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PWR predictions


jimdahl

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Moving to a 2-3 seed would keep us out of the St. Paul regional, unless UMTC moves up to a 1 seed. That could happen if Ferris or UMLowell lose.

Of course UMTC would have to keep winning. They seem ripe for a Friday loss at the F5, followed by the typical tDon speech, saying that the loss doesn't matter, we just want to get into the tourney.

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Hakstol needs to put more emphasis on the Frozen Four and not the Final Five. The Don has two championships.

The Sioux are already in "playoff mode," and by the time the "real playoffs" come around....the Sioux ain't got nothing left in the tank.

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Hakstol needs to put more emphasis on the Frozen Four and not the Final Five. The Don has two championships.

The Sioux are already in "playoff mode," and by the time the "real playoffs" come around....the Sioux ain't got nothing left in the tank.

You do realize they need to win these games to get into the tournament right? If they don't win they miss the tournament. If they miss the tournament they can't make it to the Frozen Four.

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Unreal!

Incredible that this beaten down bunch could be looking at a 2 seed. If I had to guess, I would think that a loss to CC would probably be the worst thing that could happen, with wins over UM and Duluth being the best. Given our depth issues though I don't know if this team could win 3 in 3 days. Almost superhuman if the did.

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Incredible that this beaten down bunch could be looking at a 2 seed. If I had to guess, I would think that a loss to CC would probably be the worst thing that could happen, with wins over UM and Duluth being the best. Given our depth issues though I don't know if this team could win 3 in 3 days. Almost superhuman if the did.

Umm we won't be playing CC as Tech won.

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Umm we won't be playing CC as Tech won.

Yup, I just check and saw the OT final. A CC loss would have been especially bad since we have them 2-0 for common opponents.

Looks like if Wisconsin wins we play them and if they lose we get St. Cloud.

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"Looks like if Wisconsin wins we play them and if they lose we get St. Cloud."

Correct so this is what I suspect:

North Dakota vs Wisconsin would be a 3 vs. 6 matchup, likely meaning a 2pm face off on Thursday and Friday as the winner gets Duluth.

North Dakota vs St. Cloud St would be a 4 vs. 5 matchup, likely meaning a 7pm faceoff on Thursday and Friday as the winner gets Goldie.

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"Looks like if Wisconsin wins we play them and if they lose we get St. Cloud."

Correct so this is what I suspect:

North Dakota vs Wisconsin would be a 3 vs. 6 matchup, likely meaning a 2pm face off on Thursday and Friday as the winner gets Duluth.

North Dakota vs St. Cloud St would be a 4 vs. 5 matchup, likely meaning a 7pm faceoff on Thursday and Friday as the winner gets Goldie.

Correct me if I am wrong, but if Wisconsin wins Denver is out so we are a 3 seed, meaning we do not play thursday and get to play Minnesota-Duluth on Friday. Winner of Wisconsin and St Cloud would get UM, Has the format of the tournament changed??

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Correct me if I am wrong, but if Wisconsin wins Denver is out so we are a 3 seed, meaning we do not play thursday and get to play Minnesota-Duluth on Friday. Winner of Wisconsin and St Cloud would get UM, Has the format of the tournament changed??

Your forgetting about Michigan Tech. The format you described was the format used when the WCHA had 10 teams and 5 advanced to St. Paul. Since they expanded to 12 teams last year, 6 teams advance to the X. Thus, the 3 seed will always play on Thursday.

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Your forgetting about Michigan Tech. The format you described was the format used when the WCHA had 10 teams and 5 advanced to St. Paul. Since they expanded to 12 teams last year, 6 teams advance to the X. Thus, the 3 seed will always play on Thursday.

rigggggght, need to rename the tournament.

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Was that the original intent of the final five name or did they just change the meaning to match the new format?

Originally the name was because it was the final five teams, although it was also the final five games. The name was very popular and good branding, so when they changed the format they wanted to keep the name. They now call it the Final Five because of the final five games in WCHA play for the year.
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I just noticed something and am wondering if someone can confirm this.

I was looking at UND's comparison with Miami, specifically the common opponents.


North Dakota	Miami

0.6250	   COP		 0.7500

3-1-0 0.7500 Bemidji  0.5000 1-1-0

1-1-0 0.5000 Denver 1.0000 1-0-0

Now, In looking at this, the Sioux are 4-2 vs COP and Miami is 2-1. They both equal out to a .6667 win %. But if you look, they take the win % against each team and figure out the average.

Why on earth do they do it that way? That gives those 1 game series'/holiday tournaments way too much value, IMO.

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I just noticed something and am wondering if someone can confirm this.

I was looking at UND's comparison with Miami, specifically the common opponents.


North Dakota Miami
0.6250 COP 0.7500
3-1-0 0.7500 Bemidji 0.5000 1-1-0
1-1-0 0.5000 Denver 1.0000 1-0-0
[/CODE]

Now, In looking at this, the Sioux are 4-2 vs COP and Miami is 2-1. They both equal out to a .6667 win %. But if you look, they take the win % against each team and figure out the average.

Why on earth do they do it that way? That gives those 1 game series'/holiday tournaments way too much value, IMO.

That's right, it's new this year. The problem they were trying to fix was the following:

UND

--

AA 4-0

BC 0-1

BU

--

AA 1-0

BC 1-1

Under the old cumulative record scheme, UND would take the point (4-1-0/.8 to 2-1-0/.667). Under the new average win% scheme, BU would take the point (.5 to .75). They were trying to stop teams from being rewarded for having a large number of games against a weaker team.

Like all yearly patches to the PWR, it was clearly meant to right some specific perceived wrong from the last year or two, but in my quick comparison runs it makes very little difference overall.

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K, I am confussed. How can we be tied for tenth and behind Maine, when we have the head to head over them?

We're actually tied for 11th, Maine has sole possession of 10th.

As to who wins PWR ties, no one is positive (and indeed it could always change under our feet) but the general consensus for some time has been that ties seem to be resolved by RPI instead of H2H (though some still claim that RPI is only used for 3-way ties and that 2-way ties might be resolved via H2H).

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