Prospective Recruits

[stoneySIOUX]

33 minutes ago, Frozen4sioux said:

 

I see this as a massive blow to USA Hockey overall.  How I see it playing out..

There will be a huge influx of MJ age outs flooding the NCAA spots, and this will absolutely shut out opportunities for USHL and NAHL kids in the USA hockey system.   

Yes, eventually college hockey will expand but at a minimum It will take 7-10 years for college hockey to expand to accommodate the influx of players.

Zero top talent kids will go the NCAA route immediately, they will absolutely go MJ with college being the age out option for further development. It will be easy for the MJ teams to attract and convince kids of this path, especially in the time it takes NCAA to React/FugUp that reaction/Adapt to the ne norm. NCAA Hockey will be the backup plan

The other side of the shitsandwich is specifically WHO it hurts the most: 2005/2006/2007 kids (maybe even 2008s) because they will be the ones caught in the middle of the influx and expansion options, a group of kids already the most effected by the covid shutdowns, extra years, and everything they've had to go through..

In the end NCAA wont be competing with MJ for players it will be competing with the ECHL and Europe for players. Different world is coming.

Losers: NCAA Hockey, USHL

Massive Losers: NAHL, USA Hockey players

Winners: Canadian Major Juniors, NHL teams, Canadian Junior A 

Massive Winners: AAA Hockey programs who can further push the need to pay for exposure and development, 

I'm hearing the opposite regarding the top kids not going NCAA. Coaches see this as a massive coup for college hockey. Year by year, more big-time players are playing NCAA and the balance is shifting away from MJ a bit. With NLA and some very attractive, big-time schools, NCAA will get many top enders. These top enders want options and this is an example of that. On top of that, the middle of the road NCAA teams will get better too with additional influx of players. 

Directly from a couple pretty tied in hockey dudes.... they both said the "NCAA big dogs will get 10-15% better and the Bemidjis and Techs will get 25% better"

[AlphaMikeFoxtrot]

41 minutes ago, Frozen4sioux said:

 

I see this as a massive blow to USA Hockey overall.  How I see it playing out..

There will be a huge influx of MJ age outs flooding the NCAA spots, and this will absolutely shut out opportunities for USHL and NAHL kids in the USA hockey system.   

Yes, eventually college hockey will expand but at a minimum It will take 7-10 years for college hockey to expand to accommodate the influx of players.

Zero top talent kids will go the NCAA route immediately, they will absolutely go MJ with college being the age out option for further development. It will be easy for the MJ teams to attract and convince kids of this path, especially in the time it takes NCAA to React/FugUp that reaction/Adapt to the ne norm. NCAA Hockey will be the backup plan

The other side of the shitsandwich is specifically WHO it hurts the most: 2005/2006/2007 kids (maybe even 2008s) because they will be the ones caught in the middle of the influx and expansion options, a group of kids already the most effected by the covid shutdowns, extra years, and everything they've had to go through..

In the end NCAA wont be competing with MJ for players it will be competing with the ECHL and Europe for players. Different world is coming.

Losers: NCAA Hockey, USHL

Massive Losers: NAHL, USA Hockey players

Winners: Canadian Major Juniors, NHL teams, Canadian Junior A 

Massive Winners: AAA Hockey programs who can further push the need to pay for exposure and development, 

What is the upside for Canadian junior A? Their niche right now is retaining eligibility for NCAA, seems they are in the same boat as USHL and NAHL.

NCAA could assist/incentivize Liberty, Navy, SFU, URI, Syracuse, Delaware and anyone else where the rink is already there to make the jump. D3 schools are a big winner here too.

[Frozen4sioux]

4 minutes ago, AlphaMikeFoxtrot said:

What is the upside for Canadian junior A? Their niche right now is retaining eligibility for NCAA, seems they are in the same boat as USHL and NAHL.

NCAA could assist/incentivize Liberty, Navy, SFU, URI, Syracuse, Delaware and anyone else where the rink is already there to make the jump. D3 schools are a big winner here too.

Those schools may win and EVENTUALLY NCAA will expand but that is a long process. You are correct D3, and ACHA are probably big winners as well, and quickly

I see that point of CanJrA, just considering the relationships of that with the MJ teams as continuing to protect development paths for Canadian kids, but who knows that that all plays out I guess. 

