UNDBIZ Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 34 minutes ago, jdub27 said: COVID-19 PATIENT CALCULUS: Health departments across Ohio now will include people who show symptoms of having contracting the coronavirus but who have not been tested, said Michael Dohn, medical director, Public Health - Dayton & Montgomery County. The change in how patients will be counted doesn’t mean things are worse, he said, but it means health care professionals will get a better count of who is sick and has COVID-19, whether confirmed by a test or not. Probably important to note why that is being done: While the state is tracking confirmed cases, it’s important to note that due to the limited amount of testing available the number of confirmed cases is not a true reflection of actual cases in the state. This is all normal and what is done for other illnesses/viruses as well. The WHO/CDC can't go back and examine the data if it isn't there. Numbers are adjusted up and down regularly after the fact when more information is known. It is medical experts making the determination, not some conspiracy theorist. Hmm, in North Dakota 3% of tested patients are positive for covid 19. They're only supposed to be testing people with symptoms indicative of covid 19. If we start just saying everybody with a sore throat and a fever has covid 19, that seems inappropriate to me. Now if one household member tests positive and the others are showing symptoms, I'm fine with not wasting a test on them and just adding them to the list. Hopefully that's what's actually happening and they just didn't go into the details. 1
UND1983 Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, dlsiouxfan said: So using that methodology, you'd assume the flu season is roughly 13 weeks long which amounts to around 691 deaths a day. 799 died in New York City alone yesterday. One can only imagine what that would mean in terms of daily deaths if this disease was a as widespread as the flu. Rural Americans are kidding themselves if they think this won't impact them. A widespread outbreak would overwhelm rural health care systems quickly and since urban healthcare systems would already be overwhelmed or on the brink of being overwhelmed there will be no backup valves to handle critical care patients when the limited ICU beds available to rural hospitals are full. Why would there be a wide spread outbreak in a rural area?
UNDBIZ Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 Just now, UND1983 said: Why would there be a wide spread outbreak in a rural area? Someone coughed on the potato salad at the church potluck. 1
Oxbow6 Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 59 minutes ago, UNDBIZ said: Hmm, in North Dakota 3% of tested patients are positive for covid 19. They're only supposed to be testing people with symptoms indicative of covid 19. If we start just saying everybody with a sore throat and a fever has covid 19, that seems inappropriate to me. Now if one household member tests positive and the others are showing symptoms, I'm fine with not wasting a test on them and just adding them to the list. Hopefully that's what's actually happening and they just didn't go into the details. From a published article from the Marshfield (WI) Clinic. A system I am very familiar with. "Etiologically specific" doesn't encompass "probable" or "presumed". To normally label the cause of death based on "probable" or "presumed" is lazy and misleading. But if it's required to make the COVID numbers work so be it. 1
jdub27 Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 1 hour ago, UNDBIZ said: Hmm, in North Dakota 3% of tested patients are positive for covid 19. They're only supposed to be testing people with symptoms indicative of covid 19. If we start just saying everybody with a sore throat and a fever has covid 19, that seems inappropriate to me. Now if one household member tests positive and the others are showing symptoms, I'm fine with not wasting a test on them and just adding them to the list. Hopefully that's what's actually happening and they just didn't go into the details. I would assume that is accurate. Per the CDC guidelines (for at least the death causes portion), there does have to be a logical reason to link it along with showing symptoms. I would assume this would be the same. In regards to Oxbow's quote, I previously showed the actual form and the guidelines that lays out how the death forms are to be filled out. Strange that the CDC specifically addresses and is fine with what he calls "lazy and misleading". It is almost like they trust the medical professionals assessing the situation to use their professional judgement. Oh, and it is how they have filled out forms, well before COVID-19 was a thing because it gives them the ability to go back and study and understand the numbers, along as adjust up or down accordingly once they have a better understanding of the disease. But I'm sure they are all in it, so I guess it makes sense. 3
dynato Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 2 hours ago, Nodak78 said: 50% of all deaths in the USA are located in NY, NJ and Michigan. 25% of the deaths in USA are located in NYC. How in the hell can you social distance in NYC when people are living in sleeping rooms. I could be wrong but the model doesn't compare the density will people living on top of each other vs the population in the vast part of the USA. Covid is hitting very specific cities and states hard. What this goes to show is that in cities where improper measures take place, COVID can get out of control very fast. Majority of major cities have put control measures in place at 25 cases. Yet they still top the list in deaths. It's true that the flu does not spread through our communities as harshly as it does most states, so we are fairly protected based on that. However, it would be naive to think we are stronger and better equipped to handle a pandemic that is ravaging states larger than us with better federal support. 1 hour ago, TheFlop said: C'mon, you present some good facts but spreading 60,000 flu deaths over the course of 365 days is misleading. A more accurate daily count would be spreading those deaths over the actual flu season (i.e. Dec-March or whatever the official season is). True. But I was comparing yearly totals based on the current numbers, which gets helps get rid of some of the bias separating the flu/covid into seasonal/weekly deaths. Flu season: October through March Average deaths per day: 330 Average deaths per day of flu outside of march: 30 Deaths per day to COVID, in April, if not mitigated further: 1900 So it is 5 times as deadly as the flu while the flu is in season, but 60 times deadlier than the flu out of season. Easier just to average them both out to a year so it is a one to one comparison.
