iramurphy Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 10 minutes ago, wasmania said: Defensiveness and condescension free discussion https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/14/coronavirus-models-ihme-ic/ Pretty good article. Underlines the complexity of your world. In my simple mind, it seems to me, the multiple ways epidemiologists and scientist are trying to summarize rapidly changing data without constant variables, from multiple sources. The multiple sources aren’t using the same parameters to measure and collect data and statistics. Then, they try to apply that information to select models and try to hit a moving target in an ever changing environment. You live in a complex world with a difficult task if this is your world.
UND1981 Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 I'm calling the Ralph tomorrow and requesting a 60 day extension to pay my ticket package. Anyone else feel the same way?? 1
Nodak78 Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 https://medium.com/@jbgeach/changing-the-goalposts-four-more-reasons-it-is-safe-to-open-america-560cfc0ab4c3 https://pjmedia.com/trending/heres-how-much-downstate-new-york-is-skewing-the-united-states-coronavirus-numbers/ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0
Old Fella Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 21 minutes ago, UND1981 said: I'm calling the Ralph tomorrow and requesting a 60 day extension to pay my ticket package. Anyone else feel the same way?? Have the 2020-2021 ticket packages been sent out?
Siouxphan27 Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 1 hour ago, wasmania said: Defensiveness and condescension free discussion https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/14/coronavirus-models-ihme-ic/ In summary: There are too many variables and too many unknowns to allow us to provide any accurate information other than to encourage the strictest of social distancing measures. Once there is enough hard data available and the trend becomes obvious, our models will also make sense, and not produce erratically variable daily results. 2
Nodak78 Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 31 minutes ago, keikla said: This is a very interesting look at the numbers. Too bad the guy had to add unneeded political commentary to it. It always makes me question the validity of how things were manipulated when I see that, regardless of which direction the commentary is skewing. I heard one reason Queens was hit so hard is two major airports. Seems to make sense. Keep up the fight, things are improving. 1
Kab Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 1 hour ago, UND1981 said: I'm calling the Ralph tomorrow and requesting a 60 day extension to pay my ticket package. Anyone else feel the same way?? I think they need to look at doing this makes no sense to pay then in 4 months seasons are changed and they need to do refunds
iramurphy Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 48 minutes ago, keikla said: This is a very interesting look at the numbers. Too bad the guy had to add unneeded political commentary to it. It always makes me question the validity of how things were manipulated when I see that, regardless of which direction the commentary is skewing. I have seen some similar studies that put New York City area, Seattle area and California in a separate group. I think the amount of travel from countries with high infection rates early on and populations are major factors but we will need to sort out all of the other variables to know what else could have been done, when it should have been done, what shouldn’t have been done and how to best prepare for future threats. I’m sure almost everyone else knows at least this much but the how going forward is the tough part. Which cities did better? Which countries did better? In the meantime, we struggle to find best treatment, and an effective vaccine as soon as possible. We also need to monitor best practice and most effective means of returning to work while at the same time we minimize risk, spread of the disease and death. I hope you are feeling better. Be safe.
choyt3 Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Old Fella said: Have the 2020-2021 ticket packages been sent out? I thought the email said it would be an online process this year.
SIOUXFAN97 Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 17 hours ago, Redneksioux said: If it’s not preventable then why test? Why close the business down? flatten the curve i guess but when the curve starts to flatten shouldn't we go back to work? or wait til that curve goes down to zero in five months??? 1
bison73 Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 4 hours ago, Redneksioux said: If covid19 is such a minor blip when you look at the big picture, how can you explain the worldwide shortage on ppe and certain meds? Most businesses order on a "just in time" need basis. Supply chains are geared to that so there really isnt any excess inventory. When an event like this happens it throws the supply chain out of whack right on down to the raw materials to make said products. 4
Old Fella Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 23 minutes ago, choyt3 said: I thought the email said it would be an online process this year. Thank You.
Old Fella Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 How essential was L&M Wind Power. Over a 2 day period 100 positive for virus. Testing done in GF. 7% positive.
