2020 Dumpster Fire (Enter at your own risk)

[Oxbow6]

NDHSAA cancelled all spring activities and athletics. #saferathome #savelives

 

 

 

.......but pretty sure plenty of those HS student athletes' parents will be at some bars throughout the state tonight.

[Nodak78]

This about sums up the rational why we can't open up in some area.  Saw this on a Twitter feed.  

 

Alex Berenson

@AlexBerenson

·But it’s Iran. But it’s Santa Clara. But it’s Los Angeles. But it’s Germany but it’s Japan but it’s New York butvit’s Miami but it’s Massachusetts but it’s false positives (it’s not) but wait two weeks but second wave but we can’t all have been this wrong so no soup for you. But.

[UNDlaw80]

Fauci speaking under oath?   Yea that ain't happening.      

 

[Nodak78]

If you have 50 minutes a very good address by Alex Berenson and modeling.

 

 

[UND1983]

2 hours ago, Oxbow6 said:

NDHSAA cancelled all spring activities and athletics. #saferathome #savelives

 

 

 

.......but pretty sure plenty of those HS student athletes' parents will be at some bars throughout the state tonight.

Cause we all know those spring sports are huge attendance getters....wtf.  

[UNDBIZ]

18 minutes ago, UND1983 said:

Cause we all know those spring sports are huge attendance getters....wtf.  

Bismarck parks and rec is looking at setting up its own high school aged baseball league in the absence of legion ball. 

[The Sicatoka]

Testing is a lagging indicator. It tells you what has happened, not what will. Before some say it ... 

All models are wrong; some are useful. Never forget that truism from a British statistician (Box). 

We still have my figurative band aid to pull off. Governor Burgum started pulling faster today. 

[dynato]

6 minutes ago, Nodak78 said:

If you have 50 minutes a very good address by Alex Berenson and modeling.

 

The first 12 minutes outlining the limitations and bias of modeling were great and completely accurate. He acknowledged that this is not his area of expertise, but this is a compilation of speculations and data he has found. His framing of how assumptions are changed to update models is a little dramatic (emprical college model). That is how models for new subjects work. They start extreme with large bounds and update variables continuously based on newfound information to refine the model. This is not new or hidden. 

As far as IHME model goes, he was correct it couldn't accurately measure beds required. To be fair no model could. The assumptions IHME made on relatively immeasurable variables were not exactly accurate, which means their estimates will not match exactly what the USA is experiencing. Needing data points from 50 municipalities and data lagging does not help with updating the models to make them relevant. Most scientists would not call a model wrong simply because the assumptions did not fit their need. Despite inaccuracies, the government has to pick what they deem is the best model based off the assumptions made. The government will then use the model to make informed decisions. This will not likely change moving forward. I'd like to believe if the model said 60k deaths and government made decisions solely off the model, rarely any municipalities would have closed. ND especially would not have closed if they based it solely off the models.

He mentions a 3-4% antibody presence in our population means the case fatality rate is less than 1%, perhaps less than 0.5%. Yet earlier in the video he contradicts himself and says it may not be as severe as the flu, which has a case fatality rate of 0.1%. He has a take-my-word for it stance on serology testing validity, which I will remain skeptical of for now until more work is done in the field. I agree with his assumption of 0.5%-1% and have suggested this range before. Keep in mind this range is 5 to 10 times deadlier than the worst flu season we've experienced in the past two decades. 

Overall he is very well spoken, but I do not think his video really advances any specific narrative and is mostly for click-baiting/generating revenue. Most of the models predicting the future of the disease are seemingly irrelevant in the discussion now. Majority of governors have moved away from mentioning these models in their briefings and have recently transitioned to case/hospitalization decline as their key metric for incremental changes. 

 

 

[homer]

5 hours ago, Oxbow6 said:

NDHSAA cancelled all spring activities and athletics. #saferathome #savelives

 

 

 

.......but pretty sure plenty of those HS student athletes' parents will be at some bars throughout the state tonight.

Having get togethers at your house yet for your kids and their friends? 

[Oxbow6]

7 hours ago, homer said:

Having get togethers at your house yet for your kids and their friends? 

If you count having +/-10 kids playing volleyball and/or basketball this past week with the beautiful weather nights...then yes. My youngest daughter did a small group (6 kids) soccer training session with one of her coaches yesterday at a local field as well. My oldest daughter and I went to Sickies last night for supper too then to Walmart to grab an item we needed but you can feel free to keep your crew holed up until....... Safer at home right?

