2020 Dumpster Fire (Enter at your own risk)

[yzerman19]

1 minute ago, mikejm said:

I'll show my age here, but quarantines were "common" in my youth. In the 60s I saw, or was affected by public health lockdowns in response to scarlet fever, tuberculosis and polio. Families were closed in their homes until they were clear of infection. I wouldn't be against similar measures as we move forward in today's pandemic.

Were they imposed by police force or were people responsible and laid low if those in their home were sick?  

[yzerman19]

Who determined if someone was clear of infection?  Did someone have to get sick first or was everyone presumed sick until they had a test to prove otherwise?  This is the slope that I am worried about.  

The idea of having to prove that you are "healthy" in order to function in society is scary.

[SIOUXFAN97]

1 hour ago, MafiaMan said:

Just to be even more despicable, I waved at them and said, “hi.”

greta voice..."how dare you!"

[Redneksioux]

Just now, keikla said:

I thought that's exactly what was happening for anyone who tested positive.  The infected individual and anyone with high risk direct contact (the CDC classifies contact as low, med, or high risk) is quarantined completely.  Is that not the case in ND?

It is the case. But Law Enforcement is saying they don't have the resources to enforce. They are also claiming HIPAA laws prevent them from verifying/identifying/enforcing.

[Oxbow6]

5 minutes ago, keikla said:

I thought that's exactly what was happening for anyone who tested positive.  The infected individual and anyone with high risk direct contact (the CDC classifies contact as low, med, or high risk) is quarantined completely.  Is that not the case in ND?

I misread the post by mike.....you are correct. As is Redneck above.

[homer]

2 hours ago, dynato said:

General question: Do people believe that shutting down the national economy, severely limiting business and travel, banning events larger than 10 people, closing down schools, implementing nationwide social distancing and stay at home measures, had absolutely no impact on the ~30-40k  covid deaths we have experienced in the past month?

Or is the general belief that continuing these measures now outweigh the benefit that they provide? 

I was always under the understanding the same amount of people were going to sick, flattening the curve was only spreading that out.  Slowing the spread, not stopping it. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve.html

I think he question now is can we practice some of the social distancing in our daily lives.  Can we at work?  Can we at school (likely closed for the year)?  Can we at eating establishments? How about state and local parks? 

Large gatherings can still remain closed, some things out there can reopen.  Let’s take a look at how we are doing things.  

[Oxbow6]

ND American Legion Baseball just cancelled the summer season in the state.

MSUM cancelled all summer theater programs.

[homer]

3 hours ago, yzerman19 said:

Gov. Newsome was just on the national media signaling for extended shutdown.  I receive the same data that he does, but apparently I see things differently.  I see trailing indicators remaining steady but leading indicators trending down...significantly.  We also just had a study come out of USC with the belief that there is higher immunity in the general population than previously believed.

Newsome signaled that the rules in CA could apply through the summer into the fall.  He reinforced vaccine and testing...

Looks like the goal posts moved.

I am fortunate to have job security through this with the ability to work from home and to be in a healthcare sector that is not hurt by this.  I do feel the pain of my children missing their friends and their activities.  My daughter especially misses her friends and teacher.  My son is reeling in fear that the Brick Hockey Tournament he worked so hard to earn a place at will be canceled.  I can't imagine if financial insecurity was added to my plate as it is for many.  Everybody needs hope of normalcy returning before we all break down.  Public Health is not the superordinate objective of a people or their government.  It is one of a number of things- our politicians need to remember that.  America is literally a month from chaos...I pray that politics does not blind policy makers.   

I can deal with my children having events cancelled or missing friends.  We can get past that.  My worry is their future when we have to do hundreds of billions dollar bailouts every month because of our current shutdown. 

[yzerman19]

1 minute ago, homer said:

I can deal with my children having events cancelled or missing friends.  We can get past that.  My worry is their future when we have to do hundreds of billions dollar bailouts every month because of our current shutdown. 

Futures mortgaged...no doubt

[yzerman19]

7 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

ND American Legion Baseball just cancelled the summer season in the state.

MSUM cancelled all summer theater programs.

This is in the same vein as I heard from Newsome today.  No nothing, ever again.  Not until every possible covid death is prevented.  

Oh and if you aren’t in favor of perpetual lockdown, you are heartless...one death that could be avoided with totalitarianism is too many!!!!

[mikejm]

1 hour ago, yzerman19 said:

Were they imposed by police force or were people responsible and laid low if those in their home were sick?  

They were imposed by the community's police powers, through the public health department.

[Siouxphan27]

1 hour ago, yzerman19 said:

Who determined if someone was clear of infection?  Did someone have to get sick first or was everyone presumed sick until they had a test to prove otherwise?  This is the slope that I am worried about.  

The idea of having to prove that you are "healthy" in order to function in society is scary.

Are we on the road to this?

 

[dynato]

2 minutes ago, keikla said:

Before things got hella crazy around here, it was the DOH that tracked infected individuals and contacts.  There was only law enforcement involvement for those who knowingly and willingly broke quarantine (i.e the church pastor who gave out communion to a large congregation while waiting for his test results to come back...).

LM Windpower employees are required to stay home for 14 days or face legal action. Their spouses, however, faced no such restriction, it was only suggested they stay home. 

