siouxweet Posted February 14, 2012 Posted February 14, 2012 The loss on Sat. really hurt the pairwise ranking. With a tie UND would be 13th, with a win they would have moved up to 8th. that just goes to show how fluid this thing is. 4-2 down the stretch and a trip to the x should get us in. Quote
NorthDakotaHockey Posted February 14, 2012 Posted February 14, 2012 The loss on Sat. really hurt the pairwise ranking. With a tie UND would be 13th, with a win they would have moved up to 8th. You are featured on the 10th Anniversary poster commemorating the opening of The Ralph. There, forever, is RochSioux. They are going to hang one in all of the suites. Not sure if they will go on sale to the public. Congratulations!! See you around the arenas. Quote
Dolphinswin Posted February 14, 2012 Posted February 14, 2012 4-2, and a trip to the xcel would get us in? Quote
rochsioux Posted February 14, 2012 Posted February 14, 2012 You are featured on the 10th Anniversary poster commemorating the opening of The Ralph. There, forever, is RochSioux. They are going to hang one in all of the suites. Not sure if they will go on sale to the public. Congratulations!! See you around the arenas. Now that is scary ! See you around. Quote
siouxu31 Posted February 14, 2012 Posted February 14, 2012 4-2, and a trip to the xcel would get us in? Assuming every team has 3 weeks left in their season before conference tournaments begin, that means there are still almost 200 regular season games left. There are way too many scenarios that can play out in those 200 games when it comes to the pairwise. It is impossible to know where UND is going to end up at the end of the year because there are so many comparisons that are out of their control. Read up on the pairwise and you will come to understand that its meant to be a tool that is used once all of the games have been played out. Quote
siouxweet Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 that just goes to show how fluid this thing is. 4-2 down the stretch and a trip to the x should get us in. that's not what I meant to say. what I meant to say is 5-1 down the stretch and a trip to the x should get us in. Quote
krangodance Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 More like 11 to be safe. There are 5 or 6 autobids, I can't remember exactly right off hand. EDIT: It's 6. I think your source is outdated. When the CHA existed there were six auto-bids but now there are only five. They are the winners of each conference tournament: WCHA, CCHA, HEA, ECAC and AHA Quote
krangodance Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 I think your source is outdated. When the CHA existed there were six auto-bids but now there are only five. They are the winners of each conference tournament: WCHA, CCHA, HEA, ECAC and AHA Once the NCHC and B10 start up then there will probably be six auto-bids since the CCHA will go away. Quote
Goon Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 Once the NCHC and B10 start up then there will probably be six auto-bids since the CCHA will go away. I wouldn't count on it. You're going to have AHA, H.E., WCHA, B1G and NCHC. Quote
SJHovey Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 I wouldn't count on it. You're going to have AHA, H.E., WCHA, B1G and NCHC. So what happened to Cornell, Yale, etc... Quote
iluvdebbies Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 Thats right! You're going to have AHA, H.E., WCHA, B1G,NCHC and ECAC. Quote
Goon Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 (edited) So what happened to Cornell, Yale, etc... My bad, I thought we were minus one league with the implosion of the CCHA, but I also miss counted. Edited February 15, 2012 by Goon Quote
Fighting Sioux 23 Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 Here is how it breaks down... First, and foremost, If you are in the top 11, you are in the tournament. There are 5 auto-bids currently, and the AHA champion will almost assuradely finish outside the top 16. As a result, you need to be in the top 15 to have a chance. The CCHA has been extremely strong this year, and it is likely that whoever wins the CCHA Tournament will be bolstered in the PWR, and will finish in the top 15. So, top 15 is still good. Hockey East is similar to the CCHA, so it is likely that whoever wins the Hockey East tournament will be high enough in the PWR that it won't kick anyone out. So, top 15 is still good. The ECAC is the biggest risk. Unless Union (currently) wins the ECAC Tournament, it is likely that the auto-bid from the ECAC does not finish in the top 15. So, top 14 is still good. 15 may still be good depending on if Union were to drop out of the top 15, or if a team like Cornell wins and jumps into the top 15. The WCHA is tricky. If Minnesota, Duluth, Denver, or North Dakota win the tourney, it is likely that those squads will be in the top 14 or 15 of the PWR. If another squad wins the tourney, it could take away a spot. However, CC or UNO could move up enough to finish in the top 14 or 15 if they were the squad to win the tourney. Basically, it is likely that the WCHA champ finishes in the top 14 or 15. What does all this mean? If you finish 16th, you're not making the tournament, barring the AHA champion moving up into the top 16. Less than 1% chance. If you finish 15th, you need to be extremely lucky and have all favorites win the tourney. Perhaps 5-10% chance. If you finish 14th, you are probably better than 50/50 to make it, but need to have limited upsets. If you finish 13th, you can withstand some upsets, and are probably close to 90%+ at making the tourney If you finish 12th, you are almost assuredly in the tournament, barring major upsets in every conference tourney If you finish 11th or higher, congratulations, you will be playing in the NCAA Tournament. 1 Quote
