Extremely Hypothetical: 7-5 = playoffs?

[UND-FB-FAN]

Teams are selected but in conferences that are not strong, the 4th best team does not tend to get in due a quality of wins factor.

Last week was week 10 of rankings. I think there are 1 or two that come out before the season starts.

Here is the simple way of looking at things: if UND runs the table and defeats #2 EWU (if they don't lose this weekend @NAU), they will be a top-20 ranked team that will thus get into the playoff field.

Depending how MSU and Montana finish the season, UND could even end up ahead of either MSU or Montana, despite losing the head-to-head. Of course, that's what a hypothetical 6 game winning streak would do.

[darell1976]

Two quick questions for you.

1.) Has the 7th best conference in the FCS, according to the Sagarin rankings, ever had 4 teams in the playoffs?

2.) Has a team that was unranked and not receiving a single vote, in either the coaches poll or Sports Network poll, as of Week 10, ever went on to then make the playoffs?

I would say no and no. Good thing it's just October 23rd and we still have 5 more games to play to increase our chance at a playoff shot.

[darell1976]

Final Standings:

 

UND 6-2  (win out)

EWU 6-2  (loss to NAU, UND)

MSU 6-2 (loss to CP, UM)

UM  6-2 (loss to CP, EWU)

CP 6-2 (loss to ISU, UC-D)

NAU 6-2 (loss to UND)

ISU 6-2 (loss to MSU)

 

Everyone else 3+ losses

 

How would that be for a finish.  Not that it would happen but mathematically its possible. 

[Matt]

Final Standings:

 

UND 6-2  (win out)

EWU 6-2  (loss to NAU, UND)

MSU 6-2 (loss to CP, UM)

UM  6-2 (loss to CP, EWU)

CP 6-2 (loss to ISU, UC-D)

NAU 6-2 (loss to UND)

ISU 6-2 (loss to MSU)

 

Everyone else 3+ losses

 

How would that be for a finish.  Not that it would happen but mathematically its possible. 

Let's hope that doesn't happen.  NAU-a team that lost to South Dakota-doing that well in conference doesn't impress.

[MafiaMan]

You do understand what 'Extremely Hypothetical' means in this case, correct? It's not like the topic is named 'Playoffs Here We Come!!'

You'll have to forgive 2011BisonAlumni for not understanding the word "hypothetical." Sesame Street and Grover just covered using "imagination" last Saturday. "Hypothetically speaking" is probably a few years away...

[stonebreaker]

Hypothetically speaking, if UND runs the table and finishes, 8-4, giving their win against EWU the most value, the Eagles win out except for the one loss, UND would also get the most value if Stony wins out, Mizzou St. Bears win out.  They would still miss the playoffs without a doubt.  Their bed has already would have been hypothetically been made, with the losses that can't be changed even in a hypothetical, no matter what the Bears do and the Griz and Bobcats will hurt either one or the other which hurts UND due to they already lost to both,  But it still would make for fun season to follow and look toward next year towards.  

[UND-FB-FAN]

Hypothetically speaking, if UND runs the table and finishes, 8-4, giving their win against EWU the most value, the Eagles win out except for the one loss, UND would also get the most value if Stony wins out, Mizzou St. Bears win out. They would still miss the playoffs without a doubt. Their bed has already would have been hypothetically been made, with the losses that can't be changed even in a hypothetical, no matter what the Bears do and the Griz and Bobcats will hurt either one or the other which hurts UND due to they already lost to both, But it still would make for fun season to follow and look toward next year towards.

Beating a #2 EWU club and finishing with 8 wins would draw a top-20 ranking. That would place UND into the playoff field; simple as that. UND would either be the 3rd or 4th BSC team in.

[stonebreaker]

BSC might get 3 but not 4 if that scenerio played out, and would have to find some polls and playoff bracket from the 24 team field from last year but I dont think all the top 20 teams made the field??

[JohnboyND7]

Beating a #2 EWU club and finishing with 8 wins would draw a top-20 ranking. That would place UND into the playoff field; simple as that. UND would either be the 3rd or 4th BSC team in.

And then get spanked by a Mo valley team I kid

[homer]

The MVFC is the best in the FCS.  They had a point in not getting teams in.  I don't agree that they should automatically get 4-5 teams in but if any other conference gets 4 then they should likely too unless a team has 5+ losses.  Big Sky is maybe 3rd best I'd say.

 

The MVFC may only finish with 3 teams with less than 5 losses.  And I'm not sure SDSU can afford to lose 2 more with one of their wins being vs. Oshgosh College.  Wouldn't be surprised to see 2 in from the MVFC after the season shakes out.  FU and Illinois St. 

