2022-23 University of North Dakota Hockey Season

[The Sicatoka]

Schlossman is talking "xG"" -> expected Goals (for).

Is there an "xGA" (expected goals against) and how's that looking? That should be ugly given the consistent defensive lapses. 

[stoneySIOUX]

4 minutes ago, The Sicatoka said:

Schlossman is talking "xG"" -> expected Goals (for).

Is there an "xGA" (expected goals against) and how's that looking? That should be ugly given the consistent defensive lapses. 

Close. He's gotten this expanded...

UND's expected goals against this season: 49.71. It has allowed 58. That means the goaltenders have allowed 8.3 more goals than expected — which is the most in the NCHC. Western Michigan is second at 5.8. Denver is third at 0.65.

They're (the goalies) not seeing many shots. UND ranks sixth in the nation — tied with top-ranked Denver — in fewest shots on goal allowed per game (24.5). Yet despite the low shot totals, xG still predicts UND should be way down at 39th nationally in goals against (2.92).

That wide disparity between shots allowed and expected goals-against tells the story that UND may not give up many shots, but when it does, they're quite often high danger ones.

[skateshattrick]

15 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

Misread the ASU game. Premise to remains the same......DU grossly outplayed UND both nights. Against this?? What realistic value does it bring is the bigger question. For anyone to think this team is anywhere close to a 13-4 team as the xG metric suggest is ridiculous. 

 

Least Schloss is loyal to carrying the water for this program.  I'd be more interested in Schloss asking the question to BB about Brianna and how did she acquire that TM? But I digress......

I disagree that DU outplayed UND both nights. I thought UND was the better team on Friday and deserved a better fate. You are correct about Saturday though--DU absolutely dominated that game and UND was lucky to be tied 2-2 late in the 2nd. 

[The Sicatoka]

Quote

That wide disparity between shots allowed and expected goals-against tells the story that UND may not give up many shots, but when it does, they're quite often high danger ones.

Translated: defensive lapses. 

[skateshattrick]

1 minute ago, The Sicatoka said:

Translated: defensive lapses. 

And subpar goaltending. Go back to the Friday night game against DU. DU had 6 or 7 powerplays, and still only generated 20 shots on goal. The 1st goal was a defensive lapse, but the 2nd goal was in the slot, past the dots and not screened. DeRidder just missed it with his glove. The 3rd and game winning goal was even worse. The initial shot was a weak shot from the point that the goalie has to control, but the goalie didn't have his paddle down and left a big rebound leading to an easy goal. As bad as DeRidder has been at times, Hellsten has been even worse. It also came at a time when UND had all the momentum after UND tied it early in the 3rd. Yes, there have been defensive lapses, but goaltending has been atrocious. 

[Oxbow6]

37 minutes ago, stoneySIOUX said:

Arguing statistics that are not at all biased is silly, but even so, that's one of the 17 games! So, even by your measure, if the xG was only wrong once, it was correct 90+% of the time.  

6-8-3 (actual) vs 13-4 (fictional)........ how does 90+% correct fit with this team??

[The Sicatoka]

I may be in the minority on this, but I consider a fat, juicy rebound a defensive lapse. Controlling rebounds is that defender's job. A rebound's net effect is no different than a defenseman in the slot fanning on a clear or going "tape" to the other team with a pass. 

[stoneySIOUX]

28 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

6-8-3 (actual) vs 13-4 (fictional)........ how does 90+% correct fit with this team??

Huh? 

I was referring to the two examples you listed, which end only being one.

Anyway, to your point on how it "fits" with this team, frankly, it doesn't. That's why we've been an outlier. These statistics suggest a positive regression to the mean, based on all of the solid prediction its done throughout the NCHC, and more wins. Will that play out? Who knows?

I'll make it very clear for you... I'm not saying this will happen. But, these stats aren't just some puff of smoke and magic. It's been right overwhelmingly more than it's been wrong this season within college hockey. That gives me hope. Until it's achieved on the ice, it doesn't matter. Idk why anyone is against non-biased statistics. Doesn't make sense. 

 

[The Sicatoka]

@stoneySIOUXI hope you're right, but as Mark Twain used to enjoy pointing out there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

[Blackheart]

2 hours ago, FightingSU said:

What podcast is this? Sioux Lite?