GFG Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 Thought you guys might find this site interesting. http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournpartprob.html Quote
GoalieMask Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 Thought you guys might find this site interesting. http://www.playoffst...rnpartprob.html That is a neat site. Thanks for sharing. Hmmm...42% chance. Not great, but not impossible at this point. I love some of the other teams with <1% chance. Classic, Dumb and Dumber: "So you're saying there's a chance!" Quote
jodcon Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 Thought you guys might find this site interesting. http://www.playoffst...rnpartprob.html Interesting that Minnesota sits at 46% despite leading the WCHA, we're not the only ones with work left to do. Quote
jimdahl Posted February 15, 2012 Author Posted February 15, 2012 Thought you guys might find this site interesting. http://www.playoffst...rnpartprob.html Note that their technique is not the PWR (which by design perfectly mimics the NCAA selection criteria, and has correctly predicted the exact tournament field for at least a decade), but is instead their own, unpublished ranking scheme: Everybody else has their own National Rankings. Now PlayoffStatus.com does as well. Teams are ranked by PlayoffStatus.com's Meaningful Win Percentage (MWP) calculations, which are based upon a team's win percentage modified by strength of schedule and home/away play. e.g. PWR says Denver is currently #7, whereas their MWP says #13. They say Notre Dame is #9, PWR says #18. Nothing wrong with someone making their own rankings (Ken Butler's is still widely revered), but predictions of whether a team will finish top 14 in MWP aren't necessarily good predictions of whether a team will make the tournament. Quote
buckysieve Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 Interesting that Minnesota sits at 46% despite leading the WCHA, we're not the only ones with work left to do. Yeah I noticed that too, very strange. Conference champs no longer get an automatic bid correct? I know they changed the rule where they did get an automatic bid after 1994 when CC won the league but missed out on the NCAA's. But they have sinced changed that I believe. Quote
sagard Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 Interesting that Minnesota sits at 46% despite leading the WCHA, we're not the only ones with work left to do. Much like some of the complaints of the Sioux, the Gophers have played with NO discipline all season and are basically a bubble team due to it. Repeated idiocy from players and coaching led directly to losses vs. Northeastern and Saturday vs. DU. Convert either of those to wins or ties and the Gophers are comfortably in the tourney. Now they have to sweat out the next month and watch scoreboards. If I were betting, I'd put both the Sioux and the Gophers in the tourney. Too much talent on both teams to fail. Quote
jodcon Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 Much like some of the complaints of the Sioux, the Gophers have played with NO discipline all season and are basically a bubble team due to it. Repeated idiocy from players and coaching led directly to losses vs. Northeastern and Saturday vs. DU. Convert either of those to wins or ties and the Gophers are comfortably in the tourney. Now they have to sweat out the next month and watch scoreboards. If I were betting, I'd put both the Sioux and the Gophers in the tourney. Too much talent on both teams to fail. Much like our Denver trip, Gophers trip to UNO looms large next week. Gophers end up at home with Wisconsin, looks like a mismatch on paper but Bucky hates the Gophers and damaging their playoff chances would heal a lot of the pain of the Badgers crappy season, could be an intense series. Quote
Siouxman Posted February 15, 2012 Posted February 15, 2012 Gophers end up at home with Wisconsin, looks like a mismatch on paper but Bucky hates the Gophers and damaging their playoff chances would heal a lot of the pain of the Badgers crappy season, could be an intense series. That could be a real chippy series. Quote
Blackheart Posted February 16, 2012 Posted February 16, 2012 That could be a real chippy series. Why, is Rau playing? Quote
farce poobah Posted February 16, 2012 Posted February 16, 2012 Why, is Rau playing? Because tArrogantOnes are always chippy, and tBucky's are playing to extend their scholarships. Quote
Blackheart Posted February 16, 2012 Posted February 16, 2012 Because tArrogantOnes are always chippy, and tBucky's are playing to extend their scholarships. Goldy better crank it up or they could be in the toilet after this weekend...at least as far as the pair wise is concerned... Quote
KoolGuy2K Posted February 16, 2012 Posted February 16, 2012 Do the games at the X count towards the pairwise? Quote
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