krangodance Posted March 7, 2014 Posted March 7, 2014 At any rate...this thread is supposed to be about pwr so I digress. What do the 0, 1 and 2 loss pwr forecasts look like going into this weekend? Quote
farce poobah Posted March 9, 2014 Posted March 9, 2014 There's one other scenario where UND doesn't go to St Paul ... If St Cloud is a #2 seed and UND is a #3, they would probably put SCSU closer to home in St Paul, and send UND somewhere else. Quote
Frozen4sioux Posted March 9, 2014 Posted March 9, 2014 Straight bracket integrity would put und in elswhere (and away from umtc and BC) if they fall to 11-12-13-14. But that would mean integrity and NCAA would be associated with each other.....soooo Quote
AZSIOUX Posted March 11, 2014 Posted March 11, 2014 Just saw this tweet. not surprising with potential opponents and their pairwise ranking besides SCSU @chranked: #10 #PWR @UNDMHockey highest ranked team with a chance of falling out of contention for at-large bid. Full story tomorrow. #collegehockey Quote
InHeavenThereIsNoBeer Posted March 11, 2014 Posted March 11, 2014 Just saw this tweet. not surprising with potential opponents and their pairwise ranking besides SCSU @chranked: #10 #PWR @UNDMHockey highest ranked team with a chance of falling out of contention for at-large bid. Full story tomorrow. #collegehockey Ugh, I don't want to hear about this. Let's just beat CC in 2 and be done with it. Quote
squirtcoach Posted March 11, 2014 Posted March 11, 2014 So if #9 Notre Dame is swept by BC (a somewhat higher probability outcome than a CC sweep) the Irish don't fall to 'bubble' status? Quote
AZSIOUX Posted March 11, 2014 Posted March 11, 2014 So if #9 Notre Dame is swept by BC (a somewhat higher probability outcome than a CC sweep) the Irish don't fall to 'bubble' status? Yes possibly maybe Way way more complicated than that though! I'm sure Jim will have a pairwise breakdown or it seems that twitter account will have some good info tomorrow. Quote
siouxforce19 Posted March 11, 2014 Posted March 11, 2014 Just saw this tweet. not surprising with potential opponents and their pairwise ranking besides SCSU @chranked: #10 #PWR @UNDMHockey highest ranked team with a chance of falling out of contention for at-large bid. Full story tomorrow. #collegehockey One of the CHN guys was on the Pipeline Show last night and he said basically are odds are up to 90% or higher of UND getting in. I'm not sure on the exact percentage. They ran a bunch of simulations and only found a few scenarios that would knock us out. A couple wins should get us in. Quote
jimdahl Posted March 12, 2014 Author Posted March 12, 2014 A fork in the road for UND's NCAA tournament chances It couldn't be simpler -- win this weekend puts UND above the bubble and hoping not to fall, lose this weekend puts UND below the bubble hoping for some luck. It's possible to win and then drop out (an immediate loss in the next round plus some bad luck), and it's possible to get eliminated this weekend and make it in. For info on other teams, see Final regular season PWR forecast (collegehockeyranked) Quote
Dave Berger Posted March 12, 2014 Posted March 12, 2014 Is there any difference in winning this first round series in three games vs. sweeping? Just curious, thanks! Dave Quote
jimdahl Posted March 12, 2014 Author Posted March 12, 2014 Is there any difference in winning this first round series in three games vs. sweeping? Just curious, thanks! Dave Yeah, the "win 2" curve includes both of those scenarios. If they were broken out independently, they'd look about as you expect -- the "win 2 of 2" would look pretty much like the left part of the existing curve, while the "win 2 of 3" would overlap a lot but fill in some of the gap between the "win 2" and "win 1". Back when I was just doing this for UND by hand I used to break those, but now that I've automated the whole thing for all teams I just haven't accounted for those best of threes yet, since it really only comes up one week a year. Quote
Oxbow6 Posted March 12, 2014 Posted March 12, 2014 CC is a bad team...their record is what it is. Zane and Rocco get snubbed for All-NCHC...'nuf said. UND sweeps...and in the words of the enlightened one (Goon) "Anything less is unexceptionable!!". Bubblicious this team won't be after Saturday. Quote
scpa0305 Posted March 12, 2014 Posted March 12, 2014 http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/03/12/one-week-out-and-the-no-3-seeds-pose-some-challenges/ Everyone of this guy's predictions has us either eith MN or BC....no matter what our PW ranking is. Anyone know why this is? I somewhat get MN as we are close and the NCAA may break even by that cash cow. Quote
InHeavenThereIsNoBeer Posted March 12, 2014 Posted March 12, 2014 http://www.uscho.com...ome-challenges/ Everyone of this guy's predictions has us either eith MN or BC....no matter what our PW ranking is. Anyone know why this is? I somewhat get MN as we are close and the NCAA may break even by that cash cow. I mean there is a 50% chance of us getting put in a regional with one of them. Pair that with the NCAA wanting to put us in St Paul for attendance and we no longer have the inter conference match up problem and I'd guess we will see a lot of the Gophers in regionals. Quote
