SIOUXFAN97 Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 1 minute ago, iluvdebbies said: Virginia has the date to beat, June 10. didn't see that one....june 11th is the mark now? just wondering when someone will jump right to dec 31st? 1
UNDBIZ Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 We're gonna take a little breather while everybody calms down and refreshes themselves with the forum guidelines. Nonpolitical conversation can continue here in a few hours.
bison73 Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 17 hours ago, dynato said: I will say the problem with mitigation efforts are that they disproportionately impact non-major cities/ small communities like Grand Forks. The average major city has shut down at around 25 cases. ND communities had single digit cases/ 0 cases before essentially shutting down, despite us being remote and sparsely populated. Grand Forks still only has 11 cases that we know of. Unfortunately, we won't know the reduction of deaths resulting from these extreme measures, which makes it harder for our community to justify and agree with. However, it is clear that once it gets a foothold on a community, it is incredibly difficult to stop its growth. 60,0000 people dying from flu every year equates to 165 people dying a day (60,000/365=165). COVID in it's current stage has death rate of 3.7% in america, making it 37 times deadlier than the standard flu. What this means is that if COVID spreads with the same intensity as the flu (which we know it does), that there is a potential of (60,000*37) = 2.2 million people dying with no mitigation efforts. COVID has killed over 1900 people each of the past three days. Keep in mind, this is with social distancing and sheltering at home efforts in most states. This is without yet peak death rates/without "containing" the virus. This makes it 13 more times as deadly as the flu in this current stage without having the complete numbers. This means 780,000 could die this year if the curve is not flattened as a result from not taking it seriously enough. This would make it the highest cause of death in america, the equivalent of 1 in 5 deaths in america being COVID. For anyone wanting to dispute the death toll, our president said that he trusts the reported numbers and believes they are pretty accurate. Dr. Fauci also backs this up and shoots down claims of those stating the death toll is inflated. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/coronavirus-conspiracy-theory-death-overcount-anthony-fauci. Extra Info for anyone curious: Below is the most recent covid death rate by age group.https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ The CDC has already said that the death rate is going to be ---much much much lower. IOW they over kicked their coverage. Dr. Fauci was even walking back the predictions today and said the models were way off.
MafiaMan Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 22 minutes ago, bison73 said: The CDC has already said that the death rate is going to be ---much much much lower. IOW they over kicked their coverage. Dr. Fauci was even walking back the predictions today and said the models were way off. Are we Italy yet? I’ve been told it’s any second now. And since I don’t have a job anymore, I have a lot of time to kill waiting.
dynato Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, bison73 said: The CDC has already said that the death rate is going to be ---much much much lower. IOW they over kicked their coverage. Dr. Fauci was even walking back the predictions today and said the models were way off. In the future, sure, the death rate is likely to be a magnitude above the flu, probably in the range of 0.1% to 0.5% mortality rate. This will come with time as we studying of the virus, provide vaccinations, proper isolation and treatment, and heard immunity. As of right now, we have absolutely none of that, so the world is resorting to social distancing, sheltering in place, and quarantine. With these measures, the mortality rate is much, much higher. In the USA It has progressed from being 1.7% to 3.7% mortality rate in the past two weeks alone, with no resigns of receding. This will be continue to be the death rate in the USA until a better response can be put together. Realistically, models/projections/predictions have become inaccurate after about two days of new data. So it is a good thing medical professionals like Dr. Fauci are revisiting them. However, enough changes to the predictions have happened to where nobody really trusts the numbers anyway.
dynato Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 Our president appears to be more on the side of sheltering at home than opening up the economy now. He said that while he has the power to dictate longer isolation periods, he is going to let governors of individual states make that decision for what they assume is best for their state. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/10/trump-says-hes-not-going-to-reopen-economy-until-we-know-this-country-is-going-to-be-healthy.html
southpaw Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 14 hours ago, MafiaMan said: Are we Italy yet? I’ve been told it’s any second now. And since I don’t have a job anymore, I have a lot of time to kill waiting. The US passed Italy today for total deaths from Covid 19, so no, we're not Italy. We're #1! If New York was a country, it would have the 6 most deaths in the world.
southpaw Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 20 hours ago, Nodak78 said: supplies are tight but no substantiated claims of not being supplied. Hospital workers are literally wearing garbage bags because there's not enough PPEs. That's the definition of not being supplied. Colorado ordered 500 ventilators that the feds seized. The state recieved just 20% of those. The government is taking supplies from the states.
