The Sicatoka Posted November 25, 2024 Author Posted November 25, 2024 I was giving the seedings the side-eye until Northern and Augie were mentioned. Quote
siouxweet Posted November 25, 2024 Posted November 25, 2024 30 minutes ago, wheelsup said: they lost their last regular season game to a team that is very close. The resumes are very close... I would get the point if you were talking about Illinois State resume but USD, SDSU and NDSU resumes are very close. If the shoe was on the other foot the bison fans would be screaming about how unfair it is... I remember when head to head used to be a pretty key criteria.. Head to head gets thrown out the window when three teams are tied and they all beat each other. Quote
Bison06 Posted November 25, 2024 Posted November 25, 2024 51 minutes ago, FSSD said: I believe your comments about DII is incorrect. It is DII wins that don't count toward the 6 DI wins required to be eligiable for the playoffs. SDSU and USD have far more than 6 DI wins. There is no little difference in quality of oppenet when playing a quality DII team vs PL or Big South/OVC/Pat, MEAC, SWAC, NEC teams in general. Have any of you tried to watch a NEC or PL game. It is my understanding that all members get spliced game film to review on a weekly basis. They are watching all of the games. NOTE: At one point, I believe that DII wins counted a 1/2 win toward eligiablitiliy. Otherwise, opponets are evaluated the same. The Tiers of FCS: MVFC/Big Sky (2 of 14) - MVFC very similiar to a number of G5 conferences. Big drop to what is the Avg FCS conferences (6/14) - CAA, United, Southern, Ivy, Southland and Big South. Massive drop - DII and lower - (6/14 43% of FCS) Pat, MEAC, SWAC E/W, NEC and PL Here are the Sargin Conference Rantings. 7 SUN BELT EAST (A) = 65.28 64.95 ( 7) 7 64.95 ( 7) 8 MOUNTAIN WEST (A) = 63.02 63.95 ( 8) 12 63.95 ( 8) 9 AMERICAN ATHLETIC (A) = 62.90 62.89 ( 9) 14 62.89 ( 9) 10 SUN BELT WEST (A) = 62.23 61.88 ( 10) 7 61.88 ( 10) 11 MAC (A) = 57.73 57.40 ( 11) 12 57.40 ( 11) 12 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 56.22 56.79 ( 12) 10 56.79 ( 12) 13 CONF-USA (A) = 55.72 55.93 ( 13) 10 55.93 ( 13) 14 I-AA=>I-A (Aa)= 55.70 55.70 ( 14) 2 55.70 ( 14) 15 BIG SKY (AA)= 52.34 52.24 ( 15) 12 52.24 ( 15) The drop off is steep at this point 16 COASTAL (AA)= 47.50 46.93 ( 16) 15 46.93 ( 16) 17 UNITED ATHLETIC (AA)= 47.25 46.73 ( 17) 9 46.73 ( 17) 18 SOUTHERN (AA)= 46.45 46.38 ( 18) 9 46.38 ( 18) 19 IVY LEAGUE (AA)= 46.34 46.32 ( 19) 8 46.32 ( 19) 20 SOUTHLAND (AA)= 45.77 44.93 ( 21) 9 44.93 ( 21) 21 BIG SOUTH/OVC (AA)= 44.72 44.93 ( 20) 9 44.93 ( 20) Insert any number of DII conferences at this point. If not higher 22 PATRIOT (AA)= 40.73 41.04 ( 22) 7 41.04 ( 22) 23 MEAC (AA)= 39.30 39.67 ( 23) 6 39.67 ( 23) 24 SWAC-EAST (AA)= 38.73 38.52 ( 25) 6 38.52 ( 25) 25 I-AA IND. (AA)= 38.65 38.65 ( 24) 2 38.65 ( 24) 26 NORTHEAST (AA)= 36.71 36.58 ( 26) 8 36.58 ( 26) 27 SWAC-WEST (AA)= 35.88 35.22 ( 27) 6 35.22 ( 27) 28 PIONEER (AA)= 35.18 34.59 ( 28) 11 34.59 ( 28) I appreciate the work your putting in here to make your point. When three teams have essentially the same resume and have all beaten each other, how would you propose they be separated by the committee? We’re definitely splitting hairs, but NDSU in my mind had a clear advantage in SoS and apparently the committee saw it the same way. It doesn’t matter how good the DII teams are, they are a lower level and are viewed as such when it comes time for playoff seeding. It’s really as simple as that. Quote
