2020 Dumpster Fire (Enter at your own risk)

[Goon]

Hmm.

Coronavirus infections may be 10 times higher than reported, CDC says

Quote

 

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that the number of coronavirus infections in the United States could be 10 times higher than reported, totaling over 20 million cases.

“Our best estimate right now is for every case reported, there were actually 10 other infections,” CDC Director Robert Redfield told reporters Thursday.

Redfield said the estimates came from infection surveillance and serology testing, which looks for the presence of antibodies in the blood to show if the person has been exposed to the virus. The CDC focused its early efforts on testing people who were showing symptoms of the coronavirus infection, avoiding those who were asymptomatic and unknowingly transmitting the virus.

 

Seems to be a theme emerging here.

Horowitz: Bombshell Penn State study shows 80 times more infections existing in March than the official count

Quote

We didn't start testing for COVID-19 until March, and testing didn't ramp up in earnest until a month or two later in most parts of the country. How many cases already existed when the panic set in during mid-March? According to a peer-reviewed study by Penn State, "the number of early COVID-19 cases in the U.S. may have been more than 80 times greater and doubled nearly twice as fast as originally believed."

 

 

 

 

[wxman91]

16 hours ago, CMSioux said:

Actually this thread should be renamed "How to kill a fan site".

"dumpster fire" is accurate

Texas closing back down the bars.  LOL.  That darn lib Greg Abbott.

[UND1983]

18 minutes ago, wxman91 said:

"dumpster fire" is accurate

Texas closing back down the bars.  LOL.  That darn lib Greg Abbott.

Mistake. 

[NoiseInsideMyHead]

32 minutes ago, UND1983 said:

Mistake. 

Was the curve flattened, or not? 

If the curve was never capable of being adequately 'flattened,' then the entire exercise was one in futility.

[jdub27]

2 hours ago, NoiseInsideMyHead said:

Was the curve flattened, or not? 

If the curve was never capable of being adequately 'flattened,' then the entire exercise was one in futility.

Wasn't the whole point of the hammer (shutting things down to flatten the curve) to get to the dance (targeted scaling back)?

It seems other countries have managed. It is what it is, when cases go up, things are going to close down.

[SIOUXFAN97]

if you have no symptoms or feel fine...don't get tested

if you have symptoms and don't feel fine....get tested

don't be a sheeple

[UND1983]

2 hours ago, jdub27 said:

Wasn't the whole point of the hammer (shutting things down to flatten the curve) to get to the dance (targeted scaling back)?

It seems other countries have managed. It is what it is, when cases go up, things are going to close down.

Kick the can down the road?

[90siouxfan]

Maybe I misunderstood the blurb I saw when this first started, something about all studied pandemics show an initial wave, and a second higher wave.  Seems like some persons, thought it would be over, not likely imho.

[KoolGuy2K]

Then you got this crazy....

[Oxbow6]

ND did over 4400 tests yesterday............29 new cases.

[dynato]

1 hour ago, KoolGuy2K said:

Then you got this crazy....

This is a fake tweet designed to brainwash and rattle you.

[jdub27]

1 hour ago, Oxbow6 said:

ND did over 4400 tests yesterday............29 new cases.

We're doing well up here. 

And then you have Florida who had more new cases in one day than 12 states have reported since this started. 

[Cratter]

Hard to get an accurate measure of daily deaths when states keep dumping old deaths into the new numbers.

Especially when they never tested positive but "probably." 

This could go on for a long time.

New Jersey added 1,800 deaths to their one day total and might keep adding old probably deaths to the new daily numbers.

....and that's just one state.

 

 

[Old Fella]

9 hours ago, jdub27 said:

We're doing well up here. 

And then you have Florida who had more new cases in one day than 12 states have reported since this started. 

Texas & Florida reverses their decision to open up bars---

[UNDlaw80]

10 hours ago, Cratter said:

Hard to get an accurate measure of daily deaths when states keep dumping old deaths into the new numbers.

Especially when they never tested positive but "probably." 

This could go on for a long time.

New Jersey added 1,800 deaths to their one day total and might keep adding old probably deaths to the new daily numbers.

....and that's just one state.

 

 

 

Why do we keep going over this?  Covid casualty figures are no less accurate than those of H1N1’s, or the flu.  The CDC by and large calculates them the same way; all of them littered with 'probably' old deaths added after the fact.   

Is it 100% accurate?  Of course not.  But, at the very least, we have a uniform platform whereby to measure the seriousness of each disease relative to each other.  

[homer]

10 minutes ago, UNDlaw80 said:

 

Why do we keep going over this?  Covid casualty figures are no less accurate than those of H1N1’s, or the flu.  The CDC by and large calculates them the same way; all of them littered with 'probably' old deaths added after the fact.   

Is it 100% accurate?  Of course not.  But, at the very least, we have a uniform platform whereby to measure the seriousness of each disease relative to each other.  

