The Whistler Posted March 19, 2010 Posted March 19, 2010 now that we have disposed of them, i do hope they get in to the ncaas, because even with rwd as a fan, i still root for the dogs when we aren't playing them. on a side note, i am glad you like math jim, because its alot easier when you figure the pwr out and just tell us what we need to know I agree with you. The Dog's are my favorite OTHER team. I hope they get in. I'll also have to complement Jim on getting it right again. Infallible. make whistler a moderator. Quote
Blackheart Posted March 19, 2010 Posted March 19, 2010 I agree with you. The Dog's are my favorite OTHER team. I hope they get in. I'll also have to complement Jim on getting it right again. Infallible. make whistler a moderator. Agreed. I like Duluth in spite of RWD. Quote
The Sicatoka Posted March 19, 2010 Posted March 19, 2010 Based on Jim's Friday PWR update column, I believe we can safely predict over half of the tournament field. I say this based on assuming finishing 12 in PWR in the worst case is still safe to get in: Denver 1-2 Miami 1-3 UW 2-5 UND 3-6 SCSU 4-10 Boston College 3-9 Bemidji State 5-10 Yale 7-12 plus the UAH Chargers. Quote
siouxweet Posted March 19, 2010 Posted March 19, 2010 maybe heading out east won't be the worst thing despite having to be in bc's bracket as we will have played 6 games in 9 days and would get an extra days' rest. Quote
jimdahl Posted March 19, 2010 Author Posted March 19, 2010 Did a little more crunching on UMD... Cornell losing out is the single most important thing to the Bulldogs. If Cornell wins 0, UMD is #13 or above in 16% and #14 or above 52%. If Cornell wins 1, UMD is #13 or above just 3% and 14 or above 27%. If Cornell wins 2, UMD is #13 or above <1% and 14 or above 10%. Vermont getting no wins also helps a lot. As yzerman observed above, there's definitely something going on with Ferris St & Mich that helps UMD, but it's still not entirely clear to me. It's pretty important that Michigan win 1 game (not 0, not 2), but I can't tell which. There are a lot of situations in which Ferris St wins one or two games and UMD still makes it. RIT losing seems to help, but isn't always required. If there's something interesting to report, I'll probably try to post updates a couple times as games end. Quote
Blackheart Posted March 19, 2010 Posted March 19, 2010 So Badgers losing today helps the Sioux in the Pairwise? Quote
Goon Posted March 19, 2010 Posted March 19, 2010 Agreed. I like Duluth in spite of RWD. She has been quite today... Quote
siouxweet Posted March 19, 2010 Posted March 19, 2010 So Badgers losing today helps the Sioux in the Pairwise? only if the sioux win tonight and tomorrow and wisc loses again tomorrow. otherwise it won't mean anything. Quote
jimdahl Posted March 19, 2010 Author Posted March 19, 2010 With NMU and BC wins (assuming the Eagles hold on) UMD falls to a .03% chance of finishing #13. #3 is also getting a lot harder for UND. Edit -- here's what's required for UMD #13 (all of these are required, if not listed, it doesn't matter): Miami sweep, Ferris lose, BC win, BU lose, Union sweep, Sacred Heart sweep Quote
redwing77 Posted March 20, 2010 Posted March 20, 2010 ok, here's my scenario: Michigan wins the CCHA, Miami gets 3rd Cornell wins the ECACHLMAO and Brown gets 3rd UND wins the WCHA and DU gets 3rd RIT wins the AHA Maine wins HEA Hello #3 in the PWR. BC drops to #6. 3 of 4 #1 seeds are #1 seeds (UND, DU, UW). UND still a #1 seed in the above scenario if UW wins 3rd over DU. If BC beats Maine, then BC is a #1 seed. I am beginning to think that the only way we can become a #1 seed is if BC loses. Though making it interesting using my above scenario: If SCSU and Maine win the WCHA and HEA respectively, both UND and BC will become #2 seeds.. but that's mythical because then SCSU will become a #1 seed... When is the last time a #1 seed was one and done? Quote
Esoxpirate Posted March 20, 2010 Posted March 20, 2010 This is what i can figure after this evenings games... If SCSU wins they get a 4 seed no matter what BC does... If UND wins they only get a 4 seed if BC loses... finished 4th with win and BC lost 5th with win and BC win 6th with loss and BC win... duluth only gets in only if N. michigan and cornell with their respective games how did i do Jim? Esox Quote
jimdahl Posted March 20, 2010 Author Posted March 20, 2010 This is what i can figure after this evenings games... If SCSU wins they get a 4 seed no matter what BC does... If UND wins they only get a 4 seed if BC loses... finished 4th with win and BC lost 5th with win and BC win 6th with loss and BC win... duluth only gets in only if N. michigan and cornell with their respective games how did i do Jim? Esox You got me, I count on you guys for that stuff! I'm actually still trying to figure out UMD's fate... Quote