[UND1983]

Is this correct?

 

[Nodak78]

43 minutes ago, UND1983 said:

Is this correct?

 

Oh No.  

[UNDBIZ]

58 minutes ago, UND1983 said:

Is this correct?

 

They've got ND and several other states listed as zero covid deaths. Appears to be a significant lag with their new reporting. 

[Old Fella]

2 hours ago, Oxbow6 said:

If you count having +/-10 kids playing volleyball and/or basketball this past week with the beautiful weather nights...then yes. My youngest daughter did a small group (6 kids) soccer training session with one of her coaches yesterday at a local field as well. My oldest daughter and I went to Sickies last night for supper too then to Walmart to grab an item we needed but you can feel free to keep your crew holed up until....... Safer at home right?

Do you wear masks?

[Goon]

 

[Goon]

14 hours ago, UNDlaw80 said:

Fauci speaking under oath?   Yea that ain't happening.      

 

This adds some context.

Quote

 

But the White House said they will allow Fauci to testify at a Senate Health Committee hearing on May 12, a spokesperson for committee Chairman Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., told NBC news.

Fauci, the head of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has been a key adviser in the Trump administration's fight against the coronavirus, and until recently, a fixture at the White House coronavirus briefings. He's also sat for numerous media interviews on the virus, including on sports podcasts.

In a statement, White House spokesman Judd Deere said the May 6 hearing is not an "appropriate" time for Fauci to go before the House.

 

 

[Oxbow6]

10 minutes ago, Old Fella said:

Do you wear masks?

Tough to do when trying to eat a cheeseburger.

[Nodak78]

11 hours ago, dynato said:

The first 12 minutes outlining the limitations and bias of modeling were great and completely accurate. He acknowledged that this is not his area of expertise, but this is a compilation of speculations and data he has found. His framing of how assumptions are changed to update models is a little dramatic (emprical college model). That is how models for new subjects work. They start extreme with large bounds and update variables continuously based on newfound information to refine the model. This is not new or hidden. 

As far as IHME model goes, he was correct it couldn't accurately measure beds required. To be fair no model could. The assumptions IHME made on relatively immeasurable variables were not exactly accurate, which means their estimates will not match exactly what the USA is experiencing. Needing data points from 50 municipalities and data lagging does not help with updating the models to make them relevant. Most scientists would not call a model wrong simply because the assumptions did not fit their need. Despite inaccuracies, the government has to pick what they deem is the best model based off the assumptions made. The government will then use the model to make informed decisions. This will not likely change moving forward. I'd like to believe if the model said 60k deaths and government made decisions solely off the model, rarely any municipalities would have closed. ND especially would not have closed if they based it solely off the models.

He mentions a 3-4% antibody presence in our population means the case fatality rate is less than 1%, perhaps less than 0.5%. Yet earlier in the video he contradicts himself and says it may not be as severe as the flu, which has a case fatality rate of 0.1%. He has a take-my-word for it stance on serology testing validity, which I will remain skeptical of for now until more work is done in the field. I agree with his assumption of 0.5%-1% and have suggested this range before. Keep in mind this range is 5 to 10 times deadlier than the worst flu season we've experienced in the past two decades. 

Overall he is very well spoken, but I do not think his video really advances any specific narrative and is mostly for click-baiting/generating revenue. Most of the models predicting the future of the disease are seemingly irrelevant in the discussion now. Majority of governors have moved away from mentioning these models in their briefings and have recently transitioned to case/hospitalization decline as their key metric for incremental changes. 

 

 

The presentation was accurate.  Including criticism of Ferguson model(imperial). Ferguson has been a extreme on models.  It's only wrong if you over shoot.  

IHME model was $#+&)@ from the beginning and still is.  The revised model for ND April 29 predicts 3 deaths a day for 20 days in May.  These models can't predict a week in advance enen after revision.

Yes most people have moved on from models because they are garbage.  

Alex mentioned more deaths for over 90 year old than under 50 year old.

NY screwed themselves on late shutdown and terrible mismanagement of nursing home etc.  

 

[The Sicatoka]

Herd immunity comes from exposing the herd. 
 

Band aid: fast or slow.

While you decide I should let you know there’s another wound that needs tending. 

