FCS Football Polls

[Risky]

I think the biggest obstacle to us making the playoffs is just winning next week  Win and I think we are in   

[Cratter]

It all comes down to will these 5-5 MVFC teams be ranked above UND this week?

And MVFC team, Indiana State, who is 6-4 with a d2 win on its schedule.

[UNDBIZ]

If Indiana state wins to get to 7-4 with a d2 win, they will absolutely be in ahead of UND. Decent chance 1 6-5 mvfc team gets in ahead of a 7-4 UND as well.

[Cratter]

Perfect time for a "what if" calculator right about now...

[BarnWinterSportsEngelstad]

51 minutes ago, CMSioux said:

Pretty sure all the other 7-4 teams will have similar resumes, UND just won't have any supporters in the decision room.

Actually we could get support from both the Big Sky and the MVFC verses them supporting some far away team. 

Our loses:

FBS              loss

Idaho St      25-21     4 points

Weber St    35-30      5 points

Idaho          31-27      4 points

Need N Ariz Win

[homer]

31 minutes ago, UNDBIZ said:

If Indiana state wins to get to 7-4 with a d2 win, they will absolutely be in ahead of UND. Decent chance 1 6-5 mvfc team gets in ahead of a 7-4 UND as well.

There is a legit chance the MVFC finishes next week with only 3 teams above .500 and one of them being there with a win over a 4-7 DII school.  The conference didn’t have its usual OOC dominance this year.  I just don’t see a 6-5 team from that conference getting in.  

 

[UNDBIZ]

6 minutes ago, homer said:

There is a legit chance the MVFC finishes next week with only 3 teams above .500 and one of them being there with a win over a 4-7 DII school.  The conference didn’t have its usual OOC dominance this year.  I just don’t see a 6-5 team from that conference getting in.  

 

I'm not saying what should happen. I'm saying what will happen. Perception is still that mvfc is best because they have the one best team. 

[petey23]

Not sure which results are better for UND in these games.

Montana St @ Montana

Weber State @ Idaho St.

Will the committee "group" UND with the Big Sky teams?

If Montana St and Idaho St both win that puts the Big Sky at 5 playoff teams in which case we are screwed if they are grouping us with them. Best case would be Weber and Montana winning which would(should) make us #4 from the Big Sky group. This scenario should also kill any UNI at 6-5 narrative.

[Oxbow6]

Win next week and we'll all be talking about the Idaho debacle keeping UND out of the playoffs.

[dmksioux]

Neither ISUb or ISUo can get to seven DI wins.  Can anyone clarify if it’s a rule you have to have 7 DI wins or is it an “unwritten” rule.

[Cratter]

50 minutes ago, dmksioux said:

Neither ISUb or ISUo can get to seven DI wins.  Can anyone clarify if it’s a rule you have to have 7 DI wins or is it an “unwritten” rule.

Not a written rule. In 2016, Illinois State got in at 6-5.

Selection committee uses a "Simple Rating System" as one of the tools for evaluating teams.

Which one component is margin of victory.

 

[BarnWinterSportsEngelstad]

36 minutes ago, Cratter said:

Not a written rule. Selection committee uses a "Simple Rating System."

Which one component is margin of victory.

Tough to beat the Pairwise (RPI in it and also as tie breaker) that the NCAA Div I hockey uses, no favoritism - no human judgement once the formula is in place for the season. Would have to be tweaked for FB.

Minnesota got schooled last year with that misfire of a .0001 RPI. Giving Duluth an at bat and then hitting the Grand Slam! Human judgement / error could of put the Goofs in.

[UNDBIZ]

Computer rankings work well after 30 games with lots of nonconference games to compare. Not so great for an 11 game season with minimal inter-conference play. 

[BarnWinterSportsEngelstad]

11 games make it a challenge. Just don't like a committee picking the playoff teams.

[ChrisUND1]

3 hours ago, BarnWinterSportsEngelstad said:

Actually we could get support from both the Big Sky and the MVFC verses them supporting some far away team. 

Our loses:

FBS              loss

Idaho St      25-21     4 points

Weber St    35-30      5 points

Idaho          31-27      4 points

Need N Ariz Win

I'd love to see this team get a shot in the playoffs. 

[SIOUXFAN97]

2 hours ago, Oxbow6 said:

Win next week and we'll all be talking about the SPECIALTEAMS debacle keeping UND out of the playoffs.

fixed

[SIOUXFAN97]

6 minutes ago, ChrisUND1 said:

I'd love to see this team get a shot in the playoffs. 

what have you seen recently that makes you want to watch this team play again?  this is bad bad bad quality football....some of the ugliest i've seen. ever. 

 

+++i see this NAU game almost like the usd game when we came back in the fourth and won the GREAT WEST CONFERENCE title... had we lost muss would've been gone about four years earlier.  

lose and bubba is gone and we can go to the hastage #decadebydecade or we win and who knows?

[homer]

6 minutes ago, SIOUXFAN97 said:

what have you seen recently that makes you want to watch this team play again?  this is bad bad bad quality football....some of the ugliest i've seen. ever. 

 

+++i see this NAU game almost like the usd game when we came back in the fourth and won the GREAT WEST CONFERENCE title... had we lost muss would've been gone about four years earlier.  

lose and bubba is gone and we can go to the hastage #decadebydecade or we win and who knows?

I guess most of us are fans and just enjoy watching UND football.  

[SIOUXFAN97]

Just now, homer said:

I guess most of us are fans and just enjoy watching UND football.  

this isn't und football. 

[UNDBIZ]

14 minutes ago, SIOUXFAN97 said:

what have you seen recently that makes you want to watch this team play again?  this is bad bad bad quality football....some of the ugliest i've seen. ever. 

 

+++i see this NAU game almost like the usd game when we came back in the fourth and won the GREAT WEST CONFERENCE title... had we lost muss would've been gone about four years earlier.  

lose and bubba is gone and we can go to the hastage #decadebydecade or we win and who knows?

As enlightening and well thought out as always....

[UNDBIZ]

 

[geaux_sioux]

45 minutes ago, UNDBIZ said:

 

At least he didn’t say 3

[Cratter]

Last year:

EWU 7-4 

UNI 7-4

The latest polls of the season, before the smoke filled room playoff teams were picked, both had EWU ranked above UNI.

UNI was awarded a home playoff game while EWU's season was over.

(Three 7-4 Big Sky teams sat home last year.)

[Cratter]

9 hours ago, petey23 said:

Montana St @ Montana

Weber State @ Idaho St.

If Montana St and Idaho St both win that puts the Big Sky at 5 playoff teams in which case we are screwed if they are grouping us with them. Best case would be Weber and Montana winning which would(should) make us #4 from the Big Sky group. This scenario should also kill any UNI at 6-5 narrative.

This.

It likely will come down to these two games (if UND wins):

If Montana St wins they are 7-4 and likely beat out UND for a playoff spot. Montana wins they are 7-4 and loses the "unofficial tie breaker" to UND.

Idaho State* beats Weber State and they finish at 7-4 and also have the "unofficial tie breaker" over UND.

 (*The win vs Weber would probably trump playing a d2 team for Idaho State...or they'll use that excuse to selection another MVFC team).

[geaux_sioux]

Sagarin has us 23 if you remove the two Ivy League schools ahead of us.