2024 Non-UND FCS Thread

[Johnny Five]

50 minutes ago, nd1sufan said:

It’s gonna come down to can Montana State stop the RB Thies. The USD QB is too soft to play in the cold. If he gets pressured at all and sacked he will fold like a tent.

Thies is a brick sh*thouse to bring down.  Super impressive.  

[FSSD]

3 hours ago, geaux_sioux said:

Home team won a tight one in each? Then you look at other games. NDSU wins that clearly.

How so, the next best wins goes to SDSU with them beating a #6.  NDSU is clinging to an ISU-R win.  ISU-R is a bad team.  SDSU looks slightly better to me because of the Incarnate Word win.  At worst a draw.

Non conference: 

SDSU:  8 - Incarnate Word, 29 - SE La, Augie, L to OSU

NDSU:  30 ETSU, 31 - Towson, 46 - Ten St., L to Buffs. 

Conference:

SDSU: 9,22,28,42 YSU, 56,110 - removed NDSU and USD games

NDSU: 9,11 ISU-R,22,28,56,110 - removed SDSU and USD games

And ISU-R is highly overrated: 

They played and beat N. Alabama, W. Ill, E Ill in nonconference and didn't play either of the South Dakota schools this year.  Conference wins:  SIU, MuSU, YSU, UNI, ISU-B and UND.  They don't even have a quality loss this year.  Outside of the top three team in MVFC.  The conference was way down this year.  And Both xDSU schools beat Missouri St.

[NDRA]

Who really cares where Moo U got seeded?  Seems to show jealousy to me.  Plenty of things to worry about with this program.

[geaux_sioux]

28 minutes ago, FSSD said:

How so, the next best wins goes to SDSU with them beating a #6.  NDSU is clinging to an ISU-R win.  ISU-R is a bad team.  SDSU looks slightly better to me because of the Incarnate Word win.  At worst a draw.

Non conference: 

SDSU:  8 - Incarnate Word, 29 - SE La, Augie, L to OSU

NDSU:  30 ETSU, 31 - Towson, 46 - Ten St., L to Buffs. 

Conference:

SDSU: 9,22,28,42 YSU, 56,110 - removed NDSU and USD games

NDSU: 9,11 ISU-R,22,28,56,110 - removed SDSU and USD games

And ISU-R is highly overrated: 

They played and beat N. Alabama, W. Ill, E Ill in nonconference and didn't play either of the South Dakota schools this year.  Conference wins:  SIU, MuSU, YSU, UNI, ISU-B and UND.  They don't even have a quality loss this year.  Outside of the top three team in MVFC.  The conference was way down this year.  And Both xDSU schools beat Missouri St.

NDSU had a tight game against a ranked FBS team and didn’t play a D2. 

[Bison06]

48 minutes ago, geaux_sioux said:

NDSU had a tight game against a ranked FBS team and didn’t play a D2. 

And beat 3 playoff teams. Not sure why this is even a discussion honestly.

Augie could become DII national champs and in the eyes of the committee, NDSU beating Tennessee state is a better win than SDSU beating Augie.

[FSSD]

2 hours ago, geaux_sioux said:

NDSU had a tight game against a ranked FBS team and didn’t play a D2. 

A quality loss?  OK.

[FSSD]

2 hours ago, Bison06 said:

And beat 3 playoff teams. Not sure why this is even a discussion honestly.

Augie could become DII national champs and in the eyes of the committee, NDSU beating Tennessee state is a better win than SDSU beating Augie.

SDSU - #4 USD, #6 Incarnate Word, non Playoff Team SE La. (MR 29/SR 32 - 50.50) NOTE:  SE La. 4 wins against Top70.  Two FBS games more than likely kept them out of the playoffs.

NDSU - #3 SDSU, #12 ISU-r, nonSeed Ten St (MR 46/SR 39 - 49.51)  NOTE:  Ten St 1 win against a Top 70 Team - No FBS games - and bakery full of cup cakes.  Ten St. in the playoffs pure politics.

Your 3 playoff team is pure BS.

Massey Ranking - MR

Saragin Rating - SR

[Bison06]

44 minutes ago, FSSD said:

SDSU - #4 USD, #6 Incarnate Word, non Playoff Team SE La. (MR 29/SR 32 - 50.50) NOTE:  SE La. 4 wins against Top70.  Two FBS games more than likely kept them out of the playoffs.

NDSU - #3 SDSU, #12 ISU-r, nonSeed Ten St (MR 46/SR 39 - 49.51)  NOTE:  Ten St 1 win against a Top 70 Team - No FBS games - and bakery full of cup cakes.  Ten St. in the playoffs pure politics.

