Dave Berger

NCHC Frozen Faceoff Preview: North Dakota vs. St. Cloud State Discuss. Dave

NCHC Frozen Faceoff Preview: North Dakota vs. St. Cloud State Discuss. Dave

Jim can certainly shed more light on this, but this is how he explains his methodology on the website: Each forecast is based on at least one million monte carlo simulations of the games in the described period. For each simulation, the PairWise Ranking (PWR) is calculated and the results tallied. The probabilities presented in the forecasts are the share of simulations in which a particular outcome occurred. The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don’t simulate ties or home ice advantage. I'm assuming that CHN runs their simulations as a "coin flip" (i.e. the two teams in question have an equal chance of winning the game), but I haven't done any digging into that. Dave

What was the committee supposed to do? Wisconsin was the #1 overall seed and thus were placed in the closest regional (Resch Center in Green Bay, WI, with Michigan Tech as the host school). Cornell took the Badgers to three overtimes in the regional final before falling 1-0. The 2006 Frozen Four was played at the Bradley Center (Milwaukee, Wisconsin). Incidentally, North Dakota hosted the 2006 West Regional at Ralph Engelstad Arena that season. The other participating teams in Grand Forks? Minnesota, Michigan, and Holy Cross. Dave

That was in 2007-2008. The Badgers went 15-16-7 but were still high enough in the Pairwise to get in as an at-large bid. They were placed in their regional (Midwest Regional at the Kohl Center) as the host school and were a #3 seed (which tells you about where they were in the Pairwise). Granted, three of the #4 seeds were tournament championship autobids - Princeton (ECAC, 21-13-0), Niagara (CHA, 22-10-4), and Air Force (Atlantic Hockey, 21-11-6) - but Wisconsin was still ranked higher than at-large Notre Dame (CCHA, 24-15-4). The committee changed the rule shortly after that season to only consider teams with a .500 record or above. Dave

And here's a real-world example from 2008-2009: #3 Minnesota (10-3-5) came to the Ralph on January 9th and 10th, 2009. North Dakota crushed the Gophers (6-3, 6-1) and sent them into a tailspin (Minnesota went 7-10-2 down the stretch and lost the WCHA Final Five Thursday evening play-in game at Xcel Energy Center). By the time the weekend's games had all been played, Minnesota was tied for 15th in the Pairwise with Ohio State and Wisconsin. The only auto-bid that took away a spot that year was Bemidji State (CHA), so the top fifteen teams in the Pairwise were going to make the NCAA tournament. According to the Pairwise, Ohio State won the tiebreaker over both Minnesota and Wisconsin. Oh, and did I mention that the University of Minnesota was hosting the West Regional at Mariucci Arena in Minneapolis that season? There were plenty of people who were suggesting that the committee would move the Gophers ahead of Ohio State for financial/attendance purposes, but it didn't happen. This is why I believe in the system wholeheartedly. Q.E.D. Dave

Once the field is selected (a combination of auto-bids and at-large bids ranked by the Pairwise), teams have been moved around within their seeding bands for attendance purposes. Since the mathematical formula (PWR) was developed and made public, there has never been an instance of a team being included in the tourney field over another, more worthy team for financial reasons. And I, for one, am glad for that. In or out, it's all about the math. No more smoke-filled rooms for me. Dave

NCHC Playoff Preview: North Dakota vs. Omaha Discuss. Dave

NCHC Playoff Preview: North Dakota vs. Omaha Discuss. Dave

The First-Round League Playoff Series: Why Is It So Difficult To Sweep? Discuss. Dave

Tickets are sold. Thank you for all of the interest! Dave

TWO tickets to UND vs. Omaha (NCHC Quarterfinals) at Ralph Engelstad Arena on Saturday, March 10th. Third row of Section 306 (seats are together, and a view from the seats is attached). North Dakota shoots on this end twice. Great view of the ice and player benches. $50 for the pair ($25 each, but not interested in splitting them up at this point). Ticketmaster has upper level seats listed for $22.50, but once you include all of the fees (service fee, facility charge, and order processing), you'd pay $67.95 for two tickets. I am in Grand Forks and can meet to exchange, or I can leave them at will call if you pay with PayPal or Venmo. I also have them listed on various Facebook groups, so act quickly! Please comment below or send me a text if you are interested. Thank you! Dave

This is happening today (Saturday, March 3rd) from 3:00-6:00 p.m. at El Roco in Grand Forks. Free appetizers, fantastic door prizes (a photo is attached), and a chance to meet fans on both sides of this rivalry. View the Challenge Cup and take a bus to and from the game. Ages 21+, no cover. Hope to see you all there! Dave