2020 Dumpster Fire (Enter at your own risk)

[Siouxperman8]

1 hour ago, bison73 said:

Most businesses order on a "just in time" need basis. Supply chains are geared to that so there really isnt any excess inventory.  When an event like this happens it throws the supply chain out of whack right on down to the raw materials to make said products.

Hence the need to flatten the curve and give the supply chain a chance to get ahead of a surge.  

The hard part now is figuring out when we are ready to open things up and how fast.

[dynato]

Just now, Cratter said:

That would be the same nationwide and already built into the data.

To be fair, the other states have had more time than ours to buff out the initial curve making outliers negligible. To compare to national data, what isn't built in to the data is the time lag. Thus comparing recent testing data in ND, to the national average, allows for a better comparison. 

Starting from day 1 (40 days ago): Average positive cases/day = 14
Starting from day 30 (10 days ago): Average positive cases/day = 31
Starting from day 35 (5 days ago): Average positive cases/day = 49
Data from early on naturally becomes irrelevant.

[Oxbow6]

[Cratter]

19 minutes ago, dynato said:

To be fair, the other states have had more time than ours to buff out the initial curve making outliers negligible.

So you're saying North Dakotas first test was how many days behind the national average?

 

[SIOUXFAN97]

9 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

been wondering the same thing...has the lockdown just put off the inevitable?  when we get back to normal we will see a spike and deaths and according to a lot of losers out there it will be all trumps fault for letting us go on living our lives.

[Cratter]

California has about an 11% test positivity rate.

Quote

California has reported 26,182 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 890 deaths as of Wednesday (April 15), according to the California Department of Public Health (CDPH). However, data from Johns Hopkins University show 28,196 cases and 976 deaths in the state as of Friday (April 17).

This makes California 6th in the list of states with the most U.S. coronavirus cases. 

So far, labs in the state have tested more than 246,400 people for COVID-19 as of Tuesday (April 14), according to CDPH. Of the tests conducted, results from 7,200 are pending.

 

[wasmania]

On 4/18/2020 at 12:31 PM, wasmania said:

not so much advocating as resignedly accepting that our lifestyles will likely need to change until vaccine or effective treatment is developed.   Maybe for a deeply rural state like North Dakota people will resist this consequences be damned, but the tone elsewhere, especially  in the major cities  and among those folks who can choose whether to use  public transport,  go to big events, travel freely, there is likely to be alot of people who simply will not resume their past behavior.  So back to normal may be kind of moot.  UND hockey will still sell out.  Will Madison Square Garden?  Business economics will change given the consumer behavior changes.   Calls to 'open up the states' by decree don't seem to get this.  

This article is a better explanation of my attempt above

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-do-we-overcome-fear-americans-need-confidence-before-life-can-return-to-normal/2020/04/18/0b6ed6b8-80b7-11ea-9040-68981f488eed_story.html

[The Sicatoka]

This is the classic band aid problem: 

Tear it off fast with high intensity for not long or tear it off slow with lower intensity for a longer time.

Either way the band aid comes off. 

Here, the area under that flattened curve is the same: society is exposed and the herd immunity is built. 

[LuvHockey]

Also, stop with the political stuff.  This thread is significantly better when people discuss the problems at hand without harping on this side vs that side.  It doesn't matter if you are red or blue, this is an issue of red, white, and blue.  Americans are losing their jobs and their life savings, and Americans are dying.

Amen

[The Sicatoka]

About my band aid analogy:

I find when you go slow there comes a point where you look at what’s left and just rip it off because you understand the pain to this point. 

We’ve protected the medical infrastructure from an overwhelming fast blast; when do we just tear off what is left of the “band aid” to protect the rest of the economy and society.

Remember: herd immunity requires the herd to be exposed. And I see herd immunity coming and being the solution long before a proven vaccine. 

[SWSiouxMN]

11 minutes ago, The Sicatoka said:

About my band aid analogy:

I find when you go slow there comes a point where you look at what’s left and just rip it off because you understand the pain to this point. 

We’ve protected the medical infrastructure from an overwhelming fast blast; when do we just tear off what is left of the “band aid” to protect the rest of the economy and society.

Remember: herd immunity requires the herd to be exposed. And I see herd immunity coming and being the solution long before a proven vaccine. 

Are we looking at 50 band aids or 1 giant one. 

[iramurphy]

2 hours ago, SIOUXFAN97 said:

been wondering the same thing...has the lockdown just put off the inevitable?  when we get back to normal we will see a spike and deaths and according to a lot of losers out there it will be all trumps fault for letting us go on living our lives.

Knock off the political crap. The majority of people are mature enough to do that. Give it a try. 

[iramurphy]

3 minutes ago, keikla said:

I think that definitely has to be decided on a state/regional level.  

I agree. The challenge is timing. 

[UND1983]

2 minutes ago, iramurphy said:

Knock off the political crap. The majority of people are mature enough to do that. Give it a try. 

He also had a point in there that could be addressed.  Just because he used our Presidents name doesn't mean the post was worthless.

