How are teams beating us ?

[Goon]

I know I have posted this before, but nine players from last season’s championship team (Drake Caggiula, Bryn Chyzyk, Coltyn Sanderson, Nick Schmaltz, Troy Stecher, Paul LaDue, Luke Johnson, and Keaton Thompson) are gone. That’s a lot of talent and experience that’s no longer playing with the Hawks. Moreover, three of those players (Caggiula, Schmaltz and Stecher) are currently playing in the NHL. Also, another one, Paul LaDue is on the cusp of making his NHL debut with the Los Angeles Kings. (linky)

[siouxforce19]

3 hours ago, Goon said:

I know I have posted this before, but nine players from last season’s championship team (Drake Caggiula, Bryn Chyzyk, Coltyn Sanderson, Nick Schmaltz, Troy Stecher, Paul LaDue, Luke Johnson, and Keaton Thompson) are gone. That’s a lot of talent and experience that’s no longer playing with the Hawks. Moreover, three of those players (Caggiula, Schmaltz and Stecher) are currently playing in the NHL. Also, another one, Paul LaDue is on the cusp of making his NHL debut with the Los Angeles Kings. (linky)

If I had a dollar every time someone told me something I already know... 

[Goon]

Just now, siouxforce19 said:

If I had a dollar every time someone told me something I already know... 

Alright, I owe you buck.  

[SiouxForever]

How about the opposing team is scoring more goals than us? Let's just keep it simple. 

[yzerman19]

Someone with some time on their hands:

compare last season ytd with this season ytd on goals for and goals against.  This will tell us if it is an offensive or defensive let down...

[scpa0305]

On 11/29/2016 at 11:54 AM, fightingsioux4life said:

Schlossman wrote an article on this topic today in the Heraldo:

http://www.grandforksherald.com/sports/und-hockey/4168345-commentary-offense-not-goaltending-what-could-use-jolt

A key passage:
 

Despite what the "If only we had Belfour" crowd would have you believe, Cam Johnson is NOT the biggest problem with the team right now. Not even close.

I saw that article....if you back out the SCSU weekend how does his numbers look in November?  The good thing about statistics is that you can slice and dice them and throw out the outliers.  And I honestly haven't checked.

 

Edit:  So I checked.....excluding the SCSU games, Cam's save % is 88.28% so far in November.  6 total games (MN, Denver, and MSU).

[fightingsioux4life]

1 hour ago, scpa0305 said:

I saw that article....if you back out the SCSU weekend how does his numbers look in November?  The good thing about statistics is that you can slice and dice them and throw out the outliers.  And I honestly haven't checked.

Edit:  So I checked.....excluding the SCSU games, Cam's save % is 88.28% so far in November.  6 total games (MN, Denver, and MSU).

One thing that is tough to measure is how many of our goals against are the result of sloppy d-zone play vs sloppy goaltending. You can give up 17 shots on goal, but if there are 3 defensive break downs that result in goals, that will skew the save percentage considerably.

[siouxforcefans]

22 minutes ago, fightingsioux4life said:

One thing that is tough to measure is how many of our goals against are the result of sloppy d-zone play vs sloppy goaltending. You can give up 17 shots on goal, but if there are 3 defensive break downs that result in goals, that will skew the save percentage considerably.

Agreed.  Plus, if you throw out the best, you have to throw out the worst, right?  Otherwise you're doing nothing but skewing a body of work to fit a narrative.

[cberkas]

2 hours ago, scpa0305 said:

I saw that article....if you back out the SCSU weekend how does his numbers look in November?  The good thing about statistics is that you can slice and dice them and throw out the outliers.  And I honestly haven't checked.

 

Edit:  So I checked.....excluding the SCSU games, Cam's save % is 88.28% so far in November.  6 total games (MN, Denver, and MSU).

It was at .8xx and his goals against was at 3.xx if I remember right and then he shut out St. Cloud back to back nights.

Right now Cam is not in the top 30 in the nation is SV% and there are 3 in the NCHC in the top 30 in SV% (Jaillet, Larkin, and Miska).

[yzerman19]

And GAA and save % are locations statistically, they do not talk variation.  

Take 4 games with 25 shots on goal per.  In all 4 games you give up 2 goals.  That's a .920 save percentage and 2.00 GAA, and you have an excellent chance at winning all 4 games.  No variation +/- 0

same scenario, but you pitch 2 shutouts and give up 4 goals in the other 2.  Same .920 save % and 2.00 GAA, but you likely go 2-2.  Variation is significant +/- 4

our scoring defense challenge is not averages, it's variation.  It can also be said that the shutouts were exceptions, because Cam stood on his head.

[Cratter]

21 minutes ago, yzerman19 said:

And GAA and save % are locations statistically, they do not talk variation.  