Bison06 Posted November 25, 2024 Posted November 25, 2024 43 minutes ago, wheelsup said: they lost their last regular season game to a team that is very close. The resumes are very close... I would get the point if you were talking about Illinois State resume but USD, SDSU and NDSU resumes are very close. If the shoe was on the other foot the bison fans would be screaming about how unfair it is... I remember when head to head used to be a pretty key criteria.. How would you have ranked them? USD #2, SDSU #3, NDSU #4? By your logic then, how do you put SDSU ahead of NDSU? And how do you put USD ahead of SDSU? Quote
F'n Hawks Posted November 25, 2024 Posted November 25, 2024 (edited) 58 minutes ago, FSSD said: I believe your comments about DII is incorrect. It is DII wins that don't count toward the 6 DI wins required to be eligiable for the playoffs. SDSU and USD have far more than 6 DI wins. There is no little difference in quality of oppenet when playing a quality DII team vs PL or Big South/OVC/Pat, MEAC, SWAC, NEC teams in general. Have any of you tried to watch a NEC or PL game. It is my understanding that all members get spliced game film to review on a weekly basis. They are watching all of the games. NOTE: At one point, I believe that DII wins counted a 1/2 win toward eligiablitiliy. Otherwise, opponets are evaluated the same. The Tiers of FCS: MVFC/Big Sky (2 of 14) - MVFC very similiar to a number of G5 conferences. Big drop to what is the Avg FCS conferences (6/14) - CAA, United, Southern, Ivy, Southland and Big South. Massive drop - DII and lower - (6/14 43% of FCS) Pat, MEAC, SWAC E/W, NEC and PL Here are the Sargin Conference Rantings. 7 SUN BELT EAST (A) = 65.28 64.95 ( 7) 7 64.95 ( 7) 8 MOUNTAIN WEST (A) = 63.02 63.95 ( 8) 12 63.95 ( 8) 9 AMERICAN ATHLETIC (A) = 62.90 62.89 ( 9) 14 62.89 ( 9) 10 SUN BELT WEST (A) = 62.23 61.88 ( 10) 7 61.88 ( 10) 11 MAC (A) = 57.73 57.40 ( 11) 12 57.40 ( 11) 12 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 56.22 56.79 ( 12) 10 56.79 ( 12) 13 CONF-USA (A) = 55.72 55.93 ( 13) 10 55.93 ( 13) 14 I-AA=>I-A (Aa)= 55.70 55.70 ( 14) 2 55.70 ( 14) 15 BIG SKY (AA)= 52.34 52.24 ( 15) 12 52.24 ( 15) The drop off is steep at this point 16 COASTAL (AA)= 47.50 46.93 ( 16) 15 46.93 ( 16) 17 UNITED ATHLETIC (AA)= 47.25 46.73 ( 17) 9 46.73 ( 17) 18 SOUTHERN (AA)= 46.45 46.38 ( 18) 9 46.38 ( 18) 19 IVY LEAGUE (AA)= 46.34 46.32 ( 19) 8 46.32 ( 19) 20 SOUTHLAND (AA)= 45.77 44.93 ( 21) 9 44.93 ( 21) 21 BIG SOUTH/OVC (AA)= 44.72 44.93 ( 20) 9 44.93 ( 20) Insert any number of DII conferences at this point. If not higher 22 PATRIOT (AA)= 40.73 41.04 ( 22) 7 41.04 ( 22) 23 MEAC (AA)= 39.30 39.67 ( 23) 6 39.67 ( 23) 24 SWAC-EAST (AA)= 38.73 38.52 ( 25) 6 38.52 ( 25) 25 I-AA IND. (AA)= 38.65 38.65 ( 24) 2 38.65 ( 24) 26 NORTHEAST (AA)= 36.71 36.58 ( 26) 8 36.58 ( 26) 27 SWAC-WEST (AA)= 35.88 35.22 ( 27) 6 35.22 ( 27) 28 PIONEER (AA)= 35.18 34.59 ( 28) 11 34.59 ( 28) Not that there is technically a big difference from some D2 teams and the !@#!$ FCS teams, the main thing is the fact that teams know how D2 games can affect them for seeding, it isn’t something new. NDSU non-conference ended up looking better than it usually does with Tennessee State and East Tennessee State both having solid seasons. Edited November 25, 2024 by F'n Hawks Quote
Shawn-O Posted November 25, 2024 Posted November 25, 2024 I actually think the committee got it right. USD’s schedule dropped them to #4. That leaves the xDSU’s. The head-to-head in Fargo needs to mean something, right? 1 Quote
