2016 Season

[2TRU4U]

Sorry to resurrect this discussion, but I was on vacation last week without decent internet access. This is not regarding any particular player, but my question is--should the mere fact that a player redshirts mean that he should automatically get the fifth year on scholarship? I don't pretend to know the "right" answer, but I do struggle with whether it's entirely fair to give a player who never pans out a fifth year on scholarship, when so many players now don't redshirt, either out of necessity or because they're just too good, and therefore only get four years. To me, the more fair way to do things would be to essentially guarantee four years, so long as certain expectations are met in terms of working hard, staying out of trouble and taking care of business in the classroom. The fifth year would be decided on more of a case-by-case basis, which would be explained up front when the decision as to whether to redshirt or not is made. For all I know, this is done already.

EDIT: I don't know what happened with the above post I attempted to quote, but I couldn't seem to get it fixed using the edit function.

I'm not sure if it is mandatory by the NCAA or if some schools choose to do it or not, but I know that players that do not redshirt and play their first 4 years, are still awarded a scholarship the fifth year.  Some schools have them student coach, or help in other ways.

[siouxfan512]

Ok, I got tired of moping about the fact that we were completely snubbed from the playoffs, so I decided to take a look at our non-conference schedule for next season. A lot to be determined before then, and there will certainly be some new faces in the mix for UND as well as our opponents, but here it is. I see UND starting out 2-1 in the non-conference schedule, but if the 2015 season taught us anything, surprises can happen. So maybe with a grade A performance, we can pick up another (and this time quality) FBS win. Feel free to pick this apart and comment, but hopefully it makes a good read for those of us who need some football material to read in lieu of missing the playoffs.

 

Stony Brook (5-5)(3-5 conf.)

Finished 10^th in the Colonial Athletic Conference

Last meeting was 2014 in Grand Forks; UND won 13-3

Key Win:

• Beat New Hampshire  31-6 (giving them more wins against playoff teams than E. Illinois J )

 

Key Departures:

• QB Conor Bednarski

• DL Victor Ochi (12 solo sacks, 2 assisted sacks, 14 solo TFL, 5 assisted TFL)

 

Rankings within CAA

• Scoring - 7^th - 17.3 PPG

• Rushing – 7^th – 152.7 YPG

• Passing – 9^th – 148.1 YPG

• Scoring D – 1^st – 15.7 PPG

• Rushing D – 1^st – 104.6 YPG (Stony Brook, meet John Santiago)

• Passing D – 1^st – 145.5 YPG

 

This really shouldn’t be much of a contest. Stony Brook’s strength is their defense, but if our offense can emerge like we did late this season, then UND should roll by halftime. Hopefully that is the case, because if you lose a game like this, you are already a long to make the playoffs. SB will probably stop some drives, but it looks like their offense continues to be anemic. UND needs to open up a heavy lead, and then start trying some different things to prep for the following week.

 

Bowling Green (9-3) (7-1 conf.)

Finished 1^st in the Mid-American Conference – East (Plays N Illinois this weekend for conference championship)

Won 2 games vs Big 10 (Maryland and Purdue)

Key Departures:

• QB Matt Johnson (4465 Yds, 41 TDs,

• RB Travis Greene (1036 Yds,  12 TDs)

• DB Dernard Turner (4 int, 1 TD)

 

Key Returning Players:

• WR Gehrig Dieter (82 Rec, 882 Yds, 9 TDs)

• WR Roger Lewis (76 Rec, 1401 Yds, 14 TDs) (Hi Roger, I’d like you to meet Cole Reyes J )

• WR Ronnie Moore (62 Rec, 818 Yds, 5 TDs)

• DB Alfonso Mack (5 int)

 Rankings withing MAC

• Scoring – 1^st – 44.2 PPG

• Rushing – 5^th – 178.2 YPG

• Passing – 1^st – 387.8 YPG

• Scoring D – 8^th – 27.8 PPG

• Rushing D – 7^th – 166.2 YPG

• Passing D – 11^th – 255.2 YPG

 

This will be a much bigger test than playing Wyoming. Fortunately, BGSU will be losing a monster of a QB, as well as their senior RB. Unfortunately, BGSU will likely start James Knapke (6-2, 237) at QB, and he will have several dangerous receivers still on the roster. Knapke took over for an injured Matt Johnson in 2014, and threw for 3173 yards and 15 TDs. It is also worth noting that while BGSU loses starting RB Travis Green, they will still have Fred Coppet who still rushed for just over 700 yards 4 TDs. His average per carry was actually slightly better than Greene, and without Will Ratelle on the field, our linebackers will need to step up (Hopefully Taj Rich comes back really strong).

