PWR predictions

[LeftyZL]

http://www.collegeho...atings/yatc.php

I used this link to do some probabilities, and as of right now, I can't get the Sioux to drop below 12th. I'm sure there's a scenario out there that could.

So, as long as SCSU(WCHA), Bowling Green(CCHA), Colgate(ECAC), Providence(HE), and the AHA winner don't all win their respective conference tournaments, we should be in.

All other teams in the conference tourneys should be locks to get to the NCAA Tourney right now.

[LeftyZL]

What are the odds that they send UMN to another regional. Looks like UMD should get the "home" regional?

Zero. They are a host school.

[farce poobah]

Run the table and get a #1 seed!

Go SIOUX!

[rochsioux]

Strange year, the Sioux could finish as high as #2 overall in the pwr or could end up missing the tourny.

[krangodance]

Strange year, the Sioux could finish as high as #2 overall in the pwr or could end up missing the tourny.

What did you use to figure this out?

[iluvdebbies]

What did you use to figure this out?

theres a link in post #276 of this topic

[jimdahl]

Here are all the remaining possibilities:

PWR possibilities

Here's the one we care about (percentage of remaining outcomes in which UND finishes with a particular PWR):

2 0.2%

3 5.1%

4 5.3%

5 2.0%

6 2.1%

7 3.6%

8 6.4%

9 14.6%

10 22.9%

11 19.0%

12 14.2%

13 4.2%

14 0.3%

I'll go into a little more depth on what happens if UND wins vs. loses later. As far as what rank we need, there are 16 slots and the winner of each conference tournament gets one. From the table linked above, the marked teams below are the teams who can win their conference tournament without necessarily being pushed into the top 16 of PWR. So, for each of those that wins, take away a slot.

WCHA

* Michigan Tech

Denver

Minnesota Duluth

* St. Cloud St

North Dakota

Minnesota

Hockey East

Maine

Boston University

* Providence

Boston College

ECAC

* Harvard

Cornell

* Colgate

Union

CCHA

Miami

Western Michigan

* Bowling Green

Michigan

Atlantic Hockey

* RIT

* Niagara

* Mercyhurst

* Air Force

So, #16 won't make it at large because the winner of the Atlantic tournament will take a slot.

[The Sicatoka]

So if UND "wins none" at the Final Five, there is a 6 in 1000 chance that UND finishes 14 in the PWR (and an 85 in 1000 chance they finish PWR 13).

However, in that same "wins none" there is no listing of how UND'd finish 15 in PWR.

Basically, if UND loses Thursday,

and the worst case scenario happens (6 in 1000 chance --> UND at PWR 14),

it would still take two tournament upset winners (see Jim's * teams) to knock UND of the NCAA tournament

(PWR 16 is Atlantic Hockey, it'd take surprises at PWR 14 and 15 to knock out UND).

[Let'sGoHawks!]

So if UND "wins none" at the Final Five, there is a 6 in 1000 chance that UND finishes 14 in the PWR (and an 85 in 1000 chance they finish PWR 13).

However, in that same "wins none" there is no listing of how UND'd finish 15 in PWR.

Basically, if UND loses Thursday,

and the worst case scenario happens (6 in 1000 chance --> UND at PWR 14),

it would still take two tournament upset winners (see Jim's * teams) to knock UND of the NCAA tournament

(PWR 16 is Atlantic Hockey, it'd take surprises at PWR 14 and 15 to knock out UND).

That's how I interpreted it as well. Nice work again Jim!

[The Sicatoka]

Someone had listed a website somewhere on this site that showed the chances of teams making the winning its division or making the post-season for all sports (MLB, NFL, NHL, college hockey, etc.) but I can' find it or remember it.

Help?

[nodakvindy]

playoffstatus.com

It's a cool site. They seem to use their own ratings on determining if teams are sure things or not. It doesn't always match PairWise.

[The Sicatoka]

playoffstatus.com

That's the one. Thanks!

[jimdahl]

A deeper dive into whether UND will make the tournament

[Jeremy_und2004]

A deeper dive into whether UND will make the tournament

Great post!

[Wilbur]

I can't see SCSU or Tech winning the final five. Heck, it'd take a monumental task for UND to win it with their shorthanded lineup. If SCSU beats UND I'd like to see them beat Minnesota too, but it wouldn't be the worst thing if Goldy won that game.

[ihatethegophers]

I have a question: Is there a scenario where UMD, UM, UND, DU are all 2 or 3 seeds? If that is the case does that mean they all must be placed in different regions?

[jimdahl]

Well, that should be it.

Thursday night PWR possibilties update, Sioux seem a lock for NCAAs

[KBH2010]

Well, that should be it.

Thursday night PWR possibilties update, Sioux seem a lock for NCAAs

Excellent

[Goon]

Just think this team started out 4-7-1 and ended 19-5-2 down the stretch...

[stickboy1956]

I have a question: Is there a scenario where UMD, UM, UND, DU are all 2 or 3 seeds? If that is the case does that mean they all must be placed in different regions?

Best chance for that to happen is for BU and Miami to win their tournaments and Denver or ND winning the WCHA.

http://blog.siouxsports.com/2012/03/15/thursday-night-pwr-possibilties-update-sioux-seem-a-lock-for-ncaas/

BC is a lock and Mich is almost a lock for #1 seed - if BU and Miami win 2 they are both %90 for #1 seeds.

If you don't want a trip out east, root for BC and Mich.

[RedFrog]

Miami losing to Western Michigan 4-1 in the 3rd, that is good for the Sioux!!

[KBH2010]

Minnesota, UMD, UND, and Denver are all tied for 7th right now.

[Washburn Sioux]

Minnesota, UMD, UND, and Denver are all tied for 7th right now.

With Miami loss, it is now a 4 way tie for 6th.

[GoalieMask]

If Minnesota wins the Final Five and manage to lock up the #1 seed in the West, what are the chances of UND also going to the West as a #3 seed. Or would Duluth or Denver get the nod?

[GoalieMask]

If N. Dakota wins the Final Five and manage to lock up a top seed, what are the chances they will be in the West with Minnesota. You know, this loss could impact UM's first round game.... So rematch is still a stretch.