MafiaMan Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 3 hours ago, dynato said: Again, the criticism was dramatized. Under shoot, over shoot, it does not matter, it is just a model and that is what models do. Tell that to the millions of unemployed Americans and ask for their thoughts on the matter... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SIOUXFAN97 Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 3 hours ago, dynato said: Again, the criticism was dramatized. Under shoot, over shoot, it does not matter, it is just a model and that is what models do. They are all just simulations with inputs and assumed outputs. Models are not garbage because they do not fit your application or because you do not understand how they should be applied to your situation. Now about the decisions made over using a model that does not fit needs correctly? Those can be questioned as right or wrong or failures. He is just misdirecting your anger for clicks. If someone could create a model than can accurately predict a week into the future they would be rich. We can't predict the weather a week out with 100% accuracy and that has been studied for decades. The impact on ND will be a drop in the bucket compared to the rest of the USA. ND has such a low population that any change skews the results, 1 death a day to 2 deaths a day is a 100% increase. ND had 4 deaths yesterday. IHME said 3 deaths, off by 1 death, so obviously we must discredit it as a complete and utter catastrophic failure. Alex leaves out that the Ferguson model predicts a case fatality rate that is 0.4% to 1.4%. without NPI and 0.2% to 0.9% with NPI, which is inline with his own thoughts and what portions of the world are actually experiencing right now. Where the Ferguson model does not apply and could not accurately predict is the rate of transmission through the population in difference scenarios. Two months into this and we still do not confidently know the rate of transmission. that was my favorite part too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cratter Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 6 hours ago, Goon said: Another giddy guy. He even wrote "reducing death" in that tweet. But then the Washington Post had an article yesterday: Government researchers changed metric to measure coronavirus drug remdesivir during clinical trial Quote Death rate was eliminated as a primary outcome measure, replaced with the time it took patients to recover. Quote Instead of counting how many people taking the drug were kept alive on ventilators or died, among other measures, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said it would judge the drug primarily on a different outcome: how long it took surviving patients to recover. So it's Zicam for coronavirus? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dynato Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 Just now, MafiaMan said: Tell that to the millions of unemployed Americans and ask for their thoughts on the matter... 1 minute ago, SIOUXFAN97 said: that was my favorite part too. Blaming models made by universities for massive unemployment is just scapegoating and will not bring jobs back. Universities have no power in enforcing regulations. They will face absolutely zero consequences. Models have been adjusted to having lower death tolls early on, yet millions remain unemployed, so it is obviously not the models dictating policy anymore. There are countless individuals in the federal and state governments that can be named responsible for the unemployment and actions will be taken against them if they are proven to have made the wrong decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cratter Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 I'm sure the company and CEO are happy to finally have a use for the failed drug. Quote We were prepared and ready for this virus," Daniel O'Day, CEO for Gilead Sciences, which originally developed the drug to treat Ebola, said Friday morning on TODAY. Remdesivir, an antiviral drug, was previously developed as a potential treatment for Ebola, but failed to show any significant benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cratter Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 Remdesivir study in China while trying to control their Covid19 outbreak. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7190303/ Quote Remdesivir was stopped early because of adverse events in 18 (12%) patients versus four (5%) patients who stopped placebo early. Quote Interpretation In this study of adult patients admitted to hospital for severe COVID-19, remdesivir was not associated with statistically significant clinical benefits. However, the numerical reduction in time to clinical improvement in those treated earlier requires confirmation in larger studies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MafiaMan Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 16 minutes ago, dynato said: Blaming models made by universities for massive unemployment is just scapegoating and will not bring jobs back. If I went to my (now former) boss with a plan to sell 74,000 widgets and a couple of weeks later provided him with a revised total sale of about 500, could I accuse him of scapegoating when he fired me? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dynato Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, MafiaMan said: If I went to my (now former) boss with a plan to sell 74,000 widgets and a couple of weeks later provided him with a revised total sale of about 500, could I accuse him of scapegoating when he fired me? If you went to your boss and said yo a couple of guys from another company said they are totes gonna buy 74,000 widgets if x,y, and z happen. A couple weeks later the company says only x and y happened, sorry bro, we can only buy 500 widgets now. Who gets the blame? You for trusting the company who has never previously bought 74,000 widgets from you? The company for over promising under selling? Or your boss, for trusting your judgement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oxbow6 Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 Has anyone trademarked the phase "We've been Fauci'd"?? MafiaMan and I could sell a lot of t-shirts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oxbow6 Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 ND with 46 new positives on 2022 tests today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFlop Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 1 hour ago, dynato said: Blaming models made by universities for massive unemployment is just scapegoating and will not bring jobs back. Universities have no power in enforcing regulations. They will face absolutely zero consequences. Models have been adjusted to having lower death tolls early on, yet millions remain unemployed, so it is obviously not the models dictating policy anymore. There are countless individuals in the federal and state governments that can be named responsible for the unemployment and actions will be taken against them if they are proven to have made the wrong decision. You mention federal and state governments.....but leave out the media.....and the extremely biased media coverage that lead to hysteria.....did far more damage than any government official did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dynato Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 1 minute ago, TheFlop said: You mention federal and state governments.....but leave out the media.....and the extremely biased media coverage that lead to hysteria.....did far more damage than any government official did. So the media and fake news influences, drives, and enforces regulation resulting in mass unemployment? Not the university models? Definitely not government officials? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFlop Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 On 5/1/2020 at 4:09 PM, dlsiouxfan said: To be fair, most I'd argue on here are Trumpists first..... essentially anything he does is OK and anyone who criticizes anything he does even the slightest is anti-Trump. Way off. The majority of the posts on here are people arguing that the quarantine is ridiculous and has been a complete overreaction save perhaps a few densely populated areas like New York where people are living closer together than people were meant to live. The media coverage has been biased and tried to lay this all at the feet of the president instead of taking a big picture view of what happened and assess blame to all parties involved. However, there are 3-4 posters on here that whine and cry Trump did this and Trump said that because they are lemmings and incapable of taking a big picture view. Media says orange man bad ...orange man must be bad. Even amongst Trump supporters.....you aren't going to find alot of people that like his constant tweets and his poor public speaking skills. It is fair to question whether Trump was a week late...a week early....whatever.....but open up your eyes and look at the 800lb elephant in the room that once ever 2-3 years SE Asia slings one of these respiratory diseases our way that is the equivalent of a bad flu.....and if the US doesn't have the political will to deal with the root issue....it will result in some extra deaths per year in the US 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UND1983 Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, dynato said: So the media and fake news influences, drives, and enforces regulation resulting in mass unemployment? Not the university models? Definitely not government officials? If fishwraps like Wapo and NYT started writing articles about all the positives happening with the virus would it change the way people look at it? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFlop Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 Just now, UND1983 said: If fishwraps like Wapo and NYT started writing articles about all the positives happening with the virus would it change the way people look at it? Correct.......because when you get big media puting out story after story about how the world is coming to an end......more and more people start to buy in which puts pressure on even common sense governor's to hop on the quarantine wagon. The media's constant negative reporting is in effect going down the road of mind control of the feeble minded....which in the US is a considerable portion of the people that watch the mainstream news. Yes Fox news on the right.........but basically all the rest on the left. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dynato Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 1 minute ago, UND1983 said: If fishwraps like Wapo and NYT started writing articles about all the positives happening with the virus would it change the way people look at it? If any main stream media started writing positive articles sentiment might change. If you know of positive news, I encourage you again to be sharing it. And no, positive news isn't that models are garbage or your most hated fishwrap bias media was catastrophically wrong. 