Yote 53 Posted November 25, 2024 Posted November 25, 2024 Regarding SOS, some people are like "you should have known better than to schedule..." Well, what is a school supposed to do when they get faced with a late cancellation and can't find a replacement game? We played Northern in week zero on a Thursday night before Labor Day because we couldn't find anything else. I believe SDSU had the same situation with Augie. We both just tried to make the best of it by playing a regional school. The alternative was just not playing at all. What exactly was USD supposed to do about the Portland State situation? They cancelled the game because of whooping cough. We were there and ready to play. The game should have been a forfeit, though I don't think the committee would have given any weight to that anyway. I think the issue for most USD fans is we went into that game a 1 v 4 matchup. We came out of that matchup with a win and the seedings ended up 2 & 4. We got absolutely no credit for winning, but would have been punished and dropped maybe to 8 or 9, for losing. While NDSU did not get punished at all for a loss. There is no difference between a 1 & 2 seed in these playoffs. Either one gets you a home semifinal. In the end, most USD fans are fine with a 4 seed. If we can't be #2 with a home semifinal game, then #4 and going to MSU is preferable than being the #3 and having to play either of the SU's again on the road. Rather see some new meat than fight another battle with a conference opponent. Seems like every year we had previously been in the playoffs it turned into a MVFC tournament. Playing a bunch of non-MVFC schools is preferable in the playoffs. Quote
wheelsup Posted November 25, 2024 Posted November 25, 2024 1 hour ago, Bison06 said: How would you have ranked them? USD #2, SDSU #3, NDSU #4? By your logic then, how do you put SDSU ahead of NDSU? And how do you put USD ahead of SDSU? This is really splitting hairs as Ive said multiple times but I would have done it in the order that you listed (USD, SDSU, NDSU). The 3 teams USD, NDSU, SDSU are all very close.. I would even throw UC Davis in there as well as 4 teams that all have pretty much the same resume and a great argument for the #2 seed. Personally, I dont understand leaving USD as the #4 seed after they beat the #1 seed.. that just doesnt make sense to me. Its not like they were the #20.. They moved up 0 spots after beating the #1 seed. My argument (again its super close).. they were 1, 3, 4 heading into the weekend.. 2,3 and 4 all win the last weekend of the year.. 2 moves up to 1.. 4 jumps 3 based on the magnitude of win and how close the 3 versus 4 game was (OT) and based on the head to head game (4 versus 1) literally the day before, USD has to be higher than NDSU. If you swapped your favorite team into the #4 seed heading into that game... every single one of us would say the #4 should now be #2.. NDSU and SDSU are getting credit for name recognition/previous years. This hair splitting about strength of schedule boarders on a discussion about quality losses.. (this is just my opinion) Quote
Bison06 Posted November 25, 2024 Posted November 25, 2024 58 minutes ago, wheelsup said: This is really splitting hairs as Ive said multiple times but I would have done it in the order that you listed (USD, SDSU, NDSU). The 3 teams USD, NDSU, SDSU are all very close.. I would even throw UC Davis in there as well as 4 teams that all have pretty much the same resume and a great argument for the #2 seed. Personally, I dont understand leaving USD as the #4 seed after they beat the #1 seed.. that just doesnt make sense to me. Its not like they were the #20.. They moved up 0 spots after beating the #1 seed. My argument (again its super close).. they were 1, 3, 4 heading into the weekend.. 2,3 and 4 all win the last weekend of the year.. 2 moves up to 1.. 