krangodance Posted February 10, 2012 Posted February 10, 2012 I'm jonesin' for this week's pwr predictions. Anything going up this week, Jim? Quote
jimdahl Posted February 10, 2012 Author Posted February 10, 2012 I've been distracted by all the nickname shenanigans, so didn't get this written until today... ND facing #5 UMD has opportunity to climb in the PWR Other than UND's opportunity to make a big move against a high-ranking TUC, most interesting is the noticeable shift to the left in the season outlook. I won't insert last week's to avoid confusion, but here it is. The win 5-6 scenarios have shifted about a full ranking position in UND's favor, good news for Sioux fans. Quote
BigGreyAnt41 Posted February 10, 2012 Posted February 10, 2012 What do you think caused the upward shift in the possible rankings? Any ideas? Quote
82SiouxGuy Posted February 10, 2012 Posted February 10, 2012 What do you think caused the upward shift in the possible rankings? Any ideas? My guess would be losses last week by some schools ranked higher than UND. Quote
jimdahl Posted February 10, 2012 Author Posted February 10, 2012 Almost everything went right for UND last week. Of the things I listed to watch, nearly everything went UND's way (a couple desired wins were ties). The Michigan sweep over Miami was the biggest. We're basically in the driver's seat now on the comparison with Miami. You also have to think about the way the "possible outcomes" tree gets pruned -- KRACH only gave Michigan sweeping (a very desirable outcome for UND) a 25% probability of occurring, so when that happened it eliminated 3/4 of the likely scenarios, most less favorable for UND than those that remained. Those moves almost always average out over time, and usually do within a given week, but last week everything went right for the Sioux. Quote
Blackheart Posted February 11, 2012 Posted February 11, 2012 Sioux #10 in the pairwise right now!(that could change as more games finish up) Quote
GoalieMask Posted February 11, 2012 Posted February 11, 2012 Denver win over Minnesota dropped UND to 14. With a Sioux win tonight, things are looking rosy! They are all huge, but the pair of games in Denver will be monsters. Quote
Blackheart Posted February 11, 2012 Posted February 11, 2012 Denver win over Minnesota dropped UND to 14. With a Sioux win tonight, things are looking rosy! They are all huge, but the pair of games in Denver will be monsters. USCHO pair wise has the SIOUX at 13 now...keep winning boys! Quote
jimdahl Posted February 12, 2012 Author Posted February 12, 2012 Well, like I said, the external effects tend to average out over time. Both of the most important series for UND (other than its own) went as wrong as possible for the Sioux... Denver swept and Miami swept. And there's a new #1 in town that you never would have guessed... Ferris State! From #19 on Jan. 2, they prove how much you can move with a big lossless streak. Quote
Siouxhockey78 Posted February 12, 2012 Posted February 12, 2012 Got to keep winning should have won on Saturday shot ourselves in the foot. Quote
Dolphinswin Posted February 13, 2012 Posted February 13, 2012 We remain at 15th even with our split? Quote
GoalieMask Posted February 13, 2012 Posted February 13, 2012 We remain at 15th even with our split? Not only 15th, but tied for 15th with Miami who owns the tiebreaker. With Atlantic champ added via auto-bid (a team who isn't even in Top 25 now), the Sioux are on the outside looking in. Quote
Dolphinswin Posted February 13, 2012 Posted February 13, 2012 I'm still trying to understand the pwr. The top 16 get in? I assume that since there's auto bids for the tournament and there's teams from some divisions not even in the top 16 that thows it off? What's a number that will give u a solid chance at getting in? 13? Quote
jodcon Posted February 13, 2012 Posted February 13, 2012 I'm still trying to understand the pwr. The top 16 get in? I assume that since there's auto bids for the tournament and there's teams from some divisions not even in the top 16 that thows it off? What's a number that will give u a solid chance at getting in? 13? More like 11 to be safe. There are 5 or 6 autobids, I can't remember exactly right off hand. EDIT: It's 6. Quote
Dolphinswin Posted February 13, 2012 Posted February 13, 2012 so what do u think it will take for us to get in with these last few series? Quote
jodcon Posted February 13, 2012 Posted February 13, 2012 so what do u think it will take for us to get in with these last few series? 5-1 in the last 6 should be good enough. 4-2 would probably mean we would need to win at least 3 games in the WCHA Playoffs. But it's an everchanging deal every week, if it comes down to us being a team right on the bubble we will have to cheer for the teams ahead of us in the PWR to win their conference tournaments, if teams below us end up getting the autobids we could be left out even at 11-14. Sweeping Tech is almost a must right now. Quote