[Matt]

The MVFC may only finish with 3 teams with less than 5 losses.  And I'm not sure SDSU can afford to lose 2 more with one of their wins being vs. Oshgosh College.  Wouldn't be surprised to see 2 in from the MVFC after the season shakes out.  FU and Illinois St. 

It doesn't look like if really matters anyway.  It appears there's the ac, and then everyone else again this year.

[UND1983]

Can we lock this baby up and send it to the dumpster?

[darell1976]

It was fun to talk about playoffs. Realistically I think we should try for .500 (6-6), and build from there.

[CMSioux]

After the Missouri game thoughts of going 1-11 briefly entered my mind. Cinderella stories seldom happen in sports - it's day by day, game by game. Winning the next play, the next series, the next quarter/half and hopefully game. I'm still going to enjoy this season for what it is.

[Oxbow6]

Can we lock this baby up and send it to the dumpster?

This.....^^^^^^^.

Throw the Kelly green glasses worn by many in as well.

The fact that this thread has this many posts on this topic is ridiculous. Optimism I get...drenched in lack of reality cause UND played the MT schools "close" but still lost I don't get.

Playoffs?............Playoffs???

[UND-FB-FAN]

It was fun to talk about playoffs. Realistically I think we should try for .500 (6-6), and build from there.

 

Agreed. As for playoffs, that goal now transfers over to the 2015 season. 

[UND-FB-FAN]

This.....^^^^^^^.

Throw the Kelly green glasses worn by many in as well.

The fact that this thread has this many posts on this topic is ridiculous. Optimism I get...drenched in lack of reality cause UND played the MT schools "close" but still lost I don't get.

Playoffs?............Playoffs???

 

Doesn't hurt to talk about playoffs while UND still had a "shot". Yes, it was a long-shot, but still a chance for a UND squad very few thought would win over 3 games. 

 

If UND finishes .500, then that's still a good season in that the team has improved and Bubba has the team in position to continue improving. 

[Sioux94]

My thoughts when this post was started was that we would lose to EWU, and then lose to one of the other teams.  I think this still holds out.......we don't pull out a win at EWU but we win the remaining three.   The NAU will be a nice win at home, we'll end the year with a road win and end up .500.  I had thoughts of us barely getting to 3 wins after the Missouri game as well.  Here is where the Bison trolls get to come in and give us crap about our low expectations, but the fact is it's a rebuilding year and if we end up .500 better than most would have thought.  It's back to day by day the rest of the year and learn from this loss and keep making progress.

[MIAMISIOUX]

2 THINGS:

 

1) everyone was excited about this team. tremendous improvement, good defense. We are happy with the progress. And yes, WE all had a glimpse of hope for the playoffs. We all wished and wanted it. Nothing wrong with that. That's why we are fans. We go 5-7 or 6-6, it's still a good year. We have a lot to look forward to. I'm happy with the strides we are making. Bubba came in and fixed his defense first. Now the offense is picking up. Guys we can look forward to a very competitive season next year. I'm happy.

 

2) About the NDSU fans. Follow your team, enjoy your season, and we will meet next year. Until then, much success.

[zonadub]

FCS Playoff picture getting interesting going into the final weekend...

Montana has 4 losses going into Bozeman. Would they be included in the playoffs if they lose to MSU? If they win, both MSU and the Grizzlies should be in the playoffs.

Idaho State has 4 losses (Utah, Utah State, Eastern Washington and Montana State) heading into Weber. The Bengals should make the playoffs with a win.

Northern Arizona now has 4 losses heading to Cedar City to take on Southern Utah. If all three of these teams win, would 5 Big Sky teams be invited to the. Playoffs? If not, who would be left out? (if the Grizzlies lose to MSU, they will probably not make it)

In the MVFC, Northern Iowa has 4 losses. They are playing Missouri State. South Dakota State plays South Dakota. Indiana State plays Western Illinois. The one With the toughest opponent next weekend is Youngstown State, who play NDSU. So the MVFC could have a 4 loss team left out of the playoffs as well.

If all the "favorites" win next weekend, Eastern Washington, Montana State, Idaho State and Northern Arizona would all have 4 losses or less on the season; and in the MVFC, the selection committee would have NDSU, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, SDSU, and Indiana State in the same situation. If Montana beats Montana State and/or Youngstown beats NDSU, add one to each conference. Guessing that a max of 4 from each conference gets playoff invites, there could be as many as 3 teams between these 2 conferences that watch the playoffs with 4 losses on the season.