My co-workers wife came into direct contact with a spouse of someone who tested positive at the LM Windpower outbreak. His wife was tested last week and everyone he came into contact was advised by a medical professional to quarantine until his wife test results come back (3-5 business day results). If his wife tests positive, then they start going down the line of contacts and testing them.

[mikejm]

15 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

MSUM cancelled all summer theater programs.

MSUM killed the entire Theatre Arts department, among other cuts.
Not covid related.

[Oxbow6]

26 minutes ago, homer said:

I can deal with my children having events cancelled or missing friends.  We can get past that.  My worry is their future when we have to do hundreds of billions dollar bailouts every month because of our current shutdown. 

So your kids are on board with this??

Because my teenage daughters are not for much longer. Nor are any of their classmates, friends or teammates. Kids of all people need hope that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. 

[Oxbow6]

7 minutes ago, mikejm said:

MSUM killed the entire Theatre Arts department, among other cuts.
Not covid related.

Let's just "presume" COVID killed it......

[dynato]

4 minutes ago, keikla said:

I find this odd.  If the state is more aggressive in cases of known or suspected exposure, then it allows them to be less aggressive with concerns of community spread.

I found it strange too. That they are able to track it to such a degree, but not enforce it. 

https://www.grandforksherald.com/news/crime-and-courts/5386148-LM-Wind-Power-quarantine-order-could-be-difficult-to-enforce-says-local-law-enforcement

[Redneksioux]

3 minutes ago, keikla said:

I find this odd.  If the state is more aggressive in cases of known or suspected exposure, then it allows them to be less aggressive with concerns of community spread.

Agreed.

But we operate off facts not fear:) We know there was an outbreak at LM. Why fear that it spread within the employee households?

[Redneksioux]

15 minutes ago, keikla said:

I'd actually be interested to know the percentage of cases in which one family member got it but did not spread to any others in the same immediate household.  This would require the ability to also test those who were asymptomatic to truly know if they were infected, but I would expect a pretty high transfer rate.

LM has roughly 900 employees. They tested about 425 employees or contacts of employees last week. I believe there is plans to test more this week based on last week's results, but haven't heard much chatter on this since.

 

I doubt we'll be getting any percentage stats shared of family members affected. The stats are already quite confusing as the some of the positives ended up as MN residents and some of the positives were from community spread from LM employees.

[yzerman19]

There is a very academic approach that is interested in studying this thing and learning everything about it...

While intellectually curious, I am more concerned with how it informs actions on the go forward.

[petey23]

51 minutes ago, yzerman19 said:

This is in the same vein as I heard from Newsome today.  No nothing, ever again.  Not until every possible covid death is prevented.  

Oh and if you aren’t in favor of perpetual lockdown, you are heartless...one death that could be avoided with totalitarianism is too many!!!!

If we can prevent one suicide by re-opening America for work, should we do it?

[petey23]

39 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

Let's just "presume" COVID killed it......

Apparently COVID is also to blame for some states poor fiscal management over the past 30-40 years which has admittingly been amplified by the current health crisis.

[UNDBIZ]

23 minutes ago, keikla said:

https://apnews.com/a5077c7227b8eb8b0dc23423c0bbe2b2

Starting to get more feedback on the use of hydroxychloroquine in covid19.  This article is from the VA system. 

Our internal analysis has showed that patients who received hydroxychloroquine had more ICU admissions and increased oxygen requirements than those who did not.  For reference, we categorized cohorts based on symptom severity so as to not skew the results if only 'sicker' patients were given hydroxychloroquine.

Based on our findings, we will likely remove hydroxychloroquine entirely from our treatment protocols.  The problem is that there is no alternative.  Without inhibition of viral replication, you just sit there and hope patients don't decompensate.

I'll tag @iramurphy just in case he gave up on the thread with all the crap that was posted earlier. 

Any concern that this was simply a retrospective analysis rather than a properly controlled, randomized study?  

Edit:  NM, found it

Quote

we cannot rule out the possibility of selection bias or residual confounding

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20065920v1.full.pdf

[homer]

1 hour ago, Oxbow6 said:

So your kids are on board with this??

Because my teenage daughters are not for much longer. Nor are any of their classmates, friends or teammates. Kids of all people need hope that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. 

They are not “OK” with it but if I had to choose between all or nothing knowing “all” isn’t going to happen I am going to sign up for not having soccer tournaments in Blaine and dance competitions at Fargo North to allow people to get back to work.

Also, what is stopping you from having your daughters friends over or allowing your daughters to go to their houses?  You can allow them to return to some normalcy yourself without someone giving you the green light.   Supply some of the hope yourself.  

[Oxbow6]

32 minutes ago, homer said:

They are not “OK” with it but if I had to choose between all or nothing knowing “all” isn’t going to happen I am going to sign up for not having soccer tournaments in Blaine and dance competitions at Fargo North to allow people to get back to work.

Also, what is stopping you from having your daughters friends over or allowing your daughters to go to their houses?  You can allow them to return to some normalcy yourself without someone giving you the green light.   Supply some of the hope yourself.  

Valid points and they are but expound on the bolded part. How are kids getting back to school, soccer, dance, summer theater, Legion baseball, ect... and people going back to work over the next couple to few weeks mutually exclusive??? There's zero rational behind that. Those two scenarios can happen at the same time.  I'll assume your kids haven't been to a grocery store, Walmart, Target since mid March. 

Who said it had to be "all or nothing"? Going to a Shawn Mendes concert is a whole lot different than going to a dance class or soccer/baseball practice.