 

I don’t think BGSU will be as good next year as they were this year, but they will still be a very strong team. Probably not a game you expect to win, but definitely need to be competitive, and if the defense plays well, and our offense is clicking, then who knows. Santiago can always be a game changer and Oliveira will only get better. If Keaton starts next season where he left off, then there is certainly potential in this matchup. Needless to say, this would be UNDs biggest win at the D1 level if they could pull it off.

 

South Dakota (5-6) (3-5 conf.)

Finished 7^th in the dreaded MVFC and somehow was not included in the  2015 FCS Playoffs (Rumor is next year all MVFC teams will get an auto bid)

Key Wins:

• Beat NDSU in Fargo 24-21

 

Key Departures:

• Coach Joe Glenn

• WR Eric Shufford (45 Rec, 470 Yds, 2 TDs)

• LB Keyen Lage (50 solo tackles, 34 assisted, 10 solo TFL, 1 assisted TFL)

 

Key Returning Players:

• QB Ryan Saeger (1984 yds, 12 TDs)

• WR B Van Roekel (33 Rec, 518 Yds, 6TDs)

•  A Van Ginkel (9 solo sacks, 17 solo TFL, 2 assisted TFL)

Rankings within MVFC

• Scoring –  9^th – 21 PPG

• Rushing – 7^th – 165.7 YPG

• Passing – 7^th – 183.7 YPG

• Scoring D – 6^th – 25.5 PPG

• Rushing D – 4^th – 159.8 YPG

• Passing D – 3^rd – 184.7 YPG

 

My first inclination is that regardless of score, or how many points UND can rack up, the win (and an automatic playoff spot) should go to USD, purely for having the grapes to be a part of the amazing MVFC (sense the sarcasm). In reality, this is a very winnable game for UND, especially at home. Though USD has certainly shown they can play spoiler, go ask about it on bisonville, I dare you. This game is winnable, but will be a good measuring stick. While USD is not a top team right now, they are very capable, and they do play in a tough conference. I still take UND at home.

[Longtime fan]

 Stoney's defense, correct me if I'm wrong, led the nation in yards ( 250 ish yds/game).  So its legit.   It might take a qtr or so to get the offense going for und, I'm thinking a 27-7 victory. 

Bowling green is a bad matchup for und.   They return two tall 6'3"/6'2"and fast receivers.  Both were parade all Americans.   The sen qb to start, started the yr before and threw for over 3000.  The sen rb is much better then their starter now and I think they lose only one lineman.  They also bring back 2 studs linebackers on d.  Playing ohio st the week before playing und, might make for a letdown on their behalf ?? Bowling 47-24

USD with coaching changes is something to watch.  They bring back  some talent.  It's Unds first home game and the o line will be starting to sync.   Und 34-24

[UNDvince97-01]

I seem to remember a discussion about Stony Brook's defense a couple years ago?

[siouxfan512]

 Stoney's defense, correct me if I'm wrong, led the nation in yards ( 250 ish yds/game).  So its legit.   It might take a qtr or so to get the offense going for und, I'm thinking a 27-7 victory. 

Bowling green is a bad matchup for und.   They return two tall 6'3"/6'2"and fast receivers.  Both were parade all Americans.   The sen qb to start, started the yr before and threw for over 3000.  The sen rb is much better then their starter now and I think they lose only one lineman.  They also bring back 2 studs linebackers on d.  Playing ohio st the week before playing und, might make for a letdown on their behalf ?? Bowling 47-24

USD with coaching changes is something to watch.  They bring back  some talent.  It's Unds first home game and the o line will be starting to sync.   Und 34-24

I agree, we will have trouble matching up with a high octane pass game, and while Reyes is good, and Arnell should be back, we are still really young at corner. Hopefully there will be quite a bit of offseason development, and I would also hope the coaches are looking at any potential FBS dropdowns for talent, speed and depth. Our DL will continue to improve too, so this will be a game we getting quick pressure on the QB is an absolute must.

As for the RB ... I know we don't typically play this caliber of a team, but based on what we saw from our guys this year, I feel pretty confident that we can protect the run. Though Ratelle will be sorely missed.

[UNDColorado]

Ratelle will definitely be missed but remember Rich is a heckuva player and we seem to have some pretty good depth there. I am more interested in how the secondary progresses.

