2020 Dumpster Fire (Enter at your own risk)

[CarpeRemote]

54 minutes ago, Bison06 said:

A couple ways, if the person reporting on it has a specific way of viewing it.

First way would be by reporting absolute numbers, which is what most papers are doing. 100 tests were done, we found one positive. Media reports we found one positive. 1000 tests were done we found 10 positives. Media reports we have 10x as many positive cases now than we did before. Percentage wise, it’s the same.

If, as has been suggested, we are testing people multiple times and they come back positive multiple times and each time they are counted as positive. Then that’s obvious how that inflates the data. 
 

Hospitalizations and deaths are really the only stat I care to see and even deaths are under major scrutiny in my book as they’ve admitted to not distinguishing between people who died with or people who died because of covid. 

 

From a decision making standpoint looking backward at deaths doesn’t really effect the math used for decision making. What matters is how many new positives we are getting today vs yesterday. 
 

I see your point with flaws in counting a positive twice inflates overall infections. But when this happens, pick any % of double dipping, the rate of transmission still doesn’t change appreciably as long as the error rate stays roughly the same. Modeling with large numbers will count those errors as noise, which it probably is in larger states. (Theoretically, a moderate non recurring double dip in a low population state could skew Rt for a few days but would push it the opposite direction a few days later)  

Not perfection but they are getting pretty good at considering what is important to interpret and how to do the math. 
 

Where we could/will see the “number of tests” skewing Rt data is if we start asking very large groups of asymptomatic people to test in a short period. Such as several universities testing entire student bodies in September. 

[SWSiouxMN]

 

Probably find out more on Monday but this is probably the first hint of what could come. 

[Oxbow6]

P

1 minute ago, SWSiouxMN said:

 

Probably find out more on Monday but this is probably the first hint of what could come. 

With that said the Fargo Smart Restart would have middle and high school kids distance learning only if starting today. Elementary.....hybrid.

[homer]

9 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

P

With that said the Fargo Smart Restart would have middle and high school kids distance learning only if starting today. Elementary.....hybrid.

May as well move baseball to the fall and football to the spring.  Not sure about volleyball.  

[SWSiouxMN]

11 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

P

With that said the Fargo Smart Restart would have middle and high school kids distance learning only if starting today. Elementary.....hybrid.

When does ND schools start again?  Has to pretty quick right?  

6 minutes ago, homer said:

May as well move baseball to the fall and football to the spring.  Not sure about volleyball.  

I would think that NDHSAA would have said something about that by now if they were going to do that.  Same with SDHSAA and MSHSL. 

 

[CarpeRemote]

15 minutes ago, petey23 said:

As the media has switched the narrative from number of deaths to number of positive cases they count on very few people asking why.

I realize that number of deaths lag from the number of cases but you will never see it noted that the death rate over the last month seems to have shrunk by about 300% from .05 to .017. 

If you look at the numbers based on positive cases and number of deaths from the start up until a month ago about 50,000 more deaths would have been expected between June 22 and today if the rate had held. 

 

True,
I guess it matters what media someone uses. I see that pointed out repeatedly.

It’s easy to see that the increased testing is on healthier people, therefore lower death rate. We know with therapeutics we are losing a lower % of the at-risk.
 

But there two sets of stats, the at-risk, and everyone else. Despite better therapeutics a relatively large % of “at-risk” get sick as hell, so  they aren’t eating out or going to sporting events, and we shouldn’t reasonably expect differently. 
 

 For the most part,  at-risk folks are retirees with money and time, and the economy be broken without them.  It is what it is and it won’t change until a vaccine. 
 

[Oxbow6]

19 minutes ago, homer said:

May as well move baseball to the fall and football to the spring.  Not sure about volleyball.  

Not a bad idea.  Kids have been doing strength and conditioning plus BB and VB open gyms in the FM area for weeks.

[streetsahead]

1 hour ago, NoiseInsideMyHead said:

Not "anti-mask" so much as "anti-mask mandate."

Just like any other subset of the human race with whom you happen to disagree, we don't need your understanding. We just want your tolerance.