Oxbow6 Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 18 minutes ago, jdub27 said: I would assume that is accurate. Per the CDC guidelines (for at least the death causes portion), there does have to be a logical reason to link it along with showing symptoms. I would assume this would be the same. In regards to Oxbow's quote, I previously showed the actual form and the guidelines that lays out how the death forms are to be filled out. Strange that the CDC specifically addresses and is fine with what he calls "lazy and misleading". It is almost like they trust the medical professionals assessing the situation to use their professional judgement. Oh, and it is how they have filled out forms, well before COVID-19 was a thing because it gives them the ability to go back and study and understand the numbers, along as adjust up or down accordingly once they have a better understanding of the disease. But I'm sure they are all in it, so I guess it makes sense. Etiology is a cause. Judgment is a sensible conclusion. IMO the death total will be overestimated due to conclusions....not actual cause. On the topic of sensible conclusions I can't wait to heard from Fauci and Birx today........
dlsiouxfan Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 1 hour ago, UND1983 said: Why would there be a wide spread outbreak in a rural area? Widespread is a relative term.... with a 15% hospitalization rate it wouldn't take much more than an outbreak of 500 active cases to overwhelm a rural hospital with 75 hospitalizations. 1
Oxbow6 Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, dynato said: Covid is hitting very specific cities and states hard. What this goes to show is that in cities where improper measures take place, COVID can get out of control very fast. Majority of major cities have put control measures in place at 25 cases. Yet they still top the list in deaths. It's true that the flu does not spread through our communities as harshly as it does most states, so we are fairly protected based on that. However, it would be naive to think we are stronger and better equipped to handle a pandemic that is ravaging states larger than us with better federal support. True. But I was comparing yearly totals based on the current numbers, which gets helps get rid of some of the bias separating the flu/covid into seasonal/weekly deaths. Flu season: October through March Average deaths per day: 330 Average deaths per day of flu outside of march: 30 Deaths per day to COVID, in April, if not mitigated further: 1900 So it is 5 times as deadly as the flu while the flu is in season, but 60 times deadlier than the flu out of season. Easier just to average them both out to a year so it is a one to one comparison. Completely misleading. The coronavirus "season" started in this country around 12 weeks ago which puts the average around 220 deaths per day. I'm sure that average will unfortunately climb as time goes on.