[Kab]

People are getting tired of the TV coverage of this

they just want to get back to normal

common sense should prevail, if you are healthy and can keep your distance and use precautions you should be able to work

same with employers

those that are vulnerable stay home

your shoes probably won’t fit me so don’t try make me wear them

 

[iramurphy]

3 minutes ago, UND1983 said:

He also had a point in there that could be addressed.  Just because he used our Presidents name doesn't mean the post was worthless.

I agree, but the political comment added nothing and many of us in the medical field who are willing to share thoughts, information and especially keikla’s NewYork experience are not willing to continue on this site if that crap gets going again. We can go back to PM’s between us because she has had a medical life changing experience in many ways similar to a soldier’s combat experience. I am learning from her despite almost 40 yrs experience including ER, ICU and combat as a medical officer. If someone else’s political rants are more relevant then what she is sharing then I’m on the wrong page. I’ve also learned a lot from business owners, employers and the rest of you sharing experiences and opinions. I’ve learned absolutely nothing from the political comments. 

[Oxbow6]

37 minutes ago, keikla said:

I think that definitely has to be decided on a state/regional level.  

 

34 minutes ago, iramurphy said:

Knock off the political crap. The majority of people are mature enough to do that. Give it a try. 

MI, FL, VA, TX, MN, SD.........

Most citizens of this country feel the governors didn't get the memo on the bolded part. Issue is most of the frustrated citizens about how and when we get back to normal are not frustrated with all the governors. 

[iramurphy]

2 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

 

MI, FL, VA, TX, MN, SD.........

Most citizens of this country feel the governors didn't get the memo on the bolded part. Issue is most of the frustrated citizens about how and when we get back to normal are not frustrated with all the governors. 

This is likely the toughest decision these governors have had to make. I think it has to be piecemeal and organized based on the state/region. Each state is also going to have a plan in place if the return to work causes a surge. We are going to have to be disciplined as a society to follow the return to work plan to decrease risks and chance of failure. Will we have the resources if the plan includes regular antibody or CV-19 testing. It’s likely the media and the political parties will criticize  because there will still be new infections. The fact is, the longer this goes on the shut down becomes more than an economic emergency it is a threat to people’s health if people and businesses have no income and the food pantries can’t keep up with the demand. 

[Oxbow6]

Unless the federal government is going to just continue to print money to bailout healthcare systems the current model of healthcare delivery that has occurred in this country over the past 8+ weeks is unsustainable. Just like opening up the economy we have to open up healthcare systems so they aren't going to collapse or downsize under financial strain. Losing $3 in normal generated revenue to every $1 spent on COVID management isn't going to balance the books.

[SiouxVolley]

 

The Gilead Sciences drug RDM has shown good success against COVID.  The FDA might insist on more studies though.  GKLD has had breakthoughs for AIDs  and Hep C too and is a fairly sound company.   Donald Rumsfeld used to run it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/opinion/remdesivir-coronavirus.amp.html

Another drug by CYDY has given fantastic results in ventitalator cases, but need we more weeks

Would be huge breakthrough with two drugs for the different stages.

[Cratter]

2 hours ago, The Sicatoka said:

About my band aid analogy:

I find when you go slow there comes a point where you look at what’s left and just rip it off because you understand the pain to this point. 

We’ve protected the medical infrastructure from an overwhelming fast blast; when do we just tear off what is left of the “band aid” to protect the rest of the economy and society.

Remember: herd immunity requires the herd to be exposed. And I see herd immunity coming and being the solution long before a proven vaccine. 

Supposedly we ripped the first half the bandaid off slow. Now some are ready for the bandaid to come off quickly.

If you ask me that's the good compromise.

We've pretty much proven we have enough "hospital capacity" now.

[UNDlaw80]

48 minutes ago, keikla said:

There seems to be a general trend that those states with protests are the ones without many cases.  While quarantining absolutely sucks (my husband is going stir crazy at a month+ of being at home and not working), I haven't heard much rumbling about protesting in NY, because it's obvious to most people here that covid is a huge issue.  That's what makes Michigan such an interesting dynamic to me.  While obviously not NYC metro, they have 2300 covid deaths in the past month, with social distancing in place.  I wouldn't expect protesting with that, even if the numbers do appear to be declining.

 

I wouldn't look too much into these protests, at least at this moment in time.  They are basically MAGA rallies right now.    

That said, the more this drags out, I could certainly envision the typical american being more apt to protest.  

[Oxbow6]

5 minutes ago, UNDlaw80 said:

 

I wouldn't look too much into these protests, at least at this moment in time.  They are basically MAGA rallies right now.    

That said, the more this drags out, I could certainly envision the typical american being more apt to protest.  

Please expound on this.......

[Cratter]

I'm wondering if this is starting to apply...

Contrary to popular opinion, Big companies (walmart, facebook, apple, google etc) love regulations and red tape.

They are usually the only ones with the capital and resources available to overcome them thus limiting competition.

Big banks (et al) are like keep this shutdown going!

A rising tide lifts all boats.

The big boats are already out at sea when the tide starts to lower.

[Nodak78]

19 minutes ago, UNDlaw80 said:

 

I wouldn't look too much into these protests, at least at this moment in time.  They are basically MAGA rallies right now.    

That said, the more this drags out, I could certainly envision the typical american being more apt to protest.  

Is that political.  Asking for friend.