Mandates and brow-beating are hardly the way forward. Let people decide for themselves, and rest easy knowing that pre-mandate, you already had upwards of 60% or more voluntary mask compliance. That significantly reduces the risk of spread. Why is that not good enough?

Wear a mask. Shop at stores that require masks. If you see me coming, tighten your mask, cross the street. Whatever. Won't hurt my feelings a bit. Just stop the incessant nagging, admit that you have zero idea about me and my character or whether I take unnecessary risks with friends and loved ones, quit trying to flex your faux moral superiority, and mix in some basic human decency and respect for your fellow man.

I think the disconnect comes from the fact that if you accept the premise that the masks are not to protect you but to protect everyone else from your respiratory droplets, etc then letting people decide for themselves undermines the whole idea. And I understand that you may not accept that premise and there has been lots of contradictory information presented regarding the efficacy of masks and why they should or shouldn't be used. I'm just saying I think that's the reason maskers are so upset with anti-maskers and vice-versa (for lack of better terms). There's just a fundamental disconnect.

[Oxbow6]

89% of parents who responded the the Bismarck public school survey stated  they were comfortable sending their kids back to school. 47% without reservations.  42% with precautions in place.

[BarnWinterSportsEngelstad]

1 hour ago, SWSiouxMN said:

When does ND schools start again?  Has to pretty quick right?  

About a month from now.

[Oxbow6]

"In the long run this is the quickest way to ending the Covid  pandemic "......Walz on the mask mandate.

I'm old enough to remember when sheltering in place  for 3 months and destroying the economy was way to go.

[Bison06]

11 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

"In the long run this is the quickest way to ending the Covid  pandemic "......Walz on the mask mandate.

I'm old enough to remember when sheltering in place  for 3 months and destroying the economy was way to go.

I think that is a fair question for Walz. Why was masking and socially distancing not the plan from the get go?
Lockdown and crippling the economy while ruining countless lives seemed like a better plan?

[CarpeRemote]

1 hour ago, streetsahead said:

I think the disconnect comes from the fact that if you accept the premise that the masks are not to protect you but to protect everyone else from your respiratory droplets, etc then letting people decide for themselves undermines the whole idea. And I understand that you may not accept that premise and there has been lots of contradictory information presented regarding the efficacy of masks and why they should or shouldn't be used. I'm just saying I think that's the reason maskers are so upset with anti-maskers and vice-versa (for lack of better terms). There's just a fundamental disconnect.

Good way of putting it. 

[CarpeRemote]

5 minutes ago, Bison06 said:

I think that is a fair question for Walz. Why was masking and socially distancing not the plan from the get go?
Lockdown and crippling the economy while ruining countless lives seemed like a better plan?

Because he isn’t Zoltan? 

[TheFlop]

10 minutes ago, CarpeRemote said:

Because he isn’t Zoltan? 

Maybe he still isn't Zoltan. 

[BarnWinterSportsEngelstad]

One of the scariest things about coronavirus is how wide-ranging the illness' symptoms can be, running the gamut from a mild cough to major organ failure. And while having mild symptoms may seem preferable, new research suggests that having a less severe case of coronavirus could shorten the period during which you're immune in the future.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/if-your-coronavirus-case-is-mild-it-s-not-all-good-news-study-shows/ar-BB173TjY?ocid=msedgdhp

[Bison06]

20 minutes ago, CarpeRemote said:

Because he isn’t Zoltan? 

So a mask is somehow a new invention that medical professional didn’t know was helpful? Not buying that.

 

5 minutes ago, BarnWinterSportsEngelstad said:

One of the scariest things about coronavirus is how wide-ranging the illness' symptoms can be, running the gamut from a mild cough to major organ failure. And while having mild symptoms may seem preferable, new research suggests that having a less severe case of coronavirus could shorten the period during which you're immune in the future.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/if-your-coronavirus-case-is-mild-it-s-not-all-good-news-study-shows/ar-BB173TjY?ocid=msedgdhp

In other words, we know nothing about this virus, but we will draw conclusion that scare people.

