homer Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 1 hour ago, homer said: That interview was awful. Fully agree with the mayor that at some point, people need to be allowed to make their own decision I don’t have to go to Vegas if it suddenly a casino suddenly turns on their slot machines again Based on economic info a fair chunk of the population doesn’t have money to go their anyhow My opinion is even after things open up it is going to be extremely challenging getting people who lost their jobs to actually go back to work and not for fear of getting sick. “The anger came from employees who’d determined they’d make more moneyby collecting unemployment benefits than their normal paychecks.” Quote is from the article above. She won’t be the first to feel this pain. Not sure what motivation we have provided for people to actually go back to work.
dynato Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 Just now, Oxbow6 said: So we are learning that the infectious rate is 50-85x higher than advertised......... Keep in mind early results and testing are all incredibly crude (see the 2M projected deaths). This study was one of the first of its kind for COVID. The Stanford study that got the 50-85x infectious rate had severe selectivity bias. They got their participants from a facebook advertisement, who were located in a covid hot spot, and were able to reject participants from certain localities. Preliminary peer review has a lot of mixed responses, here is the most positive, non-biased one I found: "The study confirms the widely-held belief that far more people than originally thought have been infected with the coronavirus, said Arthur Reingold, an epidemiology professor at UC Berkeley who was not involved in the study, but it doesn’t mean the shelter-in-place order will be lifted any time soon. “The idea this would be a passport to going safely back to work and getting us up and running has two constraints: we do not know if antibodies protect you and for how long, and a very small percentage of the population even has antibodies,” he said. Even with the adjusted rate of infection as found by the study, only 3% of the population has coronavirus – that means 97% does not. To reach herd immunity 50% or more of the population would have to be infected and recovered from coronavirus." It is easier to poke holes in someone else's research than to conduct your own. Hopefully this leads to more immediate research, testing, vetting, and scrutiny of serology with respect to COVID.
Walsh Hall Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 Cuomo says that 13.9% of New Yorkers have had it based on antibody study. That's statewide. Logic would indicate that NYC would be significantly higher.
dynato Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, homer said: “The anger came from employees who’d determined they’d make more moneyby collecting unemployment benefits than their normal paychecks.” Quote is from the article above. She won’t be the first to feel this pain. Not sure what motivation we have provided for people to actually go back to work. After the 2008 recession, the unemployment benefits were extended up to 53 weeks. The average time on unemployment was 34 weeks if i recall correctly. Employers like to run off skeleton crews. Meaning a portion of the employees will not return back to the business solely because it saves the owner operating costs. A portion of businesses will not open up unless they know they will have consistent business (ie public sentiment needs to be pro consumerism). A portion of employees will not return back to the workforce until they know they will be protected. A lot of factors go into it
dynato Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, Walsh Hall said: Cuomo says that 13.9% of New Yorkers have had it based on antibody study. That's statewide. Logic would indicate that NYC would be significantly higher. It is 21.2% in NYC, nearly 50% larger infection rate. Using the same logic would indicate that the infection rate is significantly lower than 13.9% in cities outside of NYC. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Oxbow6 Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 In ND....32 positive cases today. One death. If we have 33 cases tomorrow do we reset the "2 weeks"? Bigger question.....will Doug find these numbers "disappointing"? 1
Cratter Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 Anderson Cooper should ask a governor if they have blood on their hands because they have made it illegal to be outside at a park while studies show AIr Conditioning (I'm assuming any recirculation of air?) spreads the virus.
Walsh Hall Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said: In ND....32 positive cases today. One death. If we have 33 cases tomorrow do we reset the "2 weeks"? Bigger question.....will Doug find these numbers "disappointing"? He found the number of tests conducted disappointing, not the results of the tests. He wants a larger sample size.
Cratter Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 Gov. Burgum saved lives by not ordering shelter in place. 1 1
Cratter Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 How many NYC lives could have been saved by encouraging people to get out of those highrise building and get some fresh air and Vitamin D at Central Park? 1 4
petey23 Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 47 minutes ago, Walsh Hall said: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/she-got-a-paycheck-protection-loan-her-employees-hate-her-for-it.html More "unintended consequences" that was completely foreseeable to anyone with common sense... I believe unemployment benefits are now at 39 weeks. Once the Covid Virus stabilizes a bit and companies start to re-open I would imagine that unemployment will also put the requirement back in that you must prove that you are looking for employment. Health Insurance coverage is also a factor. I do not remember off the top of my head how many months an employer is required to continue paying healthcare for employees who they dismiss or essentially quit but I do know that they can choose to stay on the health plan they are on but have to pay for it.(COBRA?) Paying people more to not work than to work is certainly problematic.