GFG Posted March 13, 2014 Posted March 13, 2014 I'm almost 100% positive that it's going to come down to either UND or SCSU in the West Regional with Minnesota. Quote
siouxforce19 Posted March 13, 2014 Posted March 13, 2014 I'm almost 100% positive that it's going to come down to either UND or SCSU in the West Regional with Minnesota. Last time they had the choice between the 2 they put SCSU there and had crappy attendance. Minnesota didn't make the tourney though so it was Wisco and SCSU to try to draw fans. Quote
MafiaMan Posted March 13, 2014 Posted March 13, 2014 Last time they had the choice between the 2 they put SCSU there and had crappy attendance. Minnesota didn't make the tourney though so it was Wisco and SCSU to try to draw fans. Sat thru that one myself...5,000 fans...maybe. Quote
MafiaMan Posted March 13, 2014 Posted March 13, 2014 I'm almost 100% positive that it's going to come down to either UND or SCSU in the West Regional with Minnesota. Agreed. SCSU would be wise to try to win the NCHC post-season crown and grab a #1 seed in Cincy... Quote
CAS4127 Posted March 13, 2014 Posted March 13, 2014 Without labeling them as such, they're putting in the traditional record (e.g. each W, L, or T is 1 point) but the weighted win percentage (home wins/road losses worth .8, home losses/road wins worth 1.2). You can see the weighted records (along with lots of other info behind the calculations of the new RPI) on the RPI team details pages here: North Dakota RPI details Those are still works in progress, given all the changes. So, RPI and other power indicators apply in hockey, but not basketball?!?! Got it--thanks!! What a joke and a bunch of hypocrits!! St. Cloud State is better than UND in Hockey because they beat UND!! Quote
gfhockey Posted March 13, 2014 Posted March 13, 2014 So are the iund men's ball team better then ndsu men's team since we beat them Quote
CAS4127 Posted March 13, 2014 Posted March 13, 2014 So are the iund men's ball team better then ndsu men's team since we beat them That was my point. You have some or most posters here taking the position the UND's MBB is better than NDSU's because UND beat us head-to-head. Then as the season progresses and NDSU clearly becomes the better team (RPI and other rankings) and the Summit League is clearly rated ahead of the BSC, most UND fans say RPI and power rankings don't matter. We beat you head-to-head so that doesn't matter, and conference power rankings don't take into consideration the "eye" test or silly things like that. That's why I say St. Cloud State is better than UND in hockey--using UND logic to get there!! What's good for the goose is good for the gander, and, in this case, I'll go with that!! Quote
InHeavenThereIsNoBeer Posted March 13, 2014 Posted March 13, 2014 That was my point. You have some or most posters here taking the position the UND's MBB is better than NDSU's because UND beat us head-to-head. Then as the season progresses and NDSU clearly becomes the better team (RPI and other rankings) and the Summit League is clearly rated ahead of the BSC, most UND fans say RPI and power rankings don't matter. We beat you head-to-head so that doesn't matter, and conference power rankings don't take into consideration the "eye" test or silly things like that. That's why I say St. Cloud State is better than UND in hockey--using UND logic to get there!! What's good for the goose is good for the gander, and, in this case, I'll go with that!! So this is a hockey message board... you must be lost. Quote
keikla Posted March 13, 2014 Posted March 13, 2014 That was my point. You have some or most posters here taking the position the UND's MBB is better than NDSU's because UND beat us head-to-head. Then as the season progresses and NDSU clearly becomes the better team (RPI and other rankings) and the Summit League is clearly rated ahead of the BSC, most UND fans say RPI and power rankings don't matter. We beat you head-to-head so that doesn't matter, and conference power rankings don't take into consideration the "eye" test or silly things like that. That's why I say St. Cloud State is better than UND in hockey--using UND logic to get there!! What's good for the goose is good for the gander, and, in this case, I'll go with that!! Except the cases aren't comparable because, not only is SCSU higher in the pairwise and RPI, but they also beat us head-to-head (3-1). I didn't see anyone here saying that the Sioux are better than the Huskies because of either of those components. We may think we'd beat them in the tourney, but that factors in that anything can happen in a one-and-done situation. Quote
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