Conference Realignments - Take 2

[Yote 53]

I like this comment at the bottom of the DU article.

"funny how everyone in this conference seems to think they are too good for this conference."

Yet nobody in this conference is getting offers from "better" conferences.

There will be a ton of political pressure applied to the XDSU's to decouple from the UXD's.  I just don't see it happening.  I honestly don't get the same vibes from Jacks fans that Bison fans have.  They seem very content with their spot in the FCS and there isn't much talk of FBS at all.  Bison fans think FCS is beneath them.

The irony is that NDSU's program is fading.  SDSU is on top now, but who knows if that can be sustained now that Stig is gone.  Both USD and UND aren't sitting idly by either, both improving and adding resources, not just content to sit and watch the SU's success.

I don't know what will happen but do know the MWC has a lot of different options out west before they get to NDSU/SDSU.  Location of the Dakotas is an issue.

[AJS]

I want to discuss the Dakota 4 in relation to moving to a G5 league. This would not be Football only, but instead an all-sports invite. 

• NDSU: Need to go with the most to gain. They've maxed out at the FCS level. Interest over the past few years is on a downward trajectory. They need a change or there's no reason to believe things will turn around (fan excitement standpoint). 
• SDSU: Based on their current standing, by far the most to lose. Highly successful but have room to grow. Moving from the Summit would be a huge blow to M/W Basketball. To me the move doesn't make sense. 
• UND: They don't have much to lose. Do have the highest athletic budget of the Dakota 4. Painful reminder of the mistake of not moving to D1 at the time of the XDSU's.
• USD:  Edited: I don't know enough to speculate. I would think the SL tournament would be a huge reason to not go for them as well.

Given each schools location, I do feel sticking together and being united is key. Could the other three kind of in a way block NDSU from going? They would need a travel partner for MW, if the other three schools said no, they'd be essentially stuck, right? 

[The Sicatoka]

3 minutes ago, Yote 53 said:

There will be a ton of political pressure applied to the XDSU's to decouple ...

From the football first crowd, undoubtedly. 

Those concerned foremost with fiscal matters may have a significantly different view. 

[Yote 53]

10 minutes ago, The Sicatoka said:

From the football first crowd, undoubtedly. 

Those concerned foremost with fiscal matters may have a significantly different view. 

Not sure how you read that quote, my intent was to say that decoupling the Dakota schools will be extremely difficult.  There will be a ton of political pressure resisting decoupling.  Years ago USD had that BSC invite in hand and it was political pressure in-state that kept that from happening.  USD leaving the Summit at that time would have severely hurt the conference and SDSU in the process.  You think SDSU will now be allowed to do the same to USD?  No, they won't.  

I am going to guess it would play out very similarly politically in North Dakota.

The Dakota 4 sticking together is the key.  We either continue to strengthen the Summit from within or we ally with the Montana and Idaho schools.

[The Sicatoka]

9 minutes ago, Yote 53 said:

Not sure how you read that quote, my intent was to say that decoupling the Dakota schools will be extremely difficult. 

I didn't read the last six words in "There will be a ton of political pressure applied to the XDSU's to decouple from the UXD's.  I just don't see it happening." closely enough.   

The MWC surely observed UND's time in the BSC. Look at the BSC footprint and where UND is. Now look at MWC and the Dak4. Same thing only different. 

 

[Yote 53]

This is going back years and years, but the MWC is basically the old WAC.  The old WAC expanded outside of its traditional footprint to form the first superconference, it didn't work.  The footprint was too large and unwieldy.  The original WAC broke off and formed the MWC, back to the original footprint.  Lessons learned there.  I don't see the MWC venturing into the central time zone and the Great Plains.  

Just look at the map...

Map of NCAA D1 Schools

[SWSiouxMN]

You have to give it up to the Big 12 here, they have managed to play their cards right since TX and OK left and really find themselves in a spot where they can end the Pac 12 as a whole if they decide to do it.

