2009 Flood

[FightingSiouxnerd]

I feel stupid asking this, but is Grand Forks Okay?

[gfhockey]

found this over on bisonville

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QDN4ONlL8A

this guy needs a reality check.

[farce poobah]

I feel stupid asking this, but is Grand Forks Okay?

As it relates to 2009 flooding, yes.

As it relates to 2009 NCAA hockey, no.

[star2city]

New York Times: Is a catastrophe averted an opportunity lost?

Walaker continues his way with words:

Standing on the edge of an ever-rising earthen dike on Friday as workers added still more sandbags to top it off, Mr. Walaker was left looking wistfully downriver.

“We’re jealous,” he said of Grand Forks, “absolutely jealous.”

Perhaps not so jealous of the 6 ft crest underprediction by the weather service in 1997 or the Billion or so in property damage.

[jloos]

found this over on bisonville

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QDN4ONlL8A

this guy needs a reality check.

All the help we got? We helped ourselves - what a novel idea. Too bad this concept is foreign to places like New Orleans. I do not recall a single person put the blame on the government for GF flooding and burning. What is sad is this guy's opinion is likely shared by a large percentage of this country.

[bigmrg74]

No news is good news I guess. I take it the levees are for the moment holding??

[HockeyHigh]

Fargo is doing perfectly fine at the moment. A lot of streets are reopened and inside Fargo it basically feels like any other day. The word of a second crest is among us with all this new snow, so we'll see.

[Yote 53]

Just thinking of all you NoDaks up there. Let's get rid of this weather and let spring (and some dry days) come. I know Fargo is seeing the worst but GF is right down river so I am hoping you guys will be OK.

[The Sicatoka]

Folks, this one is far from over: There's still another face-off to be won.

Just out from NWS/AHPS (link below, and be sure to note the "valid" dates to know this is updated):

	   CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT MAINSTEM RED RIVER LOCATIONS

						   VALID  4/9/2009 - 7/8/2009


LOCATION   FS(FT)   90%	80%	70%	60%	50%	40%	30%	20%	10%

--------	 ---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---

 WAHPETON ND   10   17.3   18.0   18.4   18.5   18.6   18.7   19.0   19.4   19.9

 FARGO ND	  18   40.4   40.8   41.2   41.4   41.7   41.9   42.4   43.3   44.6

 HALSTAD ND	26   39.2   39.4   39.7   39.9   40.0   40.2   40.7   41.2   42.3

 GRAND FORKS   28   49.8   50.3   50.7   51.2   51.7   52.1   52.7   53.8   56.1

 OSLO MN	   26   37.8   38.0   38.1   38.4   38.6   38.7   38.9   39.4   40.3

 DRAYTON ND	32   43.6   43.9   44.1   44.5   44.7   44.9   45.2   46.1   46.6

 PEMBINA ND	42   53.8   53.8   54.0   54.1   54.2   54.4   54.5   54.7   54.9[/code]


That's updated as of April 3.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/scripts/locald...amp;data=lpofar 


That's says Fargo has:

- a 90% chance of going back to 40.4

- a 70% chance of setting a [i]new[/i][b][/b] new record

[HockeyHigh]

Folks, this one is far from over: There's still another face-off to be won.

Just out from NWS/AHPS (link below, and be sure to note the "valid" dates to know this is updated):

	   CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT MAINSTEM RED RIVER LOCATIONS

						   VALID  4/9/2009 - 7/8/2009


LOCATION   FS(FT)   90%	80%	70%	60%	50%	40%	30%	20%	10%

--------	 ---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---

 WAHPETON ND   10   17.3   18.0   18.4   18.5   18.6   18.7   19.0   19.4   19.9

 FARGO ND	  18   40.4   40.8   41.2   41.4   41.7   41.9   42.4   43.3   44.6

 HALSTAD ND	26   39.2   39.4   39.7   39.9   40.0   40.2   40.7   41.2   42.3

 GRAND FORKS   28   49.8   50.3   50.7   51.2   51.7   52.1   52.7   53.8   56.1

 OSLO MN	   26   37.8   38.0   38.1   38.4   38.6   38.7   38.9   39.4   40.3

 DRAYTON ND	32   43.6   43.9   44.1   44.5   44.7   44.9   45.2   46.1   46.6

 PEMBINA ND	42   53.8   53.8   54.0   54.1   54.2   54.4   54.5   54.7   54.9

That's updated as of April 3.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/scripts/locald...amp;data=lpofar

That's says Fargo has:

- a 90% chance of going back to 40.4

- a 70% chance of setting a new new record

Well let's hope they're wrong again. They overpredicted by two feet just 48 hours before the crest hit, how reliable is two weeks?

[andtheHomeoftheSIOUX!!]

Well let's hope they're wrong again. They overpredicted by two feet just 48 hours before the crest hit, how reliable is two weeks?

Yeah you can't ever tell whether they are overpredicting or underpredicting or right on.

[homer]

Well let's hope they're wrong again. They overpredicted by two feet just 48 hours before the crest hit, how reliable is two weeks?

Agreed, there is a lot of snow around and water standing but trying to predict 2 weeks out is tough. They could be wrong on either side. If you can't get it right in 48 hrs how accurate can you be in 2 weeks? I just hope they are wrong and the weather continues to cooperate with a slow snow melt.

[The Sicatoka]

Wasn't it a second crest that got Grand Forks?