[stoneySIOUX]

32 minutes ago, AlphaMikeFoxtrot said:

What is the upside for Canadian junior A? Their niche right now is retaining eligibility for NCAA, seems they are in the same boat as USHL and NAHL.

NCAA could assist/incentivize Liberty, Navy, SFU, URI, Syracuse, Delaware and anyone else where the rink is already there to make the jump. D3 schools are a big winner here too.

Big time.

[cberkas]

Lukas Sawchyn signs with the Oil Kings. Not sure if this will end his commitment to Denver with the lawsuit. 

[scpa0305]

23 minutes ago, cberkas said:

Lukas Sawchyn signs with the Oil Kings. Not sure if this will end his commitment to Denver with the lawsuit. 

For now I assume it does but it seems as those walls are coming down. He’ll play with his brother too. DU will add another one here soon 

[yzerman19]

Interesting perspectives.  I enjoy reading this, makes great dis purse (too bad our national politics weren't the same way!)

NTDP kids will still go NTDP, get drafted, go to college, likely get six figure NIL deals. No impact there.

Kids debating between USHL and CHL now have a choice based on what fits them best...does a kid from minny or GF really want to move to Medicine Hat or swift current?  The league is just a league, the kids will now have more choices for the team, coaches, geo that feels best.

NAHL and tier 2 leagues...kids in that league are always one cut in the league above from being released.  It is a hard grind below tier 1 and always will be.  
 

if anything, this could promote parity.  The rich won't stay rich.  Fledgling programs and historical basement dwellers will give blue blood programs a run with "20 year old Canadians" to quote what the googers used to say about us.  
 

as a parent of a hockey player, I love more options for fit and development while still keeping NCAA hockey an option.

[yzerman19]

Discourse 

[scpa0305]

9 minutes ago, yzerman19 said:

Interesting perspectives.  I enjoy reading this, makes great dis purse (too bad our national politics weren't the same way!)

NTDP kids will still go NTDP, get drafted, go to college, likely get six figure NIL deals. No impact there.

Kids debating between USHL and CHL now have a choice based on what fits them best...does a kid from minny or GF really want to move to Medicine Hat or swift current?  The league is just a league, the kids will now have more choices for the team, coaches, geo that feels best.

NAHL and tier 2 leagues...kids in that league are always one cut in the league above from being released.  It is a hard grind below tier 1 and always will be.  
 

if anything, this could promote parity.  The rich won't stay rich.  Fledgling programs and historical basement dwellers will give blue blood programs a run with "20 year old Canadians" to quote what the googers used to say about us.  
 

as a parent of a hockey player, I love more options for fit and development while still keeping NCAA hockey an option.

This is a a great post. Agree on all front.

[.357]

21 minutes ago, yzerman19 said:

if anything, this could promote parity.  The rich won't stay rich.  Fledgling programs and historical basement dwellers will give blue blood programs a run with "20 year old Canadians" to quote what the googers used to say about us.  

 

 

My question is the predominant talent level of the MJ players going south to the NCAA: will they be mostly like the 20 y/o Braxton Whitehead trying to get into ASU so they can extend their amateur eligibility? (older players like him with his kind of stats won't generally be helping any basement-dwellers compete with the big boys) ...  or will we also see some higher-end 18 & 19 y/os who can definitely help bring more parity to the NCAA? But what incentive would an 18 or 19 y/o player who's lighting up the OHL have for playing in the NCAA? Won't these higher-end players mostly just transition to the AHL for some experience before they hit the NHL after a couple years of doing very well in the CHL?

[AlphaMikeFoxtrot]

Ugh. Berchild to Denver

[brianvf]

2 hours ago, scpa0305 said:

DU will add another one here soon 

Good call.

11 minutes ago, AlphaMikeFoxtrot said:

Ugh. Berchild to Denver

Absolutely massive get for them.  He's gonna be a good college player.
Another very talented MN kid electing to go somewhere other than UMN for school.  Pretty crazy how quiet their recruiting cycle has been thus far.

[siouxforce19]

2 minutes ago, brianvf said:

Good call.

