BU @ Nodak, Saturday night game thread

[cberkas]

5 minutes ago, .357 said:

Even just 1 loss against any of those 3 teams will probably put a big dent in our PWR. Cracking the top 4 for a #1 seed in the playoffs might be a tough task this year, considering how strong DU, BC, BU, MN & MSU appear to be. 

A question for those good with numbers/scenarios: Would a split with DU & a sweep of Robert Morris be better for our PWR than a sweep of DU & a split with Robert Morris? (provided that DU finishes near the top this year & Robert Morris near the bottom)

You can customize the results here

2025 NCAA Tournament Pairwise Comparison Ratings : College Hockey News

Simple answer is you don't lose to teams from weak conferences. 

[hockeytherapy13]

1 hour ago, .357 said:

Even just 1 loss against any of those 3 teams will probably put a big dent in our PWR. Cracking the top 4 for a #1 seed in the playoffs might be a tough task this year, considering how strong DU, BC, BU, MN & MSU appear to be. 

A question for those good with numbers/scenarios: Would a split with DU & a sweep of Robert Morris be better for our PWR than a sweep of DU & a split with Robert Morris? (provided that DU finishes near the top this year & Robert Morris near the bottom)

This is a great question that I've seen answered quite a bit by Adam Wodon (CHN) and Jim Connelly (USCHO) who give the same answers every time. Bad losses hurt more than good wins help. 

[burd]

3 hours ago, hockeytherapy13 said:

This is a great question that I've seen answered quite a bit by Adam Wodon (CHN) and Jim Connelly (USCHO) who give the same answers every time. Bad losses hurt more than good wins help. 

I don't care who we lose to in conference if it helps us lose the Penrose.  I can finally see that it's just a Rope-a-Dope tactic by messrs Carle and Sandelin.

[SiouxFanSince1990]

16 hours ago, brianvf said:

Doesn't get any easier the next three weekends either.
I could see a split the next three weeks against Cornell, UMD, and DU.

Cornell is a big, heavy, experienced team like Mankato.  We won't get nearly as many scoring chances as we did against BU.  Time and space on the ice will have to be earned.  Some really really good UND teams have failed to sweep Duluth in Duluth, even if our skill level is superior IMO.  And then DU will be a really tough series...they're playing lights out early this season.

Going 3-3 in those 6 games doesn't seem awesome, for sure.  But then the next three weekends are Robert Morris, BSU, and Miami.  I would hope for a 5-1 record at worst in those 6 games.

I will give Berry props with the schedule. He challenges his team. We are always high on the SOS. Winning the games against average to below average teams, has been a problem. Show up, and play fast hockey.

[SiouxFanSince1990]

7 hours ago, fightingsioux4life said:

I think we get clean sweeps of all three of those teams.

Optimism is good. It’s entirely possible. I think James is about to explode. Once the puck starts going in the net, look out!

[Stack]

On 10/27/2024 at 4:38 PM, Wilbur said:

I don't mind starting TJ, but you are right.  Gotta get Hobie in the net.  And at some point portal goalie has to stop.

In a series like this Berry should have started Hobie on Saturday especially at home. TJ was fine on Friday but who wouldn't be with a 5-goal cushion after one. If Hobie doesn't get a few starts in the next month or so he might start looking at heading someplace where he gets to play, improve, and show how good he actually is. 

In general, I didn't think TJ made any saves that he wasn't supposed to on Saturday and that second PP goal from the point he should have had. Not screened at all. 

As you said transfer goalie crap needs to stop and develop or own goalies but hey you have to play in a game to develop.  

[stoneySIOUX]

9 minutes ago, Stack said:

In a series like this Berry should have started Hobie on Saturday especially at home. TJ was fine on Friday but who wouldn't be with a 5-goal cushion after one. If Hobie doesn't get a few starts in the next month or so he might start looking at heading someplace where he gets to play, improve, and show how good he actually is. 

In general, I didn't think TJ made any saves that he wasn't supposed to on Saturday and that second PP goal from the point he should have had. Not screened at all. 