Side note- Since Arnell did not take a standard redshirt and played in 30% or less games this season, Is he eligible for e medical redshirt?

[UND-FB-FAN]

I expect UND to start the season 3-0, although a loss at Bowling Green and starting 2-1 wouldn't hurt the Big Sky Conference championship aspirations that the 2016 squad should have. Let's remember, Bowling Green is in the MAC, not the Big 10 or PAC 12; I expect UND to at least play them close if not win. 

[Oxbow6]

I seem to remember a discussion about Stony Brook's defense a couple years ago?

Just behind the '85 CHI Bears D if I remember correctly............

[siouxfan512]

I expect UND to start the season 3-0, although a loss at Bowling Green and starting 2-1 wouldn't hurt the Big Sky Conference champion aspirations that the 2016 squad should have. Let's remember, Bowling Green is in the MAC, not the Big 10 or PAC 12; I expect UND to at least play them close if not win. 

I love the confidence, but lets not discount that this may be a game we want to lose. The FCS made it very clear how important quality losses are.

As for their conference, I agree this isn't like playing a big ten team, but they did beat two big ten teams this past season. I agree though, if UND wants to keep elevating themselves to be a FCS power, then they need to be able to win, or at least compete with teams like this. If Portland St can beat Washington St, then why can't UND beat BGSU.

I just love that football hype seems to be growing, hopefully it transpires into more fans at the Alerus next season.

[UND-FB-FAN]

I love the confidence, but lets not discount that this may be a game we want to lose. The FCS made it very clear how important quality losses are.

As for their conference, I agree this isn't like playing a big ten team, but they did beat two big ten teams this past season. I agree though, if UND wants to keep elevating themselves to be a FCS power, then they need to be able to win, or at least compete with teams like this. If Portland St can beat Washington St, then why can't UND beat BGSU.

I just love that football hype seems to be growing, hopefully it transpires into more fans at the Alerus next season.

My train of thought is simple: UND is coming off a 7-4 season (3-game winning streak) with most of that team returning (save for the interior offensive line and Will Ratelle, he will be missed); UND should expect to win every game they play in because of who UND has returning and, also, the relatively average level of competition on the schedule. Lastly, UND should be confident and play to win the Big Sky Conference in 2016 and every season after that; fortunately, that is the mindset that Bubba has begun to establish for UND football. 

[siouxfan512]

My train of thought is simple: UND is coming off a 7-4 season (3-game winning streak) with most of that team returning (save for the interior offensive line and Will Ratelle, he will be missed); UND should expect to win every game they play in because of who UND has returning and, also, the relatively average level of competition on the schedule. Lastly, UND should be confident and play to win the Big Sky Conference in 2016 and every season after that; fortunately, that is the mindset that Bubba has begun to establish for UND football. 

Makes sense to me. I do think that some of the toughest teams we will see next year, are home games, which should definitely help.

Home Games

• South Dakota
• Cal Poly - Our run shut the door on them this year, lets do it again
• Southern Utah - Glad this game is at home
• Weber State - Redemption from blowing our 4th quarter lead
• Northern Arizona - Another good one to have at home; Their QB is going to be a real stud in this league

Away Games

• Stony Brook - Win it
• Bowling Green - Would be a much bigger win than Wyoming
• Montana State - We showed we can beat them, but this will be a very difficult road game
• Sacramento State - Should win
• Idaho State - Should win; Major redemption game
• Northern Colorado - Should win; If this years game was indicative of anything, UND should roll

[siouxfan512]

Ratelle will definitely be missed but remember Rich is a heckuva player and we seem to have some pretty good depth there. I am more interested in how the secondary progresses.

Side note- Since Arnell did not take a standard redshirt and played in 30% or less games this season, Is he eligible for e medical redshirt?

Sure hope so, because he was looking pretty good. Would be nice to have that much stability at the safety position for 2 more years. Unfortunately, I have no idea how that works. Might be something to ask Miller or Schloss during their weekly online chats.

[siouxfan512]

Well, I will be a huge BGSU fan week one. They won't be Ohio St, but if they could, that would make quite the trap game when UND comes to town.

[CMSioux]

Makes sense to me. I do think that some of the toughest teams we will see next year, are home games, which should definitely help.