dynato Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said: Etiology is a cause. Judgment is a sensible conclusion. IMO the death total will be overestimated due to conclusions....not actual cause. On the topic of sensible conclusions I can't wait to heard from Fauci and Birx today........ After hurricane katrina, congress passed a bill that offered guidelines for assessing true death tolls for disasters. They subjected it to two categories, direct and indirect deaths. Direct covid death would likely be you showed symptoms and died in the hospital. Indirect covid death would be dying as a result of not getting the necessary care due to COVID. IE, you dying as a result of getting out of surgery and you do not have the opportunity to be put on a ventilator because every ventilator has a COVID patient on it. In the heat of the moment, it would be reasonable to assume deaths are inflated on the direct side. However, medical professionals are very about documenting everything so that down the road the numbers can be adjusted as necessary. With regards to how deaths are being counted, Dr. Fauci said: "I think there is more of a chance of missing some that are really coronavirus deaths that are not being counted,” Fauci told NBC. “But I don’t think that number is significant enough to really substantially modify the trends that we are seeing, at all.” With regards to the death count President Trump said: "pretty accurate on the death count"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/coronavirus-conspiracy-theory-death-overcount-anthony-fauci
Nodak78 Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 19 minutes ago, dynato said: Covid is hitting very specific cities and states hard. What this goes to show is that in cities where improper measures take place, COVID can get out of control very fast. Majority of major cities have put control measures in place at 25 cases. Yet they still top the list in deaths. It's true that the flu does not spread through our communities as harshly as it does most states, so we are fairly protected based on that. However, it would be naive to think we are stronger and better equipped to handle a pandemic that is ravaging states larger than us with better federal support. My point is the model used is BS. To compare NY, NJ with Midwest is not reliable. The models predicts 7 deaths today in ND. A total of 6 total so far. W/o Federal support in ND for the most part. 1
Oxbow6 Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, dynato said: After hurricane katrina, congress passed a bill that offered guidelines for assessing true death tolls for disasters. They subjected it to two categories, direct and indirect deaths. Direct covid death would likely be you showed symptoms and died in the hospital. Indirect covid death would be dying as a result of not getting the necessary care due to COVID. IE, you dying as a result of getting out of surgery and you do not have the opportunity to be put on a ventilator because every ventilator has a COVID patient on it. In the heat of the moment, it would be reasonable to assume deaths are inflated on the direct side. However, medical professionals are very about documenting everything so that down the road the numbers can be adjusted as necessary. With regards to how deaths are being counted, Dr. Fauci said: "I think there is more of a chance of missing some that are really coronavirus deaths that are not being counted,” Fauci told NBC. “But I don’t think that number is significant enough to really substantially modify the trends that we are seeing, at all.” With regards to the death count President Trump said: "pretty accurate on the death count"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/coronavirus-conspiracy-theory-death-overcount-anthony-fauci Once this blows over do you think the indirect deaths will out number the direct? The death rate of suicide or a drug OD death is 100%.
Nodak78 Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said: Once this blows over do you think the indirect deaths will out number the direct? The death rate of suicide or a drug OD death is 100%. Suicide could be the fault of NRA!
dynato Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 Just now, Oxbow6 said: Completely misleading. The coronavirus "season" started in this country around 12 weeks ago which puts the average around 220 deaths per day. I'm sure that average will unfortunately climb as time goes on. I believe you are thinking about it backwards. Comparing it to day one, just as projecting outward from day one data (which you can appreciate), is just silly and inflates the numbers in each direction. What we need to look at what we know right now, which is that this virus has a death rate 37 times greater than the flu in the USA. We know it will continue to kill 1900 people a day without any additional efforts to slow it down. Thus, it is reasonable to conclude that the current average deaths per day is 1900. No projections. No Modeling. This is the number for today/this week. Over time, we can expect this number to trend way downward once proper measures are taken to get it under control. Unless you have reasonably conclusive evidence that those darn medical professionals are getting greedy and inflating numbers.
Oxbow6 Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, dynato said: I believe you are thinking about it backwards. Comparing it to day one, just as projecting outward from day one data (which you can appreciate), is just silly and inflates the numbers in each direction. What we need to look at what we know right now, which is that this virus has a death rate 37 times greater than the flu in the USA. We know it will continue to kill 1900 people a day without any additional efforts to slow it down. Thus, it is reasonable to conclude that the current average deaths per day is 1900. No projections. No Modeling. This is the number for today/this week. Over time, we can expect this number to trend way downward once proper measures are taken to get it under control. Unless you have reasonably conclusive evidence that those darn medical professionals are getting greedy and inflating numbers. We have 18K deaths over 12 weeks. We have 17M unemployed over 3 weeks. Those are concrete numbers. 2
dynato Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said: Once this blows over do you think the indirect deaths will out number the direct? The death rate of suicide or a drug OD death is 100%. Both indirect and direct causes of deaths add up to the total count. Just as how if you died as a result of not getting medical care during a natural disaster, the natural disaster played a role in your death. Without the natural disaster, you likely would not have died. I doubt that the indirect deaths will ever outpace the direct deaths though. The purpose of dividing them into two categories is for planning for the future. Most indirect deaths would be considered preventable with proper guidance.