UND still has a ways to go to join this group, but yesterday showed that Coach Schweigert has the team headed in the right direction. Even Rudolph's play calling didn't look so bad with short fields given to the offense by a great defense and Garman having the great game he had. Maybe a little too conservative with the lead and only 11 pass attempts, but it worked. They can finish this year anywhere from tied for 7th in the conference to tied for last (both would require Davis beating Sacramento), pending the outcome of the Northern Colorado game, which now feels very winnable.

[NDSU grad]

FCS Playoff picture getting interesting going into the final weekend...

Montana has 4 losses going into Bozeman. Would they be included in the playoffs if they lose to MSU? If they win, both MSU and the Grizzlies should be in the playoffs.

Idaho State has 4 losses (Utah, Utah State, Eastern Washington and Montana State) heading into Weber. The Bengals should make the playoffs with a win.

Northern Arizona now has 4 losses heading to Cedar City to take on Southern Utah. If all three of these teams win, would 5 Big Sky teams be invited to the. Playoffs? If not, who would be left out? (if the Grizzlies lose to MSU, they will probably not make it)

In the MVFC, Northern Iowa has 4 losses. They are playing Missouri State. South Dakota State plays South Dakota. Indiana State plays Western Illinois. The one With the toughest opponent next weekend is Youngstown State, who play NDSU. So the MVFC could have a 4 loss team left out of the playoffs as well.

If all the "favorites" win next weekend, Eastern Washington, Montana State, Idaho State and Northern Arizona would all have 4 losses or less on the season; and in the MVFC, the selection committee would have NDSU, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, SDSU, and Indiana State in the same situation. If Montana beats Montana State and/or Youngstown beats NDSU, add one to each conference. Guessing that a max of 4 from each conference gets playoff invites, there could be as many as 3 teams between these 2 conferences that watch the playoffs with 4 losses on the season.

UND still has a ways to go to join this group, but yesterday showed that Coach Schweigert has the team headed in the right direction. Even Rudolph's play calling didn't look so bad with short fields given to the offense by a great defense and Garman having the great game he had. Maybe a little too conservative with the lead and only 11 pass attempts, but it worked. They can finish this year anywhere from tied for 7th in the conference to tied for last (both would require Davis beating Sacramento), pending the outcome of the Northern Colorado game, which now feels very winnable.

Idaho State has two DII wins.  They're out.  Montana's out if they lose, both Montana and MSU are probably in if the Griz win.  Northern Arizona has some terrible losses this year.  It will be interesting to see what the committee does if it comes down to a 4 loss Valley team or NAU.

[Nodak78]

Best case scenario for big sky is Montana beating MSU this week. Then 3 from the big sky.  NAU is out thanks to UND.  Go job our first win over NAU.  I thought Rudolph did a great job of play calling.  30+ plus running plays.  We score 3 TD in 1st half. Took a lot of time off the clock with a 3 TD lead.  NAU won many games this year coming from behind.  Another series and they may have scored again.

 

By the way I didn't see a freshman QB leading the team.  He will be starting next year.  poise and more poise with studsrud. 

[geaux_sioux]

We can't forget that the d set the o up with some short fields.

[Nodak78]

The D did set up some short field position and also got a couple 3 and outs to give the offense a chance at the end of the game. 

[iramurphy]

Best case scenario for big sky is Montana beating MSU this week. Then 3 from the big sky.  NAU is out thanks to UND.  Go job our first win over NAU.  I thought Rudolph did a great job of play calling.  30+ plus running plays.  We score 3 TD in 1st half. Took a lot of time off the clock with a 3 TD lead.  NAU won many games this year coming from behind.  Another series and they may have scored again.

 

By the way I didn't see a freshman QB leading the team.  He will be starting next year.  poise and more poise with studsrud.

Studsrud has been a gamer. He hung in there yesterday against pressure and didn't turn the ball over. I think he has a chance to develop into a decent QB. He will start only if Mollberg isn't healthy and Bartels doesn't return. Give the kid some time to mature as a player. He was number 3 cuz he has a way to go yet. Oline will need to continue to improve before you see the real potential of any of these three guys. Bartels likely will come out of spring ball as starter because Mollberg may not be ready to participate in full contact. Mollberg's injury is an injury that takes at least 4-6 months to heal. That puts it into April and there would be no reason to risk injury late spring. Bartels, when healthy, had plenty of poise but also threw ball much better and has a lot more experience than Keaton. They may consider red shirting Studsrud if both Bartels and Mollberg return and are healthy.