Your 3 playoff team is pure BS.

Massey Ranking - MR

Saragin Rating - SR

It’s funny you keep having this discussion and yet we already know how the committee ranked these teams. The outcome is already decided and you want to re-litigate it, for what purpose? Clearly the committee, whose job it is to rank these teams discounted SDSU SoS. If anything, you arguing that SDSU had a better SoS than NDSU only further bolsters my point that the committee discounted SDSU for the DII game.

[JohnboyND7]

12 hours ago, geaux_sioux said:

Home team won a tight one in each? Then you look at other games. NDSU wins that clearly.

Yep. The teams all had an opportunity to separate themselves from the pack and failed to do so. The committee got left with a bag of crap to sort out. I think they probably got it right. 

I think each team is probably fine with the outcome. USD gets to go to Bozeman if they win. Thats a reward to not have to play either NDSU or SDSU again.

SDSU isn't afraid of going to Fargo at this point. NDSU gets to play at home, which sure beats going to Brookings that time of year.

[JohnboyND7]

4 hours ago, FSSD said:

A quality loss?  OK.

I do not know the extent that committee considers FBS losses, but I imagine losing a close one at Colorado probably helped more than hindered NDSU.

[gfhockey]

Stevie Mandel must reed this forum

it’s catching on

The committee is so wed to the loss column it has 9-2 Tulane seven spots above an 8-3 K-State team that beat Tulane on its home field -- which was the best team Tulane has faced.

(Though I still contend Tulane got jobbed by the refs.)

[homer]

3 hours ago, Bison06 said:

It’s funny you keep having this discussion and yet we already know how the committee ranked these teams. The outcome is already decided and you want to re-litigate it, for what purpose? Clearly the committee, whose job it is to rank these teams discounted SDSU SoS. If anything, you arguing that SDSU had a better SoS than NDSU only further bolsters my point that the committee discounted SDSU for the DII game.

It’s even funnier that you keep coming back here to justify the ranking.  
 

Reality is 2,3 and 4 could have been ranked in any order and a case could have been made.  You can’t fault UND fans for questioning Lason on the committee based on recent decisions.  I personally do think the AQ for a conference should count for something and is a good point I never thought of before.  

[JohnboyND7]

32 minutes ago, homer said:

It’s even funnier that you keep coming back here to justify the ranking.  
 

Reality is 2,3 and 4 could have been ranked in any order and a case could have been made.  You can’t fault UND fans for questioning Lason on the committee based on recent decisions.  I personally do think the AQ for a conference should count for something and is a good point I never thought of before.  

The AQ does count for something. It counts for an autobid. In most conferences, that's what determines getting into the playoffs.

[Bison06]

53 minutes ago, homer said:

It’s even funnier that you keep coming back here to justify the ranking.  
 

Reality is 2,3 and 4 could have been ranked in any order and a case could have been made.  You can’t fault UND fans for questioning Lason on the committee based on recent decisions.  I personally do think the AQ for a conference should count for something and is a good point I never thought of before.  

SDSU fans aren’t even questioning the rankings, yet UND fans are. 

The AQ is decided by the conference, the rankings have nothing to do with that. 
 

Also, if you’ve read my posts, I’ve said literally word for word what you just posted. 2,3,4 could have been in any order. Yet they chose ndsu 2, sdsu 3, usd 4. Do you think they just flipped a coin? No, they looked at SoS and clearly discounted DII wins. Which part of what I’ve said do you disagree with?

[homer]

2 minutes ago, Bison06 said:

SDSU fans aren’t even questioning the rankings, yet UND fans are. 

The AQ is decided by the conference, the rankings have nothing to do with that. 

Not one SDSU fan is questioning it?

[Bison06]

7 minutes ago, homer said:

Not one SDSU fan is questioning it?

None that I’ve spoken to and I know a lot of them.

[F'n Hawks]

1 hour ago, Bison06 said:

SDSU fans aren’t even questioning the rankings, yet UND fans are. 

The AQ is decided by the conference, the rankings have nothing to do with that. 
 

Also, if you’ve read my posts, I’ve said literally word for word what you just posted. 2,3,4 could have been in any order. Yet they chose ndsu 2, sdsu 3, usd 4. Do you think they just flipped a coin? No, they looked at SoS and clearly discounted DII wins. Which part of what I’ve said do you disagree with?

We suck so we have to complain about something 

[homer]

6 hours ago, Bison06 said:

None that I’ve spoken to and I know a lot of them.

Random people on a message board??

[The Sicatoka]

W against Augie and Northern by the SDs are what moved NDSU to 2 for me. 