Cratter Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 Minnesota released more detailed estimates of their model this morning. They have a chart with Mortality and 20,000 under it. Is it ok to infer that's their best estimate? https://mn.gov/covid19/data/modeling.jsp 2
Oxbow6 Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 16 minutes ago, dynato said: Both indirect and direct causes of deaths add up to the total count. Just as how if you died as a result of not getting medical care during a natural disaster, the natural disaster played a role in your death. Without the natural disaster, you likely would not have died. I doubt that the indirect deaths will ever outpace the direct deaths though. The purpose of dividing them into two categories is for planning for the future. Most indirect deaths would be considered preventable with proper guidance. Really.....in a normal year around 115K die from suicides and drug ODs. Plus on average 2.5% of deaths in US are alcohol related. Got it. Collateral damage. What's "proper guidance" weeks or months from now when millions have lost everything?
UNDlaw80 Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 Speaking of death count....... It's ironic how people criticize Covid reporting methods, yet continuously cite flu mortality rates; and have done so since day 1. Interestingly, influenza need not be listed on a death certificate for it to be counted as an official cause of death by the CDC. Interesting read https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm
dynato Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Oxbow6 said: We have 18K deaths over 12 weeks. We have 17M unemployed over 3 weeks. Those are concrete numbers. In the past two weeks, 14 days, we have had 17K deaths. In the past five days, we have had 9K deaths. 17M unemployment is part of a larger problem than COVID and an entirely new discussion. Our country was heading towards a recession before COVID, as reflected by the feds lowering interest rates and pumping hundreds of billions into money markets before the first case of corona hit US soil. With the 4 trillion dollars in bailouts to corporations, why is it that companies were not able to keep any of these people on payroll?
dynato Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 21 minutes ago, Cratter said: Minnesota released more detailed estimates of their model this morning. They have a chart with Mortality and 20,000 under it. Is it ok to infer that's their best estimate? https://mn.gov/covid19/data/modeling.jsp That is a fairly good estimate for the information that we have. The range is still absurd, 20,000 plus or minus 60%. This adds in all the expected deaths through August too. Basically, if you take the situation in New York and apply it just to the twin cities and metro area. Pretty reasonably assumptions tbh.
UND1983 Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 Everyone who lost your job - you are collateral damage to an unknown that will be a known very shortly. Sorry but we couldn't take the chance of this unknown doing something, even though it's 2020 and we are the most advanced country in the world. Sorry again.
Oxbow6 Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, dynato said: That is a fairly good estimate for the information that we have. The range is still absurd, 20,000 plus or minus 60%. This adds in all the expected deaths through August too. Basically, if you take the situation in New York and apply it just to the twin cities and metro area. Pretty reasonably assumptions tbh. So again the "experts" have 60k+ deaths nationwide by 8/4 and MN will have a third of that total???
Nodak78 Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 13 minutes ago, dynato said: In the past two weeks, 14 days, we have had 17K deaths. In the past five days, we have had 9K deaths. 17M unemployment is part of a larger problem than COVID and an entirely new discussion. Our country was heading towards a recession before COVID, as reflected by the feds lowering interest rates and pumping hundreds of billions into money markets before the first case of corona hit US soil. With the 4 trillion dollars in bailouts to corporations, why is it that companies were not able to keep any of these people on payroll? Recession my rearend. All that you mentioned is related to Covid. 1
SIOUXFAN97 Posted April 10, 2020 Posted April 10, 2020 22 minutes ago, dynato said: In the past two weeks, 14 days, we have had 17K deaths. In the past five days, we have had 9K deaths. 17M unemployment is part of a larger problem than COVID and an entirely new discussion. Our country was heading towards a recession before COVID, as reflected by the feds lowering interest rates and pumping hundreds of billions into money markets before the first case of corona hit US soil. With the 4 trillion dollars in bailouts to corporations, why is it that companies were not able to keep any of these people on payroll? it's official...u have tds...took a while to show but you got it bad..time to quarantine with the other orange man bad people. 2
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