Take 4 games with 25 shots on goal per.  In all 4 games you give up 2 goals.  That's a .920 save percentage and 2.00 GAA, and you have an excellent chance at winning all 4 games.  No variation +/- 0

same scenario, but you pitch 2 shutouts and give up 4 goals in the other 2.  Same .920 save % and 2.00 GAA, but you likely go 2-2.  Variation is significant +/- 4

our scoring defense challenge is not averages, it's variation.  It can also be said that the shutouts were exceptions, because Cam stood on his head.

Coaches always praise consistency out of their goaltenders.

The variation scenario will bounce you out of the playoff pretty quick.

[ksl_sioux4ever]

Last year from start to end if November stats:

13-2-2

SOG us - 590 them - 391 sav%.900 

Us 63 goals them 36

In Nov stats:

6-2-0

SOG us - 231 them - 209 sav%.883

Us 26 goals them 20

 

[burd]

This isn't a Hak/Berry comment but an observation about people in all areas of life and work. None of us excels at every phase of the game.  While I think Berry may have pulled off a championship last year that Hak might not have, not because he's a better coach overall but because it looks like he has a way of diffusing tension at the right time.   At the same time, Hak was unbelievably good at getting just about any roster to come around to being very good.   Maybe the best the school has ever had int that respect.  Berry is dealing with less talent this year, and it's hard to replace both an elite defensive corps and an elite scoring line and be the third youngest team in the country (that may be wrong).   I think he will still get the boys to the tourney, but nobody should be surprised they are struggling.   One difficulty they face now is that they will not be playing as many teams high in the pw and will have a harder time staying inside the bubble.   That's all they have to do, though--stay inside the bubble.   I don't think it's Cam.  It's across the board.   But there is still time. 

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

3 hours ago, burd said:

This isn't a Hak/Berry comment but an observation about people in all areas of life and work. None of us excels at every phase of the game.  While I think Berry may have pulled off a championship last year that Hak might not have, not because he's a better coach overall but because it looks like he has a way of diffusing tension at the right time.   At the same time, Hak was unbelievably good at getting just about any roster to come around to being very good.   Maybe the best the school has ever had int that respect.  Berry is dealing with less talent this year, and it's hard to replace both an elite defensive corps and an elite scoring line and be the third youngest team in the country (that may be wrong).   I think he will still get the boys to the tourney, but nobody should be surprised they are struggling.   One difficulty they face now is that they will not be playing as many teams high in the pw and will have a harder time staying inside the bubble.   That's all they have to do, though--stay inside the bubble.   I don't think it's Cam.  It's across the board.   But there is still time. 

Thank God we still have SCSU and UMD at home, could really boost our PWR with those series

[iluvdebbies]

#gettofargo

[iluvdebbies]

5 minutes ago, InHeavenThereIsNoBeer said:

Thank God we still have SCSU and UMD at home, could really boost our PWR with those series

.....and Western Michigan

[Fetch]

12 minutes ago, InHeavenThereIsNoBeer said:

Thank God we still have SCSU and UMD at home, could really boost our PWR with those series

But we have to improve & hope they don't 

[scpa0305]

16 hours ago, fightingsioux4life said:

One thing that is tough to measure is how many of our goals against are the result of sloppy d-zone play vs sloppy goaltending. You can give up 17 shots on goal, but if there are 3 defensive break downs that result in goals, that will skew the save percentage considerably.

Exactly, I totally agree.  I don't think Cam should lose his role or anything...I was just looking into the numbers a bit.  To your point though, if a team has 3 (really) bad d breakdowns you hope your tendy can pick some of those up.  Against MSU Cam really didn't.  Against SCSU, Cam had a ton of perimeter shots however he made some nice saves as well.  Denver was a weird series, I don't remember too many big goalie saves, just some really tight hockey.  Against MN, Cam got peppered Friday night but he really didn't steal anything either.  Saturday night he really wasn't forced to play well either.  All in all, Cam's been very average this year, but there's nothing really Berry can do now.  Cam has the track record of being a pretty good goalie and our backups haven't seen any minutes.  The fact Hyrnkiw is listed as backup every game pretty much says that Cam is going wire to wire this year (barring injury).  Tomek hasn't played a real game since 2014....you cant throw him in against a good team.  If they were planning on playing him they would have let him have a game against Canisius, RPI, or MSU.  It's Cam's net this year.  

[scpa0305]

14 hours ago, burd said:

This isn't a Hak/Berry comment but an observation about people in all areas of life and work. None of us excels at every phase of the game.  While I think Berry may have pulled off a championship last year that Hak might not have, not because he's a better coach overall but because it looks like he has a way of diffusing tension at the right time.   At the same time, Hak was unbelievably good at getting just about any roster to come around to being very good.   Maybe the best the school has ever had int that respect.  Berry is dealing with less talent this year, and it's hard to replace both an elite defensive corps and an elite scoring line and be the third youngest team in the country (that may be wrong).   I think he will still get the boys to the tourney, but nobody should be surprised they are struggling.   One difficulty they face now is that they will not be playing as many teams high in the pw and will have a harder time staying inside the bubble.   That's all they have to do, though--stay inside the bubble.   I don't think it's Cam.  It's across the board.   But there is still time. 

