2020 Dumpster Fire (Enter at your own risk)

[dynato]

44 minutes ago, Kab said:

Will be interesting to see how a hospital comes out on this with reimbursement and what their costs are.

Any CAH being reimbursed on cost will still lose money since reimbursement is being paid at 99% of cost and being on sequestration reduction for Medicare patients.

CAHS with clinics  have lost 60% or more of their volume since this took place, cash flow is terrible.

As part of the first trillion dollar stimulus, $100B has at least been set aside for these hospital systems and their loss of revenue. One concern is that these funds are considered first come first serve, not necessarily appropriated. 

I am curious to know if a similar fund will be set up for doctors and nurses that have been impacted beyond their typical call of duty. Insane hours, elevated risk, insufficient supplies, displaced from their living situation or isolation themselves from family. 

[Oxbow6]

7 minutes ago, dynato said:

As part of the first trillion dollar stimulus, $100B has at least been set aside for these hospital systems and their loss of revenue. One concern is that these funds are considered first come first serve, not necessarily appropriated. 

 

I'd say the healthcare systems just within NYC alone are losing well north of $100M in combined revenue every single day.

[dynato]

1 minute ago, Oxbow6 said:

I'd say the healthcare systems just within NYC alone are losing well north of $100M every single day.

$100B is quoted as being equal to roughly one month of total U.S. hospital operating revenue, which is how the administration chose the number. 

https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20200409.207680/full/

 

[yzerman19]

Hospital cost structures get into very interesting accounting discussions....lots of D & A and other non-cash expenses.  It’s a very Let’s say delicate analysis. 
 

True Fact though is that in most industries, the kind of margin % you pull in care delivery or insurance is a joke.  Even EBITDA is ridiculously low, and the large reserves by insurers are mandated.  On fully insured products, they have a legislated 15% MLR...so for them pulling a 6% operating margin is a win.

[Cratter]

On 3/14/2020 at 1:51 PM, Cratter said:

 

 

Wonder what his experts are predicting now?

[UND1983]

2 minutes ago, Cratter said:

Wonder what his experts are predicting now?

That guy is considered a renowned expert.  "it was all preventable".  

[bison73]

1 hour ago, UND1983 said:

That guy is considered a renowned expert.  "it was all preventable".  

https://www.foxnews.com/world/taiwan...ut-coronavirus

"Taiwan releases December email to WHO showing unheeded warning about coronavirus"

The World Health Organization (WHO) is under fire after Taiwan released the contents of a December email inquiring about the person to person spread of COVID-19, saying it was instead ignored by WHO and denied adequate information to fight the virus.


Taiwan is accusing WHO of downplaying the severity and spread of the coronavirus in an attempt to pander to China even after Taiwan sounded the alarm about at least seven cases of atypical pneumonia that they were aware of in Wuhan where the virus originated.......

....WHO ignored warnings from Taiwan and continued to reiterate China's false talking points -- that "there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission" of the novel pathogen even as late as Jan 14.

In addition, the WHO failed to mandate that Chinese officials share the viral strains that would have allowed diagnostic tests to have been produced significantly earlier worldwide.

[bison73]

2 hours ago, Cratter said:

Wonder what his experts are predicting now?

Not even 1/10 of that.

[MafiaMan]

5 hours ago, keikla said:

Just saw online that Coors Light delivered 150 cans to this lady today.  Sometimes the internet is the scourge of the earth, but sometimes it facilitates wonderful things.

OK, so what happens when she runs out again this weekend?

[Oxbow6]

NY is basically generating almost half of the virus data in this country. As of yesterday afternoon 6100+ deaths were reported in NYC. Zero deaths under 17 years old. Roughly 250 deaths between 18-45. Of those roughly 250 deaths only 10% of those that died were "healthy". So 0.4% of all NYC COVID deaths as of yesterday were "healthy" people 45 and younger. They had no contributing or underlying health issues. To date there have been 2.5x as many NYC murders as those under 45 and healthy who have died from COVID in NYC. One other interesting note is the employed worker's average age in this country is 42. 

