Far too early, but what the hell...Bracketology

[Dave Berger]

7 minutes ago, Cratter said:

https://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrtournament/

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/probabilityMatrix.php

Are the differences between these two in that CHR runs the probabilities of games and the outcome is strictly based on that?

While CHN does the same but weighs the games with the probability that certain teams win based on how good they are?

For example CHR has Minnesota at 76% but CHN has them at 92%.

 

Jim can certainly shed more light on this, but this is how he explains his methodology on the website:

Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred.

The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage.

I'm assuming that CHN runs their simulations as a "coin flip" (i.e. the two teams in question have an equal chance of winning the game), but I haven't done any digging into that.

Dave

[Cratter]

6 minutes ago, Dave Berger said:

I'm assuming that CHN runs their simulations as a "coin flip" (i.e. the two teams in question have an equal chance of winning the game), but I haven't done any digging into that.

Dave

Thanks, sort of what I would guess. 
Just the methodology is reversed between the two sites from my initial response.

[MafiaMan]

49 minutes ago, Dave Berger said:

What was the committee supposed to do? Wisconsin was the #1 overall seed and thus were placed in the closest regional (Resch Center in Green Bay, WI, with Michigan Tech as the host school). Cornell took the Badgers to three overtimes in the regional final before falling 1-0.

The 2006 Frozen Four was played at the Bradley Center (Milwaukee, Wisconsin).

Incidentally, North Dakota hosted the 2006 West Regional at Ralph Engelstad Arena that season. The other participating teams in Grand Forks? Minnesota, Michigan, and Holy Cross.

Dave

I know the committee had no choice, Dave, but that whole season worked out quite nicely for the Badgers.  Almost TOO perfect.

[siouxweet]

Who cares about percentages.  Just go win 2 games or it probably won't matter as there will probably be an upset that won't help UND.  These guys have made their bed.

[Siouxperfan7]

Of all the years where UND hosts a Regional in Sioux Falls and the Frozen Four is in St Paul, we are fighting to make a playoff spot at the Frozen Faceoff!!  The road to #9 is very favorable for UND this year.  Just need to find a way in to the tournament.  Anything can happen after that.  History has proven that!!  

JUST WIN BABY!!

[petey23]

4 hours ago, yelo09 said:

So with UND most likely being a bubble team and their fate resting on a decision by NCAA tourney committee … does the need for fans, and fan base potential with location of Sioux Falls and possible St. Paul trump their hatred for UND

This isn't the basketball tournament. No smoke filled rooms or conspiracies in hockey.

[petey23]

4 hours ago, Dave Berger said:

Once the field is selected (a combination of auto-bids and at-large bids ranked by the Pairwise), teams have been moved around within their seeding bands for attendance purposes. Since the mathematical formula (PWR) was developed and made public, there has never been an instance of a team being included in the tourney field over another, more worthy team for financial reasons. And I, for one, am glad for that. In or out, it's all about the math. No more smoke-filled rooms for me.

Dave

The one thing that has never made sense to me is they will switch around the 5 seed and 8 seed if necessary but no way in hell would they switch around the 7 and 9.

[snova4]

I realize you can't realistically keep every player until they are seniors, but could you imagine what this team would look like worth senior Nick Schmaltz, junior Brock Boeser,  and sophomore Tyson Jost in the lineup at forward. Throw in senior Tucker Poolman anchoring the defense with Wolanin opposite him? Good God. 

 

I don't think we would have any worries about the pairwise bubble bursting and finding ourselves on the outside. 

[rhenry8439]

13 hours ago, snova4 said:

I realize you can't realistically keep every player until they are seniors, but could you imagine what this team would look like worth senior Nick Schmaltz, junior Brock Boeser,  and sophomore Tyson Jost in the lineup at forward. Throw in senior Tucker Poolman anchoring the defense with Wolanin opposite him? Good God. 

 

I don't think we would have any worries about the pairwise bubble bursting and finding ourselves on the outside. 