[jloos]

I would criticize the forecasters, but I would have no idea what I'm talking about. The fact they were within a foot or so last time seems pretty accurate to me (they always officially said 42 - outside chance of 43). Anything over 43 would be devastating for the city. My house is Moorhead is two miles from the river but would have water at 43.5 feet according to the GIS projections.

This all depends on the weather and trying to precisely predict mother nature is impossible. Looks like I should not have taken the floor drains out of the basement.

It looks like the Mayor Walaker disagrees with the NWS:

FARGO

[HockeyHigh]

I would criticize the forecasters, but I would have no idea what I'm talking about. The fact they were within a foot or so last time seems pretty accurate to me (they always officially said 42 - outside chance of 43). Anything over 43 would be devastating for the city. My house is Moorhead is two miles from the river but would have water at 43.5 feet according to the GIS projections.

This all depends on the weather and trying to precisely predict mother nature is impossible. Looks like I should not have taken the floor drains out of the basement.

It looks like the Mayor Walaker disagrees with the NWS:

Assuming the quote is right - I guess he knows more than the NWS.

I'm definitely not saying that Walaker is correct, I often go in the opposite direction he does, but he's trying to settle Fargo down a bit. We have two weeks to prepare instead of 3 days this time, no need to panic. The NWS does blow things out of proportion at times, everything from wind storms to hurricanes. They prepare and alert for the absolute worst, and also, predictions like this get national attention for help, in case we do need it.

[SiouxMeNow]

They prepare and alert for the absolute worst, and also, predictions like this get national attention for help, in case we do need it.

They've been doing this SINCE 1997...the year Flood-LOWBALLING died! I hope they're lowballing this second crest too but buckle up boys...from the NWS weather statement on conditions this spring...

6. This year

[wyomingsiouxfan]

It looks as though I'll be unemployed in a couple of weeks, so I'd be glad to drive to Fargo/Moorhead/Oxbow/Oakport/Oak Grove.....wherever, and do my part and pitch some sandbags.

[homer]

It looks as though I'll be unemployed in a couple of weeks, so I'd be glad to drive to Fargo/Moorhead/Oxbow/Oakport/Oak Grove.....wherever, and do my part and pitch some sandbags.

Sorry to hear about that. I hope you are able to find something else quickly.

[choyt3]

It looks as though I'll be unemployed in a couple of weeks, so I'd be glad to drive to Fargo/Moorhead/Oxbow/Oakport/Oak Grove.....wherever, and do my part and pitch some sandbags.

I'm in the same boat. It sucks. What are you doing in Gillette, now? Thought it was booming? I worked out there for a bit from 95 to 97 with the BNSF. Good times.

[LB#11]

Looks like Fargo-Moorhead dikes will be going to 44ft. today(Monday).

[wyomingsiouxfan]

I'm in the same boat. It sucks. What are you doing in Gillette, now? Thought it was booming? I worked out there for a bit from 95 to 97 with the BNSF. Good times.

I purchase easements and right-of-way for gas pipelines and facilities. The company that we are contracted through has put a stop to new projects and layoffs have already begun. If things don't change here soon, it will be a bust again.

[LB#11]

Looks like Fargo-Moorhead dikes will be going to 44ft. today(Monday).

Pending until Thursday or Friday now.

[Goon]

Pending until Thursday or Friday now.

I just hope the crest is not going to be 43 or 44 feet. Holy Cow!

[LB#11]

I just hope the crest is not going to be 43 or 44 feet. Holy Cow!

That would be devasting. I'm no expert, but I agree with Walaker that it'll be between 37-38, 40 tops. So if we were in Vegas I'D say 38.5

[Hammersmith]

In the comments section of a recent Forum article, a meteorologist from the NWS-GF office wrote some pretty detailed posts(on his own time/computer). He talked about how the USGS and the NWS feed data to the River Forecast Center(RFC) in Chanhassen, which runs the computer models and sends the results back to NWS-GF for public release. He also talked about what happened the week before the Fargo crest. Apparently, on Thursday(?) before the crest, the RFC-C was predicting 41 feet and was feeling pretty confident in the prediction. In a meeting early that afternoon, the NWS-GF presented that info to Walaker. Later that afternoon, the NWS headquarters in Washington got involved due to the national news coverage and pressed the RFC-C for the worst-case scenario, which was 42 feet with a possibility of 43. The headquarters then contacted NWS-GF and overruled the earlier prediction and instructed them to use the worst-case scenario from RFC-C. The headquarters even required the NWS-GF to send the press releases to them for approval before releasing them to the public and city leaders. This is what caused the forecast to rise to 43 feet just a few hours after the 41 foot prediction given to Walaker and the other city leaders(it's also the one that pissed Walaker off).

The meteorologist then went on to say that it was his predictions of a warmer week that threw off the original prediction by 1/4-1/2 foot. The colder temps slowed the melt/runoff which lead to a 40.82 crest, rather than the 41 foot prediction. Regarding the upcoming crest, he said he's talked with the RFC-C and their computer models are "unusually confident" of a crest of over 38 feet. Though he didn't state it in the posts I read, I suspect the NWS headquarters is still forcing the GF office to release the worst-case scenarios, rather than what the models are actually predicting. I'm guessing a 38-39 foot second crest, with the possibility of 39-41 if we get significant precipitation in the basin. Unless some really bad things happen, I seriously doubt we'll see last week's record broken.