GFG Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 UND's road to the NCAA tournament is getting steeper The full article also includes a look at this week's impacts of the Wisconsin series, a look at this week's "on the cliff" team -- Mass.-Lowell, and the most dynamic (from a PWR perspective) series of the week -- Northern Michigan vs. Miami. Just curious as a Minnesota fan, what does your formula say for us? Any input would be greatly appreciated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Damn it's worse than I thought, can only afford 2 more losses with road series at Duluth and Denver plus 3 home series. It might come down to having to win the WCHA Tournament after all. Don't forget that I'm not doing the conference tournaments, which will affect the final PWR. A full run gets the autobid anyway, so ignore that scenario. However, it is possible in the tournament to get 3-4 wins and only one loss, though likely only 1-2 of those wins against TUCs. The target probably isn't really #13 like I keep saying, but instead something like #17, to leave enough room to climb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jodcon Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Don't forget that I'm not doing the conference tournaments, which will affect the final PWR. A full run gets the autobid anyway, so ignore that scenario. However, it is possible in the tournament to get 3-4 wins and only one loss, though likely only 1-2 of those wins against TUCs. The target probably isn't really #13 like I keep saying, but instead something like #17, to leave enough room to climb. Going to be tough duty getting those wins in the tournament unless we can move up to around 4th before it starts, first round we would have to sweep the lower seed, then we would get someone like CC or UNO, then Minn. or Duluth, then the other one (if the brackets hold). That's a tough road. We've been running through all these scenarios for the last couple weeks and the thing that is becoming clearer is every game has to be played like an elimination game from here on out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoalieMask Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Duluth has the inside track on the MacNaughton Cup as their schedule looks favorable. Honestly, after that it's a crap shoot with the next five in the standings. I still think if CC gets healthy they could make a good run. Final Five will be tough because it's likely that everyone outside of Duluth will need to have a good tournament to stay alive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dagies Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Or just go on a nine-game win streak after March 8. Maybe we'll be healthy by then! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goon Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 (edited) I still think that UND has a good chance to make the tourney, if they rack up some wins. Just a hunch but the CCHA isn't going to get 7 teams in the tourney because they are going to beat the hell out of each other. Can you imagine the Hakstol haters, if UND doesn't make the Final Five or the NCAA tourney? Yikes. Edited January 24, 2012 by Goon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GFG Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I still think that UND has a good chance to make the tourney, if they rack up some wins. Just a hunch but the CCHA isn't going to get 7 teams in the tourney because they are going to beat the hell out of each other. Can you imagine the Hakstol haters, if UND doesn't make the Final Five or the NCAA tourney? Yikes. Hakstol should have about the highest job security of any college hockey coach in the nation, right up there with Red Berenson and Jerry York. Just my opinion, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GFG Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Duluth has the inside track on the MacNaughton Cup as their schedule looks favorable. Honestly, after that it's a crap shoot with the next five in the standings. I still think if CC gets healthy they could make a good run. Final Five will be tough because it's likely that everyone outside of Duluth will need to have a good tournament to stay alive. Totally agree with this. Duluth is in the hot seat to win the MacNaughton Cup, and I assume that they probably will win it. CC didn't look to strong in Minneapolis this past weekend. They were definitely outplayed both nights but they got some lucky bounces their way Friday and goaltending kept them in it. Which I suppose is what you need in one and done playoffs. Luck and goaltending. Both CC and Denver are so up and down its hard to know what team you're going up against. Since mid November Minnesota has been the same way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackheart Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Hakstol should have about the highest job security of any college hockey coach in the nation, right up there with Red Berenson and Jerry York. Just my opinion, though. . How about Troy Jutting? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GFG Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 . How about Troy Jutting? No comment. Although I must admit overall he normally does a decent job with what resources he has. It would be hard for a school like that to get a more qualified coach Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Just curious as a Minnesota fan, what does your formula say for us? Any input would be greatly appreciated Added in a comment here. Minnesota's in pretty good shape. Winning just over 50% would still make them a likely tournament selection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GFG Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Added in a comment here. Minnesota's in pretty good shape. Winning just over 50% would still make them a likely tournament selection. Thank you Jim Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNState0fHockey Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Added in a comment here. Minnesota's in pretty good shape. Winning just over 50% would still make them a likely tournament selection. Thanks Jim, and GREAT work with this! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 UND's PWR not likely to move much in bye week Having lost none last weekend, we can still afford about two more losses... I also always find it fun to see how much our ranking can move on weeks we don't play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dolphinswin Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 we can only afford 2 losses and we have UMD next week?!? yikes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snake Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 we can only afford 2 losses and we have UMD next week?!? yikes Normally I'd be less concerned knowing Tech scored 9 unanswered goals on UMD to close the weekend...but that's a double-edged sword considering we have to host MTU the following weekend! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stoneySIOUX Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 we can only afford 2 losses and we have UMD next week?!? yikes Duluth is very overrated IMO.... look who they've played.... I did the numbers and the combined record of their opponents is 114-144-26.... sure you factor in Huntsville, but even after that, 112-120-25.... not impressive. They haven't been tested since playing the gophers. We can give them a big run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jodcon Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Duluth is very overrated IMO.... look who they've played.... I did the numbers and the combined record of their opponents is 114-144-26.... sure you factor in Huntsville, but even after that, 112-120-25.... not impressive. They haven't been tested since playing the gophers. We can give them a big run We need no worse than a split at Duluth, with a road series at Denver still on the horizon (where we ALWAYS are on the short end of the penalty calls), anything less than 2 points at Duluth could be a killer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrunkHockeyGuy Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Hmm that's funny. The Pairwise would say otherwise on our rating. Sweep of Western in their barn, 3 at providence, 3 at DU, split with Notre Dame. Good stuff. If I squint real hard I may be able to see UND in the pairwise rankings somewhere "Mr Stoney-no name". I'll give you a play by play of the NCAA's while you and your no names enjoy thr golf course. Do me a favor, warm up the Tee box for me, I'll be out April 8th Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Let'sGoHawks! Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Hmm that's funny. The Pairwise would say otherwise on our rating. Sweep of Western in their barn, 3 at providence, 3 at DU, split with Notre Dame. Good stuff. If I squint real hard I may be able to see UND in the pairwise rankings somewhere "Mr Stoney-no name". I'll give you a play by play of the NCAA's while you and your no names enjoy thr golf course. Do me a favor, warm up the Tee box for me, I'll be out April 8th Even someone named "drunk hockey guy" knows that his favorite squad is struggling mightily right now. The only question: is it a temporary slump, or is it indicative of how the rest of the season will go? Time will tell. Now, about your ribbing at UND, I'm not sure a Duluth fan can do that. Sure, you won the title last year, but Butler almost won the NCAA BB title 2 years in a row. Is Butler one of the best programs of all time? No, a program that has had a couple good years. Again: your squad is struggling right now, and I like UND's chances in just under 2 weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrunkHockeyGuy Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 damn you nailed everything but the the "7" there. Must be losing your touch "letsGoNoName" just a bump in the road. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeftyZL Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Hmm that's funny. The Pairwise would say otherwise on our rating. Sweep of Western in their barn, 3 at providence, 3 at DU, split with Notre Dame. Good stuff. If I squint real hard I may be able to see UND in the pairwise rankings somewhere "Mr Stoney-no name". I'll give you a play by play of the NCAA's while you and your no names enjoy thr golf course. Do me a favor, warm up the Tee box for me, I'll be out April 8th Providence? Really? You are trying to prove your point about UMD and you cite Providence? And Denver's the same team that got beat 7-3 by Michigan Tech. Your best point was the split with Notre Dame. IMO, the truth of the matter is is that UMD is a very good hockey team. No one's denying that. In fact, best team I've seen so far. But in reality, the 2 best teams you've played were way back in October at home and went 1-3. I think this past weekend is a blip for UMD, but it shows there's a lot more parody in college hockey this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackheart Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Hmm that's funny. The Pairwise would say otherwise on our rating. Sweep of Western in their barn, 3 at providence, 3 at DU, split with Notre Dame. Good stuff. If I squint real hard I may be able to see UND in the pairwise rankings somewhere "Mr Stoney-no name". I'll give you a play by play of the NCAA's while you and your no names enjoy thr golf course. Do me a favor, warm up the Tee box for me, I'll be out April 8th Oh, now I remember you...thanks for the input... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ringneck28 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 DHG, I would worry about the end of the regular season before you start talking about post season. Look at who you have yet, I see some rough road games and you have home series against 2 teams in the polls. There are 10 games left and you better take care of Alaska this weekend before you worry about the post season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Let'sGoHawks! Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 damn you nailed everything but the the "7" there. Must be losing your touch "letsGoNoName" just a bump in the road. That "no name" thing is pretty clever. How'd you come up with that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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