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Nicholls St., Round 1


bincitysioux

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Been doing some stat sheet scouting this evening, to get an idea of what to expect from Nicholls.  

The Colonels are literally 5th or 6th in virtually every statistical category in the 11 team Southland conference, with one exception being rushing offense. 

They like to run the ball as they led their conference in rushing.  This could potentially be a bad match up for us since UND would have finished 9th in the Big Sky in rushing defense.  In fact, we played the top 3 rushing Big Sky teams this year - Montana St., Cal Poly, and EWU.  We held the Bobcats a bit under their final season average, but both Poly and EWU ran wild against us.  Nicholls scored 33 of their 45 TDs this season on the ground.  

On the other hand, Nicholls is 9th in their league in pass offense.  They did get pretty efficient QB play, probably thanks in large part to solid running game all season.  UND had the #1 pass defense in the Big Sky, so this should favor us.

I would say UND needs to have faith in our secondary, stack the box, and make the QB beat them with his arm.

Sam Houston beat them 17-0 when they met.  They did it by holding Nicholls to 55 yards rushing, and forced 3 turnovers.

Buckle up for some turnovers in this game.  UND is -7 in turnover margin on the year, good for 13th of 14 Big Sky teams.  Nicholls is -5 on the year, 9th in the Southland.

Nicholls was 4-1 at home this year.  Their one loss at home came on homecoming in overtime to 5-7 Abiline Christian.

Overall, on paper they seem like two pretty evenly matched teams.  According to Massey, they are #30.  They have a very impressive win over Central Arkansas who is seeded in the playoff field.  

They seem alot like us, sort of all over the place.

I expect an entertaining game.

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32 minutes ago, bincitysioux said:

Been doing some stat sheet scouting this evening, to get an idea of what to expect from Nicholls.  

The Colonels are literally 5th or 6th in virtually every statistical category in the 11 team Southland conference, with one exception being rushing offense. 

They like to run the ball as they led their conference in rushing.  This could potentially be a bad match up for us since UND would have finished 9th in the Big Sky in rushing defense.  In fact, we played the top 3 rushing Big Sky teams this year - Montana St., Cal Poly, and EWU.  We held the Bobcats a bit under their final season average, but both Poly and EWU ran wild against us.  Nicholls scored 33 of their 45 TDs this season on the ground.  

On the other hand, Nicholls is 9th in their league in pass offense.  They did get pretty efficient QB play, probably thanks in large part to solid running game all season.  UND had the #1 pass defense in the Big Sky, so this should favor us.

I would say UND needs to have faith in our secondary, stack the box, and make the QB beat them with his arm.

Sam Houston beat them 17-0 when they met.  They did it by holding Nicholls to 55 yards rushing, and forced 3 turnovers.

Buckle up for some turnovers in this game.  UND is -7 in turnover margin on the year, good for 13th of 14 Big Sky teams.  Nicholls is -5 on the year, 9th in the Southland.

Nicholls was 4-1 at home this year.  Their one loss at home came on homecoming in overtime to 5-7 Abiline Christian.

Overall, on paper they seem like two pretty evenly matched teams.  According to Massey, they are #30.  They have a very impressive win over Central Arkansas who is seeded in the playoff field.  

They seem alot like us, sort of all over the place.

I expect an entertaining game.

Do they have southern speed?

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1 hour ago, bincitysioux said:

 

I would say UND needs to have faith in our secondary, stack the box, and make the QB beat them with his arm.

 

Totally agree.  Hope Schmidt dials up a game plan like he did against MSU.  Still not sure how we pulled that off with the depleted DL we had for that game.  Holm should shut his guy down.  Make them beat us with the pass, they will eventually make a mistake and throw a pick.  

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Plan to stop a 60/40 run team. 

Plan to hammer at a southern team that's never seen a 230 pound tailback who can run. 

And can I say ... plan to get out of Grand Forks before the coming weekend weather

Oh, and plan for 80 degrees, humidity, and a chance of thunderstorms

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So Wanzek is probably a big question mark after being in a sling Saturday, but we can hope, right?

How about everyone else?

- Mckinney doing ok?

- Thought I hear Gee was banged up, so hopefully JJ and Gordon are good to go to get some extra reps, but I want to see them keep feeding Skokna.

What other injury news is there?

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5 hours ago, The Sicatoka said:

Plan to stop a 60/40 run team. 

Plan to hammer at a southern team that's never seen a 230 pound tailback who can run. 

And can I say ... plan to get out of Grand Forks before the coming weekend weather

Oh, and plan for 80 degrees, humidity, and a chance of thunderstorms

Nice forecast, Kett doesn’t do well in the cold.  He is a California boy 

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29 minutes ago, sioux24/7 said:

Real “championship experience”

What a joke. I don't care who you are, or who you are playing, this is pathetic. If your renovations aren't complete until 2020, then don't host a playoff game until 2020. The team doesn't need cushy or comfort, but this is just stupid.

Whatever ... beat their A$$

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45 minutes ago, sioux24/7 said:

Real “championship experience”

Part of the hosting requirements are having adequate facilities. I'm not exactly sure how in the hell this qualifies? I guess they allowed it last year for the playoffs and it has been that way for going on for two seasons now but still....yikes.

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2 minutes ago, jdub27 said:

Part of the hosting requirements are having adequate facilities. I'm not exactly sure how in the hell this qualifies?

Private outhouses with the new Montgomery Wards catalog are included, that's how! 

The fans in the stands just get a tree out back, and a handful of grass. 

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1 hour ago, sioux24/7 said:

Real “championship experience”

Wonder why everyone thinks that the main driver of the NC$$ is money ?  

The only way Nicholls State should have been allowed to host a game is if they give the visiting team the home teams locker room.  Let Nicholls State use the tents for their locker room.  Embarrassing for Nicholls State and even more so for the money hungry NC$$. 

 

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Many people have said the host decision is based 100% on the highest bid, me included.  This appears to be incorrect, which makes the decision for Nichols to hose look even worse.  See criteria no. 3. (from the ncaa host operation manual https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/football/d1/2019-20D1MFB_PrelimRndHostOpsManual.pdf)

CRITERIA – PRELIMINARY ROUND SITE SELECTION Regarding first-round, second-round, quarterfinal and semifinal sites, in addition to the criteria listed in Bylaw 31.1.3.2.1, the NCAA Division I Football Championship Committee shall consider the following additional criteria when selecting playoff sites:

1. Prospective host institutions must submit the following minimum financial guarantees, which shall be 75 percent of the estimated net receipts as submitted on the proposed budget: First round—$30,000 Second round—$40,000 Quarterfinals—$50,000 Semifinals—$60,000

2. If the minimum financial guarantees are met, the committee will award the playoff sites to the top eight seeded teams.

3. When determining host institutions for playoff games when both teams are unseeded, criteria shall apply as follows: (1) quality of facility, (2) revenue potential plus estimated net receipts, (3) attendance history and potential, (4) team’s performance (e.g., conference place finish, head-to-head results and number of Division I opponents), and (5) student-athlete well-being (e.g., travel, missed class time).

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