Pairwise 2018-19

[SJHovey]

5 hours ago, MafiaMan said:

Cool story, bro.  I give North Dakota less than a .0001% chance of making THIS year’s tournament, though.

10,000 to 1? Put me down for a $1 on UND.

[Siouxphan27]

This thread should be renamed the Pear-shaped Rankings. 

[Rebel_Sioux]

Ugh. So back down to 20. We need to make up 7 or 8 spots in the pairwise or win the tournament. I'm an optimist but the light at the end of the tunnel is looking like a small flickering candle with a blizzard on the horizon 

[runaroundsioux]

Can someone explain to me how #8 ASU loses two to #22 Minnesota and stays at #8? And Minnesota only moves up one to #21? Jim Dahl?

[Cratter]

3 minutes ago, runaroundsioux said:

Can someone explain to me how #8 ASU loses two to #22 Minnesota and stays at #8? And Minnesota only moves up one to #21? Jim Dahl?

It's the second to last week of the regular season.

[SiouxVolley]

12 minutes ago, runaroundsioux said:

Can someone explain to me how #8 ASU loses two to #22 Minnesota and stays at #8? And Minnesota only moves up one to #21? Jim Dahl?

It’s really difficult to far much unless the victorious team is a pairwise bottom feeder like Canisius.

[runaroundsioux]

9 minutes ago, Cratter said:

It's the second to last week of the regular season.

I realize that. It's the last week for ASU. We dropped 2 spots last night losing 1 to CC, 12 spots below us. Mn was 14 below ASU.

 

 

[yzerman19]

Only guarantee is to possibly flip a H2H, which can have you steal a pwr win against that team.  RPI won't move much, likely COP won't move you much unless it's vs s conference opponent

[Cratter]

6 minutes ago, runaroundsioux said:

I realize that. It's the last week for ASU. We dropped 2 spots last night losing 1 to CC, 12 spots below us. Mn was 14 below ASU.

12 spots....14 spots. Pretty much equal.

One moved one spot the other moved two spots.

Seems about right given every game in the country affects every other game in the country for Pairwise.

MN isn't going to sweep a team a few spots ahead of them in the PWR and jump 4 spots this late in the year.

[runaroundsioux]

1 minute ago, yzerman19 said:

Only guarantee is to possibly flip a H2H, which can have you steal a pwr win against that team.  RPI won't move much, likely COP won't move you much unless it's vs s conference opponent

So is that why ASU is so high with a weak schedule, since all their games are non-conference? 

[yzerman19]

I just looked at our PWR...there are really only 3 flippable comparisons, which still leaves us outside looking in.  Team has to win it...even a sweep of Western in the playoffs doesn't flip our PWR with them.

[yzerman19]

6 minutes ago, runaroundsioux said:

So is that why ASU is so high with a weak schedule, since all their games are non-conference? 

RPI is what has ASU so high.  Your winning %, your opponents winning %, and their opponents winning %

[runaroundsioux]

Just now, yzerman19 said:

I just looked at our PWR...there are really only 3 flippable comparisons, which still leaves us outside looking in.  Team has to win it...even a sweep of Western in the playoffs doesn't flip our PWR with them.

Western dropping to 14 didn't help us in that regard.

[yzerman19]

2 minutes ago, runaroundsioux said:

Western dropping to 14 didn't help us in that regard.

Didn't matter.  The 3-1 H2H with them makes a sweep a draw.  

Best case scenario is we sweep next weekend, they get swept, then we sweep them in playoffs- this would result in us winning COP, a draw in H2H, and us losing In RPI (most likely) which still gives them the PWR win, because RPI is the tie breaker.

[yzerman19]

It is possible to go on a little run and fall just short where our RPI could ultimately flip Lowell, Penn State, Norte Dame, bowling green, and Western (depending on how they all do).

i don't think anyone else is flippable.

bottom line is Buffalo killed us of all hope except an autobid

[runaroundsioux]

1 minute ago, yzerman19 said:

Didn't matter.  The 3-1 H2H with them makes a sweep a draw.  

Best case scenario is we sweep next weekend, they get swept, then we sweep them in playoffs- this would result in us winning COP, a draw in H2H, and us losing In RPI (most likely) which still gives them the PWR win, because RPI is the tie breaker.

[yzerman19]

And honestly...does this team deserve a date at the big dance???

[runaroundsioux]

27 minutes ago, yzerman19 said:

And honestly...does this team deserve a date at the big dance???

Did Duluth deserve a date last year?

[Blackheart]

ASU has no business in the tourney...loading up on those cupcakes!

[MafiaMan]

1 hour ago, yzerman19 said:

It is possible to go on a little run and fall just short where our RPI could ultimately flip Lowell, Penn State, Norte Dame, and Western (depending on how they all do).

i don't think anyone else is flippable.

bottom line is Buffalo killed us of all hope except an autobid

Seems like I recall someone saying that weeks ago...

[GDPritch]

2 hours ago, runaroundsioux said:

Can someone explain to me how #8 ASU loses two to #22 Minnesota and stays at #8? And Minnesota only moves up one to #21? Jim Dahl?

To be honest, although Ariz St has beaten some good teams (and so has UND), I really can't comprehend how they're so high up in the PW ranking.  Their strength of schedule is nothing special.   

[AJS]

22 minutes ago, GDPritch said:

To be honest, although Ariz St has beaten some good teams (and so has UND), I really can't comprehend how they're so high up in the PW ranking.  Their strength of schedule is nothing special.   

Strength of schedule is important to a point, but what ASU has done is they took care of the teams they should have. You're still better off sweeping a terrible team, then you are splitting with a top ranked team. That's why looking towards next year, although some aren't thrilled with some of our non-conference opponents we have at home (Canisius (I know) and Huntsville), if UND takes care of those games it pads your win column, which is ultimately the most important thing. 

[MafiaMan]

6 minutes ago, AJS said:

That's why looking towards next year, although some aren't thrilled with some of our non-conference opponents we have at home (Canisius (I know)...

Raise your hand if you thought next season’s home series against that team would be a “revenge” match for being on the wrong end of a sweep this season...

[GoalieMask]

Big IF but does winning a game in St. Paul boost our standing in this hypothetical game?

follow the IFs here..if UND wins a first round series vs W Mich, it will likely draw St. Cloud — assuming Denver and Duluth survive. 

The Huskies are much better than us this year but in a one game situation (where UND has more to play for), anything is possible. Would a win over  #1 SCSU give us the at-large lift we need, especially if the chalk (favorites) win other conference tournaments? Could this be our .0001 opportunity?

[fsioux]

9 hours ago, yzerman19 said:

Didn't matter.  The 3-1 H2H with them makes a sweep a draw.  

Best case scenario is we sweep next weekend, they get swept, then we sweep them in playoffs- this would result in us winning COP, a draw in H2H, and us losing In RPI (most likely) which still gives them the PWR win, because RPI is the tie breaker.

Odds of this happening are pretty much nonexistent.  Miami is not going to sweep WMU and more than likely we split with Omaha.  Pretty hard to go on a run when scoring 2 goals is considered an offensive outburst.