 

[siouxfan512]

This is almost to the point of being frustrating. In being anxious for the weekend, I want to read about UND and the tourney, but it is so clear cut what needs to be done that there just isn't a lot of room for speculation. It is simply a waiting game for Friday. The herald needs to come out with some more reading material.

[farce poobah]

4 hours ago, rhenry8439 said:

 

+1 for working a Doctor Who reference into the Bracketology thread.

[BarnWinterSportsEngelstad]

5 hours ago, siouxfan512 said:

This is almost to the point of being frustrating. In being anxious for the weekend, I want to read about UND and the tourney, but it is so clear cut what needs to be done that there just isn't a lot of room for speculation. It is simply a waiting game for Friday. The herald needs to come out with some more reading material.

Writer (Adam Wodon) spilled his ink in this article -- that Sioux Falls gives us a home game. We need to get there!!

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2018/03/12_Bracket-ABCs-March-Madness.php

The North Dakota Effect 

Ah, North Dakota, always making life miserable for everyone. Stop it. We kid because we love you. Win or lose, it's already the team everyone loves to hate. It's typical human nature when it comes to sports — a successful program, with a humongous fan base, is just prone to get irritated by. Take it as a compliment North Dakota fans.

That said, it's also the team everyone wants to avoid in the first round of the NCAAs. One, because it has a large fan base and is a pretty good team. But, two, it's precisely because it has that large fan base which only compounds the problem. Because of that, North Dakota has gone out and sought hosting NCAA Regionals. And when it does, it will sell them out, even when they are a few hours away, like this year, in Sioux Falls, SOUTH Dakota.

All of this is well and good, except that when North Dakota is a lower seed, it gets a de facto home game when it doesn't "deserve" it.

And again — just we're loud and clear North Dakota fans — no one is blaming you, or blaming North Dakota. Read that last sentence again, just to be sure. OK? OK? Just pointing out the dilemma here.

So what's the point of this pre-amble?

If North Dakota makes the tournament, someone has to play them. And who that will be, becomes tricky. It can't be St. Cloud State, the No. 1 seed whose home is closest to Sioux Falls, because both teams are from the NCHC and that's not allowed. And neverminding that, the Committee won't put the top overall seed against North Dakota or anyone else than the lowest overall seed.

So St. Cloud State is going to be shipped East somewhere in this case.

If North Dakota doesn't make it, which is possible, St. Cloud State clearly plays the WCHA/Atlantic champ in Sioux Falls, and all problems solved.

Not a Herald article, but how's that grab your needs?

[Goon]

This looks like a winnable bracket. 

Sioux Falls
4. Ohio State vs. 14. North Dakota
6. Minnesota State vs. 11. Clarkson

[SJHovey]

52 minutes ago, BarnWinterSportsEngelstad said:

Writer (Adam Wodon) spilled his ink in this article -- that Sioux Falls gives us a home game. We need to get there!!

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2018/03/12_Bracket-ABCs-March-Madness.php

The North Dakota Effect 

Ah, North Dakota, always making life miserable for everyone. Stop it. We kid because we love you. Win or lose, it's already the team everyone loves to hate. It's typical human nature when it comes to sports — a successful program, with a humongous fan base, is just prone to get irritated by. Take it as a compliment North Dakota fans.

That said, it's also the team everyone wants to avoid in the first round of the NCAAs. One, because it has a large fan base and is a pretty good team. But, two, it's precisely because it has that large fan base which only compounds the problem. Because of that, North Dakota has gone out and sought hosting NCAA Regionals. And when it does, it will sell them out, even when they are a few hours away, like this year, in Sioux Falls, SOUTH Dakota.

All of this is well and good, except that when North Dakota is a lower seed, it gets a de facto home game when it doesn't "deserve" it.

And again — just we're loud and clear North Dakota fans — no one is blaming you, or blaming North Dakota. Read that last sentence again, just to be sure. OK? OK? Just pointing out the dilemma here.

So what's the point of this pre-amble?

If North Dakota makes the tournament, someone has to play them. And who that will be, becomes tricky. It can't be St. Cloud State, the No. 1 seed whose home is closest to Sioux Falls, because both teams are from the NCHC and that's not allowed. And neverminding that, the Committee won't put the top overall seed against North Dakota or anyone else than the lowest overall seed.

