Does Biden go against party and say he’s against defunding police (costing him votes in MN which will more likely be people just not voting) or does he go with the defund police narrative (costing him votes).  How many remains to be seen by how these protests shake out between now and Nov.  

Feel free to hang onto this as it’s only my opinion.  The path for a Trump victory is still the same regardless if he wins MN.  It just may give him a little room for error in another state.  

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1 hour ago, Bison06 said:

If the polls were so accurate why has there been a consistent conversation the last four years as to how they got it so wrong and how to improve polling?

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/ 

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/05/14/can-we-still-trust-polls/

I'm genuinely curious as you seem to be very knowledgeable on polls.

 

The 2nd link pretty much gives you the answer.

Those who felt led astray by surveys conducted during the 2016 U.S. presidential election may be surprised to learn that national polling was generally quite accurate.

National pre-election polls in 2016 indicated that Hillary Clinton would win the national popular vote by a 3-point margin, and in fact she won by 2 points. The major problem was with state-level polls, many of which missed a late swing to Trump among undecided voters and did not correct for the fact that their responding samples contained proportionally too many college-educated voters (who were more likely to favor Clinton). A silver lining is that both of these problems can be overcome, to some extent, by more rigorous survey weighting and heightened attention to the possibility of late shifts in voter preferences.

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1 hour ago, homer said:

The keep him in the basement strategy   Can’t wait for the debates   

https://www.yahoo.com/news/chris-wallace-says-biden-campaign-205028544.html

is Arizona a city or state?  

Do we honestly think there will be debates? What incentive does Biden have to do them? Keep using covid as the reason to do nothing and keep him in hiding. This gives him the best chance of winning.

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44 minutes ago, Bison06 said:

Do we honestly think there will be debates? What incentive does Biden have to do them? Keep using covid as the reason to do nothing and keep him in hiding. This gives him the best chance or winning.

I kind of agree.  (Seriously)

His campaign has been talk when absolutely needed and let Trump be Trump.  It's working. 

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