Pairwise 2018-19

[BarnWinterSportsEngelstad]

It's MARCH. Yesterday morning -14, today -16, still -11(-35 windchill) in GF. Pairwise were're at 20. Anybody have anything positive to say? 

 

 

Could be worse?
Lake Ontario Beach House Encase in 4' of Ice. A house in Pulaski, New York, is completely encased in ice after strong winds and waves sprayed the beach-front home.

[yzerman19]

1 hour ago, GoalieMask said:

Big IF but does winning a game in St. Paul boost our standing in this hypothetical game?

follow the IFs here..if UND wins a first round series vs W Mich, it will likely draw St. Cloud — assuming Denver and Duluth survive. 

The Huskies are much better than us this year but in a one game situation (where UND has more to play for), anything is possible. Would a win over  #1 SCSU give us the at-large lift we need, especially if the chalk (favorites) win other conference tournaments? Could this be our .0001 opportunity?

So if by some miracle we run the table, the point is moot- we're in.  The scerario you suggest would be the RPI play, which is fluid, because it moves based on the outcome of virtually every game.  

We have 40 PWR wins...looks like 47 gets you to number 13, 46 to number 14. If the hockey Gods favor us, and the right teams win and lose and we sweep out then go 1-1 in St Paul, I see the possibility of getting to  45.  

[SIOUXELEVENS]

2 in a row is not happening right now, so five in a row may be impossible for this team.

[yzerman19]

Just splitting with Canisius and we'd have 42 maybe even 43 and be sitting 17/18 with more hope

[GoalieMask]

12 minutes ago, SIOUXELEVENS said:

2 in a row is not happening right now, so five in a row may be impossible for this team.

Totally get this...but if UND goes 1-1 next week, 2-1 the next, and 1-1 the week after they could still be in the hunt. 

Point being, if UND gets to St. Paul they are likely the only team playing with their season on the line.  Something to be said for that. 

[Oxbow6]

8 minutes ago, GoalieMask said:

Totally get this...but if UND goes 1-1 next week, 2-1 the next, and 1-1 the week after they could still be in the hunt. 

Point being, if UND gets to St. Paul they are likely the only team playing with their season on the line.  Something to be said for that. 

UND has been playing with their season on the line since the Canisius series. We have seen how that's played out to date.

[SIOUXELEVENS]

This team plays like they are in poker tournament and playing with house money, no cause for concern, not a care in the world.

if a senior captain can keep playing though he was responsible for 4 goals in the last three games for lack of discipline I don’t hold much hope that they can bear down and get it down.

[SiouxFan100]

We lost twice to Canisius

I think there is no way to undo that

 

[fsioux]

2 hours ago, SIOUXELEVENS said:

This team plays like they are in poker tournament and playing with house money, no cause for concern, not a care in the world.

if a senior captain can keep playing though he was responsible for 4 goals in the last three games for lack of discipline I don’t hold much hope that they can bear down and get it down.

I think the players and coaches all care.  That is not the issue.  As the season has gone on, more and more frustration sets in and as frustration mounts that is when stupid penalties occur and players make mistakes trying to do too much.  As much as we the fans are frustrated, I am sure the team is too.  That being said, having players out like Jones, Mismash and even JJ makes the tasks doubly hard as we are thin enough at the forward position.

[AJS]

Canisius was a huge blow, we all know that, but to me what's just as crushing is from a pairwise standpoint, this team had so many more opportunities. All things the same, if UND had won this past Friday against CC, they would be sitting at 15th instead of 20th. 

You never know what can take place on any given weekend, things can change quickly. 

[ChetSteadman]

14 hours ago, runaroundsioux said:

Did Duluth deserve a date last year?

Clearly.

[ChetSteadman]

14 hours ago, Blackheart said:

ASU has no business in the tourney...loading up on those cupcakes!

Speaking of cupcakes... Canisius and Huntsville at home next year.  Exciting stuff.  ASU is terrible and has no business being in the NCAA tournament.

[MafiaMan]

24 minutes ago, ChetSteadman said:

ASU is terrible and has no business being in the NCAA tournament.

Grumble about this all you like...they’ll be in.  Along with the Atlantic Hockey tournament chanpion, too.

[jk]

Don't look at the Pairwise, look at the RPI.  Since they tweaked the formula a few years ago, the Pairwise almost always ends up in the exact order of RPI.  Currently, the top 32 RPI teams are in exactly the same Pairwise spot, with one exception: RPI #19 UND and #20 Union are flipped in the Pairwise.  Looking at the RPI, with the understanding that it's going to wiggle around as teams win and lose, you can get a sense of how close you are to moving up or down.

Using this current Pairwise chart, which shows RPI and RPI rank in the fourth and fifth columns, you can see that UND is only 0.0030 from 15th.  That's pretty easy to make up.  However, the gap to 14th is another 0.0038, so that's a tougher nut.  To 13th takes another 0.0045, so another leap, and then to 12th is 0.0044 more.  To recap, it'll be pretty easy (with wins, the hard part), to get up near the bubble, but tougher to move up to safety after that.  I believe 12 was the last safe spot last year, and it's going to take a lot of wins to get there.