Absolutely massive get for them.  He's gonna be a good college player.
Another very talented MN kid electing to go somewhere other than UMN for school.  Pretty crazy how quiet their recruiting cycle has been thus far.

I didn’t really notice any deep ties to UMN with Berchild outside of him being from there, so him going somewhere else didn’t shock me. His parents are both from Wisconsin, and I guess I don’t find it shocking that a kid from Shattuck picks a private university. 
 

Minnesota has been oddly quiet this cycle, but I’m not sure the reasons. A lot of people who follow recruiting assumed they’d get Berchild. 

[brianvf]

6 minutes ago, siouxforce19 said:

Minnesota has been oddly quiet this cycle, but I’m not sure the reasons. A lot of people who follow recruiting assumed they’d get Berchild. 

Yeah, it seems most of the UMN fans thought they'd get both Lutner and Berchild from their backyards, and both ended up picking DU.

[.357]

59 minutes ago, AlphaMikeFoxtrot said:

Ugh. Berchild to Denver

Plucked right out of Minny's backyard by the wizard Carle. Gotta admire the coach for putting his program atop the college hockey pyramid. 

I see this as more of a positive than a negative. Even though it's unfortunate for UND, it's even more of a negative for MN & the Big10. He's the type of player who will only help strengthen the NCHC brand even more. The NCHC needs players like him to stay dominant, even though he's going to our biggest rival. It's not as bad as it seems, imo.

[SiouxFan100]

I dislike Duluth the most

[farce poobah]

On 9/18/2024 at 2:02 PM, stoneySIOUX said:

The CHL convo is very much a part of this, too. A lot of schools aren't going hard on a massive chunk of players because they see the CHL tap about to be wide open.

Especially NCAA programs with a lot of Canadian connections .... 

[.357]

3 minutes ago, farce poobah said:

Especially NCAA programs with a lot of Canadian connections .... 

Which begs the question if Berry & his staff have already begun talking to some MJ players. I assume they have so they can try & get their fair share of the bounty when the floodgates open.

[cberkas]

Updated list with where they committed:

1. Mikey Berchild, F, Excelsior, Minn – Denver, NCHC

2. J.P. Hurlbert, F, Allen, Texas – Michigan, B1G

3. Dayne Beuker, F, Humboldt, Sask./Portland, Ore

4. Luke Schairer, D, Charlotte, N.C. - BU, Hockey East

5. Eli McKamey, F, Cowichan Bay, B.C

6. Tynan Lawrence, F, Fredericton, N.B. - BU, Hockey East

7. Caleb Malhotra, F, Toronto – BU, Hockey East

8. Jack Hextall, F, Rolling Meadows, Ill – Michigan State, B1G

9. Logan Stuart, F, Manhattan Beach, Calif – Denver, NCHC

10. Parker Trottier, F, Edina, Minn - Notre Dame, B1G

11. Logan Lutner, D, Maple Grove, Minn – Denver, NCHC

12. Sam Wathier, D, Des Moines, Iowa – BC, Hockey East

13. A.J. Francisco, D, Hermantown, Minn – Notre Dame, B1G

14. Victor Plante, F, Hermantown, Minn – Duluth, NCHC

15. Callum Croskery, D, Oakville, Ont - BC, Hockey East

16. Jet Kwajah, D, Hamilton, Ont – Penn State, B1G

17. Jackson Marthaler, D, Superior, Wis – Duluth, NCHC

18. Noah Davidson, F, Irvine, Calif

19. Jonas Kemps, D, Sebastopol, Calif - Michigan State, B1G

20. Lukas Zajic, F, Plainfield, Ill

21. Zachary Nyman, D, Toronto - Michigan, B1G

22. Casey Mutryn, F, Norwell, Mass - BC, Hockey East

23. Cole Bumgarner, F, Albertville, Minn – North Dakota, NCHC

24. Lincoln Kuehne, D, West Fargo – CC, NCHC

25. Abe Barnett, D, Wilmette, Ill 

26. Carter Casey, G, Grand Rapids, Minn

27. Mason West, F, Edina, Minn

28. Carter Sanderson, F, Pierre, S.D. – North Dakota, NCHC

29. Luke Carrithers, G, Maple Grove, Minn

30. T.J. Hale, F, West Fargo

The honorable mentions to the list:

