wasmania Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 17 minutes ago, Nodak78 said: https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/the-pandemic-where-we-stand-now.php the above is laughable. his argument centers around a graph of the current U.S. covid deaths to date vs U.S. and global annual flu deaths. His prediction from this (April 10th) is 33000 deaths in U.S. a number we are already passed. So this what you get from an anecdotal forecast by a partisan blogger. Egregiously wrong in the other direction. Perhaps the willingness to accept malice as a reason for scientific error is because you are so used to it from the unscientific partisan ranters that take up space in your head. 'If my guys do it, everyone must!' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nodak78 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, wasmania said: the above is laughable. his argument centers around a graph of the current U.S. covid deaths to date vs U.S. and global annual flu deaths. His prediction from this (April 10th) is 33000 deaths in U.S. a number we are already passed. So this what you get from an anecdotal forecast by a partisan blogger. Egregiously wrong in the other direction. Perhaps the willingness to accept malice as a reason for scientific error is because you are so used to it from the unscientific partisan ranters that take up space in your head. 'If my guys do it, everyone must!' That was not a model. Static number. ONE POINT in TIME. heck your mensa score it is regressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yzerman19 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 I still stand by deaths as a bad measure in terms of this virus. It is a lagging indicator. Also, unlike the historical measure of pandemics (which kill indiscriminately and kill kids), it is killing the old and sick at a highly disproportionate rate. This group is especially vulnerable to any pathogen. I see a nobel laureate physician from HIV research is now calling it man-made. That in an effort to find a cure for HIV, the bug was engineered and accidentally got out of the Wuhan biolab. This was mocked in the beginning and discounted as fake news. Now its getting attention again from a non-partisan researcher. This theory would also lend to the rationale behind all of the lockdowns...if there was intel that this thing was man-made, we had to go to extremes, because we didn't know the heck it would do...a group of Indian researchers also determined it was man-made and they were blacklisted until they renegged...we might never know the truth. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasmania Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Nodak78 said: That was not a model. Static number. ONE POINT in TIME. heck your mensa score it is regressing. sorry, he made it a model when he took the current death rate and multiplied by 2 with the assumption that the U.S. is half way through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yzerman19 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, wasmania said: sorry, he made it a model when he took the current death rate and multiplied by 2 with the assumption that the U.S. is half way through. multiplying by 2 on a trailing indicator...not the right approach... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasmania Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, yzerman19 said: I still stand by deaths as a bad measure in terms of this virus. It is a lagging indicator. Also, unlike the historical measure of pandemics (which kill indiscriminately and kill kids), it is killing the old and sick at a highly disproportionate rate. This group is especially vulnerable to any pathogen. I see a nobel laureate physician from HIV research is now calling it man-made. That in an effort to find a cure for HIV, the bug was engineered and accidentally got out of the Wuhan biolab. This was mocked in the beginning and discounted as fake news. Now its getting attention again from a non-partisan researcher. This theory would also lend to the rationale behind all of the lockdowns...if there was intel that this thing was man-made, we had to go to extremes, because we didn't know the heck it would do...a group of Indian researchers also determined it was man-made and they were blacklisted until they renegged...we might never know the truth. this may end up being true. So a geopolitical conspiracy to hide this unfortunate event might be happening. That is different from a partisan conspiracy to inflate the danger to make you lose your job and the president lose the election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cratter Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Allowing alcohol sales right now is killing people. Alcohol weakens the immune system which causes people to catch the Rona easier. If we could enforce people to sleep a min of 8 hours a day we could save more lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redneksioux Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, Cratter said: Allowing alcohol sales right now is killing people. Alcohol weakens the immune system which causes people to catch the Rona easier. If we could enforce people to sleep a min of 8 hours a day we could save more lives. Sure alcohol is killing people. But if you decide to sit in your house and drink, have at it, it's your life. If you drink and decide to drive, this is against the law, as this puts other lives in danger. If you drink and decide to assault someone, same thing, you've put others' lives in danger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yzerman19 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, Cratter said: Allowing alcohol sales right now is killing people. Alcohol weakens the immune system which causes people to catch the Rona easier. If we could enforce people to sleep a min of 8 hours a day we could save more lives. I think in my case, alcohol is saving lives!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWSiouxMN Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 Worthington, MN is going to be a news story for the next few days. Suspected outbreak down there. Similar situation to Sioux Falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UND1983 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 52 minutes ago, wasmania said: this may end up being true. So a geopolitical conspiracy to hide this unfortunate event might be happening. That is different from a partisan conspiracy to inflate the danger to make you lose your job and the president lose the election. Do you feel that politics are a part of the narratives that are being orchestrated by the major media outlets? Or it strictly how they see things happening? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasmania Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 hour ago, UND1983 said: Do you feel that politics are a part of the narratives that are being orchestrated by the major media outlets? Or it strictly how they see things happening? there are partisan slants unfortunately, some that are partisan and accurate and others that are bullsh$t. But as individuals with a common purpose (that is what we are despite the division sown by politicians and media) we should be trying to get past the rhetoric to get to the truth, rather than be pushed by our favorite pundit into irrational and harmful fighting amongst ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cratter Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 2 hours ago, Redneksioux said: Sure alcohol is killing people. But if you decide to sit in your house and drink, have at it, it's your life. If you drink and decide to drive, this is against the law, as this puts other lives in danger. If you drink and decide to assault someone, same thing, you've put others' lives in danger. Didn't mention anything about driving. If alcohol sales are banned we can save lives from coronavirus. We need every to be in top immune shape. This means no booze during the outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNDlaw80 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 On 4/16/2020 at 12:13 AM, Cratter said: Can you imagine how high the deaths from H1N1 would have been had they counted the deaths the same way they are starting to for the coronavirus. Riiiight. The CDC's H1N1 estimates were meant to provide a sense of scale. The CDC doesn't hide this fact. After April 2009, laboratory data was collected from 62 counties (13 metropolitan areas of 10 states) then extrapolated to the entire U.S. population and then corrected for under-reporting using a multiplier from a previous estimate. At the high-point of the virus (april-nov), total accumulative laboratory recorded deaths equaled 3,900 nation-wide. The CDC's final estimate totals are exponentially higher, for clear and obvious reasons. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html Any other conspiracy theories you need debunking? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nodak78 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 IHME. Is hitting the bong now. ND deaths by August 4. = 149. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/north-dakota MN deaths by August 4 = 195. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/minnesota IA deaths by August 4 = 624. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/iowa SD deaths by August 4 = 94. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/south-dakota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dynato Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Nodak78 said: IHME. Is hitting the bong now. ND deaths by August 4. = 149. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/north-dakota MN deaths by August 4 = 195. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/minnesota IA deaths by August 4 = 624. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/iowa SD deaths by August 4 = 94. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/south-dakota. It is almost as if social distancing, ie limiting people to people contact, somehow has an impact on how a virus spreads through a population. IDK yet though, more people need to die before I'm convinced of this absurd idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrEdway Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 3 hours ago, SWSiouxMN said: Worthington, MN is going to be a news story for the next few days. Suspected outbreak down there. Similar situation to Sioux Falls And in Colorado. Meat soon to be as scarce as toilet paper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nodak78 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 25 minutes ago, dynato said: It is almost as if social distancing, ie limiting people to people contact, somehow has an impact on how a virus spreads through a population. IDK yet though, more people need to die before I'm convinced of this absurd idea. ND 2 of 6. Social distance Total of 9 deaths. Total cases. 439 MN 4 of 6. Social distance total deaths 111. Total cases. 2,071 The model is $%#!(&*#. Like I said before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNDlaw80 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 3 hours ago, UND1983 said: Do you feel that politics are a part of the narratives that are being orchestrated by the major media outlets? Or it strictly how they see things happening? 1 hour ago, wasmania said: there are partisan slants unfortunately, some that are partisan and accurate and others that are bullsh$t. But as individuals with a common purpose (that is what we are despite the division sown by politicians and media) we should be trying to get past the rhetoric to get to the truth, rather than be pushed by our favorite pundit into irrational and harmful fighting amongst ourselves. Punditry is more of a symptom of the bigger problem nowadays,....those we vote into office. We as citizens, with a common purpose, should be trying to get past the divisive rhetoric our government (on all all levels) is espousing. Vitriol and discordance is being implemented top-down more than ever. Truth and reason is trampled upon in favor of loyalty to a 'team'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cratter Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 58 minutes ago, UNDlaw80 said: Riiiight. The CDC's H1N1 estimates were meant to provide a sense of scale. The CDC's doesn't hide this fact. After April 2009, laboratory data was collected from 62 counties (13 metropolitan areas of 10 states) then extrapolated to the entire U.S. population and then corrected for under-reporting using a multiplier from a previous estimate. At the high-point of the virus (april-nov), total accumulative laboratory recorded deaths equaled 3,900 nation-wide. The CDC's final estimate totals are exponentially higher, for clear and obvious reasons. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html Any other conspiracy theories you need debunking? When they go back and do the research on coronavirus like italy just did the total death count from coronavirus will probably be lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UND1983 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 41 minutes ago, dynato said: It is almost as if social distancing, ie limiting people to people contact, somehow has an impact on how a virus spreads through a population. IDK yet though, more people need to die before I'm convinced of this absurd idea. How long to do we keep implementing it do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cratter Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 48 minutes ago, Nodak78 said: IHME. Is hitting the bong now. ND deaths by August 4. = 149. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/north-dakota MN deaths by August 4 = 195. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/minnesota IA deaths by August 4 = 624. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/iowa SD deaths by August 4 = 94. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/south-dakota. Up down up down up down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nodak78 Posted April 17, 2020 Share Posted April 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Cratter said: Up down up down up down. More data. they need to keep twisting variable until it fits the model. Or the person doing model must be on a 3 day drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dynato Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 10 minutes ago, Cratter said: When they go back and do the research on coronavirus like italy just did the total death count from coronavirus will probably be lower. New York lost 1000 people to COVID today. They have lost 15,000 people in the past fourteen days. They are trending towards losing 30k/month until this settles down. IHME projects them to be at about 20k deaths total. New York typically faces 13k deaths a month in non-pandemic years. These are real people dying, significantly above and beyond what is normally experienced. They are not making people up and killing them off to inflate data. The death count is the death count. However, the combined mortality rate being experienced will absolutely be lower in the long run. NY data pulled from the CDC: https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/datarequest/D76;jsessionid=0AA6FAD8D8CDC84E9029CC4B98BC9373 9 minutes ago, UND1983 said: How long to do we keep implementing it do you think? Was my answer about more people needing to die before I'm convinced not clear enough? On a serious note, I already proposed my action plan for ND. It surprisingly got crickets as a response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasmania Posted April 18, 2020 Share Posted April 18, 2020 21 minutes ago, Nodak78 said: More data. they need to keep twisting variable until it fits the model. Or the person doing model must be on a 3 day drunk. ok lets just put you in the bucket of people not looking for the truth, only a win for your 'team'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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