4 jumps 3 based on the magnitude of win and how close the 3 versus 4 game was (OT) and based on the head to head game (4 versus 1) literally the day before, USD has to be higher than NDSU. If you swapped your favorite team into the #4 seed heading into that game... every single one of us would say the #4 should now be #2.. NDSU and SDSU are getting credit for name recognition/previous years. This hair splitting about strength of schedule boarders on a discussion about quality losses.. (this is just my opinion) I think you could put those three teams in any order and could’ve justified it. Being as objective as I can be, I still think NDSU has the best claim to the #2 seed given their entire body of work. USD’s only win against a playoff team was Saturday. NDSU was 3-1 against playoff teams. As far as I’m aware there is no consideration given for recency of win/loss. We could go round and round all day, but as I said, they could have put them in any order and made a good argument for that order. edit:USD also beat Drake, so they are 2-1 against playoff teams. Quote
siouxweet Posted November 25, 2024 Posted November 25, 2024 1 hour ago, Yote 53 said: Regarding SOS, some people are like "you should have known better than to schedule..." Well, what is a school supposed to do when they get faced with a late cancellation and can't find a replacement game? We played Northern in week zero on a Thursday night before Labor Day because we couldn't find anything else. I believe SDSU had the same situation with Augie. We both just tried to make the best of it by playing a regional school. The alternative was just not playing at all. What exactly was USD supposed to do about the Portland State situation? They cancelled the game because of whooping cough. We were there and ready to play. The game should have been a forfeit, though I don't think the committee would have given any weight to that anyway. I think the issue for most USD fans is we went into that game a 1 v 4 matchup. We came out of that matchup with a win and the seedings ended up 2 & 4. We got absolutely no credit for winning, but would have been punished and dropped maybe to 8 or 9, for losing. While NDSU did not get punished at all for a loss. There is no difference between a 1 & 2 seed in these playoffs. Either one gets you a home semifinal. In the end, most USD fans are fine with a 4 seed. If we can't be #2 with a home semifinal game, then #4 and going to MSU is preferable than being the #3 and having to play either of the SU's again on the road. Rather see some new meat than fight another battle with a conference opponent. Seems like every year we had previously been in the playoffs it turned into a MVFC tournament. Playing a bunch of non-MVFC schools is preferable in the playoffs. I don't think you would have fallen to 8 or 9 if you lost. Maybe 5 or just stayed at 4 as well. I also don't think going to Bozeman for a semifinal would be any easier than a trip to Fargo or Brookings. Quote
FargoBison Posted November 25, 2024 Posted November 25, 2024 I would have been fine if they used Sagarin or Massey and put NDSU at #3. Sagarin is what gave SDSU the AQ, that said you can't use that metric for SDSU and then something different for NDSU and USD which is what some are suggesting. USD's schedule was a step below NDSU and SDSU, maybe Augie screwed SDSU but I would take Augie to beat the Utah Tech team that bailed on SDSU which is why the game happened in the first place. That said, I don't think the committee even really considers DII games, much less the strength of your DII opponent. Quote
Johnny Five Posted November 25, 2024 Posted November 25, 2024 Seedings were done to a tee between the 3 teams. Head to head gets tossed out, the D2s were the obvious deciding factor. Like it or not we all knew that going into the season. That being said, I think SDSU will come out of that side of the bracket. Quote
wheelsup Posted November 25, 2024 Posted November 25, 2024 52 minutes ago, Johnny Five said: Seedings were done to a tee between the 3 teams. Head to head gets tossed out, the D2s were the obvious deciding factor. Like it or not we all knew that going into the season. That being said, I think SDSU will come out of that side of the bracket. I never bet against the bison at home.. best home field advantage in fcs Quote