[Oxbow6]

21 minutes ago, keikla said:

Also, while death is the obvious endpoint, I don't like making it the only endpoint.  A couple years ago, the flu season was really bad for younger adults in the 20-40 range, many requiring ventilation to survive.  One of those young patients was vented and on pressors for several weeks.  He eventually recovered, but lost both hands due to necrosis secondary to being on longterm pressors.  People like that are not included in the death total, but there is no denying that his life was forever altered because of the course of the disease.  

Of the 20% of vented patients surviving, most are in that healthy, under 45 yo category.  But just because they didn't die doesn't lessen the severity of what the disease did to them and the possible long term consequences either of the disease itself (which we dont know about yet) or the treatment.

So where does this end??? This country has been told for weeks to "stay at home". Cancel your lives as you know it. Why? Do this so that we all can........."save lives". I'm not disagreeing with you on anything above but as you know people every minute of every day get sick or fall ill from something that may or will affect their lives long term short of death. What's the end game? No new deaths? Obviously not. No new cases that do not result in long term health consequences?? If so...in reality when is that? Do we shut down the country now during flu season based on your examples? 

BTW I know of 2 people that will not have to worry about long term consequences of COVID or even getting COVID because they took their own lives due to what this crisis overwhelmed them with.

[MafiaMan]

I believe the same number of victims in ND died from coronavirus the other day as did those driving a tractor and being rear-ended by a semi-truck...

[Siouxperman8]

On 4/13/2020 at 8:47 AM, keikla said:

I remember standing at an intersection in Germany, waiting for the crosswalk light to signal it was ok to walk.  There were no cars in sight, and yet the large number of pedestrians patiently waited for that light to turn.  I remember being absolutely flabbergasted at the adherence to the rules.  It seems to have served them quite well.

I used to go to Munich every year for work and thought the same.  I sometimes just ran across the intersection.   

One day I watched the cops writing 30 Euro tickets to people for walking against the light.  A few were tourists and pleaded ignorance.  Didn't matter.

I started waiting for the light like everyone else.

[tnt]

So for you experts in the stock market, would you be taking profits and getting out of some positions because of the recent rally.  It seems like a lot of this is just irrational exuberance over some positive signs in the Coronavirus fight, and that there is a lot of hardship to come for many companies including some whose stock has gained due to a light at the end of the tunnel. 

[homer]

56 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

So where does this end??? This country has been told for weeks to "stay at home". Cancel your lives as you know it. Why? Do this so that we all can........."save lives". I'm not disagreeing with you on anything above but as you know people every minute of every day get sick or fall ill from something that may or will affect their lives long term short of death. What's the end game? No new deaths? Obviously not. No new cases that do not result in long term health consequences?? If so...in reality when is that? Do we shut down the country now during flu season based on your examples? 

BTW I know of 2 people that will not have to worry about long term consequences of COVID or even getting COVID because they took their own lives due to what this crisis overwhelmed them with.

Very unfortunate.  I’m assuming they didn’t have other issues going on prior to the crisis and decided to take their lives because of this.  

Lots going on right now for a lot of people. 

[yzerman19]

27 minutes ago, tnt said:

So for you experts in the stock market, would you be taking profits and getting out of some positions because of the recent rally.  It seems like a lot of this is just irrational exuberance over some positive signs in the Coronavirus fight, and that there is a lot of hardship to come for many companies including some whose stock has gained due to a light at the end of the tunnel. 

Market prices have proven irrational.  The fundamentals are going to be lousy for awhile, and dividends and buybacks aren’t likely to be happening anytime soon.  That said, all of that is likely already priced into the markets.  You also have a Fed making unprecedented moves and statements...talking about buying equities...already thry’ve taken over the bond market.  At the end of the day it’s supply and demand...where are people (And institutions) going to park their money?

to me it all boils down to this:  would you kick yourself harder for missing a 20% gainer (opportunity cost) or for losing 20% of what you have? Probably also depends on how much you have to begin with.
 

clearly you can diversify (which is always smart)

its a mixed bag out there.  I personally am very conservative right now:  65% cash, 25% stock, and 10% private equity.