NoiseInsideMyHead Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 28 minutes ago, SIOUXFAN97 said: flatten the curve i guess but when the curve starts to flatten shouldn't we go back to work? or wait til that curve goes down to zero in five months??? I've been saying for weeks that the lack of objective criteria for 'success' has done nothing but reduce "curve flattening" and "social distancing" to non-scientific, medically unsupported, populist drivel. 4
UND92,96 Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Old Fella said: How essential was L&M Wind Power. Over a 2 day period 100 positive for virus. Testing done in GF. 7% positive. A lot of people have been asking about how essential LM is/was, but Governor Burgum said in the press conference yesterday that the feds (Office of Homeland Security) consider them to be essential, and as such they would have been operating regardless of what state they were in. 1
UND92,96 Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 Interesting articles on how the controversial Swedish approach to the virus is going: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-controversial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective https://uk.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-sweden-stockholm-herd-immunity-144733606.html
Cratter Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 How many different tests are out there? Does ND have a lot of false negatives or others false positives? ND has usually had a 2% to 3% test-positive rate (Edit: I looked it up. True number is 4%). Quote According to the Tracking Project’s figures, nearly one in five people who get tested for the coronavirus in the United States is found to have it. In other words, the country has what is called a “test-positivity rate” of nearly 20 percent. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/610132/
dynato Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, NoiseInsideMyHead said: I've been saying for weeks that the lack of objective criteria for 'success' has done nothing but reduce "curve flattening" and "social distancing" to non-scientific, medically unsupported, populist drivel. The only objective criteria for success right now is our healthcare system not imploding. To say that curve flattening and social distancing is not medically supported is the true populist drivel. The theory of social distancing has been studied for at least the past century, especially since the outbreak of the Spanish Flu. A simple research journal search will show you that there has been at least 10,000 peer reviewed publications the subject. Here is a high level summary of social distancing theory that could help you argue your point for why social distancing is moot for our epidemic.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2877723/
NoiseInsideMyHead Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 Just now, dynato said: The only objective criteria for success right now is our healthcare system not imploding. To say that curve flattening and social distancing is not medically supported is the true populist drivel. The theory of social distancing has been studied for at least the past century, especially since the outbreak of the Spanish Flu. A simple research journal search will show you that there has been at least 10,000 peer reviewed publications the subject And just how is "not imploding" objective, and more importantly, how does your proffered standard inform the relaxation of lockdown and stay at home orders?
SIOUXFAN97 Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 25 minutes ago, Old Fella said: How essential was L&M Wind Power. Over a 2 day period 100 positive for virus. Testing done in GF. 7% positive. if they were closed down for a month do you think all those people would have locked themselves in their houses and not gone anywhere to spread/catch the 'rona? maybe it was a good thing they were still working instead of being on a month long paid vacation?...maybe instead of "just" a 100 we could have had 1000 cases? who knows?
dynato Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, Cratter said: How many different tests are out there? Does ND have a lot of false negatives or others false positives? ND has usually had a 2% to 3% test-positive rate. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/610132/ 424 tests were conducted as a response to the LM Windpower outbreak. 110 tests came back positive, results from 50 are still in progress. That is a rate of 25% minimum, which is more comparable to the national average. Keep in mind that the tests are likely only being administer to those with reasonable suspicion of having COVID. Selectivity bias plays a role here
Cratter Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 28 minutes ago, dynato said: which is more comparable to the national average. To date, North Dakota has issued 13,630 tests. 585 have come back positive. 4% test positive rate.
dynato Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 Just now, Cratter said: To date, North Dakota has issued 13,630 tests. 585 have come back positive. 4% test positive rate. All I can say is that toilet paper was practically sold out in our state before a case was even confirmed. Likely early on people were getting tested out of fear. The test positive rate will continue to climb as it spreads through our population. Especially with how prevalent in the population everyone thinks COVID is.
Cratter Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 1 minute ago, dynato said: All I can say is that toilet paper was practically sold out in our state before a case was even confirmed. Likely early on people were getting tested out of fear. That would be the same nationwide and already built into the data. Which wouldn't explain ND 4% vs suppose nationwide average of 20%.
Cratter Posted April 19, 2020 Posted April 19, 2020 South Carolina to reopen beaches and retail stores this week.
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