What if they pull off Oregon?

 

[SWSiouxMN]

31 minutes ago, Yote 53 said:

This is going back years and years, but the MWC is basically the old WAC.  The old WAC expanded outside of its traditional footprint to form the first superconference, it didn't work.  The footprint was too large and unwieldy.  The original WAC broke off and formed the MWC, back to the original footprint.  Lessons learned there.  I don't see the MWC venturing into the central time zone and the Great Plains.  

Just look at the map...

Map of NCAA D1 Schools

and if they can just wait and get Wazzu and Oregon State... then why bother expanding east?

[nodak651]

25 minutes ago, SWSiouxMN said:

and if they can just wait and get Wazzu and Oregon State... then why bother expanding east?

I don't think they would add any Pac schools.  If there are only a couple left, they will all join Wazzu and Oregon State so they can use the Pac12 name and branding.  Do the conference bylaws address anything about the conference being disbanded if membership drops below a certain number?  Pretty sure if the entire MWC joins the PAC12 and if the MWC ceases to exist, they would retain NCAA basketball credits earned from both conferences.

[AJS]

Is that type of scenario that far-fetched? Pac-12 loses almost all of their members and are replaced by a large majority of the MW and SMU. Who backfills the MW? Would the Dakota 4, Montana schools be completely out of the realm of a possibility? If the MW needed to say backfill 8 spots? 

Is the biggest issue that there's really nowhere for Pac-12 schools to go. I've read the Big-12 wants to get to 14. Would they change that to 16 if they could grab 3 Pac-12 schools? Would the BIG reconsider expansion if they could get Oregon / Washington at a discount? 

 

[The Sicatoka]

The PAC is the injured animal about to go down because it's badly hobbled (USC, UCLA, now CU). 
The predators (B1G and BXII) are staying away to not get nicked before it happens. 
When it does they, they come in to finish it and take the best limbs. 

Meanwhile, a vulture circles overhead (MWC) ... 

[nodak651]

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/ncaa/finance/d1/2023D1Fin_RevenueDistributionPlan.pdf

[The Sicatoka]

6 minutes ago, AJS said:

Is that type of scenario that far-fetched? Pac-12 loses almost all of their members and are replaced by a large majority of the MW and SMU. Who backfills the MW? Would the Dakota 4, Montana schools be completely out of the realm of a possibility? If the MW needed to say backfill 8 spots? 

Is the biggest issue that there's really nowhere for Pac-12 schools to go. I've read the Big-12 wants to get to 14. Would they change that to 16 if they could grab 3 Pac-12 schools? Would the BIG reconsider expansion if they could get Oregon / Washington at a discount? 

Folks have too many moving parts:

- 4 to BXII
- 4 to B1G* (or maybe 2, with 2 to ACC)
- 2 join with MWC under some name 

One conference lives on; one name dies. That's it. That's all the motion. I say that because schools/conferences are looking for safe harbors in this economy, not high risk, only value propositions. 

OU/UT added value to SEC; no others could. USC/UCLA added value to the B1G; no others could. Why will WasSU and OrSU be without a chair when the PAC music stops? Least value, no value to B1G, SEC, ACC, or BXII, but value to MWC. 

SDSU, SMU, UConn all simmer to say about 2025.
 

*not full shares for say five years  

[zonadub]

WWSVS?

 

 

 

*What Would Sioux Volley Say?

RIP Sioux Volley, but we miss your insight

[Yote 53]

If Washington, Oregon, Stanford, etc. brought increased value to the Big 10 they would be in the conference already.  The numbers have been run and the BIG Commish has publicly said they are standing pat with USC/UCLA.  USC has publicly said it doesn't want another West Coast school in the BIG (Oregon).  The BIG will now wait until the ACC starts to crumble so they and the SEC can pick over that carcass for the best pieces, and ND has nowhere to park its other sports and joins the BIG.

There's a reason Oregon and Washington are in talks with the Big 12, because they have nowhere else to go.