Home Games

• South Dakota
• Cal Poly - Our run shut the door on them this year, lets do it again
• Southern Utah - Glad this game is at home
• Weber State - Redemption from blowing our 4th quarter lead
• Northern Arizona - Another good one to have at home; Their QB is going to be a real stud in this league

Away Games

• Stony Brook - Win it
• Bowling Green - Would be a much bigger win than Wyoming
• Montana State - We showed we can beat them, but this will be a very difficult road game
• Sacramento State - Should win
• Idaho State - Should win; Major redemption game
• Northern Colorado - Should win; If this years game was indicative of anything, UND should roll

I know this is troll bait but this looks like an 8-3 season at worst - let's see the committee leave us out then. 

[Hambone]

Couple random things:

I'd heard Arnell had discussed a medical redshirt - not sure the likelihood but seems like he'd have a good shot.

Bowling Green could be a different team.  Even though he's denying it (and the UCF job, where he was heavily rumored, went to Scott Frost), Dino Babers could very well end up elsewhere.  It could depend on who they hire to see if they are still the same high octane offense.

Looking forward to next year

[Longtime fan]

Makes sense to me. I do think that some of the toughest teams we will see next year, are home games, which should definitely help.

Home Games

• South Dakota
• Cal Poly - Our run shut the door on them this year, lets do it again
• Southern Utah - Glad this game is at home
• Weber State - Redemption from blowing our 4th quarter lead
• Northern Arizona - Another good one to have at home; Their QB is going to be a real stud in this league

Away Games

• Stony Brook - Win it
• Bowling Green - Would be a much bigger win than Wyoming
• Montana State - We showed we can beat them, but this will be a very difficult road game
• Sacramento State - Should win
• Idaho State - Should win; Major redemption game
• Northern Colorado - Should win; If this years game was indicative of anything, UND should roll

That's a nice home schedule.  A familiar South Dakota team that is improved will definitely be a test.   Und wins. Cal poly is always tough but play perfectly into Unds mojo.  Und big.  After this weekend and seeing S Utah, I wasn't that impressed.   Think und wins big on that one also.  Weber st returns some really good talent and got better as the year went on, they could be very much improved.  Und wins but not by much.  Northern Arizona will be very dangerous.  We need to bring a lot of noise for that one. Toss up but going with und. 

Of the away games, other  then bowling green, montana st is the only possible loss that I see.   

If we can upset bowling green,  I would like to think that would perk interest and the attendance would increase. Keep the fingers crossed.  I looks like Unds home schedule is tougher then the away games.  I'm going 9-2 for the year.  

 Someone mentioned earlier about Unds bye week. It's after the last regular season game!?!  If und was able to position themselves into a seed, that means 2 weeks off!  20 days into between games???? I don't like it.  Now if they made the playoffs without a seed, that works out great with a bye week to get healthy.  Very weird bye week schedule regardless 

[North Dakota]

Anything less then 8-3 next season will be a disappointment. 

[SWSiouxMN]

It will be interesting to see how the team will be able to handle the increased expectations. 

[UND-FB-FAN]

Anything less then 8-3 next season will be a disappointment. 

Agreed. I'm thinking 9-2, Big Sky Conference autobid, and an FCS playoff seeding.

[darell1976]

Anything less then 8-3 next season will be a disappointment. 

8-3? Wow this is great. I like seeing talk like this so quick after .500 was the bar now Bubba has risen that bar. I hope we can get a conference title that way there will be no doubt we will be playoff bound.

[SiouxFan100]

8-3? Wow this is great. I like seeing talk like this so quick after .500 was the bar now Bubba has risen that bar. I hope we can get a conference title that way there will be no doubt we will be playoff bound.

I wouldn't have dared to imagine thinking about going 9-2 next year. Makes for a more enjoyable discussion. Sure helps to be optimistic about another sport while we struggle with bb and volleyball.

[shep]

I started a "Next year" thread where some of this is already being discussed. Just wondering if it can be merged into that? How? Thought it doesn't matter much to me.

[UNDBIZ]

I started a "Next year" thread where some of this is already being discussed. Just wondering if it can be merged into that? How? Thought it doesn't matter much to me.

Done.

[geaux_sioux]

Tim Dulin tweeted that he went from 174lbs to 190lbs already..... I bet he's at or above 200 by spring. He seems to be putting in the work to be a beast.

[siouxfan512]

I started a "Next year" thread where some of this is already being discussed. Just wondering if it can be merged into that? How? Thought it doesn't matter much to me.

My bad, I tried checking for a 2016 thread before starting one, but I must have missed yours.