[Goon]

In other news. NFL News: League Not Altering Fall Plans, Will Release 17-Game Schedule Next Week

 

Quote

ESPN is reporting that the NFL has no intention of changing anything for the upcoming season as of this time. The regular-season opener will take place on September 10, and the Super Bowl is going to be played on February 7, 2021, with the idea that fans will be in attendance. NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy said that the league does “plan to start on time.”

 

 

[Siouxphan27]

4 minutes ago, The Sicatoka said:

Herd immunity comes from exposing the herd. 
 

Band aid: fast or slow.

While you decide I should let you know there’s another wound that needs tending. 

I believe one of the medical terms used to describe the other wounds is bankruptcyitis. 

[homer]

3 hours ago, Oxbow6 said:

If you count having +/-10 kids playing volleyball and/or basketball this past week with the beautiful weather nights...then yes. My youngest daughter did a small group (6 kids) soccer training session with one of her coaches yesterday at a local field as well. My oldest daughter and I went to Sickies last night for supper too then to Walmart to grab an item we needed but you can feel free to keep your crew holed up until....... Safer at home right?

I am not one who has locked myself or family in.  I haven’t been on this board talking about my kids needing to socialize.  I’ve been pretty consistent thinking they could socialize and go to school/sports since March.  If I wasn’t willing to allow them to play with friends, why should have I expected the schools to be ready?  Glad you got out.  It was a good day yesterday. 

[yzerman19]

17 hours ago, Hansel said:

 

This article does a decent job of explaining the politicization of hydroxychloroquine

 

https://www.wired.com/story/the-info-war-over-chloroquine-has-slowed-covid-19-science/

Right its ridiculous...the division...you'd think both sides could out aside partisanship for this...

 

[yzerman19]

35 minutes ago, homer said:

I am not one who has locked myself or family in.  I haven’t been on this board talking about my kids needing to socialize.  I’ve been pretty consistent thinking they could socialize and go to school/sports since March.  If I wasn’t willing to allow them to play with friends, why should have I expected the schools to be ready?  Glad you got out.  It was a good day yesterday. 

We locked our family down in our home, not leaving the house for 5 weeks, not seeing anybody else, not going to the grocery store.  I was drinking quinine (not tonic water) in the hopes that it would inhibit Covid, taking all my vitamins...Week 6 we took care of a car repair issue and went to the grocery store.  Week 7 my son is back on the ice with 5 other boys and we are making runs for whatever supplies we need, including getting take out.  As we prepare to enter week 8, we still aren't going to be going to restaurants or concerts or bars...I'm not taking flights to NYC anytime soon...

We did our part to flatten the curve.  Now its time to be responsible but not full-blown self-quarantine.  

[dynato]

2 hours ago, Nodak78 said:

The presentation was accurate.  Including criticism of Ferguson model(imperial). Ferguson has been a extreme on models.  It's only wrong if you over shoot.  

IHME model was $#+&)@ from the beginning and still is.  The revised model for ND April 29 predicts 3 deaths a day for 20 days in May.  These models can't predict a week in advance enen after revision.

Yes most people have moved on from models because they are garbage.  

Alex mentioned more deaths for over 90 year old than under 50 year old.

NY screwed themselves on late shutdown and terrible mismanagement of nursing home etc.  

 

Again, the criticism was dramatized. Under shoot, over shoot, it does not matter, it is just a model and that is what models do. They are all just simulations with inputs and assumed outputs. Models are not garbage because they do not fit your application or because you do not understand how they should be applied to your situation. Now about the decisions made over using a model that does not fit needs correctly? Those can be questioned as right or wrong or failures. He is just misdirecting your anger for clicks.

If someone could create a model than can accurately predict a week into the future they would be rich. We can't predict the weather a week out with 100% accuracy and that has been studied for decades.

The impact on ND will be a drop in the bucket compared to the rest of the USA. ND has such a low population that any change skews the results, 1 death a day to 2 deaths a day is a 100% increase. ND had 4 deaths yesterday. IHME said 3 deaths, off by 1 death, so obviously we must discredit it as a complete and utter catastrophic failure.  

Alex leaves out that the Ferguson model predicts a case fatality rate that is 0.4% to 1.4%. without NPI and 0.2% to 0.9% with NPI, which is inline with his own thoughts and what portions of the world are actually experiencing right now. Where the Ferguson model does not apply and could not accurately predict is the rate of transmission through the population in difference scenarios. Two months into this and we still do not confidently know the rate of transmission.