PWR predictions

[jimdahl]

So how does a tie affect the Pairwise for the Sioux compared to a loss? Does it help? I am just wondering because BE saved that point for us in the WCHA standings but does it also help in the Pairwise?

For a very accurate but limited 1-week answer, you can go to Whelan's Build Your Own Rankings calculator, say you want to calculate PWR, and change that game to a loss. That would put UND at T-14 (#15 w/tie-breaker), so the tie did a buy the Sioux a spot this week over if it had been a loss.

More abstractly, it helps:

• A tie goes into RPI as half a win, boosting UND's RPI by something like .0036 over if it had been a loss. That's enough to give UND the Ohio St. comparison this week, and could have similar effects at the end.
  
• Assuming Tech remains a non-TUC, it wouldn't affect H2H or TUC.
  
• And on COP gives UND's COP vs. Mich. Tech a little boost from .500 to .750. That's most helpful in comparisons with non-conference common opponents, where the effect is magnified by the small number of COPs. e.g. vs. Boston College, the Sioux now win the comparison at .75 to .6667, whereas with a loss it would have been a .625 to .6667 loss.
  

[fargosioux]

So how does a tie affect the Pairwise for the Sioux compared to a loss? Does it help? I am just wondering because BE saved that point for us in the WCHA standings but does it also help in the Pairwise?

A loss (instead of a tie) on Saturday night would have kept us at #14. A win would have moved us up to #13. This is according to the "Build Your Own Rankings" site that's referenced earlier in this thread.

Edit: Jim trumped my answer above. But at least I was close!

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

For a very accurate but limited 1-week answer, you can go to Whelan's Build Your Own Rankings calculator, say you want to calculate PWR, and change that game to a loss. That would put UND at T-14 (#15 w/tie-breaker), so the tie did a buy the Sioux a spot this week over if it had been a loss.

More abstractly, it helps:

• A tie goes into RPI as half a win, boosting UND's RPI by something like .0036 over if it had been a loss. That's enough to give UND the Ohio St. comparison this week, and could have similar effects at the end.
  
• Assuming Tech remains a non-TUC, it wouldn't affect H2H or TUC.
  
• And on COP gives UND's COP vs. Mich. Tech a little boost from .500 to .750. That's most helpful in comparisons with non-conference common opponents, where the effect is magnified by the small number of COPs. e.g. vs. Boston College, the Sioux now win the comparison at .75 to .6667, whereas with a loss it would have been a .625 to .6667 loss.
  

Thanks, that is a very helpful explanation. I had never considered a tie since all of the PWR predictor articles are whether we will get 0,2, or 4 points. Wasn't sure what 3 would do when I was watching the end of the game on Saturday night.

[jodcon]

I wish I knew or could understand the pairwise

Do what I do:

1) Go to this link...http://siouxsports.c...y/rankings/pwr/

2) See which other teams are ranked 8-16

3) Cheer against them all

4) Wait for next days rankings

5) Repeat procedure

[GFG]

Do what I do:

1) Go to this link...http://siouxsports.c...y/rankings/pwr/

2) See which other teams are ranked 8-16

3) Cheer against them all

4) Wait for next days rankings

5) Repeat procedure

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

Do what I do:

1) Go to this link...http://siouxsports.c...y/rankings/pwr/

2) See which other teams are ranked 8-16

3) Cheer against them all

4) Wait for next days rankings

5) Repeat procedure

That's been my strategy so far, Makes a lot more games interesting!

[SiouxScore]

This weeks Bracketology from Jason Moy at USCHO

St. Paul

14 North Dakota vs. 4 Ferris State

10 Michigan State vs. 8 Minnesota

Green Bay

15 Cornell vs. 2 Michigan

11 Miami vs. 5 Minnesota-Duluth

Bridgeport

13 Ohio State vs. 3 Massachusetts-Lowell

12 Denver vs. 6 Boston University

Worcester

16 Air Force vs. 1 Boston College

9 Maine vs. 7 Union

Read more: http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/#ixzz1n8h0M2d9

[siouxczech29]

UND vs UMtc in the west region championship game at the X would be insane!