 

[ChetSteadman]

42 minutes ago, MafiaMan said:

Grumble about this all you like...they’ll be in.  Along with the Atlantic Hockey tournament chanpion, too.

Yeah, I’m aware, still doesn’t make them a good hockey team.

[MafiaMan]

4 minutes ago, ChetSteadman said:

Yeah, I’m aware, still doesn’t make them a good hockey team.

Well, they’re 21-12-1, so they’re doing something right.  They’ve killed the bottom-feeders — something North Dakota can’t seem to do.

[Wilbur]

Too many what if games this year.

-At home against BSU.

-Getting a Saturday night tie at home against Denver.

-Just winning one @ Canisius.

-Blowing lead @ Omaha in third period.

-Saturday's Rhett special against Duluth.

-This past Friday night game against CC.

I bet they'd almost be a lock at an at large.....

 

[yzerman19]

1 hour ago, jk said:

Don't look at the Pairwise, look at the RPI.  Since they tweaked the formula a few years ago, the Pairwise almost always ends up in the exact order of RPI.  Currently, the top 32 RPI teams are in exactly the same Pairwise spot, with one exception: RPI #19 UND and #20 Union are flipped in the Pairwise.  Looking at the RPI, with the understanding that it's going to wiggle around as teams win and lose, you can get a sense of how close you are to moving up or down.

Using this current Pairwise chart, which shows RPI and RPI rank in the fourth and fifth columns, you can see that UND is only 0.0030 from 15th.  That's pretty easy to make up.  However, the gap to 14th is another 0.0038, so that's a tougher nut.  To 13th takes another 0.0045, so another leap, and then to 12th is 0.0044 more.  To recap, it'll be pretty easy (with wins, the hard part), to get up near the bubble, but tougher to move up to safety after that.  I believe 12 was the last safe spot last year, and it's going to take a lot of wins to get there.

 

Exactly.  Its 113bps to Harvard...a miracle run without a conference title and we might find ourselves all the way up to 15 and praying for no upsets...

 

And...if we play Western in the first round, it will be both teams' seasons on the line, most likely.  

[jk]

Haha, I thought about trying to define bps (basis points) but decided against it.  Happy to see it. 

[MafiaMan]

2 hours ago, jk said:

Don't look at the Pairwise, look at the RPI.  Since they tweaked the formula a few years ago, the Pairwise almost always ends up in the exact order of RPI.  Currently, the top 32 RPI teams are in exactly the same Pairwise spot, with one exception: RPI #19 UND and #20 Union are flipped in the Pairwise.  Looking at the RPI, with the understanding that it's going to wiggle around as teams win and lose, you can get a sense of how close you are to moving up or down.

Using this current Pairwise chart, which shows RPI and RPI rank in the fourth and fifth columns, you can see that UND is only 0.0030 from 15th.  That's pretty easy to make up.  However, the gap to 14th is another 0.0038, so that's a tougher nut.  To 13th takes another 0.0045, so another leap, and then to 12th is 0.0044 more.  To recap, it'll be pretty easy (with wins, the hard part), to get up near the bubble, but tougher to move up to safety after that.  I believe 12 was the last safe spot last year, and it's going to take a lot of wins to get there.

[GoalieMask]

7 hours ago, Oxbow6 said:

UND has been playing with their season on the line since the Canisius series. We have seen how that's played out to date.

Touché 

[Wilbur]

1 hour ago, yzerman19 said:

Exactly.  Its 113bps to Harvard...a miracle run without a conference title and we might find ourselves all the way up to 15 and praying for no upsets...

 

And...if we play Western in the first round, it will be both teams' seasons on the line, most likely.  

If Western drops one at Miami then its loser out for sure at Lawson.  

Or if UND gets really really lucky it'll be loser out at the Ralph. 

[SiouxFan100]

I am interested in your thoughts about the Pairwise ranking system. No rankings are fail proof but the Pairwise seems to be pretty fair and accepted by college hockey fans and teams.

We seem to be about where we deserve to be in the rankings. Seems like your performance gets you up and down based on how you did.

 I would question how losing to a low ranked team seems to make it real hard to overcome. That said, you should be able to get in the top 12-13 every year.

[yzerman19]

4 hours ago, MafiaMan said:

NEEEEEEEERRRRRRRDDDDDDDDSSSSSSSSSSS

[yzerman19]

2 hours ago, SiouxFan100 said:

I am interested in your thoughts about the Pairwise ranking system. No rankings are fail proof but the Pairwise seems to be pretty fair and accepted by college hockey fans and teams.

We seem to be about where we deserve to be in the rankings. Seems like your performance gets you up and down based on how you did.

 I would question how losing to a low ranked team seems to make it real hard to overcome. That said, you should be able to get in the top 12-13 every year.

I actually really like it.  RPI is huge and should be the number one determinant, but I love that you can crush it with common opponents and head to head results.  It is a solid system.  Only negative is that winning percentage is still king in RPI, so your strength of schedule is somewhat discounted. All in all, it is fair.