[BarnWinterSportsEngelstad]

17 minutes ago, Bison06 said:

In other words, we know nothing about this virus, but we will draw conclusion that scare people.

Masks, washing hands, social distancing might help!

 

Coronavirus Model Decreases Death Projection as Mask Wearing Increases

The model, which is run by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, predicts nearly 220,000 deaths in the U.S. by Nov. 1. That number is down nearly 5,000 from its previous estimate a week ago.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/coronavirus-model-decreases-death-projection-as-mask-wearing-increases/ar-BB1743Rk?ocid=msedgdhp

[SiouxForever]

Can’t wait to see what’s in store for August, September, October. 

I predict more fear, more make believe racist issues and protests. Then a media narrative of phase 2 wave of the virus and a must lockdown 2.0 

Lot to be greatful in America and some beautiful scenery to expolore. However, in 2020, the price you pay is politics. What a world  

Thank god NHL and more sports will be back  I could see the NBA pulling out  

 

[Sioux>Bison]

4 hours ago, yzerman19 said:

Deaths and ICU for people under 75 would seem like a good marker 

Why haven’t we implemented a stay at home and no contact order for everyone 60+. The rest of us can then resume our lives and kids go back to schools. We can’t spread the disease to old people if they are all at home! This craziness needs to stop!

all fat people and unhealthy can stay home too!

[BarnWinterSportsEngelstad]

Will airline negative #'s hurt UND's Aerospace enrollment.

United Airlines worries travel recovery will stall until there’s a COVID vaccine
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/united-airlines-worries-travel-recovery-will-stall-until-there-s-a-covid-vaccine/ar-BB174hoY?ocid=msedgdhp
Their only jab at the competition was in making the claim that the carrier outperformed peers with a smaller loss.

[NoiseInsideMyHead]

3 hours ago, streetsahead said:

I think the disconnect comes from the fact that if you accept the premise that the masks are not to protect you but to protect everyone else from your respiratory droplets, etc then letting people decide for themselves undermines the whole idea. And I understand that you may not accept that premise and there has been lots of contradictory information presented regarding the efficacy of masks and why they should or shouldn't be used. I'm just saying I think that's the reason maskers are so upset with anti-maskers and vice-versa (for lack of better terms). There's just a fundamental disconnect.

Here's the problem, though. In this country, we honor, cherish and respect notions such as due process of law and the fact that one is presumed innocent until proven guilty.

To insist that I take steps to protect anyone from "my droplets" without so much as a shred of evidence that "my droplets" are harmful is tantamount to punishing me for a crime that not only have I not committed, but for which I have been neither charged nor tried.

If someone wants to be safe from others' droplets, the onus is on THEM to don a mask. I don't think that's particularly revolutionary or obscene.

[NoiseInsideMyHead]

1 hour ago, CarpeRemote said:

Because he isn’t Zoltan? 

Shibby.

[Hayduke1]

10 minutes ago, NoiseInsideMyHead said:

Here's the problem, though. In this country, we honor, cherish and respect notions such as due process of law and the fact that one is presumed innocent until proven guilty.

To insist that I take steps to protect anyone from "my droplets" without so much as a shred of evidence that "my droplets" are harmful is tantamount to punishing me for a crime that not only have I not committed, but for which I have been neither charged nor tried.

If someone wants to be safe from others' droplets, the onus is on THEM to don a mask. I don't think that's particularly revolutionary or obscene.

No.  It's just selfish.  Very narcissistic.

Maybe the hermit life for you would do us all good.

Heck. If you're in North Dakota, you're almost there.  

Lol. 

[NoiseInsideMyHead]

12 minutes ago, Hayduke1 said:

No.  It's just selfish.  Very narcissistic.

Maybe the hermit life for you would do us all good.

Heck. If you're in North Dakota, you're almost there.  

Lol. 

You know what's selfish? Making me adjust my routine and my way of life to acquiesce to your borderline irrational fears of a risk that is laughably small and which you can minimize by making your own decisions.

And f*** you, you judgmental prick.