[UND1983]

SDSU is severely overestimating their situation. Can teams even fly into Brookings?  

[nodak651]

25 minutes ago, UND1983 said:

SDSU is severely overestimating their situation. Can teams even fly into Brookings?  

SDSU isn't publicly pounding the table for a FBS move.  Why do you say they are overestimating their situation?  How do you know what they think of their situation?

[UND1983]

7 minutes ago, nodak651 said:

SDSU isn't publicly pounding the table for a FBS move.  Why do you say they are overestimating their situation?  How do you know what they think of their situation?

Sorry captain literal. It seems as some of their fans and some media think they are an option.  But I apologize for my statement on a message board.  

[SWSiouxMN]

1 hour ago, Yote 53 said:

If Washington, Oregon, Stanford, etc. brought increased value to the Big 10 they would be in the conference already.  The numbers have been run and the BIG Commish has publicly said they are standing pat with USC/UCLA.  USC has publicly said it doesn't want another West Coast school in the BIG (Oregon).  The BIG will now wait until the ACC starts to crumble so they and the SEC can pick over that carcass for the best pieces, and ND has nowhere to park its other sports and joins the BIG.

There's a reason Oregon and Washington are in talks with the Big 12, because they have nowhere else to go.

They should jump on it.  They really should. 

When the music stops, you better find a chair. 

[SiouxScore]

13 hours ago, The Sicatoka said:

@AJS ... This. I'm holding to it. 

4 to BXII (CU, UA, ASU, UU)
4 swallow pride, take a smaller share, and go B1G (UW/UO/Cali-Stan)
2 end up with MWC under some name

I think if the B1G wanted Oregon and Washington they would have already grabbed them. Thinking they are waiting and lurking for some of those ACC schools when they become available. North Carolina and Virginia are the top two but maybe Notre Dame reconsiders after a couple years of not being able to get a bye in the playoff, maybe Georgia Tech to get into Atlanta.

[Sioux>Bison]

5 hours ago, UND1983 said:

Sorry captain literal. It seems as some of their fans and some media think they are an option.  But I apologize for my statement on a message board.  

Not really. Nothing like NDSU. Mainly sports writers mention SDSU but they are no closer financially to the FBS than UND. Good bb and football programs help but they still need a lot more $$$$$!

[The Sicatoka]

The ACC grant of rights is a near unbeatable contract for media rights. It essentially locks them together to 2036.

Like I said, UW/UO are partial share value to the B1G or a full from the BXII.

[SIOUXFAN97]

17 hours ago, The Sicatoka said:

The ACC grant of rights is a near unbeatable contract for media rights. It essentially locks them together to 2036.

Like I said, UW/UO are partial share value to the B1G or a full from the BXII.

what would the vote numbers have to be to dissolve that contract?

unanimous, 51% or more?

well over half of the schools would with be scooped up by the SEC, big10, or big 12 

 

 

 

[SIOUXFAN97]

what does happen if a conf like mwc or acc is picked dry BUT one school?

take MWC ...if they lose everyone but wyoming?  does wyoming  get all the exit fees, ncca credits, the history ?  

same with ACC..let's say everyone votes to leave but Boston College has new suitors?  do they have all the above like wyoming?

[the green team]

Even if PAC 12 hemorrhages  a few teams, I don’t see those that remain to easily go elsewhere.  In fact, I believe that it will only strengthen the resolve of those remaining… why.  For lack of a better term, they are one of the few conferences in the bylaws(lack of a better term) locked into the CFP, that’s CFP money is only going to explode to the few conferences in the club.  That includes the PAC 12.  Whether there is 10 teams or 8, take the money.  
 

Even if the upcoming media rights deal is subpar they may make up the difference with escalating CFP monies.   That may be well and good. Forget Power 5, there is only a Power 2, and the remnants of the PAC 12 may just may have to split among a smaller number.  The MWC media rights payout really isn’t all that impressive