[southpaw]

3 hours ago, Oxbow6 said:

NY is basically generating almost half of the virus data in this country. As of yesterday afternoon 6100+ deaths were reported in NYC. Zero deaths under 17 years old. Roughly 250 deaths between 18-45. Of those roughly 250 deaths only 10% of those that died were "healthy". So 0.4% of all NYC COVID deaths as of yesterday were "healthy" people 45 and younger. They had no contributing or underlying health issues. To date there have been 2.5x as many NYC murders as those under 45 and healthy who have died from COVID in NYC. One other interesting note is the employed worker's average age in this country is 42. 

And if we only select people who have the letter P in their last name, that's basically like 3 people. That many people died yesterday from eating ice cream too fast and their brain literally froze. 

Clearly, these stats show coronavirus isn't a problem. 

[Oxbow6]

3 minutes ago, southpaw said:

And if we only select people who have the letter P in their last name, that's basically like 3 people. That many people died yesterday from eating ice cream too fast and their brain literally froze. 

Clearly, these stats show coronavirus isn't a problem. 

What facts do you want? Seriously question. As of yesterday that 6100+ was over 30% of all deaths in the country. Is that 30% not a reasonable data base?  

[UND1983]

7 minutes ago, southpaw said:

And if we only select people who have the letter P in their last name, that's basically like 3 people. That many people died yesterday from eating ice cream too fast and their brain literally froze. 

Clearly, these stats show coronavirus isn't a problem. 

How long do we continue to severely limit the economy and jobs?  

[tnt]

26 minutes ago, yzerman19 said:

Market prices have proven irrational.  The fundamentals are going to be lousy for awhile, and dividends and buybacks aren’t likely to be happening anytime soon.  That said, all of that is likely already priced into the markets.  You also have a Fed making unprecedented moves and statements...talking about buying equities...already thry’ve taken over the bond market.  At the end of the day it’s supply and demand...where are people (And institutions) going to park their money?

to me it all boils down to this:  would you kick yourself harder for missing a 20% gainer (opportunity cost) or for losing 20% of what you have? Probably also depends on how much you have to begin with.
 

clearly you can diversify (which is always smart)

its a mixed bag out there.  I personally am very conservative right now:  65% cash, 25% stock, and 10% private equity.

Thanks.  I have a bit in cash due to transferring an account, and was thinking about buying in increments on the way down, but haven't really had the opportunity to do so.  Just assumed we would be seeing more volatility both up and down, but haven't seen much on the downside for the past week or so.  

[yzerman19]

I personally like the per million stats for tracking covid.  You could have a small nation basically wiped out with very few cases, criticals, and deaths and still report a lower raw number.  

When you look at the per million stats, the USA is doing fine among the non-totalitarian nations of the world.  

In fact if you pull NY, NJ and LA out of the mix, the remaining 47 state per million stats are quite good.  The 3 largest states in the union:  CA, TX, FL all have very good per million numbers.  

[MafiaMan]

2 hours ago, keikla said:

The total number of covid deaths in ND is the same as the covid deaths of family members of my dept staff. 

I am not belittling your situation in New York, keikla, but some perspective is needed in North Dakota.  I am sorry for your co-workers’ loss.  

My parents are 75 and my dad is on oxygen full-time. This is a death sentence for him should he catch it.  However, they have already told me that if this drags on for months, they will fully expect that their young grandkids come visit them and give them some hugs, coronavirus be damned.  

[MafiaMan]

36 minutes ago, southpaw said:

And if we only select people who have the letter P in their last name, that's basically like 3 people. That many people died yesterday from eating ice cream too fast and their brain literally froze. 

Clearly, these stats show coronavirus isn't a problem. 

Clearly, these stats show that we need to ban ice cream sales nationwide until further notice until it can be deemed brain-freeze free and not harm anyone.  

[homer]

6 minutes ago, MafiaMan said:

I am not belittling your situation in New York, keikla, but some perspective is needed in North Dakota.  I am sorry for your co-workers’ loss.  

My parents are 75 and my dad is on oxygen full-time.  This is a death sentence for him should he catch it.  However, they have already told me that if this drags on for months, they will fully expect that their young grandkids come visit them and give them some hugs, coronavirus be damned.  

What’s stopping them from going now?  

[Blackheart]

49 minutes ago, homer said:

What’s stopping them from going now?  

Only essential workers/people allowed into ND from other states?