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Posted

True UND fans want to see UND in the playoffs where anything can happen. Due to UND's tough schedule and young FB team (especially at QB), a weak DI team that still counts towards the "magic number 7" is very valuable. Also, because of the schedule's difficulty, if UND loses 4 games they still might get into the playoffs. The 24-team playoff expansion for this season also helps that.

Here's a more detailed explanation or example:

If UND were to lose 4 of their first 6 (which is possible due to the team's youth at QB and the difficulty of the opponents) against SDSU, Montana, Montana State, and Eastern Washington, yet pull out the last 5 games (Sac. St, Portland St, NAU, N. Colorado, and UC Davis) and end with a 7-4 record, UND could still make the playoffs. This is especially true because UND would still have a 6-2 Big Sky record. It's also somewhat likely because UND's young team could trip a bit coming out of the gates but end up hot towards the end of the schedule.

Now, if they pull out 2 of the 4 tough beginning games (SDSU, Montana, MSU, EWU), then the chances for a playoff berth look very good.

In theory yes, but when your highest quality win is NAU, that would be a very tough sell to the committee. You really need to beat SOMEBODY that is good for a quality win. That would be my argument against some other bubble team anyway.
Posted

Per SFI, both Cole Reyes and Cam Kuksa have been on campus since the beginning of July or so working out with the team. Wonder if any others had been, or they both decided to get a jump start since they are likely leading candidates to have their shirts pulled.

  • 2 months later...
Posted

True UND fans want to see UND in the playoffs where anything can happen. Due to UND's tough schedule and young FB team (especially at QB), a weak DI team that still counts towards the "magic number 7" is very valuable. Also, because of the schedule's difficulty, if UND loses 4 games they still might get into the playoffs. The 24-team playoff expansion for this season also helps that.

Here's a more detailed explanation or example:

If UND were to lose 4 of their first 6 (which is possible due to the team's youth at QB and the difficulty of the opponents) against SDSU, Montana, Montana State, and Eastern Washington, yet pull out the last 5 games (Sac. St, Portland St, NAU, N. Colorado, and UC Davis) and end with a 7-4 record, UND could still make the playoffs. This is especially true because UND would still have a 6-2 Big Sky record. It's also somewhat likely because UND's young team could trip a bit coming out of the gates but end up hot towards the end of the schedule.

Now, if they pull out 2 of the 4 tough beginning games (SDSU, Montana, MSU, EWU), then the chances for a playoff berth look very good.

I found this one interesting. However, I'm guessing UND FB FAN didn't foresee blowout losses against the Montanas and EWU.

Posted

I found this one interesting. However, I'm guessing UND FB FAN didn't foresee blowout losses against the Montanas and EWU.

Thought it possible we could start 2-4, but didn't think the lack of competitiveness and discipline would be there. I figured we'd lose 'close' games to the 'tough 4' and going 7-4 would still be realistic. Now, I'm not sure 7-4 is even possible.

Posted

Thought it possible we could start 2-4, but didn't think the lack of competitiveness and discipline would be there. I figured we'd lose 'close' games to the 'tough 4' and going 7-4 would still be realistic. Now, I'm not sure 7-4 is even possible.

I thought we would be 5-1 with only 1 loss to the big 4, after all the hype on how improved the defense was and how kick ass our WR's were...too bad we don't have a defense and Braden Hanson under center.

Posted

I thought we would be 5-1 with only 1 loss to the big 4, after all the hype on how improved the defense was and how kick ass our WR's were...too bad we don't have a defense and Braden Hanson under center.

I thought we'd be 3-3 with the potential to go 8-3, more likely 7-4. Now I'm expecting 3-8 and hoping that's enough for Faison to take notice.

Posted

Who are the wins coming against in your projection?

NC and either Sac. St. or Davis...again I'm optimistic. We could lose all 3 of those and go 2-9.

Posted

I still think this team has the talent to win out. I really wish our 2nd buy week was before the Portland St. game and not the last week of the regular season.

Posted

I still think this team has the talent to win out. I really wish our 2nd buy week was before the Portland St. game and not the last week of the regular season.

I agree the talent is there. UNA with be especially tough for this team. I hope they do win out. I would be so happy for the defense to step up and OL step up and the TO and penalties minimized. It would great for this team to win out and make the playoffs. This would be a big step forward.

Posted

Going the semi-optimistic route: wins against Sacramento State, Northern Colorado, and UC Davis. Losses to Portland State and Northern Arizona.

I'm really on the fence with the Portland State game - that could be a win…

5-6 without PSU win; 6-5 with PSU win

Mussman keeps his job in both scenarios though, so I hope the team ACTUALLY looks improved and is not just feasting on inferior competition.

If Mussman ends up with a pass after this dismal season, he better actually take measures to get this team on the same level as the Montanas and Eastern Washington. He sure didn't do it this year.

If Mussman loses another home game (that includes this weekend), he'll be gone. Season will end up 4-7 with loss with Sac St loss and then Muss will not only need to go, he will go.

  • Upvote 1
Posted

Going the semi-optimistic route: wins against Sacramento State, Northern Colorado, and UC Davis. Losses to Portland State and Northern Arizona.

I'm really on the fence with the Portland State game - that could be a win…

5-6 without PSU win; 6-5 with PSU win

Mussman keeps his job in both scenarios though, so I hope the team ACTUALLY looks improved and is not just feasting on inferior competition.

If Mussman ends up with a pass after this dismal season, he better actually take measures to get this team on the same level as the Montanas and Eastern Washington. He sure didn't do it this year.

If Mussman loses another home game (that includes this weekend), he'll be gone. Season will end up 4-7 with loss with Sac St loss and then Muss will not only need to go, he will go.

I think your assessment is spot-on.

Posted

If you can run the ball effectively, you will beat this team.

That's why on the road vs NAU and PSU are losses.

On the road against NAU and PSU, facing Bauman and DJ Adams respectively, will be a very tall order. That's why I see those games as loses.

However, if UND plays the way they did last weekend and doesn't turn the ball over, they will beat Sac State, UC Davis, and Northern Colorado. If they still have turnover issues, or the defense of old arises, then I think we drop a home game and this year results in only 4 wins.

Then, good bye Mussman and I welcome the start of getting UND football back on track.

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