As you said transfer goalie crap needs to stop and develop or own goalies but hey you have to play in a game to develop.  

Why? I feel like the better goalie should play. Are we developing goalies differently than any other program in the NCAA? I don't really get why it's a big deal to get a good goalie every season. If Hobie earns his ice, he should play. 

[brianvf]

Return of the analytics!!  Argghh!! 

https://www.grandforksherald.com/sports/und-hockey/unds-five-on-five-play-a-positive-early-this-season

Quote

UND gave up three special teams goals Saturday night in a 4-3 loss to Boston University in Ralph Engelstad Arena. It spoiled a strong night at even strength for the Fighting Hawks.

Analytics highlighted it.

Even strength expected goals: 2.28-1 UND.
Even strength shot attempts: 53-38 UND.
Even strength shot attempts from the slot: 19-8 UND.
Even strength odd-man rushes: 7-3 UND.
Even strength offensive zone possession time: 6:06-3:33 UND.

Also, some faceoff stats:

Quote

• UND forward Jake Schmaltz went 27-9 in the faceoff dot against Boston University and is now at 56-24 (70 percent) for the season. Cameron Berg was 12-2 in the series finale.

 

[siouxforce19]

16 minutes ago, brianvf said:

Return of the analytics!!  Argghh!! 

https://www.grandforksherald.com/sports/und-hockey/unds-five-on-five-play-a-positive-early-this-season

Also, some faceoff stats:

 

BU has a stats blog and they posted all about their xG stats and I laughed based on everyone here who hates that stat 

[Oxbow6]

3 hours ago, brianvf said:

Return of the analytics!!  Argghh!!  

 

2 hours ago, siouxforce19 said:

BU has a stats blog and they posted all about their xG stats and I laughed based on everyone here who hates that stat 

So in the land of unicorns and Pixie dust did UND then sweep BU this past weekend? 

[siouxkid12]

On 10/26/2024 at 9:43 PM, siouxforce19 said:

This is our second series this season. Could we at least try to have some patience with this team? 

I hear that every year and it’s the same result. Other teams don’t seem to have a problem when new players are brought in, why are we different? 

[siouxforce19]

11 hours ago, siouxkid12 said:

I hear that every year and it’s the same result. Other teams don’t seem to have a problem when new players are brought in, why are we different? 

Other teams do in fact have this problem. Their fans just have a lot more patience. 

[tnt]

12 hours ago, siouxkid12 said:

I hear that every year and it’s the same result. Other teams don’t seem to have a problem when new players are brought in, why are we different? 

You do realize that we have won more league titles than anyone, and that the complaint for the most part isn't the regular season success, but that of the post season.  People want to have it both ways, they say all that they care about are post season results, but then complain all the time when we lose games that in their eyes are basically meaningless, except to the extent that they do enough to make the NCAA tournament. 

[siouxkid12]

42 minutes ago, tnt said:

You do realize that we have won more league titles than anyone, and that the complaint for the most part isn't the regular season success, but that of the post season.  People want to have it both ways, they say all that they care about are post season results, but then complain all the time when we lose games that in their eyes are basically meaningless, except to the extent that they do enough to make the NCAA tournament. 

I am not saying anything about league titles or NCAA tournament appearances. I merely stated that other teams don't have a problem like UND does year in and year out. There are 26 players on the team and 18 are upper classmen, they should know how to play together by now. Early season games are more important than most UND fans like to believe, that is why it is so important to come out the gate running on all cylinders. I'd also be willing to bet the coaching staff stresses how important it is to come out swinging.

[dustnyou]

“Year in and year out problem” lol. 59 other teams would love to have UND’s “problems”. You do realize the Sioux win more games than most everyone else right? Year after year with large roster turnaround as well. What a silly comment 

[stoneySIOUX]

15 hours ago, siouxkid12 said:

I hear that every year and it’s the same result. Other teams don’t seem to have a problem when new players are brought in, why are we different? 