No, that’s the style of hockey UND is playing.

[SIOUXELEVENS]

DeRidder has over .900 save % for his previous 4 years and the last 2 were .918 and .923 so he can play, but why isn’t he? Our defense must be part of that. No sure let’s hope the team finds something positive this weekend. 

[skateshattrick]

3 minutes ago, SIOUXELEVENS said:

DeRidder has over .900 save % for his previous 4 years and the last 2 were .918 and .923 so he can play, but why isn’t he? Our defense must be part of that. No sure let’s hope the team finds something positive this weekend. 

What was his GAA and his winning percentage at Michigan State? MSU appears better this year. Is there a common denominator? I hope you're right that he can play, but he has not been good. He's been better than Hellsten, but that is not saying much. I haven't seen goaltending this bad since Josh Siembeda

[stoneySIOUX]

42 minutes ago, The Sicatoka said:

@stoneySIOUXI hope you're right, but as Mark Twain used to enjoy pointing out there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

It wouldn't be me being right, it'd be the team avoiding dangerous turnovers, getting better goaltending, and potting good chances. I'm hopeful lol. 

[Oxbow6]

1 hour ago, The Sicatoka said:

@stoneySIOUXI hope you're right, but as Mark Twain used to enjoy pointing out there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

"It takes money to buy whiskey"..... so I've been told.

[MafiaMan]

28 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said:

"It takes money to buy whiskey"..... so I've been told.

I was told that outshooting opponents gives you a “bonus boost” in the Pairwise Rankings…can anyone collaborate that for me?

[Goon]

2 hours ago, skateshattrick said:

I disagree that DU outplayed UND both nights. I thought UND was the better team on Friday and deserved a better fate. You are correct about Saturday though--DU absolutely dominated that game and UND was lucky to be tied 2-2 late in the 2nd. 

I thought Friday's game against DU was a 50-50 game that could've gone either way. I thought the play was even for the most part. Saturday wasn't. 

[The Sicatoka]

2 hours ago, Oxbow6 said:

"It takes money to buy whiskey"..... so I've been told.

Solid insight.  

[The Sicatoka]

2 hours ago, MafiaMan said:

I was told that outshooting opponents gives you a “bonus boost” in the Pairwise Rankings…can anyone collaborate that for me?

Pairwise? Boost?
I was told there would be no math. 

[tnt]

3 hours ago, SIOUXELEVENS said:

DeRidder has over .900 save % for his previous 4 years and the last 2 were .918 and .923 so he can play, but why isn’t he? Our defense must be part of that. No sure let’s hope the team finds something positive this weekend. 

Schlossman's article said that although they don't give up many shots, the ones they are giving up are in quality scoring areas.   Hard to have a great save percentage if you aren't getting to save easy ones now and again, but are subject to many quality chances.   

[Cratter]

Of course that's what Brad would write. Lol

[siouxfaninseattle]

2 hours ago, MafiaMan said:

I was told that outshooting opponents gives you a “bonus boost” in the Pairwise Rankings…can anyone collaborate that for me?

I have never heard that, nor is it listed as a component in the Pairwise metrics. And it would make sense that a 7-2 win would count more than a 3-2 win but that's not the case either.

[MafiaMan]

2 minutes ago, siouxfaninseattle said:

I have never heard that, nor is it listed as a component in the Pairwise metrics. And it would make sense that a 7-2 win would count more than a 3-2 win but that's not the case either.

Hi, you must be new here.  My posts are usually full of sarcasm - and that particular cup was DEFINITELY runneth over.  There is no SOG “bonus boost” for the Pairwise Rankings.

[The Sicatoka]

1 minute ago, siouxfaninseattle said:

... it would make sense that a 7-2 win would count more than a 3-2 win ... 

Disagree. No style points. 

W. L. Or T. 

[MafiaMan]

2 minutes ago, The Sicatoka said:

Disagree. No style points. 

W. L. Or T. 

Well, shoot.  And here I was gonna suggest “Style Points” for shootouts if a player scores with a really SICK move.  

[The Sicatoka]

2 minutes ago, MafiaMan said:

... gonna suggest “Style Points” for shootouts ... 

Double for a non-conference game (because that shootout means nothing to standings anyway)?