farce poobah Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Some years, by the start of February's games, things have settled. Not this year: the rankings by RPI (which drives Pairwise to a great degree) are thinly sliced between teams, a bunch of top talent is heading to the Olympic Games (but not evenly spread among top teams - some top teams are hit while others aren't), and there's still a pandemic threatening to cancel games and wreak havoc with schedules (take a look at how difficult St Cloud's February is - well at least on paper and if they actually play 10 games in 23 days that's as tough as I've seen). So ... let's start with the PWR, Sunday morning 1/30/22, using CHN as a data source: 1. Michigan (betcha money they don't stay there) 2. MSU Mankato (no head coach and no top scorer for the Olympic duration) 3. Denver 4. Western Michigan (can't believe Ronnie Attard wasn't picked to represent Team USA) 5. St Cloud St (no head coach and down two players) 6. Quinnipiac (still only one loss in regulation ... to #12 below) 7. Michigan Tech 8. UMD (one player to the Olympics) 9. UMass 10. Ohio St 11. Minnesota (down three players to the Olympics) 12. North Dakota (down one key player) 13. UMass- Lowell 14. Providence 15. Notre Dame 16. American International Since American International makes the top 16, let's assume they get the Atlantic Hockey autobid, and let's assume Quinnipiace gets the ECAC autobid too. And, let's assume there's no upsets in conference tournaments that get someone else in. Worcester Regional: 1. Michigan vs. 16. American International 8. UMD vs 9. U Mass Comment: Holy Cross is hosting, so putting their conference mates there makes some sense. So does putting U Mass as a way to sell tickets. Allentown Regional: 2. MSU - Mankato vs 15. Notre Dame 7. Michigan Tech vs 10. Ohio State Comment: two Big Ten teams may help attendance there, and the top seed Mankato doesn't have to face a lower-seeded home team. Loveland Regional: 3. Denver vs 14. Providence 5. St Cloud State vs 11. Minnesota Comment: Denver as host gets to stay at home. Swapped #6 Quinnipiac into Albany regional below since ECAC hosting there, and to avoid a first round matchup of #5 St Cloud and #12 North Dakota. Albany Regional 4. Western Michigan vs 13. U Mass Lowell 6. Quinnipiac vs 12 North Dakota Comment: ECAC hosting, so I'd expect Quinnipiac to be sent here. I'd bet lots of money the final brackets look nothing like this, but for now ... its a hint of how things might shake out. Flame away! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattim Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, farce poobah said: Some years, by the start of February's games, things have settled. Not this year: the rankings by RPI (which drives Pairwise to a great degree) are thinly sliced between teams, a bunch of top talent is heading to the Olympic Games (but not evenly spread among top teams - some top teams are hit while others aren't), and there's still a pandemic threatening to cancel games and wreak havoc with schedules (take a look at how difficult St Cloud's February is - well at least on paper and if they actually play 10 games in 23 days that's as tough as I've seen). So ... let's start with the PWR, Sunday morning 1/30/22, using CHN as a data source: 1. Michigan (betcha money they don't stay there) 2. MSU Mankato (no head coach and no top scorer for the Olympic duration) 3. Denver 4. Western Michigan (can't believe Ronnie Attard wasn't picked to represent Team USA) 5. St Cloud St (no head coach and down two players) 6. Quinnipiac (still only one loss in regulation ... to #12 below) 7. Michigan Tech 8. UMD (one player to the Olympics) 9. UMass 10. Ohio St 11. Minnesota (down three players to the Olympics) 12. North Dakota (down one key player) 13. UMass- Lowell 14. Providence 15. Notre Dame 16. American International Since American International makes the top 16, let's assume they get the Atlantic Hockey autobid, and let's assume Quinnipiace gets the ECAC autobid too. And, let's assume there's no upsets in conference tournaments that get someone else in. Worcester Regional: 1. Michigan vs. 16. American International 8. UMD vs 9. U Mass Comment: Holy Cross is hosting, so putting their conference mates there makes some sense. So does putting U Mass as a way to sell tickets. Allentown Regional: 2. MSU - Mankato vs 15. Notre Dame 7. Michigan Tech vs 10. Ohio State Comment: two Big Ten teams may help attendance there, and the top seed Mankato doesn't have to face a lower-seeded home team. Loveland Regional: 3. Denver vs 14. Providence 5. St Cloud State vs 11. Minnesota Comment: Denver as host gets to stay at home. Swapped #6 Quinnipiac into Albany regional below since ECAC hosting there, and to avoid a first round matchup of #5 St Cloud and #12 North Dakota. Albany Regional 4. Western Michigan vs 13. U Mass Lowell 6. Quinnipiac vs 12 North Dakota Comment: ECAC hosting, so I'd expect Quinnipiac to be sent here. I'd bet lots of money the final brackets look nothing like this, but for now ... its a hint of how things might shake out. Flame away! Hopefully the NCHC will get 5 teams at the show, Omaha, CC or Miami would likely need to win the NCHC tourney to advance. So much to factor in with Olympic temporary departures and Covid, but I, like most of you, like our chances better now than a week ago: The remaining schedule favors UND To maintain a top 3 spot in the league. No game is easy but we play Duluth, Western (only 2 top five) and then Omaha twice(4 games) and CC. Denver plays 3 of their remaining series against the top five (SC, Western and Duluth) and then Omaha and CC. Western also plays 3 of their remaining against top five (SC, Denver and UND) and then CC and Miami. Duluth plays 4 of their remaining series agains top five (SC twice, Denver and UND) and then Miami. St Cloud (need to make up 2 games) also play 4 of their remaining agains top five (Denver, Western, and Duluth twice) and Omaha and CC. Plus 12 games in 28 days. Omaha, CC and Miami are not mathematically out of it, but they would have to step on the gas big time to improve their bottom 3 spots. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farce poobah Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, mattim said: Hopefully the NCHC will get 5 teams at the show, Omaha, CC or Miami would likely need to win the NCHC tourney to advance. So much to factor in with Olympic temporary departures and Covid, but I, like most of you, like our chances better now than a week ago: The remaining schedule favors UND To maintain a top 3 spot in the league. No game is easy but we play Duluth, Western (only 2 top five) and then Omaha twice(4 games) and CC. Denver plays 3 of their remaining series against the top five (SC, Western and Duluth) and then Omaha and CC. Western also plays 3 of their remaining against top five (SC, Denver and UND) and then CC and Miami. Duluth plays 4 of their remaining series agains top five (SC twice, Denver and UND) and then Miami. St Cloud (need to make up 2 games) also play 4 of their remaining agains top five (Denver, Western, and Duluth twice) and Omaha and CC. Plus 12 games in 28 days. Omaha, CC and Miami are not mathematically out of it, but they would have to step on the gas big time to improve their bottom 3 spots. This a year where finishing #1 or #2 really helps your odds of getting to St Paul. Finishing 4th gives you a real nightmare opponent. Omaha as the 6th best NCHC in the Pairwise is also a tough out. They have beaten some good teams already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiouxFan100 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just get in at this point 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sioux rube Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 hours ago, SiouxFan100 said: Just get in at this point Exactly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Godsmack Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 DU seems to be sitting pretty at this point. They didn’t lose anyone to the Olympics and while they have to face Duluth and St. Cloud in the coming weeks, both SCSU and UMD will be missing a few key players in those series. Plus, DU wraps up their schedule with 4 games against Omaha and CC, respectfully. I expect DU to win all 4 of those with relative ease. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattim Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 32 minutes ago, Godsmack said: DU seems to be sitting pretty at this point. They didn’t lose anyone to the Olympics and while they have to face Duluth and St. Cloud in the coming weeks, both SCSU and UMD will be missing a few key players in those series. Plus, DU wraps up their schedule with 4 games against Omaha and CC, respectfully. I expect DU to win all 4 of those with relative ease. I agree that DU is in the drivers seat. The Clowns (they still have plenty of firepower) are hurt more by the Olympics than the Dogs, and playing either team is more difficult than playing Miami, CC or Opieha. Miami (I watched part of their games last weekend waiting for the Sioux) gave DU a battle and came within a whisker of stealing game one! You failed to mention Western who has the skill and ability to sweep DU, I may be wrong but I think that series is at the ZOO. No question about it, DU should win the first seed in the NCHC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcblues Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Way too early. Especially this year! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farce poobah Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Denver has to go to Western. Tough place to play, and Western is a tough matchup for Denver. If Western were to sweep that series, those two are basically even. I'm staggered by the possibility that the first round NCHC series might include national #5 St Cloud vs #9 UMD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sioux>Bison Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Any chance UND gets placed in Loveland? Would love a short drive for some Sioux hockey! does UND make it there as the #4 NCHC team? Do they need to be a bottom pairwise team and Denver to win the NCHC? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sicatoka Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 The NCAA avoids intra-conference first round matchups. If DU is the Loveland 1-seed, UND won't go there as a 4-seed. (If DU is the 1, UND would as a 3-seed, as second round intra-conference is allowed.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clark17 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 How I have it if today was the day: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farce poobah Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 7 hours ago, Clark17 said: How I have it if today was the day: So … it’s not that St Cloud is losing, they are tanking so they don’t get sent to Colorado. and … what’s the over/under on how many minutes of game time would be required for MSU vs Quinnipiac in the Albany Final? I’ll start the betting line at 110 minutes. First goal wins! maybe we could talk Western Michigan into tanking so they get that Michigan matchup we all want to see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post The Sicatoka Posted February 22, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted February 22, 2022 8 hours ago, farce poobah said: maybe we could talk Western Michigan into tanking so they get that Michigan matchup we all want to see. It'd be more fitting for WMU to be the two-seed in Michigan's regional. ->Ya gonna try to duck the second game of a four-team tournament again, Woofie? 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattim Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Predicting the final Brackets: Worcester: 1. Michigan v 16. AIC 8. U Mass V 9. Duluth Allentown: 2. Mankato v 15. U Conn 7. Western v 10. Michigan Tech. (UND will pick up points vs Western but not enough to become a #1 seed) Loveland: 3. Denver v 14. BU 5. Sioux v 11. Norte Dame Albany: 4. Gophers v 12. St Cloud 6. Quinn v 13. Ohio St. Not sure if i did this correct but had to move St. Cloud, Norte Dame and Ohio St around so that teams did not meet conference foe in the first game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bale31 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 15 hours ago, farce poobah said: So … it’s not that St Cloud is losing, they are tanking so they don’t get sent to Colorado. and … what’s the over/under on how many minutes of game time would be required for MSU vs Quinnipiac in the Albany Final? I’ll start the betting line at 110 minutes. First goal wins! maybe we could talk Western Michigan into tanking so they get that Michigan matchup we all want to see. You do realize MSU is the second highest scoring team in the country, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farce poobah Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, bale31 said: You do realize MSU is the second highest scoring team in the country, right? Yes, and they are playing the only team with a better Goals-Against per game than MSU has. Dryden McKay at 1.25 GAA is superb, and then I see Yaniv Perets at 0.85. (Granted MSU has played a much stronger schedule ... but still.) PS Congrats on the 5th straight conference title. Guys walking around with five rings is rare indeed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bale31 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, farce poobah said: Yes, and they are playing the only team with a better Goals-Against per game than MSU has. Dryden McKay at 1.25 GAA is superb, and then I see Yaniv Perets at 0.85. (Granted MSU has played a much stronger schedule ... but still.) PS Congrats on the 5th straight conference title. Guys walking around with five rings is rare indeed. Touche. Honestly, I'm gonna do to qu what everyone has historically done to msu. Qu has been awful against anyone that has been good and feasted on everyone else. I think they are going to end up getting beat up in the ncaas. If bemidji wouldn't have played out of their ass in the conference and awful against everyone else in 2017, it would have been 8 in a row. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sicatoka Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 QU's losses: UND, Cornell, Clarkson, Harvard <-- the UND and Cornell losses tell me what kind of game to play to beat QU MSU-M losses: SCSU, Michigan, Ferris State, Lake Superior State, NMU <-- the SCSU and Mich losses tell me you can out-offense if you have the horses Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farce poobah Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, bale31 said: Touche. Honestly, I'm gonna do to qu what everyone has historically done to msu. Qu has been awful against anyone that has been good and feasted on everyone else. I think they are going to end up getting beat up in the ncaas. If bemidji wouldn't have played out of their ass in the conference and awful against everyone else in 2017, it would have been 8 in a row. I think all the #1 seeds (and #3 seeds) would love to see Quinnipiac in their bracket instead of MSU or the other top teams out west. The only challenge is getting goal #1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxnatty#8 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 6:25 PM, Godsmack said: DU seems to be sitting pretty at this point. They didn’t lose anyone to the Olympics and while they have to face Duluth and St. Cloud in the coming weeks, both SCSU and UMD will be missing a few key players in those series. Plus, DU wraps up their schedule with 4 games against Omaha and CC, respectfully. I expect DU to win all 4 of those with relative ease. I could see Denver split with Omaha if Omaha can limit trips to the penalty box and get Denver frustrated into taking penalties. Starman says Denver has the best D corps in league but I disagree and say we do. I will stay with my hunch that says Denver has peaked and teams are starting to figure out how to slow them down. Denver's could get swept at Omaha possibly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cberkas Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Omaha did just end a multi year loosing streak at home to St.Cloud. So it is possible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nashvegas Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Throwing my guesses into the mix. Going on straight 1-16 current pairwise make the tourney (Putting in AIC as Atlantic Hockey auto bid). Allentown 1. MN State 16. AIC 8. Quinny 9. SCSU Worcester 2. Michigan 15. UMass Lowell 7. Notre Dame 10. UMass Loveland 3. Denver 13. Ohio St 6. W Mich 11. UMD Albany 4. Minnesota 14. Northeastern 5. UND 12. Michigan Tech Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianvf Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Nashvegas said: Throwing my guesses into the mix. Going on straight 1-16 current pairwise make the tourney (Putting in AIC as Atlantic Hockey auto bid). Allentown 1. MN State 16. AIC 8. Quinny 9. SCSU Worcester 2. Michigan 15. UMass Lowell 7. Notre Dame 10. UMass Loveland 3. Denver 13. Ohio St 6. W Mich 11. UMD Albany 4. Minnesota 14. Northeastern 5. UND 12. Michigan Tech Couldn't have 6 vs 11 in round 1, as they are both NCHC teams. In that scenario, it'd be easy to flip 10/11 and put UMass vs WMU in Loveland and UMD vs ND in Worcester. Or flip 6/7 to keep two UMass schools in Worcester for attendance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nashvegas Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, brianvf said: Couldn't have 6 vs 11 in round 1, as they are both NCHC teams. In that scenario, it'd be easy to flip 10/11 and put UMass vs WMU in Loveland and UMD vs ND in Worcester. Or flip 6/7 to keep two UMass schools in Worcester for attendance. You can if a conference has (5) teams in the tourney. If less than 5 they avoid first round matchups as much as possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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