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UND92,96

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Gas should go down, I heard on the radio, oil is at an six year low today

 

Stored supplies of crude oil in the U.S. are at the highest level in about 80 years, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and production continues to grow. Demand is typically restrained at this time of year as refiners process less crude while performing seasonal maintenance.

 

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Trying to stay factual (and not political):

 

Why is the price of oil going down? Because the Saudis opened the spigot. Why? Because they know Iran needs oil at about $100/bbl to pay their bills. And if Iran has no money Iran doesn't have money to spend on building a nuclear weapon. That's good in the minds of the Saudis. 

 

But wait, there's more: The Russians have been helping Iran with the technology for the Iranian nuclear program. Oil under $50/bbl hurts the Russians because the eastern Russian shale oil fields aren't viable with prices under about $70/bbl. Thus the Saudis get a double-bonus out of opening the spigot, flooding the market, and causing the price to fall: hurt Iran, hurt Iran's collaborator Russia.

 

But wait, there's even more! The Saudis view handling Iran (keeping nukes out of Tehran's hands) as an American problem. The Americans haven't been doing that. Thus, although the Saudis know low oil prices hurt the US shale plays, and probably doesn't make American lawmakers that depend on that tax revenue happy, they can live with it because the Saudis really aren't happy with having to deal with what they consider America's problem to deal with (Iran's nuclear ambitions), themselves. 

 

You see gas floating between $1.80 and $2.40 a gallon. I see Saudi Arabia afraid of a nuclear Iran and using their lone weapon of (economic) warfare to head it off.  

 

 

(Closing: Note I made no mention of particular politicians or parties, or political views.) 

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  • 9 months later...

There is a gasoline pipeline from MSP through Fargo to Minot, making prices cheaper along that corridor.  There is also a smaller pipeline from Mandan through Jamestown to Fargo.  Grand Forks needs trucks to supply it overland.

The Mandan refinery has units that can break down heavy carbons, so yes it produces gasoline and jet fuel, unlike Dickinson.

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6 minutes ago, dmksioux said:

I drove through Bagley yesterday and it was $1.65.

Around Bagley Clearbrook, there is a spur gasoline pipeline, so prices are usually lower.  In E Tenn, prices have been $1.62, and no refineries around, but there is a gasoline pipeline from the Gulf.

Access to pipelines make all the difference, as middlemen transportation takes their cuts.

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56 minutes ago, darell1976 said:

So how low will it go before it's well over 2 bucks? I say after the new year it will increase. Oil companies will need government help as they aren't getting the billions of dollars in profits like they get every year.

The pure refinery companies like Tesoro, Valero, and Phillip 66 are making more profits than ever, as they benefit from low oil prices and higher demand.  Bakken oil companies are doing really bad, losing billions this year unless they hedged, as reflected by their stock prices.  Saudia Arabia wants to drive the American shale companies bankrupt, and they are well on their way.  The shale companies won't get any help from Washington.

Russia won't take it much longer, as oil prices are the economy for them.

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Yesterday:

Grand Forks 1.99

Mayville 1.89

Cooperstown 1.84

 

No pipelines to Mayville or Cooperstown, although both are closer to the Fargo to Minot route. Not sure where the places to load trucks are along that route. 

GF has been known to keep prices higher - that dates back to the 70s at least. Controlled mostly by one GF station owner. In the early 70s, however, a gas price war kept prices at 0.19 for an entire school year in GF.

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