Esoxpirate Posted March 20, 2010 Posted March 20, 2010 I forgot about Maine... if the black bears win tomarrow night Duluth is smoked... also I forgot to figure in the Wcha third place game in my last post... Best i can figure... for UND to get a 1 seed. They need to win, and have one of the following loose... BC or wisco... also if any two of the following win New hampsire is out and Alaska firmly on the bubble: Maine, Michigan, and union.... Esox Quote
jimdahl Posted March 20, 2010 Author Posted March 20, 2010 I see one path for UMD. #14 is the best possible finish, but... To get that requires: Miami over Ferris NMU over Michigan Alabama Huntsville already has a spot. Sacred Heart or RIT will take one. If Union wins they take a slot, so Cornell has to win, leaving UMD at #14 and only two autobids stealing spots. Quote
RedFrog Posted March 20, 2010 Posted March 20, 2010 I played around and tried to find a scenario where UND would be in St. Cloud's regional. Couldn't do it, we're going to get either BC or Wisconsin....not sure which way to go there as I haven't seen BC at all this year and they are 12-2-1 in their last 15 and haven't lost in their last 8. Quote
Upper Deck Posted March 20, 2010 Posted March 20, 2010 I played around and tried to find a scenario where UND would be in St. Cloud's regional. Couldn't do it, we're going to get either BC or Wisconsin....not sure which way to go there as I haven't seen BC at all this year and they are 12-2-1 in their last 15 and haven't lost in their last 8. Moy is having a Bracketology chat on USCHO right now. Quote
sprig Posted March 20, 2010 Posted March 20, 2010 Can't imagine Wisco can win another meaningless game tomorrow, especially after today's lack of effort against SCSU. I''d expect Denver to come to play, much as I'dl like to see them lose again. Quote
sioux rube Posted March 20, 2010 Posted March 20, 2010 I played around and tried to find a scenario where UND would be in St. Cloud's regional. Couldn't do it, we're going to get either BC or Wisconsin....not sure which way to go there as I haven't seen BC at all this year and they are 12-2-1 in their last 15 and haven't lost in their last 8.And the Sioux are 11-1 in their last 12.Bring em on. Quote
dagies Posted March 20, 2010 Posted March 20, 2010 I agree with you. The Dog's are my favorite OTHER team. I hope they get in. I'll also have to complement Jim on getting it right again. Infallible. make whistler a moderator. Same here, always root for UMD. Quote
redwing77 Posted March 20, 2010 Posted March 20, 2010 UW vs DU, in my opinion, is going to be a boring game. NEITHER team has anything to play for. I'd love to see a tie. 0-0 Dress as many D as they can and rest everyone on their top lines. HEck, top two if they can. Quote
AZSIOUX Posted March 20, 2010 Posted March 20, 2010 UW vs DU, in my opinion, is going to be a boring game. NEITHER team has anything to play for. I'd love to see a tie. 0-0 Dress as many D as they can and rest everyone on their top lines. HEck, top two if they can. it said on uscho pairwise blog at one point that und-bc-scsu-uw are all battling for the last 2 #1 seeds blog Jayson Moy: 3-6 will be some combination of Wisconsin, Boston College, St. Cloud and North Dakota. Wisconsin is 3 with a win tomorrow, and a BC win most likely gives them the 4 and final 1 seed denver wins will get them the overall #1 Quote
farce poobah Posted March 20, 2010 Posted March 20, 2010 UW vs DU, in my opinion, is going to be a boring game. NEITHER team has anything to play for. I agree about the boring part. But BOTH teams have a lot at stake. For DU, a win gives them Alabama-Huntsville in the first round. Not quite a bye, but in a tournament where the rest of the games are almost a coin flip, that's a significant advantage. For UW, a win gives them a #1 seed and almost certainly a trip back to St Paul. Lose and go somewhere else. Quote
ILOVEHOCKEY15 Posted March 20, 2010 Posted March 20, 2010 Any possible way the Sioux end up at the X? Quote
brianvf Posted March 20, 2010 Posted March 20, 2010 Bracket of death for UND. BC and maybe Michigan? If Michigan wins the CCHA tomorrow and gets in as a #4 seed, which #1 seed gets the pleasure of playing them first? They are red-hot recently... Quote
Big A HG Posted March 20, 2010 Posted March 20, 2010 #3 overall is still in the mix for UND. My calculation, when in the #3 spot, doesn't help us much. We still end up out east somewhere, and BC ultimately ended up at #6 in the calculation, which would still end up likely putting us with them...unless we get sent to Albany and they stay in Worcester after the committee does their changes. Any insight Jimmy? Quote
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