 

1 hour ago, siouxkid12 said:

I am not saying anything about league titles or NCAA tournament appearances. I merely stated that other teams don't have a problem like UND does year in and year out. There are 26 players on the team and 18 are upper classmen, they should know how to play together by now. Early season games are more important than most UND fans like to believe, that is why it is so important to come out the gate running on all cylinders. I'd also be willing to bet the coaching staff stresses how important it is to come out swinging.

Maybe a little quick analysis on this one might clear things up. In the past five seasons combined in the first five regular season games, UND is 15-8-3 and in the first 10, they are 25-11-4. 

24-25 -- 3-2 in first 5
23-24 -- 4-1, 7-2-1 in first 10
22-23 -- 2-2-1, 4-4-2
21-22 -- 3-2, 7-3
20-21 - 3-1-1, 7-2-1

I think UND has performed just fine to start seasons recently. This conversation feels largely due to our poor performance against Auggie this year. Just my opinion.

[brianvf]

22 minutes ago, stoneySIOUX said:

This conversation feels largely due to our poor performance against Auggie this year. Just my opinion.

But that exhibition loss could come back and bite them, right? 

[Godsmack]

On 10/28/2024 at 11:21 AM, hockeytherapy13 said:

This is a great question that I've seen answered quite a bit by Adam Wodon (CHN) and Jim Connelly (USCHO) who give the same answers every time. Bad losses hurt more than good wins help. 

CC learned that the hard way last season. Despite several quality wins against teams ranked #1 at one point or another, against Minnesota, DU, and UND, losing-at home-to Augustana hurt and likely is what cost them a tournament spot. 

[stoneySIOUX]

2 hours ago, brianvf said:

But that exhibition loss could come back and bite them, right? 

LOL based on this conversation, I think some think so.

If you would have told me we'd be 3-2 going into the Cornell series when this schedule first came out with Providence, Mankato, and BU to start, I think I'd be happy with that. Not perfectly happy, but certainly not mad about it. 

[burd]

11 minutes ago, stoneySIOUX said:

LOL based on this conversation, I think some think so.

If you would have told me we'd be 3-2 going into the Cornell series when this schedule first came out with Providence, Mankato, and BU to start, I think I'd be happy with that. Not perfectly happy, but certainly not mad about it. 

But you are comfortable with mediocrity and refuse to be critical.  

[stoneySIOUX]

32 minutes ago, burd said:

But you are comfortable with mediocrity and refuse to be critical.  

Absolutely untrue, but I think some would say this about me lol. I'll be critical when it warrants it. A 3-2 start against three ranked teams, one being No. 3 in the country, I'm not upset about it.

[cberkas]

1 hour ago, Godsmack said:

CC learned that the hard way last season. Despite several quality wins against teams ranked #1 at one point or another, against Minnesota, DU, and UND, losing-at home-to Augustana hurt and likely is what cost them a tournament spot. 

CC was a victim of the committee going strictly by the PWR. I have to agree with Wodon and say that committee needs to make tough decisions and not be strictly by the PWR. CC should have been in, and Providence should have been out just by their records vs teams in the NCAA tournament. 

[siouxforce19]

1 minute ago, cberkas said:

CC was a victim of the committee going strictly by the PWR. I have to agree with Wodon and say that committee needs to make tough decisions and not be strictly by the PWR. CC should have been in, and Providence should have been out just by their records vs teams in the NCAA tournament. 

I think you mean UMass? 

[cberkas]

2 minutes ago, siouxforce19 said:

I think you mean UMass? 

Probably, just remember it was .0001 difference. 

[Big Green]

8 minutes ago, cberkas said:

CC was a victim of the committee going strictly by the PWR. I have to agree with Wodon and say that committee needs to make tough decisions and not be strictly by the PWR. CC should have been in, and Providence should have been out just by their records vs teams in the NCAA tournament. 

I couldn't disagree with this more.  Best thing about Hockey NCAA Tournament is that the the options of the Committee members don't matter when it comes to who is in and who is out.  If you are the 1st team out you have nothing to complain about.  You had numerus chances to get get in.  Learn your lesson and play better from the beginning of the year next year.