10 minutes ago, TheFlop said: Way off. The majority of the posts on here are people arguing that the quarantine is ridiculous and has been a complete overreaction save perhaps a few densely populated areas like New York where people are living closer together than people were meant to live. The media coverage has been biased and tried to lay this all at the feet of the president instead of taking a big picture view of what happened and assess blame to all parties involved. However, there are 3-4 posters on here that whine and cry Trump did this and Trump said that because they are lemmings and incapable of taking a big picture view. Media says orange man bad ...orange man must be bad. Even amongst Trump supporters.....you aren't going to find alot of people that like his constant tweets and his poor public speaking skills. It is fair to question whether Trump was a week late...a week early....whatever.....but open up your eyes and look at the 800lb elephant in the room that once ever 2-3 years SE Asia slings one of the respiratory diseases our way that is the equivalent of a bad flu.....and if the US doesn't have the political will to deal with the root issue....it will result in some extra deaths per year in the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oxbow6 Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 57 minutes ago, dynato said: If any main stream media started writing positive articles sentiment might change. If you know of positive news, I encourage you again to be sharing it. And no, positive news isn't that models are garbage or your most hated fishwrap bias media was catastrophically wrong. Could probably find a tweet from 2012 from someone stating the $98M spent on each Suter and Parise was a bargain too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UND1983 Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 22 minutes ago, dynato said: If any main stream media started writing positive articles sentiment might change. If you know of positive news, I encourage you again to be sharing it. And no, positive news isn't that models are garbage or your most hated fishwrap bias media was catastrophically wrong. What does that tweet have to do with anything? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiouxFan100 Posted May 2, 2020 Share Posted May 2, 2020 Doesn’t a person just want to get it and get over it and get on with life? Assuming you get over it and live that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNDlaw80 Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 3 hours ago, TheFlop said: You mention federal and state governments.....but leave out the media.....and the extremely biased media coverage that lead to hysteria.....did far more damage than any government official did. “Biased mainstream media” and “fake news” are political buzzwords to describe left-leaning outlets; but Fox News is by far the most mainstream and influential outlet today. Fox garners roughly the same amount of viewers as all other cable networks combined. More importantly, most Americans get news from social media.....meaning people are more apt to seek out news from outlets that conform to their preconceived worldviews. Today's media doesn't change minds, it reinforces confirmation biases. Putting the blame on anything other than our government's (federal/state/republican/democrat) $hitshow of a response is a cop out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dynato Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 2 hours ago, Oxbow6 said: Could probably find a tweet from 2012 from someone stating the $98M spent on each Suter and Parise was a bargain too. And the GM who made the decision was let go of his job 6 years later. 2 hours ago, UND1983 said: What does that tweet have to do with anything? You are right, there is no way a tweet from some dude on twitter is remotely relevant to sentiment on corona, right? It obviously has nothing to do with the thought process behind our government on quarantines amidst a so-called widespread pandemic. It definitely does not represent that contradictions, sensationalism, over-reaction, and bias are identical across the party lines and the media they consume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Sicatoka Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 I lost my mother to Alzheimer’s during this pandemic. I had a hospice exception to be with her in her care facility until she died. (And I believe those exceptions went away shortly after.) We lose 120,000 Americans annually to Alzheimer’s. And we know less about cause, prevention, and cure. You might catch this virus. It might kill you. If you have Alzheimer’s, it will kill you. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UND1983 Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 24 minutes ago, dynato said: And the GM who made the decision was let go of his job 6 years later. You are right, there is no way a tweet from some dude on twitter is remotely relevant to sentiment on corona, right? It obviously has nothing to do with the thought process behind our government on quarantines amidst a so-called widespread pandemic. It definitely does not represent that contradictions, sensationalism, over-reaction, and bias are identical across the party lines and the media they consume. Wut? It was from 2014. Is this a cry for help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UND1983 Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 I am starting to wonder why Trump is brought up at all lately, he is pretty much doing what the Coronasistas want, right? Allowing the Governors to do their job while supporting them as needed. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dynato Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 1 minute ago, UND1983 said: Wut? It was from 2014. Is this a cry for help? Enlighten me how everything I said is irrelevant and does not to apply to this pandemic just because it was from 2014, a single presidency ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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