The problem is with that is right now, both political parties are using those death numbers for political positioning heading into November.   The number the media should be using is death percentage per positive case.  Taking a swag at death counts going back in time and throwing that number in a chart does nothing but scare people when the media shows a huge jump in death overnight.  

[UNDlaw80]

20 hours ago, NoiseInsideMyHead said:

Was the curve flattened, or not? 

If the curve was never capable of being adequately 'flattened,' then the entire exercise was one in futility.

 

The point of the shut-down wasn't to flatten the curve forever.  That's impossible.  The shut-down is a holding pattern.  It 'flattens the curve' while you come up with a solution to the problem.  

We as a country chose to shut down (taking a drastic economic hit) but instead of uniformly moving forward to a solution, half the country complained about shutting down and rebelled against precautionary opening up policies.  Actually, nobody followed CDC guidelines outright.     

.....and here we are.  An economy in the toilet and (unlike tons of other countries) covid running wild.  

 

[UND1983]

11 minutes ago, UNDlaw80 said:

 

The point of the shut-down wasn't to flatten the curve forever.  That's impossible.  The shut-down is a holding pattern.  It 'flattens the curve' while you come up with a solution to the problem.  

We as a country chose to shut down (taking a drastic economic hit) but instead of uniformly moving forward to a solution, half the country complained about shutting down and rebelled against precautionary opening up policies.  Actually, nobody followed CDC guidelines outright.     

.....and here we are.  An economy in the toilet and (unlike tons of other countries) covid running wild.  

 

You feel that a uniform policy moving forward was really an option?  All 50 states implementing the same policy month by month.....during an election year.  Huh.  

[UNDlaw80]

48 minutes ago, homer said:

The problem is with that is right now, both political parties are using those death numbers for political positioning heading into November.   The number the media should be using is death percentage per positive case.  Taking a swag at death counts going back in time and throwing that number in a chart does nothing but scare people when the media shows a huge jump in death overnight.  

 

The media's responsibility is an entirely different topic than how official casual numbers are counted.  In any event, when your in the eye of the storm of a pandemic numbers tend to be under-reported.  We're not gonna have the true scope of this until years after the fact.     

[Cratter]

2 hours ago, UNDlaw80 said:

 

Why do we keep going over this?  Covid casualty figures are no less accurate than those of H1N1’s, or the flu.  The CDC by and large calculates them the same way; all of them littered with 'probably' old deaths added after the fact.   

Is it 100% accurate?  Of course not.  But, at the very least, we have a uniform platform whereby to measure the seriousness of each disease relative to each other.  

The point is how do we know current death numbers? Which was the first sentence of my post.

Quote

Hard to get an accurate measure of daily deaths when states keep dumping old deaths into the new numbers

Just like new confirmed coronavirus cases. We know a spike in new coronavirus cases are from new coronavirus cases.

But we cant say that for the new daily death counts.

"Spike in new coronavirus cases. Well we added some coronavirus cases from april. So now there's a new spike."

[homer]

2 minutes ago, UNDlaw80 said:

 

The media's responsibility is an entirely different topic than how official casual numbers are counted.  In any event, when your in the eye of the storm of a pandemic numbers tend to be under-reported.  We're not gonna have the true scope of this until years after the fact.     

Underreported deaths and under reported infection counts.  Both are very important to the narrative of the virus but only one gets the attention from media and half of our political leadership   

 

[SIOUXFAN97]

12 hours ago, dynato said:

This is a fake tweet designed to brainwash and rattle you.

the tweet might be fake but the you don't have to be a dummy to realize this is what is happening....

[Cratter]

How ironic that we're nearly bankrupting hospitals to treat sick covid patients. 

[wxman91]

5 hours ago, homer said:

The problem is with that is right now, both political parties are using those death numbers for political positioning heading into November.   The number the media should be using is death percentage per positive case.  Taking a swag at death counts going back in time and throwing that number in a chart does nothing but scare people when the media shows a huge jump in death overnight.  

The problem is that there are still people downplaying COVID and comparing it to the flu.  But the CDC models the number of flu deaths.  They don't have accurate counts at all.  The same will happen with COVID after the fact and the number of fatalities will undoubtedly rise.  By not taking a swag at the death counts the states aren't providing good information for public policy.

And while I agree that the death counts shouldn't be be main metric, I don't think that deaths per case is that useful either.  Cases are far too dependent on testing.  Nobody really has a good idea of how many people have had COVID.  Either fewer people have it and the death rate is quite high, or more people have it and the spread is more aggressive than we thought.  And the problem with deaths, of course, is the underlying factors.

Hospitalizations is probably the best metric.  That is a solid number that reflects serious cases that are either going to result in death or extended impacts.

[UND1983]

26 minutes ago, wxman91 said:

Either fewer people have it and the death rate is quite high, or more people have it and the spread is more aggressive than we thought.  

I see you left out where more people have it than we know....meaning it isn't nearly as dangerous as we thought and certainly not as fatal as many were thinking/hoping.  The fatality rates drops bigtime as testing ramps up.