siouxweet Posted November 25, 2024 Posted November 25, 2024 Must be nice to be a fan of a program where the biggest question is what top 4 seed is appropriate or deserved unlike the mess in Grand Forks. 1 Quote
bison73 Posted November 25, 2024 Posted November 25, 2024 6 hours ago, wheelsup said: they lost their last regular season game to a team that is very close. The resumes are very close... I would get the point if you were talking about Illinois State resume but USD, SDSU and NDSU resumes are very close. If the shoe was on the other foot the bison fans would be screaming about how unfair it is... I remember when head to head used to be a pretty key criteria.. We beat SDSU heads up. SDSU beat USD. Quote
FSSD Posted November 26, 2024 Posted November 26, 2024 10 hours ago, Bison06 said: I appreciate the work your putting in here to make your point. When three teams have essentially the same resume and have all beaten each other, how would you propose they be separated by the committee? We’re definitely splitting hairs, but NDSU in my mind had a clear advantage in SoS and apparently the committee saw it the same way. It doesn’t matter how good the DII teams are, they are a lower level and are viewed as such when it comes time for playoff seeding. It’s really as simple as that. What was agreed upon by the conference? Sagarin, if all teams being concidered for the seed are MVFC schools - why let the failed ex-HR Executive with a degree in Divinty who has never played the game decide!?!? I mean they know best, right. NO. Quote
FSSD Posted November 26, 2024 Posted November 26, 2024 10 hours ago, F'n Hawks said: Not that there is technically a big difference from some D2 teams and the !@#!$ FCS teams, the main thing is the fact that teams know how D2 games can affect them for seeding, it isn’t something new. NDSU non-conference ended up looking better than it usually does with Tennessee State and East Tennessee State both having solid seasons. Seriously you are trashing D2 and pimp'n those schedules. Have you looked at the Ten St and ETSU schedules.. Here are TSU wins: 127 (+20), 125 (+13), 100 (+4), 69 (+4), 83 (+24), 105 (+13), 89 (+25), 72 (+3), 27 (+7) - that is one win in the top 70. It would have been a recieving votes team. Here are ETSU wins: 107 (+7), 26 (+3), 55 (+17), 58 (+3), 62 (+17), and something called UVA-Wise - that is one win in the top 50. It would have been a recieving votes team. NDSU is bragging about the nonconference - If you watched the ETSU game, they should have lost. Quote
F'n Hawks Posted November 26, 2024 Posted November 26, 2024 5 minutes ago, FSSD said: Seriously you are trashing D2 and pimp'n those schedules. Have you looked at the Ten St and ETSU schedules.. Here are TSU wins: 127 (+20), 125 (+13), 100 (+4), 69 (+4), 83 (+24), 105 (+13), 89 (+25), 72 (+3), 27 (+7) - that is one win in the top 70. It would have been a recieving votes team. Here are ETSU wins: 107 (+7), 26 (+3), 55 (+17), 58 (+3), 62 (+17), and something called UVA-Wise - that is one win in the top 50. It would have been a recieving votes team. NDSU is bragging about the nonconference - If you watched the ETSU game, they should have lost. Again, I’m not talking about the talent level. Augustana is probably pretty close to a lot of lower tier FCS teams. It’s unfortunate that they had to play D2 teams, and I think it wasn’t SDSU or USD first choice as teams bailed on them. Right or wrong the committee has always looked at the number of D1 wins as a method of evaluation for these teams. Quote
wheelsup Posted November 26, 2024 Posted November 26, 2024 5 hours ago, bison73 said: We beat SDSU heads up. SDSU beat USD. make sure you ignore the pertinent fact where you lost to USD in the last game of the year.. I guess it was a quality loss. 1 Quote