[Ray77]

UND vs UMtc in the west region championship game at the X would be insane!

The Gophers would have to get by Mich. St. first.

[brianvf]

The Gophers would have to get by Mich. St. first.

And, of course, we'd have to get by Ferris St first. I remember the last time we faced Ferris in the 1st round of the NCAA's...didn't end so well for our Sioux.

[darell1976]

And, of course, we'd have to get by Ferris St first. I remember the last time we faced Ferris in the 1st round of the NCAA's...didn't end so well for our Sioux.

Of course we would be just North Dakota to the rest of the world and UND would be wearing new hockey jerseys. Because of the NCAA sanctions.

[jodcon]

Battling our way into the tournament is more than likely going to reward us with a 4 seed, meaning facing a killer in the first round.

But if we could beat them, Tampa would actually be reachable.

[GoalieMask]

But if UND is a #4, you got to like the chances of playing Ferris State in St. Paul as opposed to BC or UM Lowell out East. Not to mention Michigan in Green Bay. This is one of the perks of UND (they travel very well regionally) so they will be an attractive draw.

I think Moy is spot on, If UND gets in and they're ranked 11-16, it's St. Paul boys and girls.

The only other scenario is this: I wouldn't be suprised (if Duluth climbs and Ferris falls) if they put the Bulldogs and Gophers in St. Paul and UND goes elsewhere.

Whatever it takes, I want to see North Dakota in action the weekend of March 23-25.

[jodcon]

But if UND is a #4, you got to like the chances of playing Ferris State in St. Paul as opposed to BC or UM Lowell out East.

Absolutely, I would take that bracket in a heartbeat.

[buckysieve]

Absolutely, I would take that bracket in a heartbeat.

The Sioux can make a run. Great top line, good defense, two experienced goalies. And this years team probably wont feel the pressure to win the whole thing like past Sioux teams that were more talented and higher ranked so they can play more relaxed.

[krangodance]

But if UND is a #4, you got to like the chances of playing Ferris State in St. Paul as opposed to BC or UM Lowell out East. Not to mention Michigan in Green Bay. This is one of the perks of UND (they travel very well regionally) so they will be an attractive draw.

I think Moy is spot on, If UND gets in and they're ranked 11-16, it's St. Paul boys and girls.

The only other scenario is this: I wouldn't be suprised (if Duluth climbs and Ferris falls) if they put the Bulldogs and Gophers in St. Paul and UND goes elsewhere.

Whatever it takes, I want to see North Dakota in action the weekend of March 23-25.

Absolutely. It would be enough just to see UND in the tournament after the way this season has gone. Getting placed at the X would be a huge bonus.

[jimdahl]

As always, lots more on the other side of the link.... Sioux-Pioneers matchup has playoff implications for both

[Goon]

As always, lots more on the other side of the link.... Sioux-Pioneers matchup has playoff implications for both

What happens is UND takes a win and a tie or a couple of ties this weekend?

[GFG]

pretty sure two ties would equal one win? No?

[siouxu31]

For the PWR two ties would equal a win and a loss, but with the second tie breaker in WCHA tourney seeding being total league wins, two ties would hurt us in our head to head against teams like Denver, Omaha, or St. Cloud who we have an equal head to head record against, which in the end could put us on the road for the first round of the WCHA playoffs, or just make our first round series that much tougher. Come WCHA playoff time we are going to need to win our first round series most likely and maybe a game or two at the X, so the easier the road the better.

[siouxhockeyfan11]

Jim what about who to cheer for in the Ohio State Miami series? they both sit right in front of us so im curious if a split would be best or we should just hope for a sweep from either side.

[siouxnami]

With the Alaska UND in now #9, sealing the deal in Denver would be huge given that we didn't in Duluth.

[Goon]

With the Alaska UND in now #9, sealing the deal in Denver would be huge given that we didn't in Duluth.

I am really excited that UND seems to be trending towards a tourney berth.

[Siouxhockey78]

peaking at the right time lets just keep winning going

[luapsided]

So win the final five it is, or go home?

EDIT: Make it to the final five, win and/or go home?