Aurelio Garcia, F, Romeoville, Ill. – Notre Dame B1G

Blake Zielinski, F, Berlin, N.J. - Providence, Hockey East

Beckham Edwards, F, Komoka, Ont. - Sarnia, OHL

Landon Hafele, F, Fairbanks, Alaska

Thomas Vandenberg, F, Ottawa, Ont. – Providence, Hockey East

Brody George, F, Johnstown, Pa. - Michigan State, B1G

Nick Bogas, D, Royal Oak, Mich. – Michigan State, B1G

 

I don't see UND getting another player off the list, maybe Hale but I could see him playing at Denver.

[gfhockey]

2 hours ago, AlphaMikeFoxtrot said:

Ugh. Berchild to Denver

Doubt we wanted him

[cberkas]

4 hours ago, brianvf said:

Yeah, it seems most of the UMN fans thought they'd get both Lutner and Berchild from their backyards, and both ended up picking DU.

Not a happy bunch on GPL, best one was how city kids are going out of state 

[The Sicatoka]

10 hours ago, SiouxFan100 said:

I dislike Duluth the most

I save time and just dislike "maroon and gold" teams (UMn, DU, BC, UMD). 

[Frozen4sioux]

15 hours ago, yzerman19 said:

 

Kids debating between USHL and CHL now have a choice based on what fits them best...does a kid from minny or GF really want to move to Medicine Hat or swift current?  The league is just a league, the kids will now have more choices for the team, coaches, geo that feels best.

 

Its very interesting to see the points of view on this.

The big question there is, are those leagues really all that open to those MN kids to make that choice?   I think that's a question that looks doubtful but will have to see how this plays out.

I just see this all as a very big loss for American kids looking to play D1 hockey for the next 5-7 years.  There just won't be the roster spots available with the influx of Canadian kids aging out of the MJ until College hockey expands by about 10-12 teams.   The way I see it.

Going to be a tougher road for those kids who slog through the NAHL/JrA gauntlet, maybe make it up to the USHL and then are looking to the Bemidji's..Mankatos..of the college hockey world. 

I think there's some kids in that arena from ND now that will be very much disadvantaged by this, again.

[scpa0305]

1 minute ago, Frozen4sioux said:

Its very interesting to see the points of view on this.

The big question there is, are those leagues really all that open to those MN kids to make that choice?   I think that's a question that looks doubtful but will have to see how this plays out.

I just see this all as a very big loss for American kids looking to play D1 hockey for the next 5-7 years.  There just won't be the roster spots available with the influx of Canadian kids aging out of the MJ until College hockey expands by about 10-12 teams.   The way I see it.

Going to be a tougher road for those kids who slog through the NAHL/JrA gauntlet, maybe make it up to the USHL and then are looking to the Bemidji's..Mankatos..of the college hockey world. 

I think there's some kids in that arena from ND now that will be very much disadvantaged by this, again.

The hockey will be much better…but I do agree. It’s going to be much harder for most US kids to play college hockey. Especially in the short term. Many kids will be playing the full 3 yrs of NAHL/USHL hockey. 

[Frozen4sioux]

14 hours ago, .357 said:

 But what incentive would an 18 or 19 y/o player who's lighting up the OHL have for playing in the NCAA? Won't these higher-end players mostly just transition to the AHL for some experience before they hit the NHL after a couple years of doing very well in the CHL?

I see this as the way it will go

 

14 minutes ago, scpa0305 said:

The hockey will be much better…but I do agree. It’s going to be much harder for most US kids to play college hockey. Especially in the short term. Many kids will be playing the full 3 yrs of NAHL/USHL hockey. 

Overall, from the perspective of "Will NCAA hockey be better in 10 years" I think the answer is an obvious, yes.   And it will be 75+ teams of better IMO.

But it will be a different product than what we have come to know over the past 30-40 years of watching it. 

 

The outlier here is not only will this create opportunity for college hockey to expand but also Junior Tier 1 hockey, That again will take a decade to expand and establish to create the opportunities for USA Hockey LTDM kids,