jimdahl Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Now that USCHO has joined the party (USCHO publishing a PWR ranking identical to SiouxSports' marks the first known identical implementations of the new rules, which increases my confidence we're getting it right), time for the thread. Pairwise Rankings USCHO has also started doing bracketology posts. While I get caring who the top 16 are (because they're a decent predictor of the final top 16), I've never understand the interest in laying out regionals as if the season ended today. But, for those who enjoy it: USCHO bracketology blog I do have the simulator up with the new PWR/RPI formula so hope to get a forecast up after this weekend's games. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goon Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Now that USCHO has joined the party (USCHO publishing a PWR ranking identical to SiouxSports' marks the first known identical implementations of the new rules, which increases my confidence we're getting it right), time for the thread. Pairwise Rankings USCHO has also started doing bracketology posts. While I get caring who the top 16 are (because they're a decent predictor of the final top 16), I've never understand the interest in laying out regionals as if the season ended today. But, for those who enjoy it: USCHO bracketology blog I do have the simulator up with the new PWR/RPI formula so hope to get a forecast up after this weekend's games. I agree, how many times have we seen the Bracketology blog posts, they will look nothing like they do in March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxweet Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 as we all remember from last year even the ncaa regionals are a joke as attendance means more than anything. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jodcon Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I agree, how many times have we seen the Bracketology blog posts, they will look nothing like they do in March. Even then we are surprised at the brackets when the selection show hits, it's just not worth the time for me. Besides, I have youtube videos to post Goon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goon Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Even then we are surprised at the brackets when the selection show hits, it's just not worth the time for me. Besides, I have youtube videos to post Goon. Well, hopefully, there's something to post tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxweet Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 hey jim, how do we know who is actually right on this as you and uscho have different results than chn? this could lead to a lot of confusion come march. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnt Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Jim, given the NCAA new approach to winning Non-conference road games being more valuable than in the past, is it more important that UND wins in Bemidji? They obviously need both games, but is the one in Bemidji more valuable pairwise wise? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackheart Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Uscho currently has Sioux tied for 19th in pair wise with Maine...although both teams have identical records, it somehow has Maine with a higher Win %...strange... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 Uscho currently has Sioux tied for 19th in pair wise with Maine...although both teams have identical records, it somehow has Maine with a higher Win %...strange... Without labeling them as such, they're putting in the traditional record (e.g. each W, L, or T is 1 point) but the weighted win percentage (home wins/road losses worth .8, home losses/road wins worth 1.2). You can see the weighted records (along with lots of other info behind the calculations of the new RPI) on the RPI team details pages here: North Dakota RPI details Those are still works in progress, given all the changes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 hey jim, how do we know who is actually right on this as you and uscho have different results than chn? this could lead to a lot of confusion come march. CHN does not appear to be using the new formula yet. USCHO, Reilly Hamilton (on the USCHO forums), and I arrived at pretty much identical (Reilly has one slight difference) tables through independent development based on the NCAA's memo. It's possible that we all misinterpreted something, but USCHO generally has reasonably good connections to the committee, which increases my confidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 Jim, given the NCAA new approach to winning Non-conference road games being more valuable than in the past, is it more important that UND wins in Bemidji? They obviously need both games, but is the one in Bemidji more valuable pairwise wise? Two part answer: For RPI, non-conference doesn't really matter, but home/road does. So, the road game at Bemidji is actually twice as important to our weighted win% as the home game vs. Bemidji. For PWR, the impact to RPI will affect our comparison to teams close to us, but the comparison with Bemidji St isn't really in jeopardy. With only three criteria in the new PWR, each comparison comes down to RPI except when there are head-to-head match ups. Looking at UND's PWR comparisons, UND currently takes both RPI and COP (by a huge margin). If Bemidji took both head-to-head games, that would result in a 2-2 tie, so the comparison would still go to UND on the basis of RPI. If Bemidji took both head-to-head games and eventually took RPI or COP, UND would lose the comparison. But, unless Bemidji goes an amazing surge, that would mean UND had fallen so far it wouldn't matter much anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimdahl Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 Here's a first forecast for the season... here's what is likely to happen to UND's PWR this weekend. The main takeaway is that pretty big moves are possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Ranger Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Looks like we need two wins to set us up decently for the stretch run. Can't really afford a loss let alone two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oxbow6 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 At 18 as of now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigskyvikes Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The CC game had to have helped..? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilbur Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 CC was twenty seconds away from really helping. But that's the story of their season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oxbow6 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 At 19...down a spot after a win last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxweet Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 anything less than a split here on out and it will be win nchc tourney or go home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InHeavenThereIsNoBeer Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 It's frustrating to see this team playing good hockey for 9 straight and still be on the outside looking in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redneksioux Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Based on this season's ooc record for the nchc....has und ever been in such a weak conference? Not trying to point any fingers at the conference.....with a better showing earlier on in the season und wouldn't be in this situation. But their conference's record vs ooc teams is terrible. At this point und is not a bubble team. If they win 2 out of 3 from here on out they will be a bubble team. Right now they are on the outside looking in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxweet Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 it will all come down to their rpi, as the nchc ooc record isn't stinging und too bad. every team that is above und in the pairwise their comparison can be flipped if und gets a better rpi. rpi obviously goes up with wins and down with losses, it's a lot to ask considering they are on a 9 game unbeaten streak but und will at some point need to have another stretch of 5-7 games where they go unbeaten to start to put them self in into a more comfortable bubble situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnsowe Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 It really sucks that Denver is not in the top 10 and we do not play minnesota. So we need St Cloud to beat Minny bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MafiaMan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Win two home playoff games. Win two games at Target Center in front of a predominantly green-clad crowd. Sounds easy enough... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siouxweet Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It really sucks that Denver is not in the top 10 and we do not play minnesota. So we need St Cloud to beat Minny bad. best thing for und this weekend would be a split at du and msum to lose both games this weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mamba Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I was very uncomfortable when last season I heard our new conference referred to as "The Super Conference" ... "Arrogant" is what I thought. Now, more than halfway through the season the super conf has only one team in top 16 of pairwise. That team, St. Cloud had to lobby to get an invite, as I remember they were not asked at the start. Maybe Norte Dame knew something when they took a pass on their invitation. UND has been winning more of late but based on the pairwise and the natl. polls there really is little on our dance-card that will improve our standing. St. Cloud is out there for a second series so that's a good thing. If we keep winning I would think we'll crack the top 16. Who woulda thunk? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.