The Sicatoka Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 We know the downturn in the farm economy was causing a most disturbing trend of suicide among farmers. See: https://www.google.com/search?q=farm+economy+suicide&rlz=1C1GCEA_enUS891US891&oq=farm+economy+suicide&aqs=chrome..69i57j33.4141j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 Many businesses face and will face the similar or worse economic problems during this shutdown. How do we know when the second order economic impact (suicide) equals the direct viral death impact. It's literally a life and death decision either way. 1
The Sicatoka Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 "All models are wrong, but some are useful." - George E. P. Box 3
Oxbow6 Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 14 minutes ago, The Sicatoka said: We know the downturn in the farm economy was causing a most disturbing trend of suicide among farmers. See: https://www.google.com/search?q=farm+economy+suicide&rlz=1C1GCEA_enUS891US891&oq=farm+economy+suicide&aqs=chrome..69i57j33.4141j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 Many businesses face and will face the similar or worse economic problems during this shutdown. How do we know when the second order economic impact (suicide) equals the direct viral death impact. It's literally a life and death decision either way. All those people need is "proper guidance" to avoid being a statistic as some have pointed out here. 1
The Sicatoka Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 6 minutes ago, keikla said: But it doesnt really matter if you have a surplus of 50+ ventilators when you don't have the staff to run them or care for those patients. That was going to be my question.
Oxbow6 Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 Just giving some perspective and if you're a fan of the WHO here's your global numbers as of 10 minutes ago. I'll spare you the deaths totals from communicable diseases and the number of abortions this year. Coronavirus deaths as reported is 107000 globally. UNICEF reports 2.1M kids under the age of 5 have died this year.
southpaw Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 It's a good thing this is over and everyone's healthy. At the start of this thread you said the flu is more of a concern, when was the last time the flu killed more than 1,900 people in the US for 5 consecutive days? Sicatoka told us to look at the numbers because the rate of death for those under 60 was so much worse for the flu (hint, it's not). It's good we can see all the posts from when this thread started to see how epically wrong people have been.
UND1983 Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, southpaw said: It's a good thing this is over and everyone's healthy. At the start of this thread you said the flu is more of a concern, when was the last time the flu killed more than 1,900 people in the US for 5 consecutive days? Sicatoka told us to look at the numbers because the rate of death for those under 60 was so much worse for the flu (hint, it's not). It's good we can see all the posts from when this thread started to see how epically wrong people have been. Do you want this to get as bad as the models say it's going to and to drag out into the fall? Interested in your angle.
Nodak78 Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, southpaw said: It's a good thing this is over and everyone's healthy. At the start of this thread you said the flu is more of a concern, when was the last time the flu killed more than 1,900 people in the US for 5 consecutive days? Sicatoka told us to look at the numbers because the rate of death for those under 60 was so much worse for the flu (hint, it's not). It's good we can see all the posts from when this thread started to see how epically wrong people have been. Start with garbage bags. 2
Oxbow6 Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, southpaw said: It's a good thing this is over and everyone's healthy. At the start of this thread you said the flu is more of a concern, when was the last time the flu killed more than 1,900 people in the US for 5 consecutive days? Sicatoka told us to look at the numbers because the rate of death for those under 60 was so much worse for the flu (hint, it's not). It's good we can see all the posts from when this thread started to see how epically wrong people have been. On behalf of the 30M+ that will be unemployed in the next 3-4 weeks and the every changing models that got us into this mess please accept my/our apologies. 1
southpaw Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said: On behalf of the 30M+ that will be unemployed in the next 3-4 weeks and the every changing models that got us into this mess please accept my/our apologies. It's shocking that the models have changed a couple of weeks after social distancing was enacted. Fyi, your Aids/HIV mortality rate is still lower than Covid.
Nodak78 Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 Just now, southpaw said: It's shocking that the models have changed a couple of weeks after social distancing was enacted. GIGO 1
UND1983 Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 1 minute ago, southpaw said: It's shocking that the models have changed a couple of weeks after social distancing was enacted. How long do you propose we social distance? It's also shocking they would make models based on doing nothing and actually promote them to the sheep. 3
Oxbow6 Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 13 minutes ago, southpaw said: It's shocking that the models have changed a couple of weeks after social distancing was enacted. Fyi, your Aids/HIV mortality rate is still lower than Covid. Yup........ 2.2M potential deaths down to around 60K all in the name of social distancing??? In some states they're close to bringing in the armed guard and tanks to make sure family can't even visit family if they want. You do realize even with FDA approved treatment options people still are dying from AIDS?
MafiaMan Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 1 hour ago, southpaw said: It's shocking that the models have changed a couple of weeks after social distancing was enacted. You know what else is shocking? My severance package from Forum Communications. 3
Oxbow6 Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 2 hours ago, keikla said: I haven't followed the projections closely, because I don't have time for that. But seeing how fast this thing can spread plus adding in extra deaths for a completely overwhelmed healthcare system if social distancing were removed, and the difference in those numbers is a very real possibility. You are a in completely unique and unfortunate situation when compared to a vast majority of healthcare systems in the nation. Mayo just predicted a $3B loss through year end. Cutting staff hours and salaries....on all levels. Ancillary, nurses, therapists, doctots. Same holds true in our area and throughout most of the nation. Systems are awaiting this "surge". Lots of hospitals beds running at 20-40% capacity just waiting. Lots of unattended medical needs not being met. Know your front line work in the most impacted area in this country is something most can't even imagine. Thank you. 3
Kab Posted April 11, 2020 Posted April 11, 2020 Take a dentist, eye Dr. or physical therapist, these are basically shut down because you can’t be that close to people i can see where patients will be getting a rapid test before being worked on in the future is it possible to train dogs to sniff out this virus?
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