FSSD Posted November 26, 2024 Posted November 26, 2024 10 hours ago, Yote 53 said: Regarding SOS, some people are like "you should have known better than to schedule..." Well, what is a school supposed to do when they get faced with a late cancellation and can't find a replacement game? We played Northern in week zero on a Thursday night before Labor Day because we couldn't find anything else. I believe SDSU had the same situation with Augie. We both just tried to make the best of it by playing a regional school. The alternative was just not playing at all. What exactly was USD supposed to do about the Portland State situation? They cancelled the game because of whooping cough. We were there and ready to play. The game should have been a forfeit, though I don't think the committee would have given any weight to that anyway. I think the issue for most USD fans is we went into that game a 1 v 4 matchup. We came out of that matchup with a win and the seedings ended up 2 & 4. We got absolutely no credit for winning, but would have been punished and dropped maybe to 8 or 9, for losing. While NDSU did not get punished at all for a loss. There is no difference between a 1 & 2 seed in these playoffs. Either one gets you a home semifinal. In the end, most USD fans are fine with a 4 seed. If we can't be #2 with a home semifinal game, then #4 and going to MSU is preferable than being the #3 and having to play either of the SU's again on the road. Rather see some new meat than fight another battle with a conference opponent. Seems like every year we had previously been in the playoffs it turned into a MVFC tournament. Playing a bunch of non-MVFC schools is preferable in the playoffs. You nailed it - if USD couldn't get #2 - they got the best possible out come. It is going to come down to Mellott vs USD LBs. Are the yotes healthy at LB? Quote
siouxweet Posted November 26, 2024 Posted November 26, 2024 1 hour ago, FSSD said: Seriously you are trashing D2 and pimp'n those schedules. Have you looked at the Ten St and ETSU schedules.. Here are TSU wins: 127 (+20), 125 (+13), 100 (+4), 69 (+4), 83 (+24), 105 (+13), 89 (+25), 72 (+3), 27 (+7) - that is one win in the top 70. It would have been a recieving votes team. Here are ETSU wins: 107 (+7), 26 (+3), 55 (+17), 58 (+3), 62 (+17), and something called UVA-Wise - that is one win in the top 50. It would have been a recieving votes team. NDSU is bragging about the nonconference - If you watched the ETSU game, they should have lost. By that last statement USD should have lost on Saturday then. Quote
FSSD Posted November 26, 2024 Posted November 26, 2024 1 hour ago, siouxweet said: By that last statement USD should have lost on Saturday then. I think your missing USD vs NDSU was #1 vs #4... the other was #2 vs unranked. It shouldn't have been close. The #1 vs #4 is expected to be close. That is the difference. Quote
The Sicatoka Posted November 26, 2024 Author Posted November 26, 2024 16 hours ago, bison73 said: We beat SDSU heads up. SDSU beat USD. And USD beat NDSU. Classic roundabout. Quote
nd1sufan Posted November 26, 2024 Posted November 26, 2024 12 hours ago, FSSD said: You nailed it - if USD couldn't get #2 - they got the best possible out come. It is going to come down to Mellott vs USD LBs. Are the yotes healthy at LB? It’s gonna come down to can Montana State stop the RB Thies. The USD QB is too soft to play in the cold. If he gets pressured at all and sacked he will fold like a tent. 1 Quote
geaux_sioux Posted November 26, 2024 Posted November 26, 2024 1 hour ago, The Sicatoka said: And USD beat NDSU. Classic roundabout. Home team won a tight one in each? Then you look at other games. NDSU wins that clearly. 2 Quote
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