So St. Cloud State is going to be shipped East somewhere in this case.

If North Dakota doesn't make it, which is possible, St. Cloud State clearly plays the WCHA/Atlantic champ in Sioux Falls, and all problems solved.

Not a Herald article, but how's that grab your needs?

What Wodon is really worried about is his beloved Cornell getting sent to Sioux Falls with us waiting for them.

[siouxfan512]

22 minutes ago, Goon said:

This looks like a winnable bracket. 

Sioux Falls
4. Ohio State vs. 14. North Dakota
6. Minnesota State vs. 11. Clarkson

Just need to get there!!! So amped up for this weekend. Hope they don't disappoint.

[Goon]

5 minutes ago, SJHovey said:

What Wodon is really worried about is his beloved Cornell getting sent to Sioux Falls with us waiting for them.

Why do you think that he's so opposed to the NCAA first round being on campus? 

[BarnWinterSportsEngelstad]

3 minutes ago, Goon said:

Why do you think that he's so opposed to the NCAA first round being on campus? 

UND would outbid others.

[brianvf]

Wodon should check out how many years BC and BU get to stay on the East coast for an essential "home" game in the NCAA's.

[stoneySIOUX]

1 minute ago, brianvf said:

Wodon should check out how many years BC and BU get to stay on the East coast for an essential "home" game in the NCAA's.

Just take it as a compliment and not sour grapes. No need for us to be defensive.

[sprig]

2 minutes ago, brianvf said:

Wodon should check out how many years BC and BU get to stay on the East coast for an essential "home" game in the NCAA's.

Closer than Grand Forks to Sioux Falls. He's a bit geographically challenged. Of course many regional sites that have North Dakota in it have been defacto home games for the Sioux,since this is the only fan base that shows up.

[Frozen4sioux]

8 minutes ago, brianvf said:

Wodon should check out how many years BC and BU get to stay on the East coast for an essential "home" game in the NCAA's.

These guys defended the east coast regional sites as "not an issue" for years... especially when Schloss has come with research and stats to prove the issue.

Fforward to these years UND hosting in Fargo and Sioux Falls....   suddenly its a "problem"... 

Thus is why its tough to take them seriously.... and why we should be so damn thankfull we still have Brad working the UND beat and salvaging any real college hockey journalism.

 

[siouxforce19]

22 minutes ago, brianvf said:

Wodon should check out how many years BC and BU get to stay on the East coast for an essential "home" game in the NCAA's.

My response to him is: Sorry our fans go to games. 

[siouxforce19]

Worcester, Mass and Manchester, NH (frequent regional sites) are both closer to all the Boston schools than Fargo is to Grand Forks. (Manchester is 40 minutes and you pass Worcester on the way to Boston from Manchester. )

Must have missed the outrage with those sites. 

It all comes down to the fact that east coast fans are too lazy to get in a car and drive 40 minutes to a game. 

[Big Green]

University of North Dakota where every game is a home game.

#1 Seeds should be hosting Regional s, hopefully UND beats a higher seed in the first round and helps put a end to the "Neutral site" Regional s

[Siouxperfan7]

3 minutes ago, Big Green said:

University of North Dakota where every game is a home game.

#1 Seeds should be hosting Regional s, hopefully UND beats a higher seed in the first round and helps put a end to the "Neutral site" Regional s

If what happened to Providence in 2015 isn't going to change their minds about "neutral site" regional s, not sure what would.  Remember, Providence wasn't a host school but got put in the regional in Providence as a 4 seed to help boost attendance.  Basically playing a home game when they didn't earn it.  Not because they were the 4 seed, but because they did not bid for a regional but got a regional in their backyard.  And they obviously benefited by it by advancing to the Forzen Four and eventually winning it all.

Its an unfair advantage if UND get in the tournament and  a #1 seed has to play basically a road game.  But that's the reality of it.  And if no other team west of Allentown PA is going to make off campus bids to host, UND will continue to make the playoffs and be playing "home" games in either Sioux Falls or Fargo.