Walsh Hall Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Cratter said: How many NYC lives could have been saved by encouraging people to get out of those highrise building and get some fresh air and Vitamin D at Central Park? Hard to say. NYC is obviously a very different situation that almost anyway else in the world. My back of the napkin math indicates a fatality rate of around .5% if the percentages above are accurate. That's around 3 times higher than the typical flu. No doubt a very nasty bug. Still seems to indicate to me that the folks who are vulnerable should be sheltered in place, other folks carry on while exercising caution and with reasonable precautions.
SWSiouxMN Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 45 minutes ago, Walsh Hall said: Cuomo says that 13.9% of New Yorkers have had it based on antibody study. That's statewide. Logic would indicate that NYC would be significantly higher. 37 minutes ago, dynato said: It is 21.2% in NYC, nearly 50% larger infection rate. Using the same logic would indicate that the infection rate is significantly lower than 13.9% in cities outside of NYC. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ This is straight up insane % of infections. I do wonder if they had the breakdown of people who knew they had it (got tested, positive result) vs didn't know (couldn't get tested). 1
Nodak78 Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 I sure as hell hope ND did follow this policy for elderly being tested positive and then place them in a nursing home. https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/cuomo-coronavirus-nursing-home-policy-proves-tragic-goodwin/
SWSiouxMN Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 In a shock to no one, MN will announce distance learning for the rest of the school year today. Nobles county continues to be a massive hotspot, added 70 new cases now. They are now at 196.
yzerman19 Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 I find it interesting that two heavily populated states with very left governors have seen such dramatically different results...CA and NY... If the Federal government is so culpable, why are these otherwise similar states having such different results? NYC is more dense than The Bay Area and LA, but not on the order of magnitude of the covid delta... could it be that healthcare is local and local decision making, such as the mayor of SF shutting things down immediately is actually the driver? I mean the USA is bigger than Europe...I say you compare States to Coubtries over there...Germany much different results than Italy, just like CA and NY.... 1
Oxbow6 Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 31 minutes ago, Walsh Hall said: He found the number of tests conducted disappointing, not the results of the tests. He wants a larger sample size. He was disappointed in both. Your increase in sample size will result in increase positives even with a positive rate that's been fairly consistent day to day in ND.
yzerman19 Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 CA trending wrong direction over last 2 days with total admissions and ICUs outpacing discharges for first time in 3 weeks
Oxbow6 Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, yzerman19 said: CA trending wrong direction over last 2 days with total admissions and ICUs outpacing discharges for first time in 3 weeks Cancel Thanksgiving 1
dynato Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, Nodak78 said: I sure as hell hope ND did follow this policy for elderly being tested positive and then place them in a nursing home. https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/cuomo-coronavirus-nursing-home-policy-proves-tragic-goodwin/ Are you saying its outrageous to send a patient who tested positive back to where they live if they do not require medical attention? Or are you saying that it is impossible to quarantine the old and vulnerable, even if their home has medical professionals and basic medical care? What is your solution?
Oxbow6 Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 45 minutes ago, Cratter said: How many NYC lives could have been saved by encouraging people to get out of those highrise building and get some fresh air and Vitamin D at Central Park? As someone posted yesterday 70% of all MN deaths are those who Walz's extreme measures were supposed to help protect.....the vulnerable in assisted living facilities and and nursing homes. ......but close down schools for the year and frankly I'd be surprised if he allows MN K-12 schools to open in the fall.
Nodak78 Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 16 minutes ago, dynato said: Are you saying its outrageous to send a patient who tested positive back to where they live if they do not require medical attention? Or are you saying that it is impossible to quarantine the old and vulnerable, even if their home has medical professionals and basic medical care? What is your solution? If some tests positive you suggest placing them with the most at risk population? If your on healthcare find another solution.
jdub27 Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Oxbow6 said: So we are learning that the infectious rate is 50-85x higher than advertised......... Not sure which specific study you're referring to, but at least one or two of those studies are being scrutinized quite a bit for how poor the methodolgy used was.
NoiseInsideMyHead Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 3 hours ago, dynato said: For those of you curious about where the "two more weeks" keeps coming from, it is actually from the current (4-23-2020) set of federal criteria for opening up. If everyday is a new peak, then you will be in an infinite loop of two more weeks.https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/#criteria
Redneksioux Posted April 23, 2020 Posted April 23, 2020 20 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said: As someone posted yesterday 70% of all MN deaths are those who Walz's extreme measures were supposed to help protect.....the vulnerable in assisted living facilities and and nursing homes. ......but close down schools for the year and frankly I'd be surprised if he allows MN K-12 schools to open in the fall. The nursing homes appear to be scrambling to figure out how to prevent the infections from entering their facilities. Thankfully ND was one of the four states that will have mass testing at long term care facilities to weed out asymptomatic carriers. Even though we don't believe this is harmful to kids you still can't allow schools to become covid petri dishes. This would spread to all students' families since you can't isolate kids from their parents. We still need more PPE but with mass testing/contact tracing/quarantines for infected, schools should finally be allowed to open.
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