[FSSD]

15 hours ago, Bison06 said:

It’s funny you keep having this discussion and yet we already know how the committee ranked these teams. The outcome is already decided and you want to re-litigate it, for what purpose? Clearly the committee, whose job it is to rank these teams discounted SDSU SoS. If anything, you arguing that SDSU had a better SoS than NDSU only further bolsters my point that the committee discounted SDSU for the DII game.

IMO, none of your arguments hold up to any scrunty.  In the purest form of competition many DII teams are significantly better than the bottom of the FCS.  Your argument that DII doesn't count is based on some random committee emphasis that changes from year to year.  Over the years it has been: quality losses, strong finishes, rewarding strength of schedule, they had an FBS win, apparently this year it is they played a DII school. 

These are all random rationalization by committee members to do what they want.  So given this point, I am going with Occam's razor.  NDSU as #2 and Ten St. as the 3rd team in from the BigSouth/OVC are because they had reps on the Committee.  More political wins by NDSU at the expense of conference team members.  If SDSU and NDSU meet in the semifinals, NDSU has gained a 7-point advantage before the game starts.  I think this is a big deal for the student athletes and programs involved - SDSU got worked.

One more point, MSU had the weakest schedule of the four and if you go with the "Recent" predictor they are the lowest rated of the 4 seeds and 9-point dog on a neutral field with SDSU.  And 11-point dog using the "Strong Recent" if they play SDSU.  The Big Sky doesn't want to see SDSU they want NDSU in the finals.  The Big Sky knows its best chance is USD at home and NDSU in Frisco.
Again using Sagarin Predictor:

                                                                        Schedule Rank    Predictor    Golden_Mean    Recent     Strong Recent
34  South Dakota State   AA =  78.20   10   2   57.05(135) |   79.27   30 |   76.49   35 |   79.39   34 |   83.24   25  MISSOURI VALLEY     (AA)
44  North Dakota State   AA =  75.64   10   2   56.00(140) |   75.44   48 |   75.70   42 |   75.71   46 |   78.41   38  MISSOURI VALLEY     (AA)
63  Montana State           AA =  71.88   12   0   48.89(173) |   71.43   66 |   73.36   56 |   70.22   63 |   72.51   58  BIG SKY             (AA)
68  South Dakota             AA =  70.61    9   2   54.03(146) |   70.76   68 |   69.63   71 |   70.80   61 |   73.86   53  MISSOURI VALLEY     (AA)
NOTE:  I have NDSU with a +4 home field advantage and SDSU with the typical +3

SDSU @ NDSU - (79.27 - 75.44 -> 3.83 with +4) makes the spread Even

NDSU @ SDSU - (79.27 - 75.44 -> 3.83 with +3) makes the spread NDSU +7 with rounding.

[FSSD]

12 hours ago, JohnboyND7 said:

Yep. The teams all had an opportunity to separate themselves from the pack and failed to do so. The committee got left with a bag of crap to sort out. I think they probably got it right. 

I think each team is probably fine with the outcome. USD gets to go to Bozeman if they win. Thats a reward to not have to play either NDSU or SDSU again.

SDSU isn't afraid of going to Fargo at this point. NDSU gets to play at home, which sure beats going to Brookings that time of year.

I don't think SDSU is too execited about going to Fargo.  See previous post - 7 point swing advantage NDSU.  I would say USD indifferent, MSU and NDSU are laughing all the way to the bank.

[petey23]

On 11/25/2024 at 2:58 PM, bison73 said:

We beat SDSU heads up. SDSU beat USD.

I think when you are looking at all 3 teams you could have went in any order at first glance. My initial thought would have been USD, NDSU, SDSU

USD played a d2 school and unfortunately had a game cancelled and SDSU also played a d2 school. At second glance I would have placed NDSU 2 and since the comparison is now just between the South Dakota Schools, SDSU won head to head so they are 3 and USD is 4.

[zonadub]

Maybe the committee was looking at possible attendance indoors in Fargo vs outdoors in Brookings in December.

[Siouxperfan7]

Nashville bidding for the FCS title game to be played at Vanderbilt’s soon to be newly renovated stadium. 
 

https://www.tennessean.com/story/sports/columnist/mike-organ/2024/12/03/nashville-fcs-national-championship-vanderbilt-2025-frisco-texas/76658801007/

[Big Green]

2 hours ago, Siouxperfan7 said:

Nashville bidding for the FCS title game to be played at Vanderbilt’s soon to be newly renovated stadium. 
 

https://www.tennessean.com/story/sports/columnist/mike-organ/2024/12/03/nashville-fcs-national-championship-vanderbilt-2025-frisco-texas/76658801007/

this would be great.  IMO Perfect Size Stadium and Nashville would be a great place to go for National Championship game.