jimdahl Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 I wrote a little more about what UND needs here: A more in-depth look at the at-large chances for teams on the bubble #13 UND makes the tournament in 42% of scenarios in which it wins 1 game and .5% of scenarios in which it has no wins (a tie in the consolation game seems to be required). Because the NCHC has a consolation game, UND could exit the tournament with one win either by winning then losing, or by losing then winning. The two have slightly different outlooks. If UND wins its first game, it makes the tournament in about 46% of scenarios in which it loses the championship game. Most useful to UND in this situation seems to be #12 Minnesota State, #16 Cornell, #15 Colgate, and #11 Michigan losing (note that #14 Vermont is not playing). If UND loses its first game, it makes the tournament in about .5% of scenarios in which it ties the consolation game or about 36% of scenarios in which it wins the consolation game. Most useful to UND in this situation seems to be #17 New Hampshire, #21 Ohio State, #16 Cornell, and #15 Colgate losing (note again that #14 Vermont is not playing). North Dakota, like all teams featured in this article, is also helped by autobids going to highly ranked teams as described above. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siouxperfan7 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Can anyone remember the last time that there has been this much uncertainty about making the tournament? Typically the Pairwise discussion is determining what seed we will be and where we are going to play. 2001-2002 season we did not even make it to the Final 5. That season was a disaster so everyone knew that we werent making the playoffs. That says a lot about where this program is currently at. That we expect to make the playoffs every year...and we typically do. Been awhile since this program has been on the ropes and fighting for their playoff lives going into the last weekend of the season! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fargosioux Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Can anyone remember the last time that there has been this much uncertainty about making the tournament? Typically the Pairwise discussion is determining what seed we will be and where we are going to play. 2001-2002 season we did not even make it to the Final 5. That season was a disaster so everyone knew that we werent making the playoffs. That says a lot about where this program is currently at. That we expect to make the playoffs every year...and we typically do. Been awhile since this program has been on the ropes and fighting for their playoff lives going into the last weekend of the season! In 2012, there was actually a chance we'd miss the NCAA tournament heading into the Final Five. We came out of the weekend with a #1 seed. The pairwise can be pretty volatile this time of year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxweet Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 In 2012, there was actually a chance we'd miss the NCAA tournament heading into the Final Five. We came out of the weekend with a #1 seed. The pairwise can be pretty volatile this time of year. I think 2010 was the same way, we didn't get a number one seed but ended up with a 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sprig Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 the win instead of tie vs Bermidgchee would have moved UND to 11 still not a lock. Same result as if only the SLU loss where flipped and as if the BU tie was flipped its the combination of those three games flipping would land UND 7th and a lock. Combining those three with beating CC in the playoffs on Saturday puts UND 4th overall tied for 3rd the ability to CLOSE THE DEAL make all the difference of note UNOs loss to Bently also cost UND a comparison Turn around several losses to really bad non con teams by other NCHC teams and I'd bet the Sioux would be a lock with their current record. The whole league's bad non con losses caused this mess. Shows how important those early non con games are to the league as a whole. If you schedule cupcakes, you better not lose. Odd how so many bubble teams are dependent on a Sioux loss or two to make the tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snake Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Turn around several losses to really bad non con teams by other NCHC teams and I'd bet the Sioux would be a lock with their current record. The whole league's bad non con losses caused this mess. Shows how important those early non con games are to the league as a whole. If you schedule cupcakes, you better not lose. ^ YUP! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxweet Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 the win instead of tie vs Bermidgchee would have moved UND to 11 still not a lock. Same result as if only the SLU loss where flipped and as if the BU tie was flipped its the combination of those three games flipping would land UND 7th and a lock. Combining those three with beating CC in the playoffs on Saturday puts UND 4th overall tied for 3rd the ability to CLOSE THE DEAL make all the difference of note UNOs loss to Bently also cost UND a comparison if you are referring to the UND-Bentley comparison. UND still wins it. it is tie as UND has a higher RPI but Bentley wins the common opp category. UND actually wins the comparison because the higher RPI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scpa0305 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Sorry as I know this has been posted here more than once, however who do I need to cool this weekend? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNDBIZ Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Sorry as I know this has been posted here more than once, however who do I need to cool this weekend? All WCHA teams not named Ferris (especially Mankato), Cornell, Colgate, New Hampshire, all B1G teams not named Minnesota or Wisconsin (especially Michigan), and obviously all NCHC teams not named North Dakota. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scpa0305 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 All WCHA teams not named Ferris (especially Mankato), Cornell, Colgate, New Hampshire, all B1G teams not named Minnesota or Wisconsin (especially Michigan), and obviously all NCHC teams not named North Dakota. Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sioux2007 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 What regional would UND be heading to if they win this weekend? Or is it too early to say....with so many possible outcomes yet to come this weekend. Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yzerman19 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 What regional would UND be heading to if they win this weekend? Or is it too early to say....with so many possible outcomes yet to come this weekend. Thoughts? Way too many potential outcomes to predict that accurately. If the season ended today, we'd be out in Cincinatti playing Ferris in round 1 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yzerman19 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 If season ended today, here is my prediction: In St. Paul #1 MN vs #16 AHA champion #8 Notre Dame vs #10 SCSU In Worcester #2 BC vs #15 Colgate #7 Lowell vs #11 Michigan In Connecticut #3 Union vs #14 Vermont #6 Quinnipiac vs #9 Providence In Cincinatti #4 Ferris vs #13 UND #5 WI vs #12 Mankato This is actually kid of a dream for the NC$$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxweet Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 What regional would UND be heading to if they win this weekend? Or is it too early to say....with so many possible outcomes yet to come this weekend. Thoughts? If UND wins the NCHC there is an outside chance they could end up in st. paul as a three seed. If they only win once this weekend and end up as a four seed I'm guessing Cincy or Bridgeport. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InHeavenThereIsNoBeer Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 If UND wins the NCHC there is an outside chance they could end up in st. paul as a three seed. If they only win once this weekend and end up as a four seed I'm guessing Cincy or Bridgeport. I've even done a scenario where they end up as a 3 seed with only 1 win this weekend. That scenario would also lock UND in to a tournament berth with just a win vs. Miami, regardless if they win the Championship game. If that happens, I would be so happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackheart Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 If UND wins only one game this weekend, does it really matter from a Pairwise perspective which game they win? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InHeavenThereIsNoBeer Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 If UND wins only one game this weekend, does it really matter from a Pairwise perspective which game they win? It may in certain scenarios but I've been able to get them in with winning either game in most of mine. Key games I've found to root for are QU beating Colgate, Union beating Cornell, Bowling Green beating MSU-Mankato, Penn State beating Michigan, Providence beating New Hampshire, & Ferris State beating Alaska-Anchorage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 If UND wins only one game this weekend, does it really matter from a Pairwise perspective which game they win? I'm finding that they make it in slightly more scenarios in which they win the first game than the second. It's not huge, though (like a 10% difference). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxfaninseattle Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Sioux move up to 11 with Michigan loss!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 Sioux move up to 11 with Michigan loss!! Now we just need Penn St and OSU to lose tomorrow. Help UND or not, I'm pretty sure I can't cheer for Wisconsin over Penn St or Minnesota over OSU. We'll just need to make it some other way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InHeavenThereIsNoBeer Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Now we just need Penn St and OSU to lose tomorrow. Help UND or not, I'm pretty sure I can't cheer for Wisconsin over Penn St or Minnesota over OSU. We'll just need to make it some other way Agreed, just going to have to win the NCHC! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sodbuster Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Agreed, just going to have to win the NCHC! I can "cheer" for them (Badgers and Gophers) because I hope they lose one more game this year and it's in a regional. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Berger Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Now we just need Penn St and OSU to lose tomorrow. Help UND or not, I'm pretty sure I can't cheer for Wisconsin over Penn St or Minnesota over OSU. We'll just need to make it some other way I will cheer for Ohio State over Minnesota, Wisconsin over Penn State, and Wisconsin over Ohio State. That feels the least dirty to me. Dave 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxweet Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Now we just need Penn St and OSU to lose tomorrow. Help UND or not, I'm pretty sure I can't cheer for Wisconsin over Penn St or Minnesota over OSU. We'll just need to make it some other way I'll root for OSU and Penn State to lose, but won't cheer for the gophers or badgers to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiouxScore Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I know most have said we need to win tomorrow to have a chance but there must be some scenarios where the Sioux can get in with a tie. Messing with pairwise predictor this is a scenario where the Sioux get in with a tie. Robert Morris wins Atlantic Wisconsin wins B1G Colgate wins ECAC Lowell wins Hockey East Denver wins NCHC Sioux tie Ferris wins WCHA EDIT: Looking at it closer the Tie didn't save and had changed back to a win. It seems the best a tie will do for us is put us tied with Michigan for the last spot but looks like they win the tiebreaker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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