Big A HG Posted February 13, 2012 Posted February 13, 2012 The conference tournaments will be a big deal as well for a team like the Sioux. It's nice to have a good regular season outlook. At worst, the Sioux can afford maybe two more losses, but one is going to be incredibly more helpful. Then, the Sioux will have a must-win first round series of the WCHA Tourney. They have to get back to the X. Also, there are only five (not six now that the CHA is gone) autobids now, which is helpful. WCHA, CCHA, Hockey East, ECAC, and Atlantic Hockey. At that point, you hope that teams that will already have received an at-large bid win their conference tourneys. If you get teams that wouldn't have made the NCAA with an at-large bid winning auto-bids, it eats up spots fast. Quote
petey23 Posted February 13, 2012 Posted February 13, 2012 More like 11 to be safe. There are 5 or 6 autobids, I can't remember exactly right off hand. EDIT: It's 6. 14 should be a pretty safe spot to be in. Atlantic Hockey will take 1 spot of the 16 so that knocks it down to 15 ECAC will take 1 spot which may or may not knock it down to 14 For more spots to disappear you would need a team ranked 7th or lower in the CCHA and 6th or lower in the HEA and 4th or lower in WCHA to win those conference tournies for additional spots to disappear. Of course we don't want to leave anything to chance. Quote
jodcon Posted February 13, 2012 Posted February 13, 2012 14 should be a pretty safe spot to be in. Atlantic Hockey will take 1 spot of the 16 so that knocks it down to 15 ECAC will take 1 spot which may or may not knock it down to 14 For more spots to disappear you would need a team ranked 7th or lower in the CCHA and 6th or lower in the HEA and 4th or lower in WCHA to win those conference tournies for additional spots to disappear. Of course we don't want to leave anything to chance. Aw, forgot about CHA, so only 5 autobids instead of 6 will help. And petey is right about the teams, it would take a team in the middle of the pack of most leagues to win because the top few teams are already ahead of us in PWR so 13 is probably a safe number. I don't think that changes anything as far as wins needed goes, I still think we need to win at least 5 games plus a first round sweep in the WCHA playoffs to get in, if we go 4-2 we might need to win a game or 2 at the X. Quote
Oxbow6 Posted February 13, 2012 Posted February 13, 2012 5-1 in the last 6 should be good enough. 4-2 would probably mean we would need to win at least 3 games in the WCHA Playoffs. Sweeping Tech is almost a must right now. I was thinking 7-1 'til we get to the X...have to sweep last 2 home series and win the the 1st round of WCHA at home...split at DU is a minimum. Penalties and goaltending the next 4 weeks will seal our NCAA fate IMO. Mac and Blood just have to be a little smarter here on out and avoid the box as much as possible. Dell has been really good, then not so much. Needs to be really good and stay that way from here on out. Think the top line is due for a late season push. Rowney is hot and Easy and Parks are playing well too. If we can get Mario's line to cash in that would be a bonus. Quote
Big A HG Posted February 13, 2012 Posted February 13, 2012 I was thinking 7-1 'til we get to the X...have to sweep last 2 home series and win the the 1st round of WCHA at home...split at DU is a minimum. Penalties and goaltending the next 4 weeks will seal our NCAA fate IMO. Mac and Blood just have to be a little smarter here on out and avoid the box as much as possible. Dell has been really good, then not so much. Needs to be really good and stay that way from here on out. Think the top line is due for a late season push. Rowney is hot and Easy and Parks are playing well too. If we can get Mario's line to cash in that would be a bonus. Mario takes just about the same number of penalties as Mac and Blood. He gets a little too carried away with his style of play sometimes. 1 Quote
Oxbow6 Posted February 13, 2012 Posted February 13, 2012 Mario takes just about the same number of penalties as Mac and Blood. He gets a little too carried away with his style of play sometimes. Correct...those are the top 3 on the team. Quote
rochsioux Posted February 13, 2012 Posted February 13, 2012 The loss on Sat. really hurt the pairwise ranking. With a tie UND would be 13th, with a win they would have moved up to 8th. Quote
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.