You are correct but last year's team was absolutely jacked up.  A lot of coaches would have won a natty with last year's team.  UND has had some bad luck in the past but consistently pushing out teams that have a pretty good chance at winning a natty.  This year's team is really no different.  There is a ton of talent on this year's team (draft picks, high offensive point getters/goal scorers at the USHL level).  For example, I thought Mason Appleton was really good last weekend.  He was 5th on his USHL team in scoring two years ago....Wilkie was first.  Berry has assembled a pretty good team this year, they are having trouble putting it all together though.  Our D is more top heavy this year but should still be relatively solid.  Those freshmen D weren't drafted but they are some solid overagers that played good stay at home D in the USHL (a very very good league), so they should be fine playing a 5-6 role. I'm still pretty optimistic about this year's team, because I know the talent they have on paper.  They need to start figuring it out pretty soon though.  

[Siouxperfan7]

Probably not the main reason that the team is struggling, but the guy brings up some good points.  #EmbraceHawks

http://www.grandforksherald.com/opinion/letters/4170193-letter-hockey-teams-turnaround-starts-fighting-hawks

 

[scpa0305]

7 minutes ago, Siouxperfan7 said:

Probably not the main reason that the team is struggling, but the guy brings up some good points.  #EmbraceHawks

http://www.grandforksherald.com/opinion/letters/4170193-letter-hockey-teams-turnaround-starts-fighting-hawks

 

Ha ha, come on.  You honestly think the fact he mentioned the Sioux name is the reason they're in a hole?  They are coming off a national title in the top NCAA division for their particular sport. Let's see what happens to the VB team against minny. 

[stoneySIOUX]

19 minutes ago, Siouxperfan7 said:

Probably not the main reason that the team is struggling, but the guy brings up some good points.  #EmbraceHawks

http://www.grandforksherald.com/opinion/letters/4170193-letter-hockey-teams-turnaround-starts-fighting-hawks

 

Good points? And those would be? I see zero. 

Embracing a logo/name has ZERO effect on us losing the types of players we lost from a national championship. It also has ZERO effect on us having 19 underclassmen. 

This guys is completely ignoring that two things:

1) We won a FRICKIN' national championship as the Hawks last year

2) Outside of a few exceptions, we traditionally start slow since, you know, we tend to have a lot of young players.

UGH.

[Siouxperfan7]

4 minutes ago, stoneySIOUX said:

Good points? And those would be? I see zero. 

Embracing a logo/name has ZERO effect on us losing the types of players we lost from a national championship. It also has ZERO effect on us having 19 underclassmen. 

This guys is completely ignoring that two things:

1) We won a FRICKIN' national championship as the Hawks last year

2) Outside of a few exceptions, we traditionally start slow since, you know, we tend to have a lot of young players.

UGH.

Probably the wrong thread to post the link into.  I have said that is is not the main reason for their struggles.  Obviously losing players and playing with underclassman plays a much bigger role.  That along with a tough schedule to start the season are obviously bigger factors.  

The points he brings up about the team lacking an identity is valid.  Players/coaches.fans referring to the team as the Sioux wearing a jersey that only says North Dakota when your name is officially the Fighting Hawks does cause a bit of an identity crisis.  Of course some aspects are unavoidable (jerseys).  But the fact that the hockey team and its die hard "hockey only" fans are the most resistant to embracing the Fighting Hawks name and logo isn't going unnoticed.  

[Oxbow6]

Just get to Fargo. I have my own bed to sleep in and 6 tickets!

[stoneySIOUX]

5 minutes ago, Siouxperfan7 said:

Probably the wrong thread to post the link into.  I have said that is is not the main reason for their struggles.  Obviously losing players and playing with underclassman plays a much bigger role.  That along with a tough schedule to start the season are obviously bigger factors.  

The points he brings up about the team lacking an identity is valid.  Players/coaches.fans referring to the team as the Sioux wearing a jersey that only says North Dakota when your name is officially the Fighting Hawks does cause a bit of an identity crisis.  Of course some aspects are unavoidable (jerseys).  But the fact that the hockey team and its die hard "hockey only" fans are the most resistant to embracing the Fighting Hawks name and logo isn't going unnoticed.  

Whether it's being noticed or not, it makes zero difference to this team's identity. They are a young team that is still 100% growing. The point of that guy's letter was that this team isn't succeeding because of